Undersowing in a northern climate: effects on spring cereal yield and risk of nitrate leaching

Disadvantages of invariable cereal cropping, concern of nutrient leaching and prices of nitrogen (N) fertilizer have all increased during last decades. An undersown crop, which grows together with a main crop and after harvest, could mitigate all those questions. The aim of this study was to develop undersowing in Finnish conditions, so that it suits for spring cereal farming as well as possible and enhances taking care of soil and environment, especially when control of N is concerned. In total, 17 plant species were undersown in spring cereals during the field experiments between 1991-1999 at four sites in South and Central Finland, but after selection, eight of them were studied more thoroughly. Two legumes, one grass species and one mixture of them were included in long-term trials in order to study annually repeated undersowing. Further, simultaneous broadcasting of seeds instead of separate undersowing was studied. Grain yield response and the capacity of the undersown crop to absorb soil N or fix N from atmosphere, and the release of N were of greatest interest. Seeding rates of undersown crops and N fertilization rates during annually repeated undersowing were also studied. Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam., IR) absorbed soil nitrate N (NO3-N) most efficiently in autumn and timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in spring. The capacity of other grass species to absorb N was low, or it was insufficient considering the negative effect on grain yield. Red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) and white clover (Trifolium repens L.) suited well in annually repeated undersowing, supplying fixed N for cereals without markedly increased risk of N leaching. Autumn oriented growth rhythm of the studied legumes was optimal for undersowing, whereas the growth rhythm of grasses was less suited but varied between species. A model of adaptive undersowing system was outlined in order to emphasize allocation of measures according needs. After defining the goal of undersowing, many decisions are to be done. When diminishing N leaching is primarily sought, a mixture of IR and timothy is advantageous. Clovers suit for replacing N fertilization, as the positive residual effect is greater than the negative effect caused by competition. A mixture of legume and non legume is a good choice when increased diversity is the main target. Seeding rate is an efficient means for adjusting competition and N effects. Broadcasting with soil covering equipment can be used to establish an undersown crop. In addition, timing and method of cover crop termination have an important role in the outcome. Continuous observing of the system is needed as for instance conditions significantly affect growth of undersown crop and on the other hand N release from crop residues may increase in long run.

In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

Climate effects and benthic-pelagic coupling in the North Sea

The North Sea is one of the most biologically productive ecosystems in the world and supports important fisheries. Climate-induced changes occurred in the pelagic ecosystems of the North Sea during the 1980s. These changes, which have been observed from phytoplankton to fish and among permanent (holoplankton) and temporary (meroplankton) plankton species, have resulted in alterations in plankton community composition and seasonality. Until now, the effects of climate-driven changes on biological linkages between pelagic and benthic ecosystems have not been examined. The present study indicates that changes in benthic organisms could have a profound effect on the trophodynamics of the pelagos. We demonstrate this by analyses of a long-term time series of North Sea plankton and sea surface temperature data. We discover that pronounced changes in the North Sea meroplankton, mainly related to an increased abundance and spatial distribution of the larvae of a benthic echinoderm, Echinocardium cordatum, result primarily from a stepwise increase in sea temperature after 1987 that has caused warmer conditions to occur earlier in the year than previously. Key stages of reproduction in E. cordatum, gametogenesis and spawning, appear to be influenced by winter and spring sea temperature and their larval development is affected by the quantity and quality of their phytoplankton food. Our analyses suggest that a new thermal regime in the North Sea in winter and spring may have benefited reproduction and survival in this benthic species. As a result, E. cordatum may be altering the trophodynamics of the summer pelagic ecosystem through competition between its larvae and holozooplankton taxa.

Assessing Climate Effects on Railway Earthworks Using MASW

Many parts of the UK’s rail network were constructed in the mid-19th century long before the advent of modern construction standards. Historic levels of low investment, poor maintenance strategies and the deleterious effects of climate change have resulted in critical elements of the rail network being at significant risk of failure. The majority of failures which have occurred over recent years have been triggered by extreme weather events. Advance assessment and remediation of earthworks is, however, significantly less costly than dealing with failures reactively. It is therefore crucial that appropriate approaches for assessment of the stability of earthworks are developed, so that repair work can be better targeted and failures avoided wherever possible. This extended abstract briefly discusses some preliminary results from an ongoing geophysical research project being carried out in order to study the impact of climate or seasonal weather variations on the stability of a century old railway embankment on the Gloucestershire Warwickshire steam railway line in Southern England.

Time-lapse monitoring of climate effects on earthworks using surface waves

The UK’s transportation network is supported by critical geotechnical assets (cuttings/embankments/dams) that require sustainable, cost-effective management, while maintaining an appropriate service level to meet social, economic, and environmental needs. Recent effects of extreme weather on these geotechnical assets have highlighted their vulnerability to climate variations. We have assessed the potential of surface wave data to portray the climate-related variations in mechanical properties of a clay-filled railway embankment. Seismic data were acquired bimonthly from July 2013 to November 2014 along the crest of a heritage railway embankment in southwest England. For each acquisition, the collected data were first processed to obtain a set of Rayleigh-wave dispersion and attenuation curves, referenced to the same spatial locations. These data were then analyzed to identify a coherent trend in their spatial and temporal variability. The relevance of the observed temporal variations was also verified with respect to the experimental data uncertainties. Finally, the surface wave dispersion data sets were inverted to reconstruct a time-lapse model of S-wave velocity for the embankment structure, using a least-squares laterally constrained inversion scheme. A key point of the inversion process was constituted by the estimation of a suitable initial model and the selection of adequate levels of spatial regularization. The initial model and the strength of spatial smoothing were then kept constant throughout the processing of all available data sets to ensure homogeneity of the procedure and comparability among the obtained VS sections. A continuous and coherent temporal pattern of surface wave data, and consequently of the reconstructed VS models, was identified. This pattern is related to the seasonal distribution of precipitation and soil water content measured on site.

Solar induced climate effects

Solar electromagnetic radiation powers Earth’s climate system and, consequently, it is often naively assumed that changes in this solar output must be responsible for changes in Earth’s climate. However, the Sun is close to a blackbody radiator and so emits according to its surface temperature and the huge thermal time constant of the outer part of the Sun limits the variability in surface temperature and hence output. As a result, on all timescales of interest, changes in total power output are limited to small changes in effective surface temperature (associated with magnetic fields) and potential, although as yet undetected, solar radius variations. Larger variations are seen in the UV part of the spectrum which is emitted from the lower solar atmosphere (the chromosphere) and which influences Earth’s stratosphere. There is interest in“top-down” mechanisms whereby solar UV irradiance modulates stratospheric temperatures and winds which, in turn, may influence the underlying troposphere where Earth’s climate and weather reside. This contrasts with “bottom-up” effects in which the small total solar irradiance (dominated by the visible and near-IR) variations cause surface temperature changes which drive atmospheric circulations. In addition to these electromagnetic outputs, the Sun modulates energetic particle fluxes incident on the Earth. Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) are emitted by solar flares and from the shock fronts ahead of supersonic (and super-Alfvenic) ejections of material from the solar atmosphere. These SEPs enhance the destruction of polar stratospheric ozone which could be an additional form of top-down climate forcing. Even more energetic are Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs). These particles are not generated by the Sun, rather they originate at the shock fronts emanating from violent galactic events such as supernovae explosions; however, the expansion of the solar magnetic field into interplanetary space means that the Sun modulates the number of GCRs reaching Earth. These play a key role in enabling Earth’s global electric (thunderstorm) circuit and it has been proposed that they also modulate the formation of clouds. Both electromagnetic and corpuscular solar effects are known to vary over the solar magnetic cycle which is typically between 10 and 14 yrs in length (with an average close to 11 yrs). The solar magnetic field polarity at any one phase of one of these activity cycles is opposite to that at the same phase of the next cycle and this influences some phenomena, for example GCRs, which therefore show a 22 yr (“Hale”) cycle on average. Other phenomena, such as irradiance modulation, do not depend on the polarity of the magnetic field and so show only the basic 11-yr activity cycle. However, any effects on climate are much more significant for solar drifts over centennial timescales. This chapter discusses and evaluates potential effects on Earth’s climate system of variations in these solar inputs. Because of the great variety of proposed mechanisms, the wide range of timescales studied (from days to millennia) and the many debates (often triggered by the application of inadequate statistical methods), the literature on this subject is vast, complex, divergent and rapidly changing: consequently the number of references cited in this review is very large (yet still only a small fraction of the total).

Counteracting the climate effects of volcanic eruptions using short-lived greenhouse gases

A large volcanic eruption might constitute a climate emergency, significantly altering global temperature and precipitation for several years. Major future eruptions will occur, but their size or timing cannot be predicted. We show, for the first time, that it may be possible to counteract these climate effects through deliberate emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases, dampening the abrupt impact of an eruption. We estimate an emission pathway countering a hypothetical eruption 3 times the size of Mount Pinatubo in 1991. We use a global climate model to evaluate global and regional responses to the eruption, with and without counteremissions. We then raise practical, financial, and ethical questions related to such a strategy. Unlike the more commonly discussed geoengineering to mitigate warming from long-lived greenhouse gases, designed emissions to counter temporary cooling would not have the disadvantage of needing to be sustained over long periods. Nevertheless, implementation would still face significant challenges.

Atmospheric and climate effects of biomass burning using different injection heights

Inspired by the need for a representation of the biomass burning emissions injection height in the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model (EMAC)

Cascading climate effects and related ecological consequences during past centuries

The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long record of the great tit (Parus major) population in Switzerland in relation to climate and habitat phenology. Using structural equation analysis, we demonstrate an uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea – Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on fitness-relevant life history traits within great tit populations. We then apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology and productivity on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to 1500 AD. According to the structural equation model, the multi-decadal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial variation in habitat phenology, productivity and consequently, tit population fluctuations with minima during the "Maunder Minimum" (∼ 1650–1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810–1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500, and thus, the impact of the NAO and NCP has contributed to an unprecedented increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model against two independent data series (1970–2000 and 1750–1900) corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large-scale climate conditions substantially affect major life history parameters within a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of centuries.

Bottom-up effects of climate on fish populations: data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) dataset on fish larvae has an extensive spatio-temporal coverage that allows the responses of fish populations to past changes in climate variability, including abrupt changes such as regime shifts, to be investigated. The newly available dataset offers a unique opportunity to investigate long-term changes over decadal scales in the abundance and distribution of fish larvae in relation to physical and biological factors. A principal component analysis (PCA) using 7 biotic and abiotic parameters is applied to investigate the impact of environmental changes in the North Sea on 5 selected taxa of fish larvae during the period 1960 to 2004. The analysis revealed 4 periods of time (1960–1976; 1977–1982; 1983–1996; 1997–2004) reflecting 3 different ecosystem states. The larvae of clupeids, sandeels, dab and gadoids seemed to be affected mainly by changes in the plankton ecosystem, while the larvae of migratory species such as Atlantic mackerel responded more to hydrographic changes. Climate variability seems more likely to influence fish populations through bottom-up control via a cascading effect from changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) impacting on the hydro dynamic features of the North Sea, in turn impacting on the plankton available as prey for fish larvae. The responses and adaptability of fish larvae to changing environmental conditions, parti cularly to changes in prey availability, are complex and species-specific. This complexity is enhanced with fishing effects interacting with climate effects and this study supports furthering our under - standing of such interactions before attempting to predict how fish populations respond to climate variability

Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks

Recent studies show that fast climate response on time scales of less than a month can have important implications for long-term climate change. In this study, we investigate climate response on the time scale of days to weeks to a step-function quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 and contrast this with the response to a 4% increase in solar irradiance. Our simulations show that significant climate effects occur within days of a stepwise increase in both atmospheric CO2 content and solar irradiance. Over ocean, increased atmospheric CO2 warms the lower troposphere more than the surface, increasing atmospheric stability, moistening the boundary layer, and suppressing evaporation and precipitation. In contrast, over ocean, increased solar irradiance warms the lower troposphere to a much lesser extent, causing a much smaller change in evaporation and precipitation. Over land, both increased CO2 and increased solar irradiance cause rapid surface warming that tends to increase both evaporation and precipitation. However, the physiological effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on plant stomata reduces plant transpiration, drying the boundary layer and decreasing precipitation. This effect does not occur with increased solar irradiance. Therefore, differences in climatic effects from CO2 versus solar forcing are manifested within days after the forcing is imposed.