How composite indicators of innovation can influence technology policy decision?

Based on the report for Project III of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment and prepared for the Winter School that took place at Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Caparica Campus on the 6th and 7th of December 2010.

Probability functions to build composite indicators: a methodology to measure environmental impacts of genetically modified crops

There is an on-going debate on the environmental effects of genetically modified crops to which this paper aims to contribute. First, data on environmental impacts of genetically modified (GM) and conventional crops are collected from peer-reviewed journals, and secondly an analysis is conducted in order to examine which crop type is less harmful for the environment. Published data on environmental impacts are measured using an array of indicators, and their analysis requires their normalisation and aggregation. Taking advantage of composite indicators literature, this paper builds composite indicators to measure the impact of GM and conventional crops in three dimensions: (1) non-target key species richness, (2) pesticide use, and (3) aggregated environmental impact. The comparison between the three composite indicators for both crop types allows us to establish not only a ranking to elucidate which crop is more convenient for the environment but the probability that one crop type outperforms the other from an environmental perspective. Results show that GM crops tend to cause lower environmental impacts than conventional crops for the analysed indicators.

Composite Indicators for the Family Change: ‘Familism' vs ‘Individualism' in the International Context

The aim of this paper is to propose a composite indicator to measure ‘familism’, conformed by two main dimensions: values on one hand (duty to take care of the family, importance of the family, sacrifices for the family...) and behaviours, on the other (predominance of married couples instead of cohabitant couples, high frequency of contact among members, family support…). In contrast to this idea of ‘familism’ we find that of individualism, that defends the independence of family members, tolerance to new family models, cohabitation instead of marriage,… , that implies less frequency of interaction among relatives and more governmental intervention towards children and elderly care. We observe that a higher degree of ‘familism’ does not always match with a lower degree of individualism when both dimensions, attitudes and behaviours, are considered. For instance, we find countries which are individualist in values but not in behaviours (such as Spain), whilst others, such as Japan, are ‘familist’ both in values and behaviours and finally, others, such as Sweden, are individualist with regards to both perspectives. We propose two different methodological approaches to the question. First, we use microdata from the Family, Work and Gender Roles module of the International Social Survey Programme-ISSP (years 1994, 2002 and 2012), in which 45 countries have participated. Information for the three rounds is collected for 17 countries with very different family values and welfare systems (for instance, Sweden, Japan, Russia, Spain, United Kingdom or the United States). From this data source, we create a first index on familism that can be related to individual sociodemographic characteristics. Second, we complete it through the inclusion of macro data (such as the divorce rate per country), in order to refine comparison at a country level by adding new variables to the previous index.

Composite Indicators for the Family Change: ‘Familism' vs ‘Individualism' in the International Context

The aim of this paper is to propose a composite indicator to measure ‘familism’, conformed by two main dimensions: values on one hand (duty to take care of the family, importance of the family, sacrifices for the family...) and behaviours, on the other (predominance of married couples instead of cohabitant couples, high frequency of contact among members, family support…). In contrast to this idea of ‘familism’ we find that of individualism, that defends the independence of family members, tolerance to new family models, cohabitation instead of marriage,… , that implies less frequency of interaction among relatives and more governmental intervention towards children and elderly care. We observe that a higher degree of ‘familism’ does not always match with a lower degree of individualism when both dimensions, attitudes and behaviours, are considered. For instance, we find countries which are individualist in values but not in behaviours (such as Spain), whilst others, such as Japan, are ‘familist’ both in values and behaviours and finally, others, such as Sweden, are individualist with regards to both perspectives. We propose two different methodological approaches to the question. First, we use microdata from the Family, Work and Gender Roles module of the International Social Survey Programme-ISSP (years 1994, 2002 and 2012), in which 45 countries have participated. Information for the three rounds is collected for 17 countries with very different family values and welfare systems (for instance, Sweden, Japan, Russia, Spain, United Kingdom or the United States). From this data source, we create a first index on familism that can be related to individual sociodemographic characteristics. Second, we complete it through the inclusion of macro data (such as the divorce rate per country), in order to refine comparison at a country level by adding new variables to the previous index.

Measuring Intermediary Determinants of Early Childhood Health: A Composite Index Comparing Colombian Departments

In recent years there has been growing interest in composite indicators as an efficient tool of analysis and a method of prioritizing policies. This paper presents a composite index of intermediary determinants of child health using a multivariate statistical approach. The index shows how specific determinants of child health vary across Colombian departments (administrative subdivisions). We used data collected from the 2010 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for 32 departments and the capital city, Bogotá. Adapting the conceptual framework of Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH), five dimensions related to child health are represented in the index: material circumstances, behavioural factors, psychosocial factors, biological factors and the health system. In order to generate the weight of the variables, and taking into account the discrete nature of the data, principal component analysis (PCA) using polychoric correlations was employed in constructing the index. From this method five principal components were selected. The index was estimated using a weighted average of the retained components. A hierarchical cluster analysis was also carried out. The results show that the biggest differences in intermediary determinants of child health are associated with health care before and during delivery.

Measuring early childhood health : a composite index comparing Colombian departments

This paper presents a composite index of early childhood health using a multivariate statistical approach. The index shows how child health varies across Colombian departments, -administrative subdivisions-. In recent years there has been growing interest in composite indicators as an efficient analysis tool and a way of prioritizing policies. These indicators not only enable multi-dimensional phenomena to be simplified but also make it easier to measure, visualize, monitor and compare a country’s performance in particular issues. We used data collected from the Colombian Demographic and Health Survey, DHS, for 32 departments and the capital city, Bogotá, in 2005 and 2010. The variables included in the index provide a measure of three dimensions related to child health: health status, health determinants and the health system. In order to generate the weight of the variables and take into account the discrete nature of the data, we employed a principal component analysis, PCA, using polychoric correlation. From this method, five principal components were selected. The index was estimated using a weighted average of the components retained. A hierarchical cluster analysis was also carried out. We observed that the departments ranking in the lowest positions are located on the Colombian periphery. They are departments with low per capita incomes and they present critical social indicators. The results suggest that the regional disparities in child health may be associated with differences in parental characteristics, household conditions and economic development levels, which makes clear the importance of context in the study of child health in Colombia.

An approximation to the digital divide among low income people in Colombia, Mexico and Perú: two composite indexes

El estudio analiza los determinantes de uso y acceso a las tecnologías de información y comunicación en personas de bajos ingresos en pasases como Colombia, México y Perú. El punto central está en analizar las diferencias entre países de acuerdo a diferentes variables socioeconómicas. Se encuentra que la variable que más explica el nivel de acceso digital es la escolaridad. De otro lado no se encuentra una brecha por género sino en Perú. Los resultados también indican que cuando solo se tienen en cuenta las tecnologías más ‘avanzadas’, las diferencias entre la población son más notorias

Fenntarthatósági szempontok beépítése a beszállító értékelésébe a DEA/CI összetett indikátorok módszere alkalmazásával (Integrating sustainability criteria in supplier evaluation with application of the method of of DEA/CI complex indicators)

A környezeti hatások rendszerint túlmutatnak egy vállalat határain, éppen ezért az ellátási lánc kontextusban a környezeti szempontok érvényesítése során fontos szerep jut a beszerzési döntéseknek is. Számos olyan példát lehetne említeni, amikor egy adott szempont szerint egy alternatíva környezetileg előnyös, de az ellátási lánc egészét nézve már környezetterhelő. A környezeti hatások ellátási lánc szinten való mérése azonban komoly kihívásokat jelent. Ezzel jelentős kutatásokat és fejlesztéseket inspirált a téma. Az egyik olyan terület, amelyben komoly kutatási eredmények születtek, az a környezeti szempontok beszállítói értékelésbe való beépítése. A kutatások ezen irányához csatlakozva a szerzők tanulmányunkban azt keresik, hogyan lehet meghatározni az egyik legáltalánosabban használt szállítóértékelési módszerben, a súlyozott pontrendszerben egy adott szemponthoz azt a súlyt, amely mellett az adott szempont már döntésbefolyásoló tényezővé válik. Ehhez a DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) összetett indikátorok (Composite Indicators, CI) módszerét alkalmazzák. A szempontok közös súlyának fontossága megállapításához a lineáris programozás elméletét használják. _____ Management decisions often have an environmental effect not just within the company, but outside as well, this is why supply chain context is highlighted in literature. Measuring environmental issues of supply decisions raise a lot of problems from methodological and practical point of view. This inspires a rapidly growing literature as a lot of studies were published focusing on how to incorporate environmental issues into supplier evaluation. This paper contributes to this stream of research as it develops a method to help weight selection. In the authors’ paper the method of Data Envelope Analysis (DEA) is used to study the extension of traditional supplier selection methods with environmental factors. The selection of the weight system can control the result of the selection process.

Monitoramento do plano de desenvolvimento da educa????o: proposta de aprimoramento do Ideb e de painel de indicadores

Nas ??ltimas duas d??cadas, tem-se observado um processo cada vez mais intenso de proposi????o de indicadores de monitoramento e avalia????o da a????o governamental, assim como de indicadores sociais gerais, dentro e fora das organiza????es p??blicas. No campo das pol??ticas educacionais, especificamente, sob os ausp??cios do Plano de Desenvolvimento da Educa????o (PDE), prop??s-se mais uma dessas medidas, o ??ndice de Desenvolvimento da Educa????o B??sica (Ideb). O objetivo deste trabalho ?? analisar seus usos, caracter??sticas e limita????es, al??m de propor medidas alternativas e complementares para acompanhar os resultados e impactos do PDE. O texto est?? organizado em cinco se????es. Na primeira se????o discute-se o papel e o uso dos indicadores no ciclo de pol??ticas p??blicas, em especial no monitoramento e avalia????o de programas. A se????o seguinte tem car??ter mais metodol??gico, tratando da constru????o de indicadores sint??ticos, seus usos e limita????es. Apresenta-se, ent??o, o Ideb e se discute suas caracter??sticas, potencialidades e restri????es para acompanhamento da agenda da pol??tica educacional. As duas ??ltimas se????es s??o dedicadas ?? apresenta????o de uma proposta de indicador alternativo ??? o Ideb+ e o Painel PIdeb+ ??? para monitoramento do PDE.

Evaluation of maternal and neonatal hospital care: quality index of completeness

OBJECTIVE Develop an index to evaluate the maternal and neonatal hospital care of the Brazilian Unified Health System.METHODS This descriptive cross-sectional study of national scope was based on the structure-process-outcome framework proposed by Donabedian and on comprehensive health care. Data from the Hospital Information System and the National Registry of Health Establishments were used. The maternal and neonatal network of Brazilian Unified Health System consisted of 3,400 hospitals that performed at least 12 deliveries in 2009 or whose number of deliveries represented 10.0% or more of the total admissions in 2009. Relevance and reliability were defined as criteria for the selection of variables. Simple and composite indicators and the index of completeness were constructed and evaluated, and the distribution of maternal and neonatal hospital care was assessed in different regions of the country.RESULTS A total of 40 variables were selected, from which 27 single indicators, five composite indicators, and the index of completeness of care were built. Composite indicators were constructed by grouping simple indicators and included the following variables: hospital size, level of complexity, delivery care practice, recommended hospital practice, and epidemiological practice. The index of completeness of care grouped the five variables and classified them in ascending order, thereby yielding five levels of completeness of maternal and neonatal hospital care: very low, low, intermediate, high, and very high. The hospital network was predominantly of small size and low complexity, with inadequate child delivery care and poor development of recommended and epidemiological practices. The index showed that more than 80.0% hospitals had a low index of completeness of care and that most qualified heath care services were concentrated in the more developed regions of the country.CONCLUSIONS The index of completeness proved to be of great value for monitoring the maternal and neonatal hospital care of Brazilian Unified Health System and indicated that the quality of health care was unsatisfactory. However, its application does not replace specific evaluations.

Socioeconomics status and quality of care in a population-based sample of swiss diabetic patients

Introduction: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with higher prevalence of diabetes and worse outcomes; it has also been shown to be associated with worse quality of care. We aimed to explore the relationship between SES and quality of care in the Swiss context. Methods: We used data from a population-based survey including 519 adult diabetic patients living in the canton of Vaud. Self-reported data on patients' and diabetes characteristics, indicators of process and outcomes of care and quality of life were collected. Dependent variables included 6 processes of care (PoC) received during the last 12 months (HbA1C, lipid, microalbuminuria, fundoscopy, feet examination and influenza vaccination) and selected clinical outcomes (blood pressure, LDL, HbA1C, diabetes-specific (ADDQoL) and generic quality of life (SF-12)). Regression analyses were performed to assess the relationship between education and income, respectively, and quality of care as measured by PoC and clinical outcomes. Adjustment was made for age, gender and comorbidities. Results: Mean age was 64.5 years, 40% were women; 19%, 56% and 25% of the patients reported primary (I), secondary (II) and tertiary (III) education. Fundoscopy was the only PoC significantly associated with education, with III education patients more likely to get the exam than those with primary education (adjOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.0-3.3). Use of composite indicators of PoC showed that compared to patients with primary education, patients with III education were more likely to receive ≥5/6 PoC (adjOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.4), and that those with II or III education were more likely to receive 4/4 PoC (adjOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0-3.3; adjOR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1-4.1, respectively). Quality of life was the only clinical outcome significantly associated with education, with II and III education patients reporting better quality of life compared to primary education patients, as measured by the ADDQoL (β 0.6, 95% CI 0.3-1.0, β 0.6, 95% CI 0.2-1.0, respectively) and the physical component score of the SF-12 (β 2.5, 95% CI 0.2-4.8, β 3.6, 95% CI 0.9-6.4, respectively). No associations were found between income and quality of care. Conclusion: Social inequalities have been demonstrated in Switzerland for global health indicators. Our results suggest that similar associations are found when considering quality of care measures in individuals with diabetes, but only for a few indicators.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Novas abordagens na avaliação e construção de rankings

Esta tese apresenta algumas abordagens ainda não exploradas na avaliação e construção de rankings, exclusivamente daqueles baseados em indicadores compostos. Para isso, três artigos foram desenvolvidos com o intuito de evoluir com uma literatura genericamente aplicável, ou seja, não restrita a contextos de rankings específicos. No primeiro desses artigos, composto por três estudos, mostrou-se que as informações percebidas pelos usuários através dos rankings nem sempre são fornecidas por eles. No segundo, o qual pode ser entendido como uma extensão do primeiro, propôs-se a criação de uma métrica – intitulada COMP – destinada a mensurar o grau de compatibilidade entre as informações percebidas pelos usuários e aquelas fornecidas pelos rankings. No terceiro artigo, independente dos dois primeiros, explorou-se o potencial da Teoria de Resposta ao Item (TRI) enquanto metodologia para a avaliação e construção de rankings. Para isso, dois estudos, o primeiro deles focado no Failed States Index (FSI) e o segundo no Index of Economic Freedom (IEF) foram desenvolvidos para mostrar as potencialidades da metodologia proposta.

Indicadores de floresta urbana a partir de imagens aéreas multiespectrais de alta resolução

The present work evaluated urban forest indicators, acquired through airborne high-resolution multiespectral images, on the quality of the urban design and its vegetative fraction, in special its trees, in nine neighborhoods of Piracicaba, SP. There were made supervised classifications for characterization of intra-urban elements and the proportions obtained, as exposed soil, tree cover, lawns, asphalt, concrete pavements and roofs. They were studied for the measurement of the urban forest in each place. These variables were related to each other, as well as with the independent variables: population density, people with more than fifteen years of study and family heads with income above twenty minimum wages, obtained through population census. Through the analysis of linear regression variables were identified for intra-urban areas evaluation. Correlations were made and linear regressions among the data obtained from the image and among the proposed indicators. Negative correlations were obtained among population density and arboreal covering and the evaluated indices, in accordance with the predicted in the literature. Composite indicators are proposed, as: the proportion between arboreous space on waterproof space (PAW) and the proportion between arboreous space on building space (PAB). It is concluded by the possibility of the use of those indicators for evaluation of the urban forest and definition of priorities in the execution of ordinances to the improvement of the urban forestry, being prioritized the application of resources in the most lacking neighborhoods.

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2010-2011: The region in the decade of the emerging economies

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