Multidecadal climate oscillations detected in a transparency record from a subtropical Florida lake

Synchronous interannual variability in water transparency observed in neighboring lakes has been linked to regional precipitation and resultant runoff of dissolved organic material, but many climate forcings oscillate over time scales longer than most limnological records can detect. A strong relationship (R2 5 0.86) between transparency and the previous two years’ rainfall and lake stage in a 25-yr record from a Florida lake enabled us to hindcast transparency from a longer 75-yr record of rainfall and lake stage. Predictions revealed a ,30-yr cycle in transparency linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Transparency was greatest (4–8 m) in the cool phase of the AMO (,1962–1993) associated with below-average rainfall in south Florida and lowest (0.1– 3.0 m) during two warm phases (,1932–1961, 1994–present) associated with above-average, but more variable, annual rainfall. Models that predict effects of large-scale hydrologic restoration projects on solute export from South Florida’s expansive wetlands need to account for recent entry into a warm AMO phase, where teleconnections between the AMO phases and runoff are opposite of those shown for the U.S. interior.

Climate forcing of Pacific herring recruitment and growth in southern British Columbia

Over the last 50 years, much of the variability in ocean climate and herring recruitment has occurred at two dominant periods centered around 5 and 16 years. Herring growth has also exhibited a dominant 5- and 18-year periodicity. A recent analysis of a number of relevant time series suggests that interannual variations in oceanic conditions off the west coast of Vancouver Island affect survival of herring and their principal predator, Pacific hake, which also exhibits a marked 16-year oscillation in abundance. Thus the dynamics of the herring stock are modulated by a combination of climate and predator forcing. Much of the interannual variation in herring growth is centered around the 5-year (moderate ENSO period) and 16-year (strong ENSO period) ocean climate oscillations and the 16-year recruitment oscillation.

Synchronization in climate dynamics and other extended systems

Synchronization is now well established as representing coherent behaviour between two or more otherwise autonomous nonlinear systems subject to some degree of coupling. Such behaviour has mainly been studied to date, however, in relatively low-dimensional discrete systems or networks. But the possibility of similar kinds of behaviour in continuous or extended spatiotemporal systems has many potential practical implications, especially in various areas of geophysics. We review here a range of cyclically varying phenomena within the Earth's climate system for which there may be some evidence or indication of the possibility of synchronized behaviour, albeit perhaps imperfect or highly intermittent. The exploitation of this approach is still at a relatively early stage within climate science and dynamics, in which the climate system is regarded as a hierarchy of many coupled sub-systems with complex nonlinear feedbacks and forcings. The possibility of synchronization between climate oscillations (global or local) and a predictable external forcing raises important questions of how models of such phenomena can be validated and verified, since the resulting response may be relatively insensitive to the details of the model being synchronized. The use of laboratory analogues may therefore have an important role to play in the study of natural systems that can only be observed and for which controlled experiments are impossible. We go on to demonstrate that synchronization can be observed in the laboratory, even in weakly coupled fluid dynamical systems that may serve as direct analogues of the behaviour of major components of the Earth's climate system. The potential implications and observability of these effects in the long-term climate variability of the Earth is further discussed. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms in the northeast Atlantic

We investigated long-term spatial variability in a number of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Over the last four decades, some dinoflagellate taxa showed pronounced variation in the south and east of the North Sea, with the most significant increases being restricted to the adjacent waters off Norway. There was also a general decrease along the eastern coast of the United Kingdom. The most prominent feature in the interannual bloom frequencies over the last four decades was the anomalously high values recorded in the late 1980s in the northern and central North Sea areas. The only mesoscale area in the northeast Atlantic to show a significant increase in bloom formation over the last decade was the Norwegian coastal region. The changing spatial patterns of HAB taxa and the frequency of bloom formation are discussed in relation to regional climate change, in particular, changes in temperature, salinity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Areas highly vulnerable to the effects of regional climate change on HABs are Norwegian coastal waters and the Skagerrak. Other vulnerable areas include Danish coastal waters, and to a lesser extent, the German and Dutch Bight and the northern Irish Sea. Quite apart from eutrophication, our results give a preview of what might happen to certain HAB genera under changing climatic conditions in temperate environments and their responses to variability of climate oscillations such as the NAO.

Rapid ecosystem response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period in western Europe, 40-16 ka

We present a high-resolution and independently dated multiproxy lake sediment record from the paleolake at Les Echets in southeastern France that displays synchronous changes in independent limnic and terrestrial ecosystem proxies, in concert with millennial-scale climate oscillations during the last glacial period. Distinct lake-level fluctuations, low lake organic productivity, and open, treeless vegetation indicate cold and dry conditions in response to Heinrich events. Alternating phases of higher and low lake organic productivity, stratified surface waters and long-lasting lake ice cover, decreased or increased catchment erosion, and tree-dominated or herb-dominated vegetation resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial-stadial variability. Transitions between different ecological states occurred in as little as 40-230 yr and seem to have been controlled by the position of the Polar Front. Ecosystem response after 30 ka suggests that local climate conditions became more important. Our results demonstrate that all parts of the terrestrial system responded to the abrupt and dramatic climatic changes associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, and that regional factors modulated ecosystem response.

Determinants of bird species richness, endemism, and island network roles in Wallacea and the West Indies: is geography sufficient or does current and historical climate matter?

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

High-resolution stratigraphy of Central and Southern Adriatic Quaternary deposits of sub-Milankovian climate change on Mediterranean circulation

This volume is a collection of the work done in a three years-lasting PhD, focused in the analysis of Central and Southern Adriatic marine sediments, deriving from the collection of a borehole and many cores, achieved thanks to the good seismic-stratigraphic knowledge of the study area. The work was made out within European projects EC-EURODELTA (coordinated by Fabio Trincardi, ISMAR-CNR), EC-EUROSTRATAFORM (coordinated by Phil P. E. Weaver, NOC, UK), and PROMESS1 (coordinated by Serge Bernè, IFREMER, France). The analysed sedimentary successions presented highly expanded stratigraphic intervals, particularly for the last 400 kyr, 60 kyr and 6 kyr BP. These three different time-intervals resulted in a tri-partition of the PhD thesis. The study consisted of the analysis of planktic and benthic foraminifers’ assemblages (more than 560 samples analysed), as well as in preparing the material for oxygen and carbon stable isotope analyses, and interpreting and discussing the obtained dataset. The chronologic framework of the last 400 kyr was achieved for borehole PRAD1-2 (within the work-package WP6 of PROMESS1 project), collected in 186.5 m water depth. The proposed chronology derives from a multi-disciplinary approach, consisting of the integration of numerous and independent proxies, some of which analysed by other specialists within the project. The final framework based on: micropaleontology (calcareous nannofossils and foraminifers’ bioevents), climatic cyclicity (foraminifers’ assemblages), geochemistry (oxygen stable isotope, made out on planktic and benthic records), paleomagnetism, radiometric ages (14C AMS), teprhochronology, identification of sapropel-equivalent levels (Se). It’s worth to note the good consistency between the oxygen stable isotope curve obtained for borehole PRAD1-2 and other deeper Mediterranean records. The studied proxies allowed the recognition of all the isotopic intervals from MIS10 to MIS1 in PRAD1-2 record, and the base of the borehole has been ascribed to the early MIS11. Glacial and interglacial intervals identified in the Central Adriatic record have been analysed in detail for the paleo-environmental reconstruction, as well. For instance, glacial stages MIS6, MIS8 and MIS10 present peculiar foraminifers’ assemblages, composed by benthic species typical of polar regions and no longer living in the Central Adriatic nowadays. Moreover, a deepening trend in the paleo-bathymetry during glacial intervals was observed, from MIS10 (inner-shelf environment) to MIS4 (mid-shelf environment).Ten sapropel-equivalent levels have been recognised in PRAD1-2 Central Adriatic record. They showed different planktic foraminifers’ assemblages, which allowed the first distinction of events occurred during warm-climate (Se5, Se7), cold-climate (Se4, Se6 and Se8) and temperate-intermediate-climate (Se1, Se3, Se9, Se’, Se10) conditions, consistently with literature. Cold-climate sapropel equivalents are characterised by the absence of an oligotrophic phase, whereas warm-temeprate-climate sapropel equivalents present both the oligotrophic and the eutrophic phases (except for Se1). Sea floor conditions vary, according to benthic foraminifers’ assemblages, from relatively well oxygenated (Se1, Se3), to dysoxic (Se9, Se’, Se10), to highly dysoxic (Se4, Se6, Se8) to events during which benthic foraminifers are absent (Se5, Se7). These two latter levels are also characterised by the lamination of the sediment, feature never observed in literature in such shallow records. The enhanced stratification of the water column during the events Se8, Se7, Se6, Se5, Se4, and the concurring strong dilution of shallow water, pointed out by the isotope record, lead to the hypothesis of a period of intense precipitation in the Central Adriatic region, possibly due to a northward shift of the African Monsoon. Finally, the expression of Central Adriatic PRAD1-2 Se5 equivalent was compared with the same event, as registered in other Eastern Mediterranean areas. The sequence of substantially the same planktic foraminifers’ bioevents has been consistently recognised, indicating a similar evolution of the water column all over the Eastern Mediterranean; yet, the synchronism of these events cannot be demonstrated. A high resolution analysis of late Holocene (last 6000 years BP) climate change was carried out for the Adriatic area, through the recognition of planktic and benthic foraminifers’ bioevents. In particular, peaks of planktic Globigerinoides sacculifer (four during the last 5500 years BP in the most expanded core) have been interpreted, based on the ecological requirements of this species, as warm-climate, arid intervals, correspondent to periods of relative climatic optimum, such as, for instance, the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman Age, the Late Bronze Age and the Copper Age. Consequently, the minima in the abundance of this biomarker could correspond to relatively cooler and more rainy periods. These conclusions are in good agreement with the isotopic and the pollen data. The Last Occurrence (LO) of G. sacculifer has been dated in this work at an average age of 550 years BP, and it is the best bioevent approximating the base of the Little Ice Age in the Adriatic. Recent literature reports the same bioevent in the Levantine Basin, showing a rather consistent age. Therefore, the LO of G. sacculifer has the potential to be extended to all the Eastern Mediterranean. Within the Little Ice Age, benthic foraminifer V. complanata shows two distinct peaks in the shallower Adriatic cores analysed, collected hundred kilometres apart, inside the mud belt environment. Based on the ecological requirements of this species, these two peaks have been interpreted as the more intense (cold and rainy) oscillations inside the LIA. The chronologic framework of the analysed cores is robust, being based on several range-finding 14C AMS ages, on estimates of the secular variation of the magnetic field, on geochemical estimates of the activity depth of 210Pb short-lived radionuclide (for the core-top ages), and is in good agreement with tephrochronologic, pollen and foraminiferal data. The intra-holocenic climate oscillations find out in the Adriatic have been compared with those pointed out in literature from other records of the Northern Hemisphere, and the chronologic constraint seems quite good. Finally, the sedimentary successions analysed allowed the review and the update of the foraminifers’ ecobiostratigraphy available from literature for the Adriatic region, thanks to the achievement of 16 ecobiozones for the last 60 kyr BP. Some bioevents are restricted to the Central Adriatic (for instance the LO of benthic Hyalinea balthica , approximating the MIS3/MIS2 boundary), others occur all over the Adriatic basin (for instance the LO of planktic Globorotalia inflata during MIS3, individuating Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle 8 (Denekamp)).

Aprubt climate change events in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean

The western Iberian margin has been one of the key locations to study abrupt glacial climate change and associated interhemispheric linkages. The regional variability in the response to those events is being studied by combining a multitude of published and new records. Looking at the trend from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 to 2, the planktic foraminifer data, conform with the alkenone record of Martrat et al. [2007], shows that abrupt climate change events, especially the Heinrich events, became more frequent and their impacts in general stronger during the last glacial cycle. However, there were two older periods with strong impacts on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC): the Heinrich-type event associated with Termination (T) IV and the one occurring during MIS 8 (269 to 265 ka). During the Heinrich stadials of the last glacial cycle, the polar front reached the northern Iberian margin (ca. 41°N), while the arctic front was located in the vicinity of 39°N. During all the glacial periods studied, there existed a boundary at the latter latitude, either the arctic front during extreme cold events or the subarctic front during less strong coolings or warmer glacials. Along with these fronts sea surface temperatures (SST) increased southward by about 1°C per one degree of latitude leading to steep temperature gradients in the eastern North Atlantic and pointing to a close vicinity between subpolar and subtropical waters. The southern Iberian margin was always bathed by subtropical water masses - surface and/ or subsurface ones -, but there were periods when these waters also penetrated northward to 40.6°N. Glacial hydrographic conditions were similar during MIS 2 and 4, but much different during MIS 6. MIS 6 was a warmer glacial with the polar front being located further to the north allowing the subtropical surface and subsurface waters to reach at minimum as far north as 40.6°N and resulting in relative stable conditions on the southern margin. In the vertical structure, the Greenland-type climate oscillations during the last glacial cycle were recorded down to 2465 m during the Heinrich stadials, i.e. slightly deeper than in the western basin. This deeper boundary is related to the admixing of Mediterranean Outflow Water, which also explains the better ventilation of the intermediate-depth water column on the Iberian margin. This compilation revealed that latitudinal, longitudinal and vertical gradients existed in the waters along the Iberian margin, i.e. in a relative restricted area, but sufficient paleo-data exists now to validate regional climate models for abrupt climate change events in the northeastern North Atlantic Ocean.

Climate and total tree cover reconstructions based on the 43.7-kyr fossil pollen record from Khoe (NW Sakhalin Island) and modern climate variables of 236 modern surface pollen sampling sites

A late Quaternary pollen record from northern Sakhalin Island (51.34°N, 142.14°E, 15 m a.s.l.) spanning the last 43.7 ka was used to reconstruct regional climate dynamics and vegetation distribution by using the modern analogue technique (MAT). The long-term trends of the reconstructed mean annual temperature (TANN) and precipitation (PANN), and total tree cover are generally in line with key palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region and the Asian monsoon domain. TANN largely follows the fluctuations in solar summer insolation at 55°N. During Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, TANN and PANN were on average 0.2 °C and 700 mm, respectively, thus very similar to late Holocene/modern conditions. Full glacial climate deterioration (TANN = -3.3 °C, PANN = 550 mm) was relatively weak as suggested by the MAT-inferred average climate parameters and tree cover densities. However, error ranges of the climate reconstructions during this interval are relatively large and the last glacial environments in northern Sakhalin could be much colder and drier than suggested by the weighted average values. An anti-phase relationship between mean temperature of the coldest (MTCO) and warmest (MTWA) month is documented during the last glacial period, i.e. MIS 2 and 3, suggesting more continental climate due to sea levels that were lower than present. Warmest and wettest climate conditions have prevailed since the end of the last glaciation with an optimum (TANN = 1.5 °C, PANN = 800 mm) in the middle Holocene interval (ca 8.7-5.2 cal. ka BP). This lags behind the solar insolation peak during the early Holocene. We propose that this is due to continuous Holocene sea level transgression and regional influence of the Tsushima Warm Current, which reached maximum intensity during the middle Holocene. Several short-term climate oscillations are suggested by our reconstruction results and correspond to Northern Hemisphere Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events, the Bølling-Allerød and the Younger Dryas. The most prominent fluctuation is registered during Heinrich 4 event, which is marked by noticeably colder and drier conditions and the spread of herbaceous taxa.

Tropically-driven climate shifts in southwestern Europe during MIS 19, a low eccentricity interglacial

The relative roles of high- versus low-latitude forcing of millennial-scale climate variability are still not well understood. Here we present terrestrial–marine climate profiles from the southwestern Iberian margin, a region particularly affected by precession, that show millennial climate oscillations related to a nonlinear response to the Earth's precession cycle during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 19. MIS 19 has been considered the best analogue to our present interglacial from an astronomical point of view due to the reduced eccentricity centred at 785 ka. In our records, seven millennial-scale forest contractions punctuated MIS 19 superimposed to two orbitally-driven Mediterranean forest expansions. In contrast to our present interglacial, we evidence for the first time low latitude-driven 5000-yr cycles of drying and cooling in the western Mediterranean region, along with warmth in the subtropical gyre related to the fourth harmonic of precession. These cycles indicate repeated intensification of North Atlantic meridional moisture transport that along with decrease in boreal summer insolation triggered ice growth and may have contributed to the glacial inception, at ∼774 ka. The freshwater fluxes during MIS 19ab amplified the cooling events in the North Atlantic promoting further cooling and leading to MIS 18 glaciation. The discrepancy between the dominant cyclicity observed during MIS 1, 2500-yr, and that of MIS 19, 5000-yr, challenges the similar duration of the Holocene and MIS 19c interglacials under natural boundary conditions.

Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms in the northeast Atlantic

We investigated long-term spatial variability in a number of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Over the last four decades. some dinoflagellate taxa showed pronounced variation in the south and east of the North Sea, with the most significant increases being restricted to the adjacent waters off Norway. There was also a general decrease along the eastern coast of the United Kingdom. The most prominent feature in the interannual bloom frequencies over the last four decades was the anomalously high values recorded in the late 1980s in the northern and central North Sea areas. The only mesoscale area in the northeast Atlantic to show a significant increase in bloom formation over the last decade was the Norwegian coastal region. The changing spatial patterns of HAB taxa and the frequency of bloom formation are discussed in relation to regional climate change, in particular, changes in temperature, salinity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Areas highly vulnerable to the effects of regional climate change on HABs are Norwegian coastal waters and the Skagerrak. Other vulnerable areas include Danish coastal waters, and to a lesser extent, the German and Dutch Bight and the northern Irish Sea. Quite apart from eutrophication, our results give a preview of what might happen to certain HAB genera under changing climatic conditions in temperate environments and their responses to variability of climate oscillations Such as the NAO.

Wave climate in the Arctic 1992-2014: seasonality and trends

Over the past decade, the diminishing Arctic sea ice has impacted the wave field, which depends on the ice-free ocean and wind. This study characterizes the wave climate in the Arctic spanning 1992–2014 from a merged altimeter data set and a wave hindcast that uses CFSR winds and ice concentrations from satellites as input. The model performs well, verified by the altimeters, and is relatively consistent for climate studies. The wave seasonality and extremes are linked to the ice coverage, wind strength, and wind direction, creating distinct features in the wind seas and swells. The altimeters and model show that the reduction of sea ice coverage causes increasing wave heights instead of the wind. However, trends are convoluted by interannual climate oscillations like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In the Nordic Greenland Sea the NAO influences the decreasing wind speeds and wave heights. Swells are becoming more prevalent and wind-sea steepness is declining. The satellite data show the sea ice minimum occurs later in fall when the wind speeds increase. This creates more favorable conditions for wave development. Therefore we expect the ice freeze-up in fall to be the most critical season in the Arctic and small changes in ice cover, wind speeds, and wave heights can have large impacts to the evolution of the sea ice throughout the year. It is inconclusive how important wave–ice processes are within the climate system, but selected events suggest the importance of waves within the marginal ice zone.