Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

Clinical and pathological assessment of 82 patients with cardiovascular diseases undergoing autopsy at the Hospital das Clínicas of the Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu from 1988 to 1993

OBJECTIVE: To evaluated the clinical diagnostic, efficiency for basic death causes in patients dying of circulatory disease and de relative frequency of those diseases. METHODS: Analysis of medical record data of 82 patients, ages from 16 to 84 years old (68 over 40 years old), whose died of circulatory disease and had undergone necropsy in the period from 1988 to 1993 years in the University Hospital of Medicine Faculty of Botucatu-UNESP, Br. RESULTS: The functional class of patients were III or IV, in 78%, and 81.7% needed urgent hospitalization. By the clinical judgment the death were by ischemic heart disease in 32 (21 acute myocardial infarction), Chagas'disease in 12, valvopathy in 11, cardiomyopathy in 7, heart failure with no specification of cardiopathy in 11 and other causes in 9. At the necropsy the death cause was ischemic heart disease in 34 patients, valvopathy in 10, Chagas'disease in 10, cardiomyopathy in 5, and heart failure with no specification of cardiopathy in 2.The concordance taxes were in thhe same order: 94,6%, 90,0%, 83.3%, 71.4% and 28.5%. CONCLUSION: There was a great efficiency of clinical diagnosis for death cause in a general university hospital. The ischemic heart disease were the main causes of death.

Clinical and pathological assessment of 82 patients with cardiovascular diseases undergoing autopsy at the Hospital das Clínicas of the Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu from 1988 to 1993

OBJECTIVE: To evaluated the clinical diagnostic, efficiency for basic death causes in patients dying of circulatory disease and de relative frequency of those diseases. METHODS: Analysis of medical record data of 82 patients, ages from 16 to 84 years old (68 over 40 years old), whose died of circulatory disease and had undergone necropsy in the period from 1988 to 1993 years in the University Hospital of Medicine Faculty of Botucatu-UNESP, Br. RESULTS: The functional class of patients were III or IV, in 78%, and 81.7% needed urgent hospitalization. By the clinical judgment the death were by ischemic heart disease in 32 (21 acute myocardial infarction), Chagas'disease in 12, valvopathy in 11, cardiomyopathy in 7, heart failure with no specification of cardiopathy in 11 and other causes in 9. At the necropsy the death cause was ischemic heart disease in 34 patients, valvopathy in 10, Chagas'disease in 10, cardiomyopathy in 5, and heart failure with no specification of cardiopathy in 2.The concordance taxes were in thhe same order: 94,6%, 90,0%, 83.3%, 71.4% and 28.5%. CONCLUSION: There was a great efficiency of clinical diagnosis for death cause in a general university hospital. The ischemic heart disease were the main causes of death.

Clinical and Microbiologic Evaluation of Chronic Leg Ulcers: A Cross-sectional Study

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed at evaluating the flora and bacterial load of chronic leg ulcers (CLUs) according to the clinical judgment of colonization or infection.DESIGN: This was an analytical and cross-sectional study.SETTING: This study was conducted in an outpatient wound care unit in the Dermatology Department of the Botucatu School of Medicine-UNESP, Brazil.PARTICIPANTS: The participants were patients with CLUs who did not use systemic antibiotics.METHODS: The ulcers were clinically divided into 3 groups: ulcers with good granulation tissue (GGT), critical colonization (CC), and infection. Secretion was collected from a 1-cm(2) area using a swab and seeded by the semiquantitative method.OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures were genus and species of the bacteria found in the cultures and result of the semiquantitative culture correlating with the clinical diagnosis of GGT, CC, and infection.MAIN RESULTS: Seventy-seven ulcers were evaluated: 27 with GGT, 29 with CC, and 21 with infection. Gram-negative bacteria were most often found in all groups (81%): Pseudomonas aeruginosa, in granulation and colonized ulcers, and Proteus mirabilis, in infected ulcers. Ulcers from the infected group showed higher bacterial load.CONCLUSIONS: The flora of CLUs was predominantly constituted by gram-negative bacteria, and P aeruginosa was the most prevalent. The bacterial load of infected ulcers was higher as compared with the others, although some ulcers with GGT also presented a high load. The interpretation of microbiologic tests based on the swab techniques and even on semiquantitative analysis requires close clinical correlation.

The missing link between clinical states and biomarkers in mental disorders

Current diagnostic definitions of psychiatric disorders based on collections of symptoms encompass very heterogeneous populations and are thus likely to yield spurious results when exploring biological correlates of mental disturbances. It has been suggested that large studies of biomarkers across diagnostic entities may yield improved clinical information. Such a view is based on the concept of assessment as a collection of symptoms devoid of any clinical judgment and interpretation. Yet, important advances have been made in recent years in clinimetrics, the science of clinical judgment. The current clinical taxonomy in psychiatry, which emphasizes reliability at the cost of clinical validity, does not include effects of comorbid conditions, timing of phenomena, rate of progression of an illness, responses to previous treatments, and other clinical distinctions that demarcate major prognostic and therapeutic differences among patients who otherwise seem to be deceptively similar since they share the same psychiatric diagnosis. Clinimetrics may provide the missing link between clinical states and biomarkers in psychiatry, building pathophysiological bridges from clinical manifestations to their neurobiological counterparts.

Quantification of the TMS-EEG response in epilepsy

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Reasons why emergency department providers do not rely on the pneumonia severity index to determine the initial site of treatment for patients with pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Many emergency department (ED) providers do not follow guideline recommendations for the use of the pneumonia severity index (PSI) to determine the initial site of treatment for patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We identified the reasons why ED providers hospitalize low-risk patients or manage higher-risk patients as outpatients. METHODS: As a part of a trial to implement a PSI-based guideline for the initial site of treatment of patients with CAP, we analyzed data for patients managed at 12 EDs allocated to a high-intensity guideline implementation strategy study arm. The guideline recommended outpatient care for low-risk patients (nonhypoxemic patients with a PSI risk classification of I, II, or III) and hospitalization for higher-risk patients (hypoxemic patients or patients with a PSI risk classification of IV or V). We asked providers who made guideline-discordant decisions on site of treatment to detail the reasons for nonadherence to guideline recommendations. RESULTS: There were 1,306 patients with CAP (689 low-risk patients and 617 higher-risk patients). Among these patients, physicians admitted 258 (37.4%) of 689 low-risk patients and treated 20 (3.2%) of 617 higher-risk patients as outpatients. The most commonly reported reasons for admitting low-risk patients were the presence of a comorbid illness (178 [71.5%] of 249 patients); a laboratory value, vital sign, or symptom that precluded ED discharge (73 patients [29.3%]); or a recommendation from a primary care or a consulting physician (48 patients [19.3%]). Higher-risk patients were most often treated as outpatients because of a recommendation by a primary care or consulting physician (6 [40.0%] of 15 patients). CONCLUSION: ED providers hospitalize many low-risk patients with CAP, most frequently for a comorbid illness. Although higher-risk patients are infrequently treated as outpatients, this decision is often based on the request of an involved physician.

Eficàcia predictiva de l’HCR-20 i del PCL:SV en contexts institucionals

L’estudi es dirigeix a avaluar la capacitat predictiva sobre la violència dels instruments de judici clínic estructurat, amb una metodologia que aporti resultats comparables a estudis de l’àmbit internacional. La investigació es va portar a terme en un hospital civil de salut mental i la mostra està composta per 114 pacients de les unitats de crònics i subaguts. A l’avaluació inicial, l’HCR-20, el PCL:SV i el Protocol 7 van ser els instruments utilitzats per a la recollida d’informació de les variables predictors. La variable depenent o resultat va ser registrada prospectivament per part de l’equip d’infermeria amb un instrument observacional de fàcil ús, el MOAS. Mitjançant índexs de correlació, càlcul de riscos relatius, i anàlisis de regressió logística i corbes ROC va ser possible conèixer que l’HCR-20 i el PCL-SV són mesures vàlides per a la predicció de la violència intrahospitalària en el curt i mig termini en una mostra espanyola de persones amb malaltia mental severa. L’HCR-20 i particularment els ítems clínics van ser els millors predictors de la violència física envers a persones i objectes. Tant la puntuació numèrica de l’HCR-20 com el judici clínic estructurat van demostrar una precisió predictiva alta i comparable a l'obtinguda amb la versió original de l'instrument. El PCL:SV va arribar una precisió predictiva moderada que va anar disminuint al llarg del seguiment. Altres factors de risc com les agressions o la ira prèvies a l’avaluació també van augmentar significativament el risc de violència durant l’any de seguiment.

Appropriate treatment for Crohn's disease: methodology and summary results of a multidisciplinary international expert panel approach--EPACT.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: For many therapeutic decisions in Crohn's disease (CD), high-grade evidence is lacking. To assist clinical decision-making, explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria were developed by an international, multidisciplinary expert panel. METHODS: 10 gastroenterologists, 3 surgeons and 2 general practitioners from 12 European countries assessed the appropriateness of therapy for CD using the RAND Appropriateness Method. Their assessment was based on the study of a recent literature review of the subject, combined with their own expert clinical judgment. Panelists rated clinical indications and treatment options using a 9-point scale (1 = extremely inappropriate; 9 = extremely appropriate). These scenarios were then discussed in detail at the panel meeting and re-rated. Median ratings and disagreement were used to aggregate ratings into three assessment categories: appropriate (A), uncertain (U) and inappropriate (I). RESULTS: 569 specific indications were rated, dealing with 9 clinical presentations: mild/moderate luminal CD (n = 104), severe CD (n = 126), steroid-dependent CD (n = 25), steroid-refractory CD (n = 37), fistulizing CD (n = 49), fibrostenotic CD (n = 35), maintenance of medical remission of CD (n = 84), maintenance of surgical remission (n = 78), drug safety in pregnancy (n = 24) and use of infliximab (n = 7). Overall, 146 indications (26%) were judged appropriate, 129 (23%) uncertain and 294 (52%) inappropriate. Frank disagreement was low (14% overall) with the greatest disagreement (54% of scenarios) being observed for treatment of steroid-refractory disease. CONCLUSIONS: Detailed explicit appropriateness criteria for the appropriate use of therapy for CD were developed for the first time by a European expert panel. Disease location, severity and previous treatments were the main factors taken into account. User-friendly access to EPACT criteria is available via an Internet site, www.epact.ch, allowing prospective evaluation and improvement of appropriateness of current CD therapy.

Physicians' estimates of the 10 year cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: an evaluation in primary care physicians in training.

To evaluate how young physicians in training perceive their patients' cardiovascular risk based on the medical charts and their clinical judgment. Cross sectional observational study. University outpatient clinic, Lausanne, Switzerland. Two hundred hypertensive patients and 50 non-hypertensive patients with at least one cardiovascular risk factor. Comparison of the absolute 10-year cardiovascular risk calculated by a computer program based on the Framingham score and adapted for physicians by the WHO/ISH with the perceived risk as assessed clinically by the physicians. Physicians underestimated the 10-year cardiovascular risk of their patients compared to that calculated with the Framingham score. Concordance between methods was 39% for hypertensive patients and 30% for non-hypertensive patients. Underestimation of cardiovascular risks for hypertensive patients was related to the fact they had a stabilized systolic blood pressure under 140 mm Hg (OR = 2.1 [1.1; 4.1]). These data show that young physicians in training often have an incorrect perception of the cardiovascular risk of their patients with a tendency to underestimate the risk. However, the calculated risk could also be slightly overestimated when applying the Framingham Heart Study model to a Swiss population. To implement a systematic evaluation of risk factors in primary care a greater emphasis should be placed on the teaching of cardiovascular risk evaluation and on the implementation of quality improvement programs.

Le trouble de l'adaptation, un diagnostic anodin ? : une étude comparative avec le trouble dépressif majeur

Résumé Le trouble de l'adaptation est un diagnostic très fréquent, mais étonnamment peu étudié et controversé. Il est, selon les études, considéré comme une forme mineure d'un trouble psychiatrique spécifique, comme une fragilité psychologique révélée par un événement stressant pour le sujet ou encore comme une forme précoce annonçant un trouble psychiatrique majeur. Ces trois points de vue ramènent en fait tous à la question de fond concernant son étiologie. L'objectif de cette étude est de montrer si le trouble de l'adaptation est un diagnostic clairement différencié dont l'existence est justifiée. Afin de tenter de répondre à cette question, il nous est apparu intéressant de comparer cette catégorie diagnostique à une autre catégorie diagnostique psychiatrique importante, le trouble dépressif majeur. Dans cette étude rétrospective nous avons sélectionné tous les patients avec un diagnostic de trouble de l'adaptation ou un trouble dépressif majeur parmi les patients hospitalisés à l'hôpital psychiatrique de Malévoz en Valais en 1993 (580). Elle est basée sur des diagnostics cliniques. Nous avons comparé leurs données socio-démographiques (âge, sexe, nationalité, état civil, activité professionnelle), leurs antécédents psychiatriques (hospitalisations antérieures, suivi psychiatrique ambulatoire, antécédents de tentamen), leurs hospitalisations ultérieures dans les 5 ans, leur hospitalisation actuelle (durée, tentamens, comorbidité) et les traitements médicamenteux prescrits (leur nombre et leur classe). Notre étude met en évidence certaines distinctions entre le trouble de l'adaptation et le trouble dépressif majeur: les patients souffrant de trouble de l'adaptation diffèrent des troubles dépressifs majeurs par le fait qu'ils sont plus fréquemment des hommes, célibataires et plus jeunes que ceux souffrant de trouble dépressif majeur; leur durée d'hospitalisation est plus courte, leur évolution entre les hospitalisations est meilleure et ils reçoivent moins de psychotropes. Nous ne pouvons cependant pas conclure à une distinction claire de ces deux catégories diagnostiques, ni que le trouble de l'adaptation n'est pas simplement lié à une moindre gravité. Nos résultats confirment par contre que ce diagnostic n'est pas non plus un diagnostic anodin (nombre élevé d'antécédents psychiatriques, de tentamens, d'hospitalisations psychiatriques ultérieures, importance des comorbidités de même que la lourdeur des traitements psychotropes prescrits (notamment la fréquence des neuroleptiques). A notre avis, les trois hypothèses étiologiques (forme mineure, trouble précoce ou fragilité psychologique spécifique révélée par un événement stressant) qui ont été évoquées peuvent être considérées comme plausibles suivant le point de vue que l'on choisit. Le diagnostic de trouble de l'adaptation révèle une des limitations de l'approche du DSM-Ill-R qui se veut athéorique. Le fait que dans sa définition même, le DSM-111-R évoque "qu'il faut souvent se référer au seul jugement clinique" le montre bien, un tel diagnostic renvoie inévitablement à une référence psychopathologique. Nous pensons qu'il est illusoire de vouloir se passer d'une telle référence qui elle seule permet d'appréhender justement la portée symbolique d'un événement donné pour un individu. Summary In this retrospective study we selected all the patients with a diagnosis of adjustment disorder (77) or major depressive disorder (125) among the patients hospitalised in the psychiatric hospital of Malevoz in Valais during the year 1993 (580). It is based on clinical diagnosis. Their social and demographic characteristics (age, sex, nationality, marital status, professional activity), their past psychiatric history (earlier psychiatric hospitalisations, ambulatory treatment and attempted suicide), their hospitalisations during the next 5 years, their index hospitalisation (length, attempted suicide, comorbidity) and their drug treatment (number and class of prescribed drugs) were compared. This survey confirms certain differences be-tween adjustment disorder and major depression disorder: patients suffering from adjustment disorder were more often men, not married, younger than those suffering from major depression; their hospitalisations were shorter with a better evolution between hospitalisations and they received less medication. However, the study does not allow to clearly distinguish between the two diagnoses or to conclude that adjustment disorder is not only a minor form of a specific psychiatric disorder. Yet it confirms that adjustment disorder is not a light diagnosis (importance of the psychiatric past, high number of past attempted suicides, rehospitalisations, number of comorbid disorders and weight of the prescribed psychotropic treatments among which neuroleptics were frequent). The three aetiological hypotheses that have been proposed (minor form of a specific disorder, specific psychological vulnerability revealed by a stress factor or precursor manifestation of a major psychiatric disorder) can still be considered as plausible. The diagnosis of adjustment disorder points to methodological limitations of the atheoretical approach of the DSM-III-R. The fact that, in its DSM-III-R definition, it is stated that the diagnosis of adjustment disorder has often to be based only on clinical judgment shows very well that such a diagnosis inevitably refers to a psychopathological theory. Indeed, the authors consider an approach without such a reference as difficult, a reference which remains the only way to appreciate accurately the symbolic weight of a given event for an individual person.

Postoperative management of adult central neurosurgical patients: systemic and neuro-monitoring.

Postoperative neurosurgical patients are at risk of developing complications. Systemic and neuro-monitoring are used to identify patients who deteriorate in order to treat the underlying cause and minimize the impact on outcome. Hypotension and hypoxia are likely to be the most frequent insults and can be detected easily with blood pressure monitoring and pulse oximetry. Repeated clinical examination, however, is probably the most important monitor in the postoperative setting. Clinical scores such as the Glasgow Coma Score and the more recently introduced FOUR Score are important tools to standardize the clinical assessment. Intracranial pressure monitoring, cerebral blood flow monitoring, electroencephalography, and brain imaging are often used postoperatively. Despite the numerous publications on this topic only few studies address the impact of postoperative monitoring on outcome. Accordingly, in most patients the decision on which monitors are to be used must be based on the patient's presentation and clinical judgment.

Skin cancer in rural workers: nursing knowledge and intervention

OBJECTIVETo identify the exposure of rural workers to the sun's ultraviolet radiation and pesticides; to identify previous cases of skin cancer; and to implement clinical and communicative nursing actions among rural workers with a previous diagnosis of skin cancer.METHODObservational-exploratory study conducted with rural workers exposed to ultraviolet radiation and pesticides in a rural area in the extreme south of Brazil. A clinical judgment and risk communication model properly adapted was used to develop interventions among workers with a previous history of skin cancer.RESULTSA total of 123 (97.7%) workers were identified under conditions of exposure to the sun's ultraviolet radiation and pesticides; seven (5.4%) were identified with a previous diagnosis of skin cancer; four (57.1%) of these presented potential skin cancer lesions.CONCLUSIONThis study's results enabled clarifying the combination of clinical knowledge and risk communication regarding skin cancer to rural workers.

On ignoring scientific evidence: The bumpy road to enlightenment

It is well accepted that people resist evidence that contradicts their beliefs.Moreover, despite their training, many scientists reject results that are inconsistent withtheir theories. This phenomenon is discussed in relation to the field of judgment anddecision making by describing four case studies. These concern findings that clinical judgment is less predictive than actuarial models; simple methods have proven superiorto more theoretically correct methods in times series forecasting; equal weighting ofvariables is often more accurate than using differential weights; and decisions cansometimes be improved by discarding relevant information. All findings relate to theapparently difficult-to-accept idea that simple models can predict complex phenomenabetter than complex ones. It is true that there is a scientific market place for ideas.However, like its economic counterpart, it is subject to inefficiencies (e.g., thinness,asymmetric information, and speculative bubbles). Unfortunately, the market is only correct in the long-run. The road to enlightenment is bumpy.

Recommendations on percutaneous coronary intervention for the reperfusion of acute ST elevation myocardial infarction

Little information is currently available from the various societies of cardiology on primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Since primary PCI is the main method of reperfusion in AMI in many centres, and since of all cardiac emergencies AMI represents the most urgent situation for PCI, recommendations based on scientific evidence and expert experience would be useful for centres practising primary PCI, or those looking to establish a primary PCI programme. To this aim, a task force for primary PCI in AMI was formed to develop a set of recommendations to complement and assist clinical judgment. This paper represents the product of their recommendations.