Regional projections of extreme apparent temperature days in Africa and the related potential risk to human health

Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?

Hot and cold temperatures significantly increase mortality rates around the world, but which measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality is not known. We used mortality data from 107 US cities for the years 1987–2000 and examined the association between temperature and mortality using Poisson regression and modelled a non-linear temperature effect and a non-linear lag structure. We examined mean, minimum and maximum temperature with and without humidity, and apparent temperature and the Humidex. The best measure was defined as that with the minimum cross-validated residual. We found large differences in the best temperature measure between age groups, seasons and cities, and there was no one temperature measure that was superior to the others. The strong correlation between different measures of temperature means that, on average, they have the same predictive ability. The best temperature measure for new studies can be chosen based on practical concerns, such as choosing the measure with the least amount of missing data.

Oxygen-isotope composition, temperature and depth of formation of chert at DSDP Leg 62 Holes

We measured oxygen-isotope compositions of 16 siliceous rocks from Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 463, 464, 465, and 466 (Leg 62). Samples are from deposits that range in age from about 40 to 103 m.y. and that occur at sub-bottom depths of 9 to 461 meters. Mean d18O values range from 28.4 to 36.8 per mil and 36.0 ± 0.3 per mil for quartz-rich and opal-CTrich rocks, respectively. d18O values in chert decrease with increasing sub-bottom depth; the slope of the d18O/depth curve is less steep for Site 464 than for the other sites which indicates that chert at Site 464 formed at higher temperatures than chert at Sites 463, 465, and 466. Temperatures of formation of cherts were 7 to 42°C, using the silica-water fractionation factor of Knauth and Epstein (1976), or 19 to 56°C, using the equation of Clayton et al. (1972). Temperatures in the sediment where the cherts now occur are lower than their isotopically determined temperatures of formation, which means that the cherts record an earlier history when temperatures in the sediment section were greater. Estimated sediment temperatures when the cherts formed are comparable to, but generally slightly lower than, those calculated from Knauth and Epstein's equation. The isotopic composition of cherts is more closely related to environment of formation (diagenetic environment) or paleogeothermal gradients, than to paleoclimates (bottom-water temperatures). Opal-CT-rich rocks may better record paleo-bottom-water temperature. In Leg 62 cherts, better crystallinity of quartz corresponds to lower d18O values; this implies progressively higher temperatures of equilibration between quartz and water during maturation of quartz. The interrelationship of d18O and crystallinity is noted also in continental-margin deposits such as the Monterey Formation - but for higher temperatures. The apparent temperature difference between open-ocean and continental-margin deposits can be explained by the dominant control of temperature on silica transformation in the rapidly deposited continental-margin deposits, whereas time, as well as temperature, has a strong influence on the transformations in open-ocean deposits. Comparisons between the chemistry and d18O values of cherts reveal two apparent trends: both boron and SiO2 increase as d18O increases. However, the correspondence between SiO2 and d18O is only apparent, because the two cherts lowest in SiO2 are also the most deeply buried, so the trend actually reflects depth of burial. The correspondence between boron and d18O supports the conclusion that boron is incorporated in the quartz crystal structure during precipitation

Investigating variation in bus ridership rates within localised areas of a sub-tropical city

This thesis makes a significant contribution to knowledge and understanding of 'Human Travel Behaviour' in relation to transportation research. It holds some important merits that have not been proposed before. It develops a new, comprehensive and meaningful relationship that includes bus transit ridership change due to weather variables, seasonality and transit quality of service within a single daily ridership rate estimation model. The research incorporated both temporal and spatial influences on ridership within a modelling structure, named as the Nested Model Structure. It provides a complete picture of ridership variation across the sub-tropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

Time dependence of rotational state populations of excited hydrogen molecules in an RF excited plasma reactor

We report on time-dependent population distributions of excited rotational states of hydrogen in a capacitively coupled RF discharge. The common model to obtain the gas temperature from the rotational distribution is not applicable at all times during the discharge cycle due to the time dependence of the EEDF. The apparent temperature within a cycle assumes values between 350 K and 450 K for the discharge parameters of this experiment. We discuss the optimum time window within the discharge cycle that yields the best approximation to the actual temperature. Erroneous results can be obtained, in principle, with time-integrated measurements; we find, however, that in the present case the systematic error amounts to only approximately 20 K. This is due to the fact that the dominant contribution to the average intensity arises during that time window for which the assumptions underlying the analysis are best fulfilled. A similar analysis can be performed for N+2 rotational bands with a small amount of nitrogen added to the discharge gas. These populations do not exhibit the time variations found in the case of H2.

How do green roofs mitigate urban thermal stress under heat waves?

As the climate warms, heat waves (HW) are projected to be more intense and to last longer, with serious implications for public health. Urban residents face higher health risks because urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate HW conditions. One strategy to mitigate negative impacts of urban thermal stress is the installation of green roofs (GRs) given their evaporative cooling effect. However, the effectiveness of GRs and the mechanisms by which they have an effect at the scale of entire cities are still largely unknown. The Greater Beijing Region (GBR) is modeled for a HW scenario with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a state-of-the-art urban canopy model (PUCM) to examine the effectiveness of GRs. The results suggest GR would decrease near-surface air temperature (ΔT2max = 2.5 K) and wind speed (ΔUV10max = 1.0 m s-1) but increase atmospheric humidity (ΔQ2max = 1.3 g kg-1). GRs are simulated to lessen the overall thermal stress as indicated by apparent temperature (ΔAT2max = 1.7 °C). The modifications by GRs scale almost linearly with the fraction of the surface they cover. Investigation of the surface-atmosphere interactions indicate that GRs with plentiful soil moisture dissipate more of the surface energy as latent heat flux and subsequently inhibit the development of the daytime planetary boundary layer (PBL). This causes the atmospheric heating through entrainment at the PBL top to be decreased. Additionally, urban GRs modify regional circulation regimes leading to decreased advective heating under HW.

Estudo de ilhas de calor no município de Piratininga/SP, por meio de dados orbitais do landsat 5 sensor tm

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Modelos computacionais fuzzy e neuro-fuzzy para avaliarem os efeitos da poluição do ar

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Estudo das ilhas de calor no município de piratininga/sp, por meio de dados orbitais.

The massive urbanization and activities arising from the uncontrolled growth of urban areas, result in changes on the climate, making it unhealthy. One factor that contributes to poor quality of life due to this fact is the islands of heat that consists in the accumulation of surface heat and raises the temperature in the cities. The vegetation consists of urban greening, urban forests and green areas, have the function to minimize this effect. To reconcile these factors, collected data on surface temperature by satellite images, LANDSAT 5 captured on 18/12/2012 point 75 e 76, orbits 221, band 6 and on-site survey with thermo-hygrometer, possessed the data, crossing the conducted vegetative survey and provided a management vision to improve the microclimate of the city under study. The vegetation coverage at urban area directly affects the ambient temperature, improving the urban micro-climate. The different analyzed surface coverage also affects the apparent temperature. Among the studied ranks, the eucalyptus cultivation, native forest, urban area and solo exposed areas with greater vegetation cover have mild temperatures and improved microclimate.

Asymptotic analysis of vertical geothermal boreholes in the limit of slowly varyng heat injection rates

Theoretical models for the thermal response of vertical geothermal boreholes often assume that the characteristic time of variation of the heat injection rate is much larger than the characteristic diffusion time across the borehole. In this case, heat transfer inside the borehole and in its immediate surroundings is quasi-steady in the first approximation, while unsteady effects enter only in the far field. Previous studies have exploited this disparity of time scales, incorporating approximate matching conditions to couple the near-borehole region with the outer unsteady temperatura field. In the present work matched asymptotic expansion techniques are used to analyze the heat transfer problem, delivering a rigorous derivation of the true matching condition between the two regions and of the correct definition of the network of thermal resistances that represents the quasi-steady solution near the borehole. Additionally, an apparent temperature due to the unsteady far field is identified that needs to be taken into account by the near-borehole region for the correct computation of the heat injection rate. This temperature differs from the usual mean borehole temperature employed in the literatura.

Planktonic foraminifera in sediments of the Ibero-Moroccan Continental Margin

Recent clays cover the East Atlantic continental slopes. They are gray and poor in sand off Portugal (Cape Sines), but reddish brown to reddish gray and richer in sand off Morocco (Cape Mazagan). The majority of the 19 sediment cores, which were taken mainly on two profiles (Fig. 3), can be correlated by means of planktonic foraminifera (Figs. 27, 28). The following parameters seem to be well suited for this purpose: qualitative and quantitative distribution of the planktonic foraminiferal species and faunas, coiling ratios of three Globorotalia-species: G. crassaformis, G. hirsuta and G. truncatulinoides. Sediments from about 2000 m water depth show highest sedimentation rates off Portugal (> 20 cm/1000 yrs.), but off Morocco the lowest sedimentation rates (about 3 cm/1000 yrs.). The sediments are dated with planktonic foraminifera and 31 radiocarbon analyses and the stratigraphic interpretation is supported by the lithostratigraphy. Holocene faunas are distinguished from the Pleistocene ones by differences in species composition, lower dominances and higher diversities. The Holocene sediments show smaller differences of the foraminiferal numbers than the Pleistocene ones. During Holocene and Pleistocene the temperatures of the surface water masses (indicated by the planktonic foraminiferal faunas) show similar values nearshore and offshore off Morocco. Likewise, there is no apparent temperature gradient in the Pleistocene off Portugal; whereas here values increase offshore during the Holocene. The proportion of species indicating warmer water masses is generally higher off Morocco. The plankton/benthos ratio increases with water depth and reaches maximum values already at about 1000 m. The production rate for planktonic foraminifera is higher in the continental slope regions than in the open ocean, but their shells show typical solution phenomena already in water depths of less than 1000 m. A higher solutional rate was found in sediments from the Tagus Abyssal Plain, while sediments from Horse Shoe and Seine Abyssal Plain seem to be better preserved. In the Tagus Abyssal Plain solution is less important during late Pleistocene than during Holocene.

An isotopic analysis of geothermal brine and calcite scaling from the Blue Mountain geothermal field, Winnemucca, Nevada

Understanding, and controlling, the conditions under which calcite precipitates within geothermal energy production systems is a key step in maintaining production efficiency. In this study, I apply methods of bulk and clumped isotope thermometry to an operating geothermal energy facility in northern Nevada to see how those methods can better inform the facility owner, AltaRock Energy, Inc., about the occurrence of calcite scale in their power plant. I have taken water samples from five production wells, the combined generator effluent, shallow cold-water wells, monitoring wells, and surface water. I also collected calcite scale samples from within the production system. Water samples were analyzed for stable oxygen isotope composition (d18O). Calcite samples were analyzed for stable oxygen and carbon (d13C) composition, and clumped isotope composition (D47). With two exceptions, the water compositions are very similar, likely indicating common origin and a well-mixed hydrothermal system. The calcite samples are likewise similar to one another. Apparent temperatures calculated from d18O values of water and calcite are lower than those recorded for the system. Apparent temperatures calculated from D47 are several degrees higher than the recorded well temperatures. The lower temperatures from the bulk isotope data are consistent with temperatures that could be expected during a de-pressurization of the production system, which would cause boiling in the pipes, a reduction in system temperature, and rapid precipitation of calcite scale. However, the high apparent temperature indicated by the D47 data suggests that the calcite is depleted in clumped isotopes given the known temperature of the system, which is inconsistent with this hypothesis. This depletion could instead result from disequilibrium isotopic fractionation during the aforementioned boil events, which would make both the apparent d18O-based and D47-based temperatures unrepresentative of the actual water temperature. This research can help improve our understanding of how isotopic analyses can better inform us about the movement of water through geothermal systems of the past and how it now moves through modern systems. Increased understanding of water movement in these systems could potentially allow for more efficient utilization of geothermal energy as a renewable resource.

The tribology of linear tape recording systems

This thesis is devoted to the tribology at the head~to~tape interface of linear tape recording systems, OnStream ADRTM system being used as an experimental platform, Combining experimental characterisation with computer modelling, a comprehensive picture of the mechanisms involved in a tape recording system is drawn. The work is designed to isolate the mechanisms responsible for the physical spacing between head and tape with the aim of minimising spacing losses and errors and optimising signal output. Standard heads-used in ADR current products-and prototype heads- DLC and SPL coated and dummy heads built from a AI203-TiC and alternative single-phase ceramics intended to constitute the head tape-bearing surface-are tested in controlled environment for up to 500 hours (exceptionally 1000 hours), Evidences of wear on the standard head are mainly observable as a preferential wear of the TiC phase of the AI203-TiC ceramic, The TiC grains are believed to delaminate due to a fatigue wear mechanism, a hypothesis further confirmed via modelling, locating the maximum von Mises equivalent stress at a depth equivalent to the TiC recession (20 to 30 nm). Debris of TiC delaminated residues is moreover found trapped within the pole-tip recession, assumed therefore to provide three~body abrasive particles, thus increasing the pole-tip recession. Iron rich stain is found over the cycled standard head surface (preferentially over the pole-tip and to a lesser extent over the TiC grains) at any environment condition except high temperature/humidity, where mainly organic stain was apparent, Temperature (locally or globally) affects staining rate and aspect; stain transfer is generally promoted at high temperature. Humidity affects transfer rate and quantity; low humidity produces, thinner stains at higher rate. Stain generally targets preferentially head materials with high electrical conductivity, i.e. Permalloy and TiC. Stains are found to decrease the friction at the head-to-tape interface, delay the TiC recession hollow-out and act as a protective soft coating reducing the pole-tip recession. This is obviously at the expense of an additional spacing at the head-to-tape interface of the order of 20 nm. Two kinds of wear resistant coating are tested: diamond like carbon (DLC) and superprotective layer (SPL), 10 nm and 20 to 40 nm thick, respectively. DLC coating disappears within 100 hours due possibly to abrasive and fatigue wear. SPL coatings are generally more resistant, particularly at high temperature and low humidity, possibly in relation with stain transfer. 20 nm coatings are found to rely on the substrate wear behaviour whereas 40 nm coatings are found to rely on the adhesive strength at the coating/substrate interface. These observations seem to locate the wear-driving forces 40 nm below the surface, hence indicate that for coatings in the 10 nm thickness range-· i,e. compatible with high-density recording-the substrate resistance must be taken into account. Single-phase ceramic as candidate for wear-resistant tape-bearing surface are tested in form of full-contour dummy-heads. The absence of a second phase eliminates the preferential wear observed at the AI203-TiC surface; very low wear rates and no evidence of brittle fracture are observed.

Apparent shortening of the Csp(3)-Csp(3) bond analysed via a variable-temperature X-ray diffraction study in racemic 1,1 '-binaphthalene-2,2 '-diyl diethyl bis(carbonate)

Crystal structure determination at room temperature [292 (2) K] of racemic 1,1'-binaphthalene-2,2'-diyl diethyl bis(carbonate), C26H22O6, showed that one of the terminal carbon-carbon bond lengths is very short [Csp(3)-Csp(3) = 1.327 (6) angstrom]. The reason for such a short bond length has been analysed by collecting data sets on the same crystal at 393, 150 and 90 K. The values of the corrected bond lengths clearly suggest that the shortening is mainly due to positional disorder at two sites, with minor perturbations arising as a result of thermal vibrations. The positional disorder has been resolved in the analysis of the 90 K data following the changes in the unit-cell parameters for the data sets at 150 and 90 K, which appear to be an artifact of a near centre of symmetry relationship between the two independent molecules in the space group P (1) over bar at these temperatures. Indeed, the unit cell at low temperature (150 and 90 K) is a supercell of the room-temperature unit cell.

Sea surface temperature and the distribution and apparent abundance of skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, 1951-1968

ENGLISH: Isograms of sea surface temperature (OC) have been produced for 1949-1968 for the areas of the eastern Pacific Ocean in which the majority of the skipjack catch is taken. These are in the immediate coastal zone, California (35° N) to Chile (20 0 S), and the Revillagigedo and Galapagos Islands groups. Skipjack occurrence and apparent abundance (as CSDF, i.e., catch per standard days fishing, standardized in purse-seiner units) for 1951-1968 were then superimposed on the surface temperature isograms. Results show that skipjack occur at surface temperatures> 17° C but with the majority between 20°-30° C. Apparent abundance at CSDF > 1 ton/day is normally Iimited to 20°29° C water, except in two areas in certain years; from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to Cape Mala rates of 1-9 tons/day are relatively common at 29°-30° C, and off Chimbote (Peru) occasionally >9 tons/day are recorded down to 18° C. As expected there were no apparent relationships between annual thermal conditions in the coastal zone and skipjack abundance (total catch or indices of abundance) in the same or 2 subsequent years. An Appendix to the report determines the quantitative relationships between surface temperature and skipjack abundance in relatively small areal strata in Baja California waters in 1955 and 1958. Relationships generally appeared significant and opposite in these years when temperatures were respectively anomalously cold and warm. SPANISH: Se han producido isogramas de la temperatura de la superficie del mar (OC) para 1949-1968 correspondientes a las áreas del Océano Pacífico oriental en donde se obtiene la mayor parte de la captura de barrilete. Estas se encuentran ubicadas en la zona costanera inmediata, desde California (35°N) hasta Chile (200S) y en las Islas Revillagigedo y Galápagos. La ocurrencia de barrilete y su abundancia aparente (expresada como CDSP standardizada en unidades de cerqueros) para 1951-1968 fueron luego superpuestas en los isogramas de la temperatura superficial. Los resultados demuestran que el barrilete aparece en temperaturas superficiales de > 17°C pero la mayoría entre los 20°C-30°C. La abundancia aparente de la CDSP > 1 tonelada/día se limita normalmente a aguas de 20°-29°C, excepto en dos áreas en ciertos años; desde el Golfo de Tehuantepec a Cabo Mala las tasas de 1-9 toneladas/día son relativamente comunes en los 29°-30°C, y frente a Chimbote (Perú) se registran ocasionalmente> 9 toneladas/día a una temperatura tan fría como de 18°C. Como era de esperarse no existió una relación aparente entre las condiciones térmicas anuales de la zona costanera y la abundancia del barrilete (captura total o índices de abundancia) en el mismo año o en los 2 años siguientes. Un Apéndice del informe determina la relación cuantitativa entre la temperatura superficial y la abundancia del barrilete en un estrato de áreas relativamente pequeño en las aguas de Baja California en 1955 y 1968. Las relaciones generalmente aparecieron significativas y opuestas en esos años cuando las temperaturas fueron respectivamente anómalamente frías y calientes. (PDF contains 53 pages.)