892 resultados para Co-integration analysis
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This research investigates the spatial market integration of the Chilean wheat market in relation with its most representative international markets by using a vector error correction model (VECM) and how a price support policy, as a price band, affect it. The international market was characterized by two relevant wheat prices: PAN from Argentina and Hard Red Winter from the United States. The spatial market integration level, expressed in the error correction term (ECT), allowed concluding that there is a high integration degree among these markets with a variable influence of the price band mechanism mainly related with its estimation methodology. Moreover, this paper showed that Chile can be seen as price taker as long as the speed of its adjustment to international shocks, being these reactions faster than in the United States and Argentina. Finally, the results validated the "Law of the One Price", which assumes price equalization across all local markets in the long run.
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TITLE: The normal co-ordinate analysis, vibrational spectra and theoretical infrared intensities of some thiocarbonyl halides. AUTHOR: J. L. Brema SUPERVISOR: Dr. D. C. Moule NUMBER OF PAGES: 89 ABSTRACT: The vibrational assignment of the five-in-plane fundamental modes of CSClBr has been made on the basis of infrared gas phase and liquid Raman spectral analyses to supplement our earlier vibrational studies. Even though the one out-of-plane fundamental was not observed spectroscopically an attempt has been made to predict its frequency. The vibrational spectra contained impurity bands and the CSClBr assignment was made only after a thorough analysis of the impurities themselves. A normal co-ordinate analysis calculation was performed assuming a Urey-Bradley force field. This calculation yielded the fundamental frequencies in good agreement with those observed after refinement of the originally transferred force constants. The theoretical frequencies are the eigenvalues of the secular equation and the calculation also gave the corresponding eigenvectors in the form of the very important LLj matrix. The [l] matrix is the transfoirmation between internal co-ordinates and normal co-ordinates and it is essential for Franck-Condon calculations on electronically excited molecules and for infrared Integrated band intensity studies. Using a self-consistent molecular orbital calculation termed "complete neglect of differential overlap" (CNDO/2) , theoretical values of equilibrium bond lengths and angleswere calcuted for a series of carbonyl and thlocarbonyl molecules. From these calculations valence force field force constants were also determined but with limited success. With the CNIX)/2 method theoretical dipole moment derivatives with respect to symmetrized internal co-ordinates were calculated and the results should be useful in a correlation with experimentally determined values.
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Responding to a series of articles in sport management literature calling for more diversity in terms of areas of interest or methods, this study warns against the danger of excessively fragmenting this field of research. The works of Kuhn (1962) and Pfeffer (1993) are taken as the basis of an argument that connects convergence with scientific strength. However, being aware of the large number of counterarguments directed at this line of reasoning, a new model of convergence, which focuses on clusters of research contributions with similar areas of interest, methods, and concepts, is proposed. The existence of these clusters is determined with the help of a bibliometric analysis of publications in three sport management journals. This examination determines that there are justified reasons to be concerned about the level of convergence in the field, pointing out to a reduced ability to create large clusters of contributions in similar areas of interest.
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A study of the kinematics of the alpha-d coincidences in the (6)Li + (59)Co system at a bombarding energy of E(lab) = 29.6MeV is presented. With exclusive measurements performed over different angular intervals it is possible to identify the respective contributions of the sequential and direct projectile breakup components. The angular distributions of both breakup components are fairly well described by the Continuum-Discretized Coupled-Channels framework (CDCC). Furthermore, a careful analysis of these processes using a semiclassical approach provides information on both their lifetime and their distance of occurrence with respect to the target. Breakup to the low-lying (near-threshold) continuum is delayed, and happens at large internuclear distances. This suggests that the influence of the projectile breakup on the complete fusion process can be related essentially to the direct breakup to the (6)Li high-lying continuum spectrum.
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In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the components of energy demand. All fractional-difference parameters are positive and lower than 0.5 indicating that the series are stationary, although with mean reversion patterns slower than in the typical short-run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. As a result of the long-memory in final energy demand, the effects of temporary policy shocks will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects on final energy demand require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard, but much more limited, unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects
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In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO2 emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO2 emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks
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Avicennia marina is an important mangrove species with a wide geographical and climatic distribution which suggests that large amounts of genetic diversity are available for conservation and breeding programs. In this study we compare the informativeness of AFLPs and SSRs for assessing genetic diversity within and among individuals, populations and subspecies of A. marina in Australia. Our comparison utilized three SSR loci and three AFLP primer sets that were known to be polymorphic, and could be run in a single analysis on a capillary electrophoresis system, using different-colored fluorescent dyes. A total of 120 individuals representing six populations and three subspecies were samplcd. At the locus level, SSRs were considerably more variable than AFLPs, with a total of 52 alleles and an average heterozygosity of 0.78. Average heterozygosity for AFLPs was 0.193, but all of the 918 bands scored were polymorphic. Thus, AFLPs were considerably more efficient at revealing polymorphic loci than SSRs despite lower average heterozygosities. SSRs detected more genetic differentiation between populations (19 vs 9%) and subspecies (35 vs 11%) than AFLPs. Principal co-ordinate analysis revealed congruent patterns of genetic relationships at the individual, population and subspecific levels for both data sets. Mantel testing confirmed congruence between AFLP and SSR genetic distances among, but not within, population comparisons, indicating that the markers were segregating inde- pendently but that evolutionary groups (populations and subspecies) were similar. Three genetic criteria of importance for defining priorities for ex situ collections or in situ conservation programs (number of alleles, number of locally common alleles and number of private alleles) were correlated between the AFLP and SSR data sets. The congruence between AFLP and SSR data sets suggest that either method, or a combination, is applicable to expanded genetic studies of mangroves. The codominant nature of SSRs makes them ideal for further population-based investigations, such as mating-system analyses, for which the dominant AFLP markers are less well suited. AFLPs may be particularly useful for monitoring propagation programs and identifying duplicates within collections, since a single PCR assay can reveal many loci at once.
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Plant membrane compartments and trafficking pathways are highly complex, and are often distinct from those of animals and fungi. Progress has been made in defining trafficking in plants using transient expression systems. However, many processes require a precise understanding of plant membrane trafficking in a developmental context, and in diverse, specialized cell types. These include defense responses to pathogens, regulation of transporter accumulation in plant nutrition or polar auxin transport in development. In all of these cases a central role is played by the endosomal membrane system, which, however, is the most divergent and ill-defined aspect of plant cell compartmentation. We have designed a new vector series, and have generated a large number of stably transformed plants expressing membrane protein fusions to spectrally distinct, fluorescent tags. We selected lines with distinct subcellular localization patterns, and stable, non-toxic expression. We demonstrate the power of this multicolor 'Wave' marker set for rapid, combinatorial analysis of plant cell membrane compartments, both in live-imaging and immunoelectron microscopy. Among other findings, our systematic co-localization analysis revealed that a class of plant Rab1-homologs has a much more extended localization than was previously assumed, and also localizes to trans-Golgi/endosomal compartments. Constructs that can be transformed into any genetic background or species, as well as seeds from transgenic Arabidopsis plants, will be freely available, and will promote rapid progress in diverse areas of plant cell biology.
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The aim of this thesis is to examine stock returns as predictive indicators to macroeconomic variables in BRIC-countries, Japan, USA and euro area. We picked to represent macroeconomic variables interest rate, inflation, currency, gross domestic product and industrial production. For the beginning we examined previous studies and theory about the subject. Hypothesis of this thesis were derived from the previous studies. To conduct the results we used tests such augmented Dickey-Fuller, Engle-Granger co-integration, Granger causality and lagged distribution model. According to results stock returns do predictive macroeconomic variables and specifically changes of GDP and industrial production. There were few evidences of stock returns predictive power of inflation.
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The aim of this study is to examine the level of stock market co-movement in the BRICS countries and three major industrialized countries (Japan, UK and USA). While analyzing the interdependence and integration of markets, two subsets are examined: before (2000 – 2007) and during the global financial crisis (2007-2011). Generally, interdependence across markets is likely to increase during a highly volatile period. This is problematic because if it were true, the main benefit of international diversification would be reduced at times when it is most needed. The results reveal the dominant role of the US financial markets over the examined time period. Empirical studies of this research paper indicate that cross-market linkages have become slightly stronger during the ongoing subprime crisis than before crisis. However, results also show that an investor may obtain some international diversification benefits by investing especially in the BRICS countries despite the fact of unstable economic condition and growing globalization.
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The infrared and the Raman spectra of eSelF has been obtained for the first time and has been analysed to give the in-plane normal vibrational frequencies of the molecule, in the ground state. A normal co-ordinate analysis has been carried out for the molecules CSF2, CSClF and eSel 2 using a Urey-Bradley type of potential function and the elements of the [L] matrix elements, the distribution of the potential energy in Urey-Bradley space, and the displacement vector diagrams for the normal modes of vibration for these molecules, have been obtained. The bond for~e constants obtained through the normal co-ordinate analysis, have given some interesting results. The stretching force constant, Kes ' varies markedly with halogen substitution and the force constants KeF and Keel also vary with substitution.
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Futures trading in Commodities has three specific economic functions viz. price discovery, hedging and reduction in volatility. Natural rubber possesses all the specifications required for futures trading. Commodity futures trading in India attained momentum after the starting of national level commodity exchanges in 2003. The success of futures trading depends upon effective price risk management, price discovery and reduced volatility which in turn depends upon the volume of trading. In the case of rubber futures market, the volume of trading depends upon the extent of participation by market players like growers, dealers, manufacturers, rubber marketing co-operative societies and Rubber Producer’s Societies (RPS). The extent of participation by market players has a direct bearing on their awareness level and their perception about futures trading. In the light of the above facts and the review of literature available on rubber futures market, it is felt that a study on rubber futures market is necessary to fill the research gap, with specific focus on (1) the awareness and perception of rubber futures market participants viz. (i) rubber growers, (ii) dealers, (iii) rubber product manufacturers, (iv) rubber marketing co-operative societies and Rubber Producer’s Societies (RPS) about futures trading and (2) whether the rubber futures market is fulfilling the economic functions of futures market viz. hedging, reduction in volatility and price discovery or not. The study is confined to growers, dealers, rubber goods manufacturers, rubber marketing co-operative societies and RPS in Kerala. In order to achieve the stated objectives, the study utilized secondary data for the period from 2003 to 2013 from different published sources like bulletins, newsletters, circulars from NMCE, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Warehousing Corporation and traders. The primary data required for this study were collected from rubber growers, rubber dealers, RPS & Rubber Marketing Co-operative Societies and rubber goods manufacturers in Kerala. Data pertaining to the awareness and perception of futures trading, participation in the futures trading, use of spot and futures prices and source of price information by dealers, farmers, manufacturers and cooperative societies also were collected. Statistical tools used for analysis include percentage, standard deviation, Chi-square test, Mann – Whitney U test, Kruskal Wallis test, Augmented Dickey – Fuller test statistic, t- statistic, Granger causality test, F- statistic, Johansen co – integration test, Trace statistic and Max –Eigen statistic. The study found that 71.5 per cent of the total hedges are effective and 28.5 per cent are ineffective for the period under study. It implies that futures market in rubber reduced the impact of price risks by approximately 71.5 per cent. Further, it is observed that, on 54.4 per cent occasions, the futures market exercised a stabilizing effect on the spot market, and on 45.6 per cent occasions futures trading exercised a destabilizing effect on the spot market. It implies that elasticity of expectation of futures market in rubber has a predominant stabilizing effect on spot prices. The market, as a whole, exhibits a bias in favour of long hedges. Spot price volatility of rubber during futures suspension period is more than that of the pre suspension period and post suspension period. There is a bi-directional association-ship or bi-directional causality or pair- wise causality between spot price and futures price of rubber. From the results of the hedging efficiency, spot price volatility, and price discovery, it can be concluded that rubber futures market fulfils all the economic functions expected from a commodity futures market. Thus in India, the future of rubber futures is Bright…!!!
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El presente trabajo de grado busca evaluar el perfil del mercado de la Unión Europea y los países de la EFTA para identificar las oportunidades comerciales de Colombia, más específicamente en los siguientes países: Suiza, Noruega, Liechtenstein, Islandia, Republica Checa, Rumania y Suecia. A través de esta investigación se realizó un análisis de los 25 productos más exportados de Colombia a cada uno de los países estudiados, tomando en cuenta sus códigos arancelarios. Adicionalmente, se evaluaron las balanzas comerciales de cada uno de los países, las tendencias de las exportaciones Colombianas de los últimos años, y las posibles oportunidades de mercados teniendo en cuenta las necesidades de importaciones detalladas de cada país europeo. A partir de la información encontrada la investigación se concentró en la proveniencia exacta del departamento Colombiano que hacia las exportaciones de los 25 productos más representativos a cada uno de los países evaluados. Teniendo en cuenta esta información, se evaluó por departamento, las oportunidades y perfiles de mercado de exportación hacia Suiza, Noruega, Liechtenstein, Islandia, Republica Checa, Rumania y Suecia. Finalmente se identificaron los 10 productos más exportados de Colombia a cada uno de los países analizados, con el fin de enfocar las mejoras y potencializar las exportaciones de estos productos a los países europeos evaluados. Adicionalmente durante la investigación se realizan recomendaciones específicas por país y al final del documento se encuentran las conclusiones generales y recomendaciones principales para futuras exportaciones de Colombia a los países de la EFTA, República Checa, Rumania y Suecia.