Parameter estimation in the presence of auxiliary information

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutora em Estatística e Gestão de Risco, Especialidade em Estatística

Design-based random permutation models with auxiliary information

We extend the random permutation model to obtain the best linear unbiased estimator of a finite population mean accounting for auxiliary variables under simple random sampling without replacement (SRS) or stratified SRS. The proposed method provides a systematic design-based justification for well-known results involving common estimators derived under minimal assumptions that do not require specification of a functional relationship between the response and the auxiliary variables.

Erosion factors and magnetic susceptibility in differet compartments of a slope in Gilbués-PI, Brazil

The erosion is the degradation of soil with effects on crop productivity and pollution of the environment. To understand the spatial variability of this phenomenon, geostatistical techniques and concepts of soil-landscape can be used to identify landscape compartments with different potential of erosion. The aim of this study was to understand the factors of erosion in landscape compartments and the relations with the magnetic susceptibility (MS) of the soils in a slope in Gilbués, state of Piauí (PI), Brazil. Sampling meshes were set in compartments I and II with 121 points and in compartment III with 99 points spaced every 10 meters. There was significant difference to erodibility (K) and risk of erosion (RE); the spatial variability of MS was lower than the factors of soil erosion. The soil losses (A), the natural erosion potential (NEP), the RE and the MS had spatial relation with the topographic factor, indicating dependence of the erosion with the relief. We concluded that losses of soil, natural erosion potential and risk of erosion have spatial relation with the topographic factor, showing the dependence of the erosion factors with the relief. The soil magnetic susceptibility can be used as an auxiliary variable in the indirect quantification of the erodibility factor and the risk of soil erosion.

Erosion factors and magnetic susceptibility in differet compartments of a slope in Gilbués-PI, Brazil

A erosão é a forma de degradação do solo com efeitos na produtividade das culturas e na poluição do meio ambiente. Para compreender a variabilidade espacial desse fenômeno, técnicas geoestatísticas e conceitos da relação solo-paisagem podem ser utilizados para identificar compartimentos da paisagem com diferentes potenciais de erosão. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estabelecer elementos para a compreensão dos fatores de erosão em compartimentos da paisagem e das relações com a suscetibilidade magnética (SM) dos solos de uma vertente no município de Gilbués -PI. Foram montadas malhas de amostragem nos compartimentos I e II, com 121 pontos, e compartimento III, com 99 pontos, espaçados a cada 10 m. Houve diferença significativa para erodibilidade (K) e risco de erosão (RE); a variabilidade espacial da SM foi menor do que a dos fatores de erosão do solo. As perdas de solo (A), potencial natural de erosão (PNE), RE e SM tiveram relação espacial com o fator topográfico, indicando dependência da erosão ao relevo. Concluiu-se que as perdas de solo, o potencial natural de erosão e o risco de erosão apresentaram relação espacial com o fator topográfico, comprovando a dependência dos fatores de erosão ao relevo. A suscetibilidade magnética do solo pode ser utilizada como variável auxiliar na quantificação indireta do fator erodibilidade e do risco de erosão do solo.

New approach of induction machine drive using an adaptive digital PID controller with gain planning based on artificial neural networks

The present work introduces a new strategy of induction machines speed adjustment using an adaptive PID (Proportional Integral Derivative) digital controller with gain planning based on the artificial neural networks. This digital controller uses an auxiliary variable to determine the ideal induction machine operating conditions and to establish the closed loop gain of the system. The auxiliary variable value can be estimated from the information stored in a general-purpose artificial neural network based on CMAC (Cerebellar Model Articulation Controller).

Diagnóstico da influência da bacia hidrográfica na qualidade da água do Ribeirão Baguaçu (Araçatuba, SP)

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil - FEIS

Utilização da geoestatística na construção de mapas de temperatura média mensal para o Estado do Paraná

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Spatial distribution of the soil carbon pool in a Holm oak dehesa in Spain

Aims Dehesas are agroforestry systems characterized by scattered trees among pastures, crops and/or fallows. A study at a Spanish dehesa has been carried out to estimate the spatial distribution of the soil organic carbon stock and to assess the influence of the tree cover. Methods The soil organic carbon stock was estimated from the five uppermost cm of themineral soil with high spatial resolution at two plots with different grazing intensities. The Universal Kriging technique was used to assess the spatial distribution of the soil organic carbon stocks, using tree coverage within a buffering area as an auxiliary variable. Results A significant positive correlation between tree presence and soil organic carbon stocks up to distances of around 8 m from the trees was found. The tree crown cover within a buffer up to a distance similar to the crown radius around the point absorbed 30 % of the variance in the model for both grazing intensities, but residual variance showed stronger spatial autocorrelation under regular grazing conditions. Conclusions Tree cover increases soil organic carbon stocks, and can be satisfactorily estimated by means of crown parameters. However, other factors are involved in the spatial pattern of the soil organic carbon distribution. Livestock plays an interactive role together with tree presence in soil organic carbon distribution.

Cooperative localization in mobile networks using nonparametric variants of belief propagation

Of the many state-of-the-art methods for cooperative localization in wireless sensor networks (WSN), only very few adapt well to mobile networks. The main problems of the well-known algorithms, based on nonparametric belief propagation (NBP), are the high communication cost and inefficient sampling techniques. Moreover, they either do not use smoothing or just apply it o ine. Therefore, in this article, we propose more flexible and effcient variants of NBP for cooperative localization in mobile networks. In particular, we provide: i) an optional 1-lag smoothing done almost in real-time, ii) a novel low-cost communication protocol based on package approximation and censoring, iii) higher robustness of the standard mixture importance sampling (MIS) technique, and iv) a higher amount of information in the importance densities by using the population Monte Carlo (PMC) approach, or an auxiliary variable. Through extensive simulations, we confirmed that all the proposed techniques outperform the standard NBP method.

Critère de validation croisée pour le choix des modèles des petits domaines au niveau des unités

Ce mémoire s’intéresse à l’étude du critère de validation croisée pour le choix des modèles relatifs aux petits domaines. L’étude est limitée aux modèles de petits domaines au niveau des unités. Le modèle de base des petits domaines est introduit par Battese, Harter et Fuller en 1988. C’est un modèle de régression linéaire mixte avec une ordonnée à l’origine aléatoire. Il se compose d’un certain nombre de paramètres : le paramètre β de la partie fixe, la composante aléatoire et les variances relatives à l’erreur résiduelle. Le modèle de Battese et al. est utilisé pour prédire, lors d’une enquête, la moyenne d’une variable d’intérêt y dans chaque petit domaine en utilisant une variable auxiliaire administrative x connue sur toute la population. La méthode d’estimation consiste à utiliser une distribution normale, pour modéliser la composante résiduelle du modèle. La considération d’une dépendance résiduelle générale, c’est-à-dire autre que la loi normale donne une méthodologie plus flexible. Cette généralisation conduit à une nouvelle classe de modèles échangeables. En effet, la généralisation se situe au niveau de la modélisation de la dépendance résiduelle qui peut être soit normale (c’est le cas du modèle de Battese et al.) ou non-normale. L’objectif est de déterminer les paramètres propres aux petits domaines avec le plus de précision possible. Cet enjeu est lié au choix de la bonne dépendance résiduelle à utiliser dans le modèle. Le critère de validation croisée sera étudié à cet effet.

Spatio-temporal modeling of data imputation for daily rainfall series in homogeneous zones.

Spatio-temporal modelling is an area of increasing importance in which models and methods have often been developed to deal with specific applications. In this study, a spatio-temporal model was used to estimate daily rainfall data. Rainfall records from several weather stations, obtained from the Agritempo system for two climatic homogeneous zones, were used. Rainfall values obtained for two fixed dates (January 1 and May 1, 2012) using the spatio-temporal model were compared with the geostatisticals techniques of ordinary kriging and ordinary cokriging with altitude as auxiliary variable. The spatio-temporal model was more than 17% better at producing estimates of daily precipitation compared to kriging and cokriging in the first zone and more than 18% in the second zone. The spatio-temporal model proved to be a versatile technique, adapting to different seasons and dates.

Power Consumption in Carbon Capture and Storage Systems (CCS) and Possibilities to Reduce Power Consumption with Variable Speed Drives

The aim of this master´s thesis is to study which processes increase the auxiliary power consumption in carbon capture and storage processes and if it is possible to reduce the auxiliary power consumption with variable speed drives. Also the cost of carbon capture and storage is studied. Data about auxiliary power consumption in carbon capture is gathered from various studies and estimates made by various research centres. Based on these studies a view is presented how the power auxiliary power consumption is divided between different processes in carbon capture processes. In a literary study, the operation of three basic carbon capture systems is described. Also different methods to transport carbon dioxide and carbon dioxide storage options are described in this section. At the end of the thesis processes that consume most of the auxiliary power are defined and possibilities to reduce the auxiliary power consumption are evaluated. Cost of carbon capture, transport and storage are also evaluated at this point and in the case that the carbon capture and storage systems are fully deployed. According to the results, it can be estimated what are the processes are where variable speed drives can be used and what kind of cost and power consumption reduction could be achieved. Results also show how large a project carbon capture and storage is if it is fully deployed.

Development of variable displacement oil pump for internal combustion engines

In the last years the need to develop more environmentally friendly and efficient cars as led to the development of several technologies to improve the performance of internal combustion engines, a large part of the innovations are focused in the auxiliary systems of the engine, including, the oil pump, this is an element of great importance in the dynamics of the engine as well a considerable energy consumer. Most solutions for oil pumps to this day are fixed displacement, for medium and high speeds, the pump flow rate is higher than the needs of the engine, this excess flow leads to the need for recirculation of the fluid which represents a waste of energy. Recently, technological advances in this area have led to the creation of variable displacement oil pumps, these have become a 'must have' due to the numerous advantages they bring, although the working principle of vane or piston pumps is relatively well known, the application of this technology for the automotive industry is new and brings new challenges. The focus of this dissertation is to develop a new concept of variable displacement system for automotive oil pumps. The main objective is to obtain a concept that is totally adaptable to existing solutions on the market (engines), both dimensionally as in performance specifications, having at the same time an innovative mechanical system for obtaining variable displacement. The developed design is a vane pump with variable displacement going in line with existing commercial solutions, however, the variation of the eccentricity commonly used to provide an variable displacement delivery is not used, the variable displacement is achieved without varying the eccentricity of the system but with a variation of the length of the pumping chamber. The principle of operation of the pump is different to existing solutions while maintaining the ability to integrate standard parts such as control valves and mechanical safety valves, the pump is compatible with commercial solutions in terms of interfaces for connection between engine systems and pump. A concept prototype of the product was obtained in order to better evaluate the validity of the concept. The developed concept represents an innovation in oil pumps design, being unique in its mechanical system for variable displacement delivery.

Petroleomics By Electrospray Ionization Ft-icr Mass Spectrometry Coupled To Partial Least Squares With Variable Selection Methods: Prediction Of The Total Acid Number Of Crude Oils.

Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

Skewed Distribution of Circulating Activated Natural Killer T (NKT) Cells in Patients with Common Variable Immunodeficiency Disorders (CVID)

Common variable immunodeficiency disorder (CVID) is the commonest cause of primary antibody failure in adults and children, and characterized clinically by recurrent bacterial infections and autoimmune manifestations. Several innate immune defects have been described in CVID, but no study has yet investigated the frequency, phenotype or function of the key regulatory cell population, natural killer T (NKT) cells. We measured the frequencies and subsets of NKT cells in patients with CVID and compared these to healthy controls. Our results show a skewing of NKT cell subsets, with CD4+ NKT cells at higher frequencies, and CD8+ NKT cells at lower frequencies. However, these cells were highly activated and expression CD161. The NKT cells had a higher expression of CCR5 and concomitantly expression of CCR5+CD69+CXCR6 suggesting a compensation of the remaining population of NKT cells for rapid effector action.