Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regime-Switching Cointegration

We develop methods for Bayesian inference in vector error correction models which are subject to a variety of switches in regime (e.g. Markov switches in regime or structural breaks). An important aspect of our approach is that we allow both the cointegrating vectors and the number of cointegrating relationships to change when the regime changes. We show how Bayesian model averaging or model selection methods can be used to deal with the high-dimensional model space that results. Our methods are used in an empirical study of the Fisher effect.

Regime-Switching Cointegration

We develop methods for Bayesian inference in vector error correction models which are subject to a variety of switches in regime (e.g. Markov switches in regime or structural breaks). An important aspect of our approach is that we allow both the cointegrating vectors and the number of cointegrating relationships to change when the regime changes. We show how Bayesian model averaging or model selection methods can be used to deal with the high-dimensional model space that results. Our methods are used in an empirical study of the Fisher e ffect.

The Time-Series Properties on Housing Prices: A Case Study of the Southern California Market

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in eight Southern California metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). First, we perform cointegration tests of the housing price indexes for the MSAs, finding seven cointegrating vectors. Thus, the evidence suggests that one common trend links the housing prices in these eight MSAs, a purchasing power parity finding for the housing prices in Southern California. Second, we perform temporal Granger causality tests revealing intertwined temporal relationships. The Santa Anna MSA leads the pack in temporally causing housing prices in six of the other seven MSAs, excluding only the San Luis Obispo MSA. The Oxnard MSA experienced the largest number of temporal effects from other MSAs, six of the seven, excluding only Los Angeles. The Santa Barbara MSA proved the most isolated in that it temporally caused housing prices in only two other MSAs (Los Angels and Oxnard) and housing prices in the Santa Anna MSA temporally caused prices in Santa Barbara. Third, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each MSA, using various vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different MSAs. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.

Foreign direct investment, exports, gross domestic product and the labor market in Puerto Rico

In this paper, a vector autorregresive model (VAR) is applied to examine the interrelationship among foreign direct investment, exports, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment rate and labor force participation rate in Puerto Rico, taking into account a time period that includes the fiscal years from 1980 to 2010 -- Four cointegrating vectors were found in the system which indicates that there is a long run relationship between the variables -- The findings suggest that consecutive increases in foreign direct investment inflows could significantly reduce the unemployment rate and increase interest in joining the labor force in Puerto Rico -- The same result also applies to increases in export levels -- The variations in Gross Domestic Product are mainly explained in the long run by the unemployment rate

Etiology of cutaneous leishmaniasis and anthropophilic vectors in Juruti, Pará State, Brazil

In a preliminary study in Juruti, a mining municipality in western Pará State, Brazil, 12 out of 21 patients suspected of presenting cutaneous leishmaniasis showed positive PCR (SSUrDNA and G6PD): Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis (9/12; 75%) and L. (V.) sp. (3/12; 25%). Entomological studies in the same location revealed the presence of 12 different phlebotomine species (n =105). One of the most common species was Lutzomyia (Psychodopygus) complexa (17%) which is both highly anthropophilic and a known vector of L. (V.) braziliensis in other regions of Pará. These preliminary findings should serve to guide future epidemiological surveillance in Juruti.

Potential vectors and hosts of rickettsia spp: epidemiological studies in the Vale do Paraíba, state of Rio de Janeiro/Brazil

FAPESP, CNPq, CAPES

A FEM procedure based on positions and unconstrained vectors applied to non-linear dynamic of 3D frames

This study presents an alternative three-dimensional geometric non-linear frame formulation based on generalized unconstrained vector and positions to solve structures and mechanisms subjected to dynamic loading. The formulation is classified as total Lagrangian with exact kinematics description. The resulting element presents warping and non-constant transverse strain modes, which guarantees locking-free behavior for the adopted three-dimensional constitutive relation, Saint-Venant-Kirchhoff, for instance. The application of generalized vectors is an alternative to the use of finite rotations and rigid triad`s formulae. Spherical and revolute joints are considered and selected dynamic and static examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and generality of the proposed technique. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Binary vectors for sense and antisense expression of arabidopsis ESTs

Our laboratory is interested in devising methods to identify functions for the vast numbers of arabidopsis genes now available. For this purpose, we have constructed a set of binary vectors that will allow the quick production of transgenic arabidopsis plants containing either sense or antisense copies of EST clones obtained from the PRL2 library. These vectors are based on the pSLJ series containing the bialophos resistance (BAR) gene that confers resistance to the herbicide BASTA. Tn addition, our vectors contain a 35S CaMV promoter-polylinker-nos terminator cassette that allows the direct cloning of arabidopsis ESTs in either antisense (pAOV and pAOV2) or sense (pSOV and pSOV2) orientation. We also describe the construction of two additional vectors conferring BASTA resistance and containing the pBluescript polylinker in both orientations inserted between the 35S CaMV promoter and nos terminator (pKMB and pSMB).

Drinfeld twists and symmetric Bethe vectors of supersymmetric fermion models

We construct the Drinfeld twists ( factorizing F-matrices) of the gl(m-n)-invariant fermion model. Completely symmetric representation of the pseudo-particle creation operators of the model are obtained in the basis provided by the F-matrix ( the F-basis). We resolve the hierarchy of the nested Bethe vectors in the F-basis for the gl(m-n) supersymmetric model.

Development of disabled, replication-defective gene transfer vectors from the Jembrana disease virus, a new infectious agent of cattle

Jembrana disease virus (JDV) is a newly isolated and characterised bovine lentivirus. It causes an acute disease in Ball cattle (Bos javanicus). which can be readily transmitted to susceptible cattle with 17% mortality. There is as yet no treatment or preventive vaccine. We have developed a gene transfer vector system based on JDV that has three components. The first of the components is a bicistronic transfer vector plasmid that was constructed to contain cis-sequences from the JDV genome, including 5 '- and 3 ' -long terminal repeats (LTRs), 0.4 kb of truncated gag and 1.1 kb of 3 ' -env, a multiple cloning site to accommodate the gene(s) of interest for transfer, and an internal ribosome entry site plus the neomycin phosphotransferase (Neo) gene cassette for antibiotic selection. The second element is a packaging plasmid that contains trans-sequences. including gag, pol. vif, tar and rev: but without the env and packaging signals. The third is a plasmid encoding the G glycoprotein of vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV-G) to supply the vector an envelope for pseudotyping. Cotransfection of 293T cells with these three plasmid components produced VSV-G pseudotyped. disabled, replication defective, bicistronic JDV vectors encoding the green fluorescent protein (EGFP) and the Neo resistance selection maker simultaneously with a titre range of (0.4-1.2) x 10(6) CFU/ml. Transduction of several replicating primary and transformed cells from cattle, primate and human sources and importantly growth-arrested cells with the JDV vectors showed high efficiency of EGFP gene transfer at 35-75%, which was stable and the expression of EGFP was long term. Furthermore, these JDV vectors were designed to suit the inclusion and expression of genes corresponding to JDV specific proteins, such as gag or env, for the development of vaccines for Jembrana disease. This strategy should also be applicable to other bovine diseases as wall. The design and construction of the JDV vector system should facilitate the study of the lentivirology and pathogenesis of the diseases associated with JDV or other bovine virus infections. To our knowledge, this is the first such vector system developed from a cattle virus. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A high efficient and consistent method for harvesting large volumes of high-titre lentiviral vectors

Lentiviral vectors pseudotyped with vesicular stomatitis virus glycoprotein (VSV-G) are emerging as the vectors of choice for in vitro and in vivo gene therapy studies. However, the current method for harvesting lentivectors relies upon ultracentrifugation at 50 000 g for 2 h. At this ultra-high speed, rotors currently in use generally have small volume capacity. Therefore, preparations of large volumes of high-titre vectors are time-consuming and laborious to perform. In the present study, viral vector supernatant harvests from vector-producing cells (VPCs) were pre-treated with various amounts of poly-L-lysine (PLL) and concentrated by low speed centrifugation. Optimal conditions were established when 0.005% of PLL (w/v) was added to vector supernatant harvests, followed by incubation for 30 min and centrifugation at 10 000 g for 2 h at 4 degreesC. Direct comparison with ultracentrifugation demonstrated that the new method consistently produced larger volumes (6 ml) of high-titre viral vector at 1 x 10(8) transduction unit (TU)/ml (from about 3000 ml of supernatant) in one round of concentration. Electron microscopic analysis showed that PLL/viral vector formed complexes, which probably facilitated easy precipitation at low-speed concentration (10 000 g), a speed which does not usually precipitate viral particles efficiently. Transfection of several cell lines in vitro and transduction in vivo in the liver with the lentivector/PLL complexes demonstrated efficient gene transfer without any significant signs of toxicity. These results suggest that the new method provides a convenient means for harvesting large volumes of high-titre lentivectors, facilitate gene therapy experiments in large animal or human gene therapy trials, in which large amounts of lentiviral vectors are a prerequisite.