Buy-and-Hold Strategies and Comonotonic Approximations

[cat] En aquest article estudiem estratègies “comprar i mantenir” per a problemes d’optimitzar la riquesa final en un context multi-període. Com que la riquesa final és una suma de variables aleatòries dependents, on cadascuna d’aquestes correspon a una quantitat de capital que s’ha invertit en un actiu particular en una data determinada, en primer lloc considerem aproximacions que redueixen l’aleatorietat multivariant al cas univariant. A continuació, aquestes aproximacions es fan servir per determinar les estratègies “comprar i mantenir” que optimitzen, per a un nivell de probabilitat donat, el VaR i el CLTE de la funció de distribució de la riquesa final. Aquest article complementa el treball de Dhaene et al. (2005), on es van considerar estratègies de reequilibri constant.

Buy-and-Hold Strategies and Comonotonic Approximations

[cat] En aquest article estudiem estratègies “comprar i mantenir” per a problemes d’optimitzar la riquesa final en un context multi-període. Com que la riquesa final és una suma de variables aleatòries dependents, on cadascuna d’aquestes correspon a una quantitat de capital que s’ha invertit en un actiu particular en una data determinada, en primer lloc considerem aproximacions que redueixen l’aleatorietat multivariant al cas univariant. A continuació, aquestes aproximacions es fan servir per determinar les estratègies “comprar i mantenir” que optimitzen, per a un nivell de probabilitat donat, el VaR i el CLTE de la funció de distribució de la riquesa final. Aquest article complementa el treball de Dhaene et al. (2005), on es van considerar estratègies de reequilibri constant.

Kansainväliset yrityskaupat ja osakkeenomistajan hyvinvointi lyhyellä sekä pitkällä aikavälillä: Empiirinen tutkimus Suomen osakemarkkinoilta.

Tämän tutkielman tarkoituksena on selvittää luovatko kansainväliset yrityskaupat lisäarvoa osakkeenomistajille lyhyellä ja pitkällä aikavälillä. Lisäksi tarkastellaan onnistuneen kansainvälisen yrityskaupan taustalla vaikuttavia tekijöitä niin ostajan, kohdeyrityksen, markkina-alueen kuin yhdentymisprosessinkin näkökulmista. Tutkimusmenetelmänä lyhyen aikavälin lisäarvon mittaamisessa käytetään tapahtumatutkimusta ja pitkän aikavälin lisäarvon mittaamisessa buy and hold -menetelmää. Tutkimusaineiston muodostavat suomalaisten yritysten toteuttamat kansainväliset yrityskaupat vuosina 1993–2002. Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan yritysjoukkoa, jossa yrityskaupat ovat suuntautuneet Suomen bruttokansantuotteen kannalta tärkeimpiin vientimaihin. Empiiristen tulosten perusteella kansainväliset yrityskaupat luovat osakkeenomistajille lisäarvoa lyhyellä aikavälillä, mutta pitkällä aikavälillä kansainväliset yrityskaupat vaikuttavat negatiivisesti osakkeenomistajien hyvinvointiin.

Tuovatko pääomasijoittajat lisäarvoa? Suomessa listattujen osakkeiden tuottovertailu

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää listautumisantien suoriutumista Suomen markkinoilla, sekä verrata pääomasijoittajien ja muiden listaamia yrityksiä. Tutkimusperiodina käytetään 36 kuukautta. Lisäksi tutkitaan lyhyen ajanjakson tuottoja näiden välillä. Tutkimuksessa selvitetään myös se, miten kansainvälisellä aineistollahavaitut, listautumisanteihin liittyvät anomaliat toteutuvat Suomessa. Tutkimuksen aineisto koostuu 48 yrityksestä, jotka listautuivat Helsingin pörssiin vuosien 1996 - 2000 välillä. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytetään tapahtumatutkimusta. Kerätystä aineistosta lasketaan ylituotot kolmea eri menetelmää käyttämällä, eli lasketaan CAR-, BHAR- ja WR-ylituotot. Aineistolle tehdään myösregressio, jossa alisuoriutumista selitetään erilaisilla muuttujilla. Empiiristen tulosten mukaan listautumisannit keskimäärin alisuoriutuvat Suomen markkinoilla vertailukohteina käytettyihin indekseihin verrattuna. Tämän tulos tukee aiempia, kansainvälisiltä markkinoilta saatuja havaintoja. Sitä vastoin tämän tutkimuksen perusteella pääomasijoittajien listaamat yritykset alisuoriutuvat enemmän kuin muut listatut yritykset. Tämä havainto poikkeaa kansainvälisellä aineistolla tehdyistä tutkimuksista. Tutkittaessa portfolioiden ominaisuuksia, havaittiin erityisesti listautumisvuoden selittävän alisuoriutumisen voimakkuutta.

Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

Are price limits on futures markets that cool?: evidence from the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange

This paper investigates the impact of price limits on the Brazilian futures markets using high frequency data. The aim is to identify whether there is a cool-off or a magnet effect. For that purpose, we examine a tick-by-tick data set that includes all contracts on the S˜ao Paulo stock index futures traded on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange from January 1997 to December 1999. The results indicate that the conditional mean features a floor cool-off effect, whereas the conditional variance significantly increases as the price approaches the upper limit. We then build a trading strategy that accounts for the cool-off effect in the conditional mean so as to demonstrate that the latter has not only statistical, but also economic significance. The in-sample Sharpe ratio indeed is way superior to the buy-and-hold benchmarks we consider, whereas out-of-sample results evince similar performances.

The growing importance of the ETF industry - the pros and cons of passive management

O objectivo deste projecto é a comparação entre os prós e contras de gestão passiva e ativa através da realização de um estudo estatístico de várias estratégias através dos Exchange-Traded Funds. Em particular, a análise vai passar pela estratégia mais passiva, ou seja, buy and hold, para um grau diferente de active indexing management, tais como rotações do sector e / ou classe de ativos com base no bottom-up, top-down e indicadores técnicos. A análise mostra que as estratégias ativas, se forem devidamente aplicadas, conseguem obter retornos ajustados ao risco substancialmente superiores quando comparados com uma abordagem passiva, superando as questões de custos de transação e diversificação que normalmente são reivindicadas por uma gestão passiva.

Make, buy and and cooperate in innovation: evidence from Uruguayan manufacturing surveys and other innovation studies

Includes bibliography

Latin American trade, how to get and hold it,

Mode of access: Internet.

What price life insurance? : Not how but what to sell or buy--and why, facts and supporting figures which prove the fallacy of the self-serving propaganda of those "term-ites" who seek to undermine confidence in legal reserve (old line) life insurance /

Mode of access: Internet.

How to attract and hold an audience; a practical treatise on the nature, preparation, and delivery of public discourse,

Mode of access: Internet.

A model burglar and hold-up alarm business licensing and regulatory statute : a report.

"April 1975."

Predicting market movement with Artificial Neural Networks

This paper presents an application of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to the prediction of stock market direction in the US. Using a multilayer perceptron neural network and a backpropagation algorithm for the training process, the model aims at learning the hidden patterns in the daily movement of the S&P500 to correctly identify if the market will be in a Trend Following or Mean Reversion behavior. The ANN is able to produce a successful investment strategy which outperforms the buy and hold strategy, but presents instability in its overall results which compromises its practical application in real life investment decisions.

Self-Fulfilling Price Cycles

This paper presents a model of a self-fulfilling price cycle in an asset market. Price oscillates deterministically even though the underlying environment is stationary. The mechanism that we uncover is driven by endogenous variation in the investment horizons of the different market participants, informed and uninformed. On even days, the price is high; on odd days it is low. On even days, informed traders are willing to jettison their good assets, knowing that they can buy them back the next day, when the price is low. The anticipated drop in price more than offsets any potential loss in dividend. Because of these asset sales, the informed build up their cash holdings. Understanding that the market is flooded with good assets, the uninformed traders are willing to pay a high price. But their investment horizon is longer than that of the informed traders: their intention is to hold the assets they purchase, not to resell. On odd days, the price is low because the uninformed recognise that the informed are using their cash holdings to cherry-pick good assets from the market. Now the uninformed, like the informed, are investing short-term. Rather than buy-and-hold as they do with assets purchased on even days, on odd days the uninformed are buying to sell. Notice that, at the root of the model, there lies a credit constraint. Although the informed are flush with cash on odd days, they are not deep pockets. On each cherry that they pick out of the market, they earn a high return: buying cheap, selling dear. However they don't have enough cash to strip the market of cherries and thereby bid the price up.