Climatic patterns and physical controls of chlorophyll-a in the Northeast Atlantic

Tese de Doutoramento, Física, 17 de Dezembro de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

A marine reservoir correction for the Houtman-Abrolhos Archipelago, East Indian Ocean, Western Australia

High-precision analysis using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was performed upon known-age Holocene and modern, pre-bomb coral samples to generate a marine reservoir age correction value (ΔR) for the Houtman-Abrolhos Archipelago (28.7°S, 113.8°E) off the Western Australian coast. The mean ΔR value calculated for the Abrolhos Islands, 54 ± 30 yr (1σ) agrees well with regional ΔR values for Leeuwin Current source waters (N-NW Australia-Java) of 60 ± 38. The Abrolhos Islands show little variation with ΔR values of the northwestern and north Australian coast, underlining the dominance of the more equilibrated western Pacific-derived waters of the Leeuwin Current over local upwelling. The Abrolhos Islands ΔR values have remained stable over the last 2896 yr cal BP, being also attributed to the Leeuwin Current and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal during this period. Expected future trends will be a strengthening of the teleconnection of the Abrolhos Islands to the climatic patterns of the equatorial Pacific via enhanced ENSO and global warming activity strengthening the Leeuwin Current. The possible effect upon the trend of future ΔR values may be to maintain similar values and an increase in stability. However, warming trends of global climate change may cause increasing dissimilarity of ΔR values due to the effects of increasing heat stress upon lower-latitude coral communities.

Eurasian Neogene large herbivorous mammals and climate

The development and changes in the distribution of herbivorous mammal communities during the Neogene is complex. The Eurasian scale environmental patterns reflect the large scale geographical and climatic patterns. The reorganization of these affect the biome distribution throughout the continent. The distribution of mammal taxa was closely associated with the distribution of biomes. In Eurasia the Neogene development of environments was twofold. The early and middle Miocene that seemed to have been advantageous for mammals was followed by drying of environments during the late Neogene. The mid-latitude drying was the main trend, and it is the combined result of the retreat of Paratethys, the uplift of Tibetan Plateau and changes in the ocean currents and temperatures. The common mammals were "driving" the evolution of mammalian communities. During the late Miocene we see the drying affecting more and more regions, and we see changes in the composition of mammalian communities.

Ecological processes and large-scale climate relationships in northern coniferous forests

Ilmasto vaikuttaa ekologisiin prosesseihin eri tasoilla. Suuren mittakaavan ilmastoprosessit, yhdessä ilmakehän ja valtamerien kanssa, säätelevät paikallisia sääilmiöitä suurilla alueilla (mantereista pallopuoliskoihin). Tämä väistöskirja pyrkii selittämään kuinka suuren mittakaavan ilmasto on vaikuttanut tiettyihin ekologisiin prosesseihin pohjoisella havumetsäalueella. Valitut prosessit olivat puiden vuosilustojen kasvu, metsäpalojen esiintyminen ja vuoristomäntykovakuoriaisen aiheuttamat puukuolemat. Suuren mittakaavan ilmaston löydettiin vaikuttaneen näiden prosessien esiintymistiheyteen, kestoon ja levinneisyyteen keskeisten sään muuttujien välityksellä hyvin laajoilla alueilla. Tutkituilla prosesseilla oli vahva yhteys laajan mittakaavan ilmastoon. Yhteys on kuitenkin ollut hyvin dynaaminen ja muuttunut 1900-luvulla ilmastonmuutoksen aiheuttaessa muutoksia suuren mittakaavan ja alueellisten ilmastoprosessien välisiin sisäisiin suhteisiin.

The Miocene of Western Asia; Fossil mammals at the crossroads of faunal provinces and climate regimes

Being at the crossroads of the Old World continents, Western Asia has a unique position through which the dispersal and migration of mammals and the interaction of faunal bioprovinces occurred. Despite its critical position, the record of Miocene mammals in Western Asia is sporadic and there are large spatial and temporal gaps between the known fossil localities. Although the development of the mammalian faunas in the Miocene of the Old World is well known and there is ample evidence for environmental shifts in this epoch, efforts toward quantification of habitat changes and development of chronofaunas based on faunal compositions were mostly neglected. Advancement of chronological, paleoclimatological, and paleogeographical reconstruction tools and techniques and increased numbers of new discoveries in recent decades have brought the need for updating and modification of our level of understanding. We under took fieldwork and systematic study of mammalian trace and body fossils from the northwestern parts of Iran along with analysis of large mammal data from the NOW database. The data analysis was used to study the provinciality, relative abundance, and distribution history of the closed- and open-adapted taxa and chronofaunas in the Miocene of the Old World and Western Asia. The provinciality analysis was carried out, using locality clustering, and the relative abundance of the closed- and open-adapted taxa was surveyed at the family level. The distribution history of the chronofaunas was studied, using faunal resemblance indices and new mapping techniques, together with humidity analysis based on mean ordinated hypsodonty. Paleoichnological studies revealed the abundance of mammalian footprints in several parts of the basins studied, which are normally not fossiliferous in terms of body fossils. The systematic study and biochronology of the newly discovered mammalian fossils in northwestern Iran indicates their close affinities with middle Turolian faunas. Large cranial remains of hipparionine horses, previously unknown in Iran and Western Asia, are among the material studied. The initiation of a new field project in the famous Maragheh locality also brings new opportunities to address questions regarding the chronology and paleoenvironment of this classical site. Provinciality analysis modified our previous level of understandings, indicating the interaction of four provinces in Western Asia. The development of these provinces was apparently due to the presence of high mountain ranges in the area, which affected the dispersal of mammals and also climatic patterns. Higher temperatures and possibly higher co2 levels in the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum apparently favored the development of the closed forested environments that supported the dominance of the closed-adapted taxa. The increased seasonality and the progressive cooling and drying of the midlatitudes toward the Late Miocene maintained the dominance of open-adapted faunas. It appears that the late Middle Miocene was the time of transition from a more forested to a less forested world. The distribution history of the closed- and open-adapted chronofaunas shows the presence of cosmopolitan and endemic faunas in Western Asia. The closed-adapted faunas, such as the Arabian chronofauna of the late Early‒early Middle Miocene, demonstrated a rapid buildup and gradual decline. The open-adapted chronofaunas, such as the Late Miocene Maraghean fauna, climaxed gradually by filling the opening environments and moving in response to changes in humidity patterns. They abruptly declined due to demise of their favored environments. The Siwalikan chronofauna of the early Late Miocene remained endemic and restricted through all its history. This study highlights the importance of field investigations and indicates that new surveys in the vast areas of Western Asia, which are poorly sampled in terms of fossil mammal localities, can still be promising. Clustering of the localities supports the consistency of formerly known patterns and augments them. Although the quantitative approach to relative abundance history of the closed- and open-adapted mammals harks back to more than half a century ago, it is a novel technique providing robust results. Tracking the history of the chronofaunas in space and time by means of new computational and illustration methods is also a new practice that can be expanded to new areas and time spans.

Dinâmica de colonização de uma planície hipersalina por espécies de mangue em Guaratiba, RJ

Alterações na frequência e amplitude das inundações pelas marés são fatores reguladores da dinâmica das florestas de mangue. Tais alterações podem estar relacionadas à elevação do nível médio relativo do mar (NMRM), que vem sendo atribuída como fator de impacto decorrente das mudanças climáticas globais atuando sobre os ecossistemas costeiros. Durante a década de 90, o Núcleo de Estudos em Manguezais da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro observou, em Guaratiba (RJ), um processo de colonização de uma planície hipersalina por espécies de mangue, e começou a monitorá-lo. Após seis anos os dados indicaram a consolidação da colonização e juntamente com o desenvolvimento de outros estudos neste sistema, a elevação do NMRM foi atribuída como principal causa deste processo. Os dados gerados por tal monitoramento, de 1998 até o ano de 2011, constituem a base de dados da presente dissertação, que teve como objetivo analisar o desenvolvimento do processo de colonização e verificar suas relações com fatores meteorológicos locais. No ano de 1998 foram demarcadas seis parcelas justapostas, no sentido floresta-planície hipersalina, até onde era percebida a presença das plantas de mangue. Todos os indivíduos foram identificados com etiquetas numeradas e tiveram suas alturas medidas ao longo de todo monitoramento, da mesma forma que novos indivíduos (recrutas). Quando recrutas eram encontrados em áreas mais distantes da floresta, novas parcelas eram incluídas no monitoramento. No ano de 2011, a colonização já havia avançado 75 m de distância da floresta e as treze parcelas monitoradas indicaram diferentes estágios sucessionais: mais próximas à floresta apresentam consolidação do processo de colonização, com redução de densidade e maior desenvolvimento estrutural; intermediárias, com altas densidades, encontra-se em fase menos avançada da colonização; mais externas caracterizam o início da colonização da área por poucos indivíduos. Notou-se, ainda, que o processo de colonização se dá por meio do estabelecimento de coortes, que demonstram variabilidade nos padrões de desenvolvimento estrutural ao longo dos anos (densidade, distribuição e taxa de crescimento), relacionada às condições ambientais distintas (padrões climatológicos). Quanto à disponibilidade hídrica (entre 1985 e 2011), Guaratiba apresentou predomínio de déficit hídrico, com tendência de amenização ao final do período. Períodos de maior disponibilidade de água no sistema coincidiram com marcação de novas parcelas, bem como com picos de recrutamento e elevadas taxas de crescimento das coortes. Assim, foi possível observar que o desenvolvimento das coortes esteve relacionado às condições de disponibilidade de espaço e luz, além de responderem aos processos meteorológicos, relacionados à disponibilidade de água na região.

The anatomy of Last Glacial Maximum climate variations in south Westland, New Zealand, derived from pollen records

We present pollen records from three sites in south Westland, New Zealand, that document past vegetation and inferred climate change between approximately 30,000 and 15,000 cal. yr BP. Detailed radiocarbon dating of the enclosing sediments at one of those sites, Galway tarn, provides a more robust chronology for the structure and timing of climate-induced vegetation change than has previously been possible in this region. The Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra, a key isochronous marker, affords a precise stratigraphic link across all three pollen records, while other tie points are provided by key pollen-stratigraphic changes which appear to be synchronous across all three sites. Collectively, the records show three episodes in which grassland, interpreted as indicating mostly cold subalpine to alpine conditions, was prevalent in lowland south Westland, separated by phases dominated by subalpine shrubs and montane-lowland trees, indicating milder interstadial conditions. Dating, expressed as a Bayesian-estimated single 'best' age followed in parentheses by younger/older bounds of the 95% confidence modelled age range, indicates that a cold stadial episode, whose onset was marked by replacement of woodland by grassland, occurred between 28,730 (29,390-28,500) and 25,470 (26,090-25,270) cal. yr BP (years before AD, 1950), prior to the deposition of the Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra. Milder interstadial conditions prevailed between 25,470 (26,090-25,270) and 24,400 (24,840-24,120) cal. yr BP and between 22,630 (22,930-22,340) and 21,980 (22,210-21,580) cal. yr BP, separated by a return to cold stadial conditions between 24,400 and 22,630 cal. yr BP. A final episode of grass-dominated vegetation, indicating cold stadial conditions, occurred from 21,980 (22,210-21,580) to 18,490 (18,670-17,950) cal. yr BP. The decline in grass pollen, indicating progressive climate amelioration, was well advanced by 17,370 (17,730-17,110) cal. yr BP, indicating that the onset of the termination in south Westland occurred sometime between ca 18,490 and ca 17,370 cal. yr BP. A similar general pattern of stadials and interstadials is seen, to varying degrees of resolution but generally with lesser chronological control, in many other paleoclimate proxy records from the New Zealand region. This highly resolved chronology of vegetation changes from southwestern New Zealand contributes to the examination of past climate variations in the southwest Pacific region. The stadial and interstadial episodes defined by south Westland pollen records represent notable climate variability during the latter part of the Last Glaciation. Similar climatic patterns recorded farther afield, for example from Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, imply that climate variations during the latter part of the Last Glaciation and the transition to the Holocene interglacial were inter-regionally extensive in the Southern Hemisphere and thus important to understand in detail and to place into a global context. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estratigrafia de dunas costeiras de Salinópolis/PA em associação com variações pluviométricas/Bragança-PA

O presente estudo foi realizado no município de Salinópolis, nas praias de Atalaia e Maçarico (PA/Brasil), com o objetivo de se obter um panorama morfo-estratigráfico das dunas costeiras e sua evolução recente na área, avaliando também as correlações com variações climáticas no Holoceno tardio. Na área de estudo foram realizados trabalhos nas dunas transversais e nas dunas parabólicas utilizando-se principalmente perfilagem geofísica com Radar de Penetração no Solo (GPR), sondagens, análises granulométricas e datações. Foi utilizado o sistema GPR digital SIR-2000 com uma antena de 200 MHz, para se obter a estratigrafia dos depósitos dunares, identificando suas fácies estratigráficas e possíveis reativações destas dunas em tempos pretéritos. Testemunhos de sedimentos foram coletados a partir de um sistema de trado manual para complementação, obtenção de material para análises e datações, especialmente nos locais onde os registros de GPR, e consequentemente a estratigrafia, se mostraram interessantes. Na Praia do Maçarico foram identificadas duas cristas de dunas frontais principais, com idades de 69 e 80 anos respectivamente com uma taxa média de progradação de 6 metros/ano. Na praia do Atalaia o cenário apresenta-se com caráter mais transgressivo, onde se observou uma feição provavelmente pleistocênica, embora a datação obtida indique uma idade de apenas 58 anos. A duna parabólica investigada nessa área revelou uma migração da ordem de 4 metros/ano, semelhante à taxa observada na praia do Maçarico e possivelmente correspondendo a fases anuais de migração, que ocorreriam durante o período seco e de ventos mais fortes. A estratigrafia das dunas na área de estudo mostra uma correspondência com as oscilações climáticas sazonais de pluviosidade e ventos, seu uso é de grande potencial para estudos climáticos.

Pollen record from sediment core M77/2_056-3 (Bay of Guayaquil, Peru)

We analyzed the pollen content of a marine core located near the bay of Guayaquil in Ecuador to document the link between sea surface temperatures (SST) and changes in rainfall regimes on the adjacent continent during the Holocene. Based on the expansion/regression of five vegetation types, we observe three successive climatic patterns. In the first phase, between 11,700 and 7700 cal yr BP, the presence of a cloud (Andean) forest in the mid altitudes and mangroves in the estuary of the Guayas Basin, were associated with a maximum in boreal summer insolation, a northernmost position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a land- sea thermal contrast, and dryness. Between 7700 and 2850 cal yr BP, the expansion of the coastal herbs and the regression of the mangrove indicate a drier climate with weak ITCZ and low ENSO variability while austral winter insolation gradually increased. The interval between 4200 and 2850 cal yr BP was marked by the coolest and driest climatic conditions of the Holocene due to the weak influence of the ITCZ and a strengthening of the Humboldt Current. After 2850 cal yr BP, high variability and amplitude of the Andean forest changes occurred when ENSO frequency and amplitude increased, indicating high variability in land-sea connections. The ITCZ reached the latitude of Guayaquil only after 2500 cal yr BP inducing the bimodal precipitation regime we observe today. Our study shows that besides insolation, the ITCZ position and ENSO frequency, changes in eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs play a major role in determining the composition of the ecosystems and the hydrological cycle of the Ecuadorian Pacific coast and the Western Cordillera in Ecuador.

Entornos termodinámicos. Una cartografía crítica en torno a la energía y la arquitectura

En los últimos años, y a la luz de los retos a los que se enfrenta la sociedad, algunas voces están urgiendo a dejar atrás los paradigmas modernos —eficiencia y rendimiento— que sustentan a las llamadas prácticas sostenibles, y están alentando a repensar, en el contexto de los cambios científicos y culturales, una agenda termodinámica y ecológica para la arquitectura. La cartografía que presenta esta tesis doctoral se debe de entender en este contexto. Alineándose con esta necesidad, se esfuerza por dar a este empeño la profundidad histórica de la que carece. De este modo, el esfuerzo por dotar a la arquitectura de una agenda de base científica, se refuerza con una discusión cultural sobre el progresivo empoderamiento de las ideas termodinámicas en la arquitectura. Esta cartografía explora la historia de las ideas termodinámicas en la arquitectura desde el principio del siglo XX hasta la actualidad. Estudia, con el paso de los sistemas en equilibrio a los alejados del equilibrio como trasfondo, como las ideas termodinámicas han ido infiltrándose gradualmente en la arquitectura. Este esfuerzo se ha planteado desde un doble objetivo. Primero, adquirir una distancia crítica respecto de las prácticas modernas, de modo que se refuerce y recalibre el armazón intelectual y las herramientas sobre las que se está apoyando esta proyecto termodinámico. Y segundo, desarrollar una aproximación proyectual sobre la que se pueda fundamentar una agenda termodinámica para la arquitectura, asunto que se aborda desde la firme creencia de que es posible una re-descripción crítica de la realidad. De acuerdo con intercambios de energía que se dan alrededor y a través de un edificio, esta cartografía se ha estructurado en tres entornos termodinámicos, que sintetizan mediante un corte transversal la variedad de intercambios de energía que se dan en la arquitectura: -Cualquier edificio, como constructo espacial y material inmerso en el medio, intercambia energía mediante un flujo bidireccional con su contexto, definiendo un primer entorno termodinámico al que se denomina atmósferas territoriales. -En el interior de los edificios, los flujos termodinámicos entre la arquitectura y su ambiente interior definen un segundo entorno termodinámico, atmósferas materiales, que explora las interacciones entre los sistemas materiales y la atmósfera interior. -El tercer entorno termodinámico, atmosferas fisiológicas, explora los intercambios de energía que se dan entre el cuerpo humano y el ambiente invisible que lo envuelve, desplazando el objeto de la arquitectura desde el marco físico hacia la interacción entre la atmósfera y los procesos somáticos y percepciones neurobiológicas de los usuarios. A través de estos tres entornos termodinámicos, esta cartografía mapea aquellos patrones climáticos que son relevantes para la arquitectura, definiendo tres situaciones espaciales y temporales sobre las que los arquitectos deben actuar. Estudiando las conexiones entre la atmósfera, la energía y la arquitectura, este mapa presenta un conjunto de ideas termodinámicas disponibles —desde los parámetros de confort definidos por la industria del aire acondicionado hasta las técnicas de acondicionamiento pasivo— que, para ser efectivas, necesitan ser evaluadas, sintetizadas y recombinadas a la luz de los retos de nuestro tiempo. El resultado es un manual que, mediando entre la arquitectura y la ciencia, y a través de este relato histórico, acorta la distancia entre la arquitectura y la termodinámica, preparando el terreno para la definición de una agenda termodinámica para el proyecto de arquitectura. A este respecto, este mapa se entiende como uno de los pasos necesarios para que la arquitectura recupere la capacidad de intervenir en la acuciante realidad a la que se enfrenta. ABSTRACT During the last five years, in the light of current challenges, several voices are urging to leave behind the modern energy paradigms —efficiency and performance— on which the so called sustainable practices are relying, and are posing the need to rethink, in the light of the scientific and cultural shifts, the thermodynamic and ecological models for architecture. The historical cartography this PhD dissertation presents aligns with this effort, providing the cultural background that this endeavor requires. The drive to ground architecture on a scientific basis needs to be complemented with a cultural discussion of the history of thermodynamic ideas in architecture. This cartography explores the history of thermodynamic ideas in architecture, from the turn of the 20th century until present day, focusing on the energy interactions between architecture and atmosphere. It surveys the evolution of thermodynamic ideas —the passage from equilibrium to far from equilibrium thermodynamics— and how these have gradually empowered within design and building practices. In doing so, it has posed a double-objective: first, to acquire a critical distance with modern practices which strengthens and recalibrates the intellectual framework and the tools in which contemporary architectural endeavors are unfolding; and second, to develop a projective approach for the development a thermodynamic agenda for architecture and atmosphere, with the firm belief that a critical re-imagination of reality is possible. According to the different systems which exchange energy across a building, the cartography has been structured in three particular thermodynamic environments, providing a synthetic cross-section of the range of thermodynamic exchanges which take place in architecture: -Buildings, as spatial and material constructs immersed in the environment, are subject to a contiuous bidirectional flow of energy with its context, defining a the first thermodynamic environment called territorial atmospheres. -Inside buildings, the thermodynamic flow between architecture and its indoor ambient defines a second thermodynamic environment, material atmospheres, which explores the energy interactions between the indoor atmosphere and its material systems. -The third thermodynamic environment, physiological atmospheres, explores the energy exchanges between the human body and the invisible environment which envelopes it, shifting design drivers from building to the interaction between the atmosphere and the somatic processes and neurobiological perceptions of users. Through these three thermodynamic environments, this cartography maps those climatic patterns which pertain to architecture, providing three situations on which designers need to take stock. Studying the connections between atmosphere, energy and architecture this map presents, not a historical paradigm shift from mechanical climate control to bioclimatic passive techniques, but a range of available thermodynamic ideas which need to be assessed, synthesized and recombined in the light of the emerging challenges of our time. The result is a manual which, mediating between architecture and science, and through this particular historical account, bridges the gap between architecture and thermodynamics, paving the way to a renewed approach to atmosphere, energy and architecture. In this regard this cartography is understood as one of the necessary steps to recuperate architecture’s lost capacity to intervene in the pressing reality of contemporary societies.

Extent and economic effect of heat loads on dairy cattle production in Australia

Objective To investigate the extent of heat load problems, caused by the combination of excessive temperature and humidity, in Holstein-Friesian cows in Australia. Also, to outline how milk production losses and consequent costs from this can be estimated and minimised. Procedures Long-term meteorological data for Australia were analysed to determine the distribution of hot conditions over space and time. Fifteen dairy production regions were identified for higher-resolution data analysis. Both the raw meteorological data and their integration into a temperature-humidity thermal index were compiled onto a computer program. This mapping software displays the distribution of climatic patterns, both Australia-wide and within the selected dairying regions. Graphical displays of the variation in historical records for 200 locations in the 15 dairying regions are also available. As a separate study, production data from research stations, on-farm trials and milk factory records were statistically analysed and correlated with the climatic indices, to estimate production losses due to hot conditions. Results Both milk yields and milk constituents declined with increases in the temperature-humidity index. The onset and rate of this decline are dependent on a number of factors, including location, level of production, adaptation, and management regime. These results have been integrated into a farm-level economic analysis for managers of dairy properties. Conclusion By considering the historical patterns of hot conditions over time and space, along with expected production losses, managers of dairy farms can now conduct an economic evaluation of investment strategies to alleviate heat loads. These strategies include the provision of sprinklers, shade structures, or combinations of these.

Európai lepkeszúnyog fajok potenciális elterjedése a 21. században

Leishmaniasis is a typical vectorial disease transmitted by Psycodidae vectors (Lutzomyans, Phlebotomus species). The worldwide observed 1,5-2 million new cases and 60,000 death caused by Leishmania parasites per year make leishmaniasis is one of the most important vectorial disease in the tropicals and warm temperate areas of the World. In the human environment dogs and cats are the most important hosts of the different leishmania agents. The different leishmania species cause symptomatically cutan or visceral disease forms, but many other type of the disease has recognised. Phlebotomus species are sensitive to climatic patterns, they require hight relative air humidity, mild winters and long and warm vegetation period, but the environmental requirements of the species naturally is not the same. Due to climate change in the near future the climate of Western and Central Europe could allow the colonisation of these highly populated areas with also the vectors and the parasites. Our aim was to analyse the environmental patterns of the current distribution area of 8 important sand flies (P. ariasi, P. perniciosus, P. perfiliewi, P. papatasi, P. tobbi, P. neglectus, P. similis and P. sergenti) using the 1960-1990 period’s climate as reference. Using climate envelope modeling we determined these climatic characters and using the REMO climate projection we created the recent and the near-future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) potential distribution area of the sand flies. The current known area of many Phlebotomus species restricted either to the western or to the eastern Mediterranean Basin. We found that their climatic requirements are could not explain their segregation, it is maybe the consequence of their evolutionary history (geographical barriers and paleoclimatic history). By the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sand flies, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2070’s in Southern Hungary. As the climate becomes drier and warmer, sand flies will occupy more and more parts of Hungary. Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.

Changing visual value of deciduous species in the climate change

The article deals with the changing visual value of deciduous species. Due to climate change, the climatic patterns found on the plants’ growing area may change. Therefore, foliage of deciduous trees changes itscolor in the fall season witha different timing and intensity. This shift can modify the functional, ornamental and ecological value of these plants in the fall season, which is of special interest in the context of landscape design. However, this effect of climate change hasn’t been examined in terms of landscape architecture yet.In the article we are looking for deciduous species that can be appropriate subjectsforresearch, we are giving suggestions for choosing the right location for a future research and proposing available resources of satellite images, that can provide the basis for evaluation of leaf coloring. We also review already existing methods for calculating the degree of fall leaf coloring.We propose a novel method of satellite image processing to evaluate the coloring of a stand. Leaf Coloring Index (LCI) shows the leaf color’s relation to the color realms. LCI is appropriate for setting up a phenological model based onclimate data in a future research. Based on future climate models, the change of the examined stand’s visual value can be predicted. The results might affect the future use of plant species in landscape architecture.