The STRATIFY tool and clinical judgment were poor predictors of falling in an acute hospital setting

Objective: To compare the effectiveness of the STRATIFY falls tool with nurses’ clinical judgments in predicting patient falls. Study Design and Setting: A prospective cohort study was conducted among the inpatients of an acute tertiary hospital. Participants were patients over 65 years of age admitted to any hospital unit. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the instrument and nurses’ clinical judgments in predicting falls were calculated. Results: Seven hundred and eighty-eight patients were screened and followed up during the study period. The fall prevalence was 9.2%. Of the 335 patients classified as being ‘‘at risk’’ for falling using the STRATIFY tool, 59 (17.6%) did sustain a fall (sensitivity50.82, specificity50.61, PPV50.18, NPV50.97). Nurses judged that 501 patients were at risk of falling and, of these, 60 (12.0%) fell (sensitivity50.84, specificity50.38, PPV50.12, NPV50.96). The STRATIFY tool correctly identified significantly more patients as either fallers or nonfallers than the nurses (P50.027). Conclusion: Considering the poor specificity and high rates of false-positive results for both the STRATIFY tool and nurses’ clinical judgments, we conclude that neither of these approaches are useful for screening of falls in acute hospital settings.

Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

Exploring an innovative educational approach to facilitating student nurses' clinical-reasoning skills in North Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

This study examined the effect of an educational intervention utilizing principles of cognitive apprenticeship on students’ ability to apply clinical reasoning skills within the context of a purpose-built clinical vignette. A quasi-experimental, non-equivalent control-group design was used to evaluate the effect of the educational intervention on students’ accuracy, inaccuracy and self-confidence in clinical reasoning. This study makes an important contribution to nursing education by providing evidence to understand how best to facilitate nursing students’ development of clinical reasoning.

Clinician judgment vs formal scales for predicting intracerebral hemorrhage outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of formal prognostic instruments vs subjective clinical judgment with regards to predicting functional outcome in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: This prospective observational study enrolled 121 ICH patients hospitalized at 5 US tertiary care centers. Within 24 hours of each patient's admission to the hospital, one physician and one nurse on each patient's clinical team were each asked to predict the patient's modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 3 months and to indicate whether he or she would recommend comfort measures. The admission ICH score and FUNC score, 2 prognostic scales selected for their common use in neurologic practice, were calculated for each patient. Spearman rank correlation coefficients (r) with respect to patients' actual 3-month mRS for the physician and nursing predictions were compared against the same correlation coefficients for the ICH score and FUNC score. RESULTS: The absolute value of the correlation coefficient for physician predictions with respect to actual outcome (0.75) was higher than that of either the ICH score (0.62, p = 0.057) or the FUNC score (0.56, p = 0.01). The nursing predictions of outcome (r = 0.72) also trended towards an accuracy advantage over the ICH score (p = 0.09) and FUNC score (p = 0.03). In an analysis that excluded patients for whom comfort care was recommended, the 65 available attending physician predictions retained greater accuracy (r = 0.73) than either the ICH score (r = 0.50, p = 0.02) or the FUNC score (r = 0.42, p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Early subjective clinical judgment of physicians correlates more closely with 3-month outcome after ICH than prognostic scales.

Fast and frugal models of clinical judgement in novice and expert physicians

Our objective was to study whether “compensatory” models provide better descriptions of clinical judgment than fast and frugal models, according to expertise and experience. Fifty practitioners appraised 60 vignettes describing a child with an exacerbation of asthma and rated their propensities to admit the child. Linear logistic (LL) models of their judgments were compared with a matching heuristic (MH) model that searched available cues in order of importance for a critical value indicating an admission decision. There was a small difference between the 2 models in the proportion of patients allocated correctly (admit or not-admit decisions), 91.2% and 87.8%, respectively. The proportion allocated correctly by the LL model was lower for consultants than juniors, whereas the MH model performed equally well for both. In this vignette study, neither model provided any better description of judgments made by consultants or by pediatricians compared to other grades and specialties.

Clinical and pathological assessment of 82 patients with cardiovascular diseases undergoing autopsy at the Hospital das Clínicas of the Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu from 1988 to 1993

OBJECTIVE: To evaluated the clinical diagnostic, efficiency for basic death causes in patients dying of circulatory disease and de relative frequency of those diseases. METHODS: Analysis of medical record data of 82 patients, ages from 16 to 84 years old (68 over 40 years old), whose died of circulatory disease and had undergone necropsy in the period from 1988 to 1993 years in the University Hospital of Medicine Faculty of Botucatu-UNESP, Br. RESULTS: The functional class of patients were III or IV, in 78%, and 81.7% needed urgent hospitalization. By the clinical judgment the death were by ischemic heart disease in 32 (21 acute myocardial infarction), Chagas'disease in 12, valvopathy in 11, cardiomyopathy in 7, heart failure with no specification of cardiopathy in 11 and other causes in 9. At the necropsy the death cause was ischemic heart disease in 34 patients, valvopathy in 10, Chagas'disease in 10, cardiomyopathy in 5, and heart failure with no specification of cardiopathy in 2.The concordance taxes were in thhe same order: 94,6%, 90,0%, 83.3%, 71.4% and 28.5%. CONCLUSION: There was a great efficiency of clinical diagnosis for death cause in a general university hospital. The ischemic heart disease were the main causes of death.

Clinical and Microbiologic Evaluation of Chronic Leg Ulcers: A Cross-sectional Study

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed at evaluating the flora and bacterial load of chronic leg ulcers (CLUs) according to the clinical judgment of colonization or infection.DESIGN: This was an analytical and cross-sectional study.SETTING: This study was conducted in an outpatient wound care unit in the Dermatology Department of the Botucatu School of Medicine-UNESP, Brazil.PARTICIPANTS: The participants were patients with CLUs who did not use systemic antibiotics.METHODS: The ulcers were clinically divided into 3 groups: ulcers with good granulation tissue (GGT), critical colonization (CC), and infection. Secretion was collected from a 1-cm(2) area using a swab and seeded by the semiquantitative method.OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures were genus and species of the bacteria found in the cultures and result of the semiquantitative culture correlating with the clinical diagnosis of GGT, CC, and infection.MAIN RESULTS: Seventy-seven ulcers were evaluated: 27 with GGT, 29 with CC, and 21 with infection. Gram-negative bacteria were most often found in all groups (81%): Pseudomonas aeruginosa, in granulation and colonized ulcers, and Proteus mirabilis, in infected ulcers. Ulcers from the infected group showed higher bacterial load.CONCLUSIONS: The flora of CLUs was predominantly constituted by gram-negative bacteria, and P aeruginosa was the most prevalent. The bacterial load of infected ulcers was higher as compared with the others, although some ulcers with GGT also presented a high load. The interpretation of microbiologic tests based on the swab techniques and even on semiquantitative analysis requires close clinical correlation.

The missing link between clinical states and biomarkers in mental disorders

Current diagnostic definitions of psychiatric disorders based on collections of symptoms encompass very heterogeneous populations and are thus likely to yield spurious results when exploring biological correlates of mental disturbances. It has been suggested that large studies of biomarkers across diagnostic entities may yield improved clinical information. Such a view is based on the concept of assessment as a collection of symptoms devoid of any clinical judgment and interpretation. Yet, important advances have been made in recent years in clinimetrics, the science of clinical judgment. The current clinical taxonomy in psychiatry, which emphasizes reliability at the cost of clinical validity, does not include effects of comorbid conditions, timing of phenomena, rate of progression of an illness, responses to previous treatments, and other clinical distinctions that demarcate major prognostic and therapeutic differences among patients who otherwise seem to be deceptively similar since they share the same psychiatric diagnosis. Clinimetrics may provide the missing link between clinical states and biomarkers in psychiatry, building pathophysiological bridges from clinical manifestations to their neurobiological counterparts.

Combining clinical judgement and formalised risk assessment techniques in anaesthesiology : lessons from bushfire emergency management

The underlying thinking in bushfire management has much to offer anaesthetists. Although it is imperative to develop improved methods of predicting the risk of perioperative patient morbidity and mortality, we must avoid them being used in a way that can undermine both individual clinical judgment on a case-by-case basis and the effectivenessof the methods themselves. This requires all concerned to be aware of the reliability and validity of the algorithms used to provide such predictions as well as the quality of the data upon which they are based. Like fire behaviour analysts, anaesthetists should still be free to trust their knowledge, expertise and experience. When experienced fire fighters sense a conflict between what the evidence on the ground is telling them and what a predictive fire map is saying, they use their understanding of limitations of the fire analysts’ predictions to inform their own professional judgment.

Intern underperformance is detected more frequently in emergency medicine rotations

Objective: To determine the frequency and nature of intern underperformance as documented on in-training assessment forms. Methods: A retrospective review of intern assessment forms from a 2 year period (2009–2010) was conducted at a tertiary referral hospital in Brisbane, Queensland. The frequency of interns assessed as ‘requiring substantial assistance’ and/or ‘requires further development’ on mid- or end-of-term assessment forms was determined. Forms were analysed by the clinical rotation, time of year and domain(s) of clinical practice in which underperformance was documented. Results: During 2009 and 2010 the overall documented incidence of intern underperformance was 2.4% (95% CI 1.5–3.9%). Clinical rotation in emergency medicine detected significantly more underperformance compared with other rotations (P < 0.01). Interns predominantly had difficulty with ‘clinical judgment and decision-making skills’, ‘time management skills’ and ‘teamwork and colleagues’ (62.5%, 55% and 32.5% of underperforming assessments, respectively). Time of the year did not affect frequency of underperformance. A proportion of 13.4% (95% CI 9.2–19.0%) of interns working at the institution over the study period received at least one assessment in which underperformance was documented. Seventy-six per cent of those interns who had underperformance identified by mid-term assessment successfully completed the term following remediation. Conclusion: The prevalence of underperformance among interns is low, although higher than previously suggested. Emergency medicine detects relatively more interns in difficulty than other rotations.

Rheumatologists' judgements about the efficacy of anti-TNF therapy in two neighbouring regions

Objectives: The requirement in Northern Ireland to prescribe biologic agents according to NICE/BSR guidelines and within a fixed budget has created a waiting list for treatment that has no parallel in the Republic of Ireland. The study investigated the bearing this situation may have on had on the consultants’ judgements in the respective areas.

Methods: 78 case vignettes created from the data on real patients with RA treated with biologics in the north and south of Ireland were appraised by 9 southern and 8 northern consultants who judged the clinical benefit and significance of the patients’ condition after a trial of therapy. Quantitative (Clinical Judgement Analysis) and Qualitative (Focus groups) techniques were used.

Results: Northern consultants perceived a slightly greater degree of clinical benefit after a trial of therapy than southern consultants. Judgment models of northern and southern consultants were broadly comparable. The latter tended to be more uniform in their judgments than the southern group. Focus group discussions with consultants largely validated the findings of the quantitative analysis but revealed how clinical judgment analysis might be misled by gaming strategies.

Conclusions: Despite the absence of overt rationing in the south of Ireland, as far as the judgment of therapeutic benefit from biologics was concerned, the clinical judgment policies of practitioners were very similar to those in the north. The adoption of NICE/BSR guidelines in the north may have improved the uniformity of clinical practice in Northern Ireland.

A Risky Business: An Examination of Irish Probation Officers Attitudes and Work Practices Regarding Risk Assessment

This article examines recent research on risk assessment and probation practice in Ireland and relates the findings to the ongoing debate regarding risk management practices in probation. The piece discusses current theoretical arguments on the influence of risk in criminal justice and outlines the impact of risk discourse on probation practice in Ireland and England and Wales. Using a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods, Irish probation officers’ attitudes are examined in order to highlight key issues facing probation officers when making risk decisions. These findings are compared and contrasted to other research results from England and Wales. All the conclusions identify both positive and negative consequences of adopting risk tools and point to the continued salience of clinical judgment over actuarial methods of risk assessment. It is argued that the research highlights the role of ‘resistance’ by criminal justice professionals in mediating the effects of the ‘new penology’ at the level of implementation. The idea of resistance holds particular relevance for probation practice in Ireland where professional discretion is maintained within the National Standards framework. Despite this, to date there has been an uncritical approach taken to risk assessment which may ignore the dangers of risk inflation/deflation and the need to take into account local factors in assessing risk of reoffending

Physicians' estimates of the 10 year cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: an evaluation in primary care physicians in training.

To evaluate how young physicians in training perceive their patients' cardiovascular risk based on the medical charts and their clinical judgment. Cross sectional observational study. University outpatient clinic, Lausanne, Switzerland. Two hundred hypertensive patients and 50 non-hypertensive patients with at least one cardiovascular risk factor. Comparison of the absolute 10-year cardiovascular risk calculated by a computer program based on the Framingham score and adapted for physicians by the WHO/ISH with the perceived risk as assessed clinically by the physicians. Physicians underestimated the 10-year cardiovascular risk of their patients compared to that calculated with the Framingham score. Concordance between methods was 39% for hypertensive patients and 30% for non-hypertensive patients. Underestimation of cardiovascular risks for hypertensive patients was related to the fact they had a stabilized systolic blood pressure under 140 mm Hg (OR = 2.1 [1.1; 4.1]). These data show that young physicians in training often have an incorrect perception of the cardiovascular risk of their patients with a tendency to underestimate the risk. However, the calculated risk could also be slightly overestimated when applying the Framingham Heart Study model to a Swiss population. To implement a systematic evaluation of risk factors in primary care a greater emphasis should be placed on the teaching of cardiovascular risk evaluation and on the implementation of quality improvement programs.

Perceptions de néphrologues transplanteurs et référents face à la quantification du risque immunologique global en transplantation rénale

Problématique : La pénurie d’organes qui sévit actuellement en transplantation rénale incite les chercheurs et les équipes de transplantation à trouver de nouveaux moyens afin d’en améliorer l’efficacité. Le Groupe de recherche transdisciplinaire sur les prédicteurs du risque immunologique du FRSQ travaille actuellement à mettre en place de nouveaux outils facilitant la quantification du risque immunologique global (RIG) de rejet de chaque receveur en attente d’une transplantation rénale. Le calcul du RIG s’effectuerait en fonction de facteurs scientifiques et quantifiables, soit le biologique, l’immunologique, le clinique et le psychosocial. La détermination précise du RIG pourrait faciliter la personnalisation du traitement immunosuppresseur, mais risquerait aussi d’entraîner des changements à l’actuelle méthode de sélection des patients en vue d’une transplantation. Cette sélection se baserait alors sur des critères quantifiables et scientifiques. L’utilisation de cette méthode de sélection possède plusieurs avantages, dont celui d’améliorer l’efficacité de la transplantation et de personnaliser la thérapie immunosuppressive. Malgré tout, cette approche soulève plusieurs questionnements éthiques à explorer chez les différents intervenants œuvrant en transplantation rénale quant à sa bonne utilisation. Buts de l’étude : Cette recherche vise à étudier les perceptions de néphrologues transplanteurs et référents de la province de Québec face à l’utilisation d’une méthode de sélection des patients basée sur des critères scientifiques et quantifiables issus de la médecine personnalisée. Les résultats pourront contribuer à déterminer la bonne utilisation de cette méthode et à étudier le lien de plus en plus fort entre science et médecine. Méthodes : Des entretiens semi-dirigés combinant l’emploi de courtes vignettes cliniques ont été effectués auprès de 22 néphrologues québécois (transplanteurs et référents) entre juin 2007 à juillet 2008. Le contenu des entretiens fut analysé qualitativement selon la méthode d’analyse de Miles et Huberman. Résultats : Les résultats démontrent une acceptation généralisée de cette approche. La connaissance du RIG pour chaque patient peut améliorer le traitement et la prise en charge post-greffe. Son efficacité serait supérieure à la méthode actuelle. Par contre, la possible exclusion de patients pose un important problème éthique. Cette nouvelle approche doit toutefois être validée scientifiquement et accorder une place au jugement clinique. Conclusions : La médecine personnalisée en transplantation devrait viser le meilleur intérêt du patient. Malgré l’utilisation de données scientifiques et quantifiables dans le calcul du RIG, le jugement clinique doit demeurer en place afin d’aider le médecin à prendre une décision fondée sur les données médicales, son expertise et sa connaissance du patient. Une réflexion éthique approfondie s’avère nécessaire quant à l’exclusion possible de patients et à la résolution de la tension entre l’équité et l’efficacité en transplantation rénale.