Viral load versus CD4⁺ monitoring and 5-year outcomes of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive children in Southern Africa: a cohort-based modelling study.

OBJECTIVES Many paediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Southern Africa rely on CD4⁺ to monitor ART. We assessed the benefit of replacing CD4⁺ by viral load monitoring. DESIGN A mathematical modelling study. METHODS A simulation model of HIV progression over 5 years in children on ART, parameterized by data from seven South African cohorts. We simulated treatment programmes with 6-monthly CD4⁺ or 6- or 12-monthly viral load monitoring. We compared mortality, second-line ART use, immunological failure and time spent on failing ART. In further analyses, we varied the rate of virological failure, and assumed that the rate is higher with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring. RESULTS About 7% of children were predicted to die within 5 years, independent of the monitoring strategy. Compared with CD4⁺ monitoring, 12-monthly viral load monitoring reduced the 5-year risk of immunological failure from 1.6 to 1.0% and the mean time spent on failing ART from 6.6 to 3.6 months; 1% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 12% with viral load monitoring switched to second-line ART. Differences became larger when assuming higher rates of virological failure. When assuming higher virological failure rates with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring, up to 4.2% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 1.5% with viral load monitoring experienced immunological failure; the mean time spent on failing ART was 27.3 months with CD4⁺ monitoring and 6.0 months with viral load monitoring. Conclusion: Viral load monitoring did not affect 5-year mortality, but reduced time on failing ART, improved immunological response and increased switching to second-line ART.

Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Developing learning cohorts for postgraduate research degrees

Development of researchers through higher degree research studies is a high priority in most universities. Yet, research about supervision as pedagogy and models of supervision is only recently gained increasing attention. Charged with producing good researchers within very limited resources, academics are constantly looking for more efficient models of supervision for higher degree research students. A cohort model of supervision promises several efficiencies, but we argue that its success lies importantly on how well the cohort is developed specifically for higher degree research studies. We drew on a growing body of literature on higher degree research supervision to design, implement and evaluate our approach to developing a cohort of seven students enrolled in the Master of Education (Research) degree. Our approach included four provisions: initial residential workshop, development of a learning community, nourishing scholarship, and ongoing learning opportunities. The four provisions resulted in gradually developing an environment and culture that students found very supportive and nurturing. This paper is based on the findings from data collected from student evaluations in the first year of studies, feedback from the cohort’s sponsor, and our reflective notes. The evaluation substantiated the value in investing time and resources for purposely developing a cohort for higher degree research studies. Whether the cohorts are sponsored or not, universities will still need to invest time and resources for cohort development if a cohort model is intended to gain wider efficiencies in supervision of higher degree research students.

A qualitative study exploring the perceived impact of supervision training on cognitive therapy supervisor practice

Although cognitive therapy (CT) has a large empirical base, research is lacking for CT supervision and supervision training, which presents an obstacle for evidence-based practice. A pilot CT supervision training programme, based on Milne’s (2007a, 2009) evidence-based supervision and Roth and Pilling (2008) supervision competences was developed by the Northern Ireland Centre for Trauma and Transformation (NICTT), an organisation specialising in CT therapy provision and training. This study qualitatively explores CT supervisors’ perceptions of the impact the training had on their practice. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with seven participants, transcribed verbatim and analysed using Burnard’s (1991) thematic content analysis.

Findings illustrated that experienced CT supervisors perceived benefit from training and that the majority of supervisors had implemented contracts, used specific supervision models and paid more attention to supervisee learning as a result of the training. Obstacles to ensuring good supervision included the lack of reliable user-friendly evaluation tools and supervisor consultancy structures.

Recommendations are also made for future research to establish the long-term effects of supervision training and its effect on patient outcomes. Implications for future training based on adult learning principles are discussed.

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

Acoustic keyword spotting in speech with applications to data mining

Keyword Spotting is the task of detecting keywords of interest within continu- ous speech. The applications of this technology range from call centre dialogue systems to covert speech surveillance devices. Keyword spotting is particularly well suited to data mining tasks such as real-time keyword monitoring and unre- stricted vocabulary audio document indexing. However, to date, many keyword spotting approaches have su®ered from poor detection rates, high false alarm rates, or slow execution times, thus reducing their commercial viability. This work investigates the application of keyword spotting to data mining tasks. The thesis makes a number of major contributions to the ¯eld of keyword spotting. The ¯rst major contribution is the development of a novel keyword veri¯cation method named Cohort Word Veri¯cation. This method combines high level lin- guistic information with cohort-based veri¯cation techniques to obtain dramatic improvements in veri¯cation performance, in particular for the problematic short duration target word class. The second major contribution is the development of a novel audio document indexing technique named Dynamic Match Lattice Spotting. This technique aug- ments lattice-based audio indexing principles with dynamic sequence matching techniques to provide robustness to erroneous lattice realisations. The resulting algorithm obtains signi¯cant improvement in detection rate over lattice-based audio document indexing while still maintaining extremely fast search speeds. The third major contribution is the study of multiple veri¯er fusion for the task of keyword veri¯cation. The reported experiments demonstrate that substantial improvements in veri¯cation performance can be obtained through the fusion of multiple keyword veri¯ers. The research focuses on combinations of speech background model based veri¯ers and cohort word veri¯ers. The ¯nal major contribution is a comprehensive study of the e®ects of limited training data for keyword spotting. This study is performed with consideration as to how these e®ects impact the immediate development and deployment of speech technologies for non-English languages.

Retention and graduation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students in initial teacher education : a review of the literature

While the need to increase numbers of Indigenous teachers has been highlighted for many years, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander teachers are still significantly underrepresented in Australia making up less that 1% of teachers in schools. Nationally, little has changed since the 1980s when Hughes and Wilmot (1992) called for ‘1000 Indigenous teachers by 1990’. This paper reports on an initial literature review of teacher education as related to the preparation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. Alongside the scholarly literature, the review to date includes analysis of over twenty policy documents and government reports as well as web-based descriptions of historical and current models of Indigenous teacher education including both mainstream Education programs and cohort-based and community models. While the literature provides examples of successful models of Indigenous teacher education it also illuminates the longstanding and interrelated factors that continue to impact on the success or failure of teacher education for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

Prevention of Cardiometabolic Disease in Familial Hypercholesterolemia

L’hypercholestérolémie familiale (FH) est un désordre lipidique associé aux maladies cardiovasculaires les plus fréquentes. La FH est causée par des mutations dans les gènes LDLR, APOB et PCSK9. Toutefois, chez 20% des patients souffrant de FH, aucune mutation dans ces gènes n'a été détectée et ceci suggère que d’autres gènes seraient à l’origine de la FH. Actuellement, le seul traitement de la FH est une thérapie aux statines. En général les statines sont bien tolérées, cependant, une monothérapie ne permet pas d’atteindre des niveaux thérapeutiques acceptables et dans bien des cas, une thérapie combinée devient nécessaire. De plus, l’intolérance aux statines est présente dans environ 12% des patients. Dans les trois dernières décennies, la survie des patients avec la FH a augmentée de façon notoire mais on observe aussi l’apparition d’une calcification vasculaire sévère chez certains d’entre eux. Il est donc primordial de développer des nouvelles approches thérapeutiques afin de prévenir ces complications tardives. Dans cette thèse doctorat, nous présentons l’étude d’une famille avec un phénotype de FH sévère non causé par des mutations dans les gènes LDLR, APOB et PCSK9. Par des études biochimiques et par séquençage d’ADN utilisant les technologies de nouvelle génération (NextGenSeq), nous avons découvert une mutation dans le gène de l’APOE (Leu167del). Ceci nous permet de proposer le gène codant pour l’APOE comme le 4e locus responsable de la FH (FH4). Par la suite, nous avons effectué deux études de cohortes chez les patients atteints de FH. Premièrement, dans l’étude JUPITER, nous avons démontré que la rosuvastatin augmente les niveaux sanguins de la protéine PCSK9 et ceci limiterait l’efficacité du traitement aux statines. Nous avons aussi étudié l’influence du mutant naturel R46L (perte de fonction de la PCSK9) dans la réponse aux statines. Deuxièmement, nous avons examiné les effets de la perte de fonction de la PCSK9 sur le profil cardiométabolique au sein d’une population pédiatrique. Nous avons déterminé que le génotype de l’APOE est déterminant dans ce profil cardiométabolique. Enfin, nous avons étudié la calcification vasculaire chez les patients atteints de FH. Cette calcification vasculaire progresse de façon indépendante des niveaux de cholestérol sérique et n’est pas associée aux anomalies de l’homéostasie du calcium. En utilisant des modèles murins, nous avons démontré que les souris Ldlr-/- et Tg(Pcsk9) développent des calcifications vasculaires semblables à celles observées chez l’homme. De plus, nous avons confirmé l’implication de la voie de signalisation LRP5/Wnt dans la pathophysiologie de la calcification artérielle. Avec une étude interventionnelle, nous avons trouvé que l’inhibition de l’interleukine 1β (IL-1β) diminue fortement l’apparition de calcifications vasculaire dans notre modèle murin. En conclusion, nos études ont permis l’identification d’un nouveau gène impliqué dans la FH, ont démontré aussi que les statines augmentent les niveaux sériques de PCSK9 et que la perte de fonction de la PCSK9 altère le profil cardiométabolique. Enfin, nous avons établi que la calcification vasculaire représente une complication tardive chez les patients atteints de FH et que, dans notre modèle murin, la calcification vasculaire peut être retardée par l’inhibition d’IL-1β. Ces découvertes peuvent avoir d’importantes répercussions cliniques chez l’humain.

Secondary production of sandy beach macrofauna: An evaluation of predictive models

During the last three decades, several predictive models have been developed to estimate the somatic production of macroinvertebrates. Although the models have been evaluated for their ability to assess the production of macrobenthos in different marine ecosystems, these approaches have not been applied specifically to sandy beach macrofauna and may not be directly applicable to this transitional environment. Hence, in this study, a broad literature review of sandy beach macrofauna production was conducted and estimates obtained with cohort-based and size-based methods were collected. The performance of nine models in estimating the production of individual populations from the sandy beach environment, evaluated for all taxonomic groups combined and for individual groups separately, was assessed, comparing the production predicted by the models to the estimates obtained from the literature (observed production). Most of the models overestimated population production compared to observed production estimates, whether for all populations combined or more specific taxonomic groups. However, estimates by two models developed by Cusson and Bourget provided best fits to measured production, and thus represent the best alternatives to the cohort-based and size-based methods in this habitat. The consistent performance of one of these Cusson and Bourget models, which was developed for the macrobenthos of sandy substrate habitats (C&B-SS), shows that the performance of a model does not depend on whether it was developed for a specific taxonomic group. Moreover, since some widely used models (e.g., the Robertson model) show very different responses when applied to the macrofauna of different marine environments (e.g., sandy beaches and estuaries), prior evaluation of these models is essential.

p.(L576P) -KIT mutation in GIST: Favorable prognosis and sensitive to imatinib?

Exon 11 KIT mutations are found in a majority of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) and are usually predictive of response to imatinib, a KIT, PDGFRA and ABL inhibitor. Exon 11 mutations with poor sensitivity to imatinib and poor outcome can be observed on rare occasions, including p.(L576P). In silico and in vitro studies suggested a decreased binding affinity for imatinib in p.(L576P) KIT mutations, thereby offering an explanation for their poor outcome and poor response to standard therapy. These observations were further corroborated with anecdotal case reports of refractoriness or non-durable response to imatinib therapy. However, we describe the favorable response to imatinib and outcome in 5 p.(L576P)-KIT mutant GIST patients treated at a tertiary sarcoma referral center. The sensitivity of p.(L576P)-KIT mutations to imatinib, and the prognostic impact of this mutation need to be further evaluated in a larger cohort. Based on our observations, p.(L576P) mutated GISTs should be treated with standard first line imatinib therapy.

Influence d'un incitatif financier destiné aux médecins de famille sur la gestion du diabète des Néo-Brunswickois

Résumé: Problématique : En réponse à la prévalence accrue de la maladie du diabète et au fardeau économique important que représente cette maladie sur le système de santé international, des programmes incitatifs pour les maladies chroniques furent instaurés à travers le monde. Ces programmes visent à inciter les médecins à appliquer les lignes directrices chez leurs patients avec besoin complexe en vue d’améliorer la santé des patients et par la suite de réduire les coûts incombés par le système de santé. Les programmes incitatifs étant nombreux et différents d’un pays à l’autre, les études actuelles ne semblent pas s’entendre sur les répercussions de tels programmes sur la santé des patients atteints de diabète. L’objectif de cette étude est d’évaluer les retombées d’un incitatif financier sur le contrôle glycémique de la population atteinte de diabète du Nouveau-Brunswick, au Canada. Méthodes : Cette étude transversale répétée et de cohorte a été menée grâce à des bases de données administratives du Nouveau-Brunswick contenant des données sur dix ans pour 83 580 patients adultes atteints de diabète et 583 médecins de famille éligibles. La santé des patients a été évaluée au niveau du contrôle glycémique, en mesurant les valeurs moyennes d’A1C annuelles à l’aide de régressions linéaires multivariées. Afin d’évaluer si les médecins changeaient leur pratique avec l’implantation du programme incitatif, nous regardions au niveau de la probabilité de recours annuel à au moins deux tests d’A1C en utilisant des régressions logistiques multivariées. Résultats : La probabilité de recours annuel à au moins deux tests d’A1C était plus élevée dans quatre sous-groupes étudiés : les patients nouvellement diagnostiqués après l’implantation du programme avaient des cotes plus élevées comparées aux nouveaux patients avant l’implantation du programme (OR=1.23 [1.18-1.28]); les patients pour lesquels un médecin avait réclamé l’incitatif comparés aux patients pour lesquels aucun médecin n’avait réclamé l’incitatif (OR=2.73 [2.64-2.81]); les patients pour lesquels un médecin avait réclamé l’incitatif avaient des cotes plus élevées après l’implantation du programme comparé à avant (OR=1.89 [1.80-1.98]); et finalement, les patients suivis par un médecin de famille qui a déjà réclamé l’incitatif avaient des cotes 24% plus élevées (OR=1.24 [1.15-1.34]). Il n’y avait pas de différence dans les valeurs d’A1C annuelles entre les 4 sous-groupes étudiés. Conclusion : L’implantation du programme incitatif a démontré que les médecins ont une meilleure probabilité de prescrire au moins deux tests d’A1C, ce qui suggère une meilleure prise en charge des patients. Cependant, le manque de changement au niveau du contrôle glycémique du patient suggère que l’étude des répercussions de l’incitatif devra être poursuivie afin de voir si elle mène à une amélioration d’issues cliniques chez les patients.

Psychosocial, musculoskeletal and somatoform comorbidity in patients with chronic low back pain: original results from the Dutch Transition Project

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