Investigating clinical predictors of arteriovenous fistula functional patency in a European cohort

Background: Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) failure to mature (FTM) rates contribute to excessive dependence on central venous catheters for haemodialysis. Choosing the most appropriate vascular access site for an individual patient is guided largely by their age, co-morbidities and clinical examination. We investigated the clinical predictors of AVF FTM in a European cohort of patients and applied an existing clinical risk prediction model for AVF FTM to this population.
Methods: A prospective cohort study was designed that included all patients undergoing AVF creation between January 2009 and December 2014 in a single centre (Belfast City Hospital) who had a functional AVF outcome observed by March 2015.
Results: A total of 525 patients had a functional AVF outcome recorded and were included in the FTM analysis. In this cohort, 309 (59%) patients achieved functional AVF patency and 216 (41%) patients had FTM. Female gender [P < 0.001, odds ratio (OR) 2.03 (CI 1.37–3.02)] and lower-arm AVF [P < 0.001, OR 4.07 (CI 2.77–5.92)] were associated with AVF FTM. The Lok model did not predict FTM outcomes based on the associated risk stratification in our population.
Conclusions: In this European study, female gender was associated with twice the risk of AVF FTM and a lower-arm AVF with four times the risk of FTM. The FTM risk prediction model was not found to be discriminative in this population. Clinical risk factors for AVF FTM vary between populations;we would recommend that units investigate their own clinical predictors of FTM to maximize AVF functional patency and ultimately survival in dialysis patients. Clinical predictors of AVF FTM may not be sufficient on their own to improve vascular access functional patency rates.

Clinical predictors of response to cognitive-behavioural therapy in pediatric anxiety disorders: the Genes for Treatment (GXT) Study

Objective The Genes for Treatment study is an international, multisite collaboration exploring the role of genetic, demographic, and clinical predictors in response to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) in pediatric anxiety disorders. The current article, the first from the study, examined demographic and clinical predictors of response to CBT. We hypothesized that the child’s gender, type of anxiety disorder, initial severity and comorbidity, and parents’ psychopathology would significantly predict outcome. Method A sample of 1,519 children 5 to 18 years of age with a primary anxiety diagnosis received CBT across 11 sites. Outcome was defined as response (change in diagnostic severity) and remission (absence of the primary diagnosis) at each time point (posttreatment, 3-, 6-, and/or 12-month follow-up) and analyzed using linear and logistic mixed models. Separate analyses were conducted using data from posttreatment and follow-up assessments to explore the relative importance of predictors at these time points. Results Individuals with social anxiety disorder (SoAD) had significantly poorer outcomes (poorer response and lower rates of remission) than those with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Although individuals with specific phobia (SP) also had poorer outcomes than those with GAD at posttreatment, these differences were not maintained at follow-up. Both comorbid mood and externalizing disorders significantly predicted poorer outcomes at posttreatment and follow-up, whereas self-reported parental psychopathology had little effect on posttreatment outcomes but significantly predicted response (although not remission) at follow-up. Conclusion SoAD, nonanxiety comorbidity, and parental psychopathology were associated with poorer outcomes after CBT. The results highlight the need for enhanced treatments for children at risk for poorer outcomes.

Frequency and clinical predictors of coronary artery disease in chronic renal failure renal transplant candidates

Background/aims: Cardiovascular diseases are major causes of mortality in chronic renal failure patients before and after renal transplantation. Among them, coronary disease presents a particular risk; however, risk predictors have been used to diagnose coronary heart disease. This study evaluated the frequency and importance of clinical predictors of coronary artery disease in chronic renal failure patients undergoing dialysis who were renal transplant candidates, and assessed a previously developed scoring system. Methods: Coronary angiographies conducted between March 2008 and April 2013 from 99 candidates for renal transplantation from two transplant centers in Sao Paulo state were analyzed for associations between significant coronary artery diseases (>= 70% stenosis in one or more epicardial coronary arteries or >= 50% in the left main coronary artery) and clinical parameters. Results: Univariate logistic regression analysis identified diabetes, angina, and/or previous infarction, clinical peripheral arterial disease and dyslipidemia as predictors of coronary artery disease. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified only diabetes and angina and/or previous infarction as independent predictors. Conclusion: The results corroborate previous studies demonstrating the importance of these factors when selecting patients for coronary angiography in clinical pretransplant evaluation.

Clinical Predictors Associated With Duration of Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Treatment for Remission in Bipolar Depression A Naturalistic Study

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) has been widely tested and shown to be effective for unipolar depression. Although it has also been investigated for bipolar depression (BD), there are only few rTMS studies with BD. Here, we investigated 56 patients with BD who received rTMS treatment until remission (defined as Hamilton Depression Rating Scores <= 7). We used simple and multiple logistic regressions to identify clinical and demographic predictors associated with duration of treatment (defined as <15 vs. >15 rTMS sessions). Age, refractoriness, number of prior depressive episodes, and severe depression at baseline were associated with a longer rTMS treatment. In the multivariate analysis, refractoriness (likelihood ratio (LR) = 4.33; p < 0.01) and baseline severity (LR = 0.18, p < 0.01) remained significant predictors. Our preliminary study showed that, in remitted patients, refractoriness and severity of index episode are associated with the need of a longer rTMS treatment; providing preliminary evidence of important factors associated with rTMS parameters adjustment.

Clinical Predictors of Different Grades of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the comorbidities related to obesity. Liver biopsy has been used as the "gold standard" for the diagnosis, grading, and prognosis of obese patients. The objective of the present study was to evaluate clinical predictors of more advanced stages of NAFLD. In this retrospective study we assessed several physical and laboratorial factors, including some cytokines, in morbidly obese patients submitted to Roux-en-Y gastric bypass that could be related to the diagnosis and staging of NAFLD. Fragments of the livers were obtained from wedge biopsies during operation. The medical records of 259 patients were studied. The patients were divided into four groups: normal hepatic biopsy, steatosis, mild nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and moderate and severe NASH. There were no differences in cytokine levels among groups. The triglyceride levels were the only variable that could stratify the grades of NAFLD and also differentiate from normal livers in the female patients. Also in this group, the aminotransferases and GGT levels and fasting glucose were predictors of the more advanced stages of NASH, while BMI and weight were predictors of the more advanced stages of NASH in male patients. There are no available markers in clinical practice to detect the initial stages of NAFLD. It is very important to perform a liver biopsy in all patients submitted to bariatric surgery and in obese patients with no indication to be operated in the presence of elevated blood levels of aminotransferases, GGT, and fasting glucose.

Psychosocial and clinical predictors of retention in outpatient alcoholism treatment

Objective: One of the factors associated with low rates of compliance in the treatment for alcoholism seems to be the intensity of craving for alcohol. This study aimed to evaluate the associations between alcohol craving and biopsychosocial addiction model-related variables and to verify whether these variables could predict treatment retention. Methods: The sample consisted of 257 male alcoholics who were enrolled in two different pharmacological trials conducted at the Universidade de Sao Paulo in Brazil. Based on four factors measured at baseline - biological (age, race, and family alcoholism), psychiatric (depression symptoms), social (financial and marital status), and addiction (craving intensity, severity of alcohol dependence, smoking status, drinking history, preferential beverage, daily intake of alcohol before treatment) - direct logistic regression was performed to analyze these factors' influence on treatment retention after controlling for medication groups and AA attendance. Results: Increasing age, participation in Alcoholics Anonymous groups, and beer preference among drinkers were independently associated with higher treatment retention. Conversely, higher scores for depression increased dropout rates. Conclusion: Health services should identify the treatment practices and therapists that improve retention. Information about patients' characteristics linked to dropouts should be studied to render treatment programs more responsive and attractive, combining pharmacological agents with more intensive and diversified psychosocial interventions.

Demographic and clinical predictors of depressive symptoms among incarcerated women

Abstract Background Imprisonment may lead to the development of mental illness, especially depression. This study examines the clinical and sociodemographic profiles of imprisoned women, identifies indicative signs of depression, and relates these indicators to other variables. Methods This study took the form of descriptive exploratory research with a psychometric evaluation. A total of 100 of 300 women in a female penitentiary were interviewed. A questionnaire with sociodemographic, clinical and penal situation information was used, along with the Beck Depression Inventory. The authors performed bivariate and multivariate analysis regarding depression. Results In all, 82 women presented signs of depression (light = 33, mild = 29 and severe = 20). Comorbidities, lack of religious practice, absence of visitors and presence of eating disorders were risk factors for depression (P = 0.03, 0.03, 0.02, 0.04, and 0.01). Being older was a protection factor against severe depression; for women over 30, the risk of depression was multiplied by 0.12. The rate of depression among women prisoners was high. Conclusions Comorbidities, the lack of religious practice, not having visitors and eating disorders are significant risk factors for depression, while age is a protective factor, among incarcerated women.

Clinical predictors of long-term outcome in obsessive-compulsive disorder

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate demographic and clinical factors associated with the long-term outcome of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Methods: A hundred ninety-six previously untreated patients with DSM-IV criteria OCD completed a 12-week randomized open trial of group cognitive-behavioral therapy (GCBT) or fluoxetine, followed by 21 months of individualized, uncontrolled treatment, according to international guidelines for OCD treatment. OCD severity was assessed using the Yale–Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) at different times over the follow-up period. Demographics and several clinical variables were assessed at baseline. Results: Fifty percent of subjects improved at least 35% from baseline, and 21.3% responded fully (final Y-BOCS score < or = 8). Worse prognosis was associated with earlier age at onset of OCD (P = 0.045), longer duration of illness (P = 0.001) presence of at least one comorbid psychiatric disorder (P = 0.001), comorbidity with a mood disorder (P = 0.002), higher baseline Beck-Depression scores (P = 0.011), positive family history of tics (P = 0.008), and positive family history of anxiety disorders (P = 0.008). Type of initial treatment was not associated with long-term outcome. After correction for multiple testing, the presence of at least one comorbid disorder, the presence of a depressive disorder, and duration of OCD remained significant. Conclusions: Patients under cognitive-behavioral or pharmacological treatment improved continuously in the long run, regardless of initial treatment modality or degree of early response, suggesting that OCD patients benefit from continuous treatment. Psychiatric comorbidity, especially depressive disorders, may impair the long-term outcome of OCD patients.

Clinical predictors of prophylaxis use prior to the onset of acute venous thromboembolism in hospitalized patients SWIss Venous ThromboEmbolism Registry (SWIVTER)

BACKGROUND: We investigated clinical predictors of appropriate prophylaxis prior to the onset of venous thromboembolism (VTE). METHODS: In 14 Swiss hospitals, 567 consecutive patients (306 medical, 261 surgical) with acute VTE and hospitalization < 30 days prior to the VTE event were enrolled. RESULTS: Prophylaxis was used in 329 (58%) patients within 30 days prior to the VTE event. Among the medical patients, 146 (48%) received prophylaxis, and among the surgical patients, 183 (70%) received prophylaxis (P < 0.001). The indication for prophylaxis was present in 262 (86%) medical patients and in 217 (83%) surgical patients. Among the patients with an indication for prophylaxis, 135 (52%) of the medical patients and 165 (76%) of the surgical patients received prophylaxis (P < 0.001). Admission to the intensive care unit [odds ratio (OR) 3.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.94-5.57], recent surgery (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.51-3.44), bed rest > 3 days (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.45-3.09), obesity (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.03-3.90), prior deep vein thrombosis (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.31-2.24) and prior pulmonary embolism (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.05-2.26) were independent predictors of prophylaxis. In contrast, cancer (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.89-1.25), age (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98-1.01), acute heart failure (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.79-1.63) and acute respiratory failure (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.89-1.59) were not predictive of prophylaxis. CONCLUSIONS: Although an indication for prophylaxis was present in most patients who suffered acute VTE, almost half did not receive any form of prophylaxis. Future efforts should focus on the improvement of prophylaxis for hospitalized patients, particularly in patients with cancer, acute heart or respiratory failure, and in the elderly.

Hormonal and Clinical Predictors for Post-egg Retrieval Pain in Women Undergoing Assisted Reproductive Technology Procedures

OBJECTIVES The intensity of post-egg retrieval pain is underestimated, with few studies examining post-procedural pain and predictors to identify women at risk for severe pain. We evaluated the influence of pre-procedural hormonal levels, ovarian factors, as well as mechanical temporal summation (mTS) as predictors for post-egg retrieval pain in women undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF). METHODS Eighteen women scheduled for ultrasound-guided egg retrieval under standardized anesthesia and post-procedural analgesia were enrolled. Pre-procedural mTS, questionnaires, clinical data related to anesthesia and the procedure itself, post-procedural pain scores and pain medication for breakthrough pain were recorded. Statistical analysis included Pearson product moment correlations, Mann-Whitney U tests and multiple linear regressions. RESULTS Average peak post-egg retrieval pain during the first 24 hours was 5.0±1.6 on an NRS scale (0=no pain, 10=worst pain imaginable). Peak post-egg retrieval pain was correlated with basal antimullerian hormone (AMH) (r=0.549, P=0.018), pre-procedural peak estradiol (r=0.582, P=0.011), total number of follicles (r=0.517, P=0.028) and number of retrieved eggs (r=0.510, P=0.031). Ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) (n=4) was associated with higher basal AMH (P=0.004), higher peak pain scores (P=0.049), but not with peak estradiol (P=0.13). The mTS did not correlate with peak post-procedural pain (r=0.266, P=0.286), or peak estradiol level (r=0.090, P=0.899). DISCUSSION Peak post-egg retrieval pain intensity was higher than anticipated. Our results suggest that post-egg retrieval pain can be predicted by baseline AMH, high peak estradiol, and OHSS. Further studies to evaluate intra- and post-procedural pain in this population are needed, as well as clinical trials to assess post-procedural analgesia in women presenting with high hormonal levels.

When Does Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Really Avoid Radiotherapy? Clinical Predictors of Adjuvant Radiotherapy in Cervical Cancer.

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to identify clinical variables that may predict the need for adjuvant radiotherapy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) and radical surgery in locally advanced cervical cancer patients. METHODS A retrospective series of cervical cancer patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stages IB2-IIB treated with NACT followed by radical surgery was analyzed. Clinical predictors of persistence of intermediate- and/or high-risk factors at final pathological analysis were investigated. Statistical analysis was performed using univariate and multivariate analysis and using a model based on artificial intelligence known as artificial neuronal network (ANN) analysis. RESULTS Overall, 101 patients were available for the analyses. Fifty-two (51 %) patients were considered at high risk secondary to parametrial, resection margin and/or lymph node involvement. When disease was confined to the cervix, four (4 %) patients were considered at intermediate risk. At univariate analysis, FIGO grade 3, stage IIB disease at diagnosis and the presence of enlarged nodes before NACT predicted the presence of intermediate- and/or high-risk factors at final pathological analysis. At multivariate analysis, only FIGO grade 3 and tumor diameter maintained statistical significance. The specificity of ANN models in evaluating predictive variables was slightly superior to conventional multivariable models. CONCLUSIONS FIGO grade, stage, tumor diameter, and histology are associated with persistence of pathological intermediate- and/or high-risk factors after NACT and radical surgery. This information is useful in counseling patients at the time of treatment planning with regard to the probability of being subjected to pelvic radiotherapy after completion of the initially planned treatment.

Prevalence, predictors, and correlates of supportive care needs among women 3–5 years after a diagnosis of endometrial cancer

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the prevalence, sociodemographic and clinical predictors, and physical and psychosocial correlates of unmet needs among women 3–5 years following treatment for endometrial cancer. Methods Women with endometrial cancer completed a survey around the time of diagnosis and again 3–5 years later. The follow-up survey asked women about their physical and psychosocial functioning and supportive care needs (CaSUN). Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression identified the predictors and correlates of women’s unmet needs 3–5 years after diagnosis. Results Of the 629 women who completed the cancer survivors’ unmet needs measure (CaSUN), 24 % (n = 153) women reported one or more unmet supportive care needs in the last month. Unmet needs at 3–5 years post-diagnosis were predicted by younger age (OR = 4.47; 95 % CI: 2.09–9.56) and advanced disease stage at diagnosis (OR = 2.47; 95 % CI: 1.38–4.45) and correlated with greater cancer symptoms (OR = 1.78; 95 % CI: 1.05–3.02), lower limb swelling (OR = 2.50; 95 % CI: 1.51–4.15), symptoms of anxiety (OR = 2.21; 95 % CI: 1.31–3.72), and less availability of social support (OR = 3.42; 95 % CI: 1.92–6.11). Women with a history of comorbidities (OR = 0.47; 95 % CI: 0.27–0.82) and those living in a rural area at the time of diagnosis (OR = 0.56; 95 % CI: 0.34–0.92) were less likely to report unmet needs. Conclusions Sociodemographic, health, and psychosocial factors seem important for identifying women who will or will not have unmet needs several years following endometrial cancer. Longitudinal assessments of people’s needs over the course of their cancer trajectory may be an effective way to identify areas that should receive further attention by health providers.

Predicting outcomes following cognitive behavior therapy in child anxiety disorders: the influence of genetic, demographic and clinical information

Background. Within a therapeutic gene by environment (GxE) framework, we recently demonstrated that variation in the Serotonin Transporter Promoter Polymorphism; 5HTTLPR and marker rs6330 in Nerve Growth Factor gene; NGF is associated with poorer outcomes following cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for child anxiety disorders. The aim of this study was to explore one potential means of extending the translational reach of G×E data in a way that may be clinically informative. We describe a ‘risk-index’ approach combining genetic, demographic and clinical data and test its ability to predict diagnostic outcome following CBT in anxious children. Method. DNA and clinical data were collected from 384 children with a primary anxiety disorder undergoing CBT. We tested our risk model in five cross-validation training sets. Results. In predicting treatment outcome, six variables had a minimum mean beta value of 0.5: 5HTTLPR, NGF rs6330, gender, primary anxiety severity, comorbid mood disorder and comorbid externalising disorder. A risk index (range 0-8) constructed from these variables had moderate predictive ability (AUC = .62-.69) in this study. Children scoring high on this index (5-8) were approximately three times as likely to retain their primary anxiety disorder at follow-up as compared to those children scoring 2 or less. Conclusion. Significant genetic, demographic and clinical predictors of outcome following CBT for anxiety-disordered children were identified. Combining these predictors within a risk-index could be used to identify which children are less likely to be diagnosis free following CBT alone or thus require longer or enhanced treatment. The ‘risk-index’ approach represents one means of harnessing the translational potential of G×E data.