Natural convection in a triangular enclosure due to non-uniform cooling on top

Natural convection in a triangular enclosure subject to non-uniformly cooling at the inclined surfaces and uniformly heating at the base is investigated numerically. The numerical simulations of the unsteady flows over a range of Rayleigh numbers and aspect ratios are carried out using Finite Volume Method. Since the upper surface is cooled and the bottom surface is heated, the air flow in the enclosure is potentially unstable to Rayleigh Benard instability. It is revealed that the transient flow development in the enclosure can be classified into three distinct stages; an early stage, a transitional stage and a steady stage. It is also found that the flow inside the enclosure strongly depends on the governing parameters; Rayleigh number and aspect ratio. The asymmetric behaviour of the flow about the geometric centre line is discussed in detailed. The heat transfer through the roof and the ceiling as a form of Nusselt number is also reported in this study.

Essays on Vietnam’s Financial Reforms: Foreign Exchange Statistics and Evidence of Long-Run Equilibrium

In this paper, we examine exchange rates in Vietnam’s transitional economy. Evidence of long-run equilibrium are established in most cases through a single co-integrating vector among endogenous variables that determine the real exchange rates. This supports relative PPP in which ECT of the system can be combined linearly into a stationary process, reducing deviation from PPP in the long run. Restricted coefficient vectors ß’ = (1, 1, -1) for real exchange rates of currencies in question are not rejected. This empirics of relative PPP adds to found evidences by many researchers, including Flre et al. (1999), Lee (1999), Johnson (1990), Culver and Papell (1999), Cuddington and Liang (2001). Instead of testing for different time series on a common base currency, we use different base currencies (USD, GBP, JPY and EUR). By doing so we want to know the whether theory may posit significant differences against one currency? We have found consensus, given inevitable technical differences, even with smallerdata sample for EUR. Speeds of convergence to PPP and adjustment are faster compared to results from other researches for developed economies, using both observed and bootstrapped HL measures. Perhaps, a better explanation is the adjustment from hyperinflation period, after which the theory indicates that adjusting process actually accelerates. We observe that deviation appears to have been large in early stages of the reform, mostly overvaluation. Over time, its correction took place leading significant deviations to gradually disappear.

Clark County GIS August 2008

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Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.

Semi-Parametric Weak Instrument Regressions with an Application to the Risk-Return Trade-off

Recent work shows that a low correlation between the instruments and the included variables leads to serious inference problems. We extend the local-to-zero analysis of models with weak instruments to models with estimated instruments and regressors and with higher-order dependence between instruments and disturbances. This makes this framework applicable to linear models with expectation variables that are estimated non-parametrically. Two examples of such models are the risk-return trade-off in finance and the impact of inflation uncertainty on real economic activity. Results show that inference based on Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests is more robust to weak instruments than Wald-based inference. Using LM confidence intervals leads us to conclude that no statistically significant risk premium is present in returns on the S&P 500 index, excess holding yields between 6-month and 3-month Treasury bills, or in yen-dollar spot returns.

Schlussbericht zum Projekt simject ‐ Simulationsgestütztes logistikintegriertes Projektmanagement im Anlagenbau

Der kundenindividuelle Anlagenbau (z. B. im Bereich Energie-, Kraftwerk- und Umwelttechnik) ist durch ein klassisches Projektgeschäft geprägt und erfordert ein individuelles Projektmanagement in Abhängigkeit von dem zu liefernden Produkt und den jeweiligen kunden- und projektindividuellen Rahmenbedingungen. So steht das Projektmanagement hier vor der Herausforderung, dass Anlagen in Form einer Baustellenfertigung als Unikate realisiert werden müssen, wobei die einzelnen Module häufig an unterschiedlichen Standorten gefertigt und dann unter Beachtung systemtechnischer, konstruktiver, lokaler, logistischer, energetischer, wetterbedingter, zeitlicher und finanzieller Randbedingungen beim Kunden montiert werden müssen. Zudem werden Projekterfahrungen selten über Projekte hinaus weitergereicht, d. h. es erfolgt nur bedingt eine Zusammenführung des Erfahrungswissens, das während der Projektrealisierung anwächst. Zur Risikovermeidung im Projektverlauf und zur Erreichung einer termingerechten Inbetriebnahme sind daher in Erweiterung zu den heutigen Projektmanagementwerkzeugen ergänzende Methoden zur Abschätzung von Projektunsicherheiten und zur Bewertung von Projektplänen, aber auch zur nachhaltige Nutzung von Projektwissen notwendig. Zur Verbesserung des logistikintegrierten Projektmanagements im kundenindividuellen Anlagenbau wurde daher eine Methodik zur projekt- und produktspezifischen Unterstützung des Projektmanagements entwickelt und anhand eines Demonstrators umgesetzt. Statt den Unsicherheiten im Projektverlauf mit zusätzlichen Pufferzeiten zu begegnen, bewertet jetzt eine mit Optimierungs-, Analyse- und Visualisierungsverfahren kombinierte Ablaufsimulation zufällige Einflüsse in den Plänen. Hierdurch wird eine Verbesserung des Risikomanagements in den Projekten erreicht, indem bestehende Unsicherheiten in den Planungsprozessen simuliert und reduziert werden. Um einen transparenten Projektmanagementprozess zu erhalten und auch Erfahrungswissen aus vorangegangenen Projekten einzubinden, lassen sich Referenzprojektpläne unter Berücksichtigung von Restriktionen nutzen, die durch das zu erstellende Produkt, die zu verwendenden Technologien, die zugrundeliegenden Prozesse oder die notwendigen logistischen Ressourcen bedingt sind. Die IT-Architektur der Plattform ist werkzeugneutral, so dass das entwickelte Konzept auf Branchen außerhalb des Anlagenbaus übertragbar ist. Dies haben Vertreter verschiedener Industrieunternehmen des Anlagenbaus aus den Bereichen der Umwelt- und Energietechnik, des Schiffbaus, der Automobilindustrie sowie dem OWL Maschinenbau e.V. bestätigt.

Forecasting stock index volatility : comparing implied volatility and the intraday high-low price range

The intraday high–low price range offers volatility forecasts similarly efficient to high-quality implied volatility indexes published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) for four stock market indexes: S&P 500, S&P 100, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrials. Examination of in-sample and out-of-sample volatility forecasts reveals that neither implied volatility nor intraday high–low range volatility consistently outperforms the other.

Estimating expected excess returns using historical and option-implied volatility

We test the relation between expected and realized excess returns for the S&P 500 index from January 1994 through December 2003 using the proportional reward-to-risk measure to estimate expected returns. When risk is measured by historical volatility, we find no relation between expected and realized excess returns. In contrast, when risk is measured by option-implied volatility, we find a positive and significant relation between expected and realized excess returns in the 1994–1998 subperiod. In the 1999–2003 subperiod, the option-implied volatility risk measure yields a positive, but statistically insignificant, risk-return relation. We attribute this performance difference to the fact that, in the 1994–1998 subperiod, return volatility was lower and the average return was much higher than in the 1999–2003 subperiod, thereby increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in the latter subperiod.

Attivita tirosina decarbossilasica in enterococcus mundtii

Le ammine biogene sono il prodotto della decarbossilazione degli amminoacidi da parte di enzimi microbici. Tra essi vi è la tirosina decarbossilasi, caratterizzata dalla possibilità di utilizzare, in assenza di tirosina, la fenilalanina, ottenendo la 2-feniletilamina. In particolare, la tiramina è responsabile della comparsa di importanti sintomi tossicologici, raggruppati con il termine “cheese reaction”. In questa sperimentazione sono stati presi in considerazione 2 ceppi di Enterococcus mundtii (C46 e C53) coltivati in BHI in presenza o assenza di tirosina per caratterizzarne l’attività decarbossilasica. Sono state monitorate la crescita microbica, mediante densità ottica e la produzione di tiramina e 2-feniletilamina mediante tecnica HPLC. Dai risultati ottenuti è emerso che entrambi i ceppi producono tiramina sia in presenza che in assenza del precursore. La concentrazione massima rilevata per il ceppo C46 è stata di 797 mg/l e 767 mg/l per C53. È inoltre emerso che essi possono decarbossilare la fenilalanina, ma solo dopo 8 e 24 ore di incubazione per il ceppo C46 e C53. Per quanto concerne la crescita, entrambi i ceppi hanno raggiunto il massimo valore di densità ottica dopo 6-8 ore a 37°C, con una durata della fase lag ridotta, seguita da un rapido aumento della densità ottica. Non sono state riscontrate differenze significative in termini di massima densità ottica raggiunta (A) e durata della fase lag (λ) tra i due ceppi, mentre C53 ha presentato valori inferiori per quanto riguarda la velocità incremento della densità ottica in fase esponenziale (µmax). Dagli studi genici è emerso che l’organizzazione dell’operone dei ceppi considerati corrisponde con quella filogeneticamente riconosciuta per il genere Enterococcus, ma nonostante la similarità, l’operone manca del gene codificante per l’antiporto Na+/H+. È stata inoltre evidenziata nel genoma dei ceppi considerati un’altra regione che contiene geni codificanti per un ulteriore sistema decarbossilasico.

Host cell responses of Salmonella typhimurium infected human dendritic cells

Live attenuated Salmonella are attractive vaccine candidates for mucosal application because they induce both mucosal immune responses and systematic immune responses. After breaking the epithelium barrier, Salmonella typhimurium is found within dendritic cells (DC) in the Peyer's patches. Although there are abundant data on the interaction of S. typhimurium with murine epithelial cells, macrophages and DC, little is known about its interaction with human DC. Live attenuated S. typhimurium have recently been shown to efficiently infect human DC in vitro and induce production of cytokines. In this study, we have analysed the morphological consequences of infection of human DC by the attenuated S. typhimurium mutant strains designated PhoPc, AroA and SipB and the wild-type strains of the American Type Culture Collection (Manassas, VA, USA), ATCC 14028 and ATCC C53, by electron microscopy at 30 min, 3 h and 24 h after exposure. Our results show that genetic background of the strains profoundly influence DC morphology following infection. The changes included (i) membrane ruffling; (ii) formation of tight or spacious phagosomes; (iii) apoptosis; and (iv) spherical, pedunculated membrane-bound microvesicles that project from the plasma membrane. Despite the fact that membrane ruffling was much more pronounced with the two virulent strains, all mutants were taken up by the DC. The microvesicles were induced by all the attenuated strains, including SipB, which did not induce apoptosis in the host cell. These results suggest that Salmonella is internalized by human DC, inducing morphological changes in the DC that could explain immunogenicity of the attenuated strains.

Forecasting inbound tourists in Cambodia

Forecasting tourism demand is crucial for management decisions in the tourism sector. Estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for monthly visitor arrivals disaggregated by three entry points in Cambodia for the years 2006–2015, I forecast the number of arrivals for years 2016 and 2017. The results show that the VAR model fits well with the data on visitor arrivals for each entry point. Ex post forecasting shows that the forecasts closely match the observed data for visitor arrivals, thereby supporting the forecasting accuracy of the VAR model. Visitor arrivals to Siem Reap and Phnom Penh airports are forecast to increase steadily in future periods, with varying fluctuations across months and origin countries of foreign tourists.