Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region

Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.

Development of a sensitive passive sampler using indigotrisulfonate for the determination of tropospheric ozone

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Sugar markers in aerosol particles from an agro-industrial region in Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A New and Simple Visual Technique Based on Indigo Dye for Determination of Ozone in Ambient Air

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Evolução da tectônica rúptil no nordeste do Brasil baseada na termocronologia por traço de fissão em apatita

Results of apatite fission tracks from twelve samples collected across a Borborema Province transect, northeastern Brazil, revealed two major paleothermal events: a cooling event occurred between Albian and late Cenomanian (110 - 80 Ma) and a second cooling event starting on early Paleocene (66 Ma). Given the wide expression of the studied area (sampling trend along four brazilian states) a correlation between the distribution of fission track data and the current geological / geomorphological scenario was made possible, considering the area’s tectono - stratigraphic past and its thermochronologic evolution until now. The fact that the employed thermochronologic tool relates to a relatively shallow geothermometer, substancially information for understanding the behavior of basement brittle tectonic was achieved. These data were used to analyze faults origin and reactivation, associated with sedimentary basins evolution in the context of South America - Africa continental breakup.

"Will It Rain?" Activities Investigating Aerosol Hygroscopicity and Deliquescence

Climate change and its consequences seem to be increasingly evident in our daily lives. However, is it possible for students to identify a relationship between these large-scale events and the chemistry taught in the classroom? The aim of the present work is to demonstrate that chemistry can assist in elucidating important environmental issues. Simple experiments are used to demonstrate the mechanism of cloud formation, as well as the influence of anthropogenic and natural emissions on the precipitation process. The experiments presented show the way in which particles of soluble salts commonly found in the environment can absorb water in the atmosphere and influence cloud formation.

Total sugars in atmospheric aerosols: an alternative tracer for biomass burning

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Raman Lidar monitors emissions from sugar cane fires in the State of São Paulo: a pilot-project integrating radar, sodar, aerosol and gas observations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Chemical composition of the soluble fraction of oxidate portions of Lakes Shebadnowan ferromanganese concretions

Shebandowan Lakes, Ontario, are the site of at least 49 shallow (2-12 m) ferromanganese concretion deposits, widely distributed throughout the 48 km of the watercourse. X-ray diffraction and Mossbauer methods have revealed the presence of goethite in some of the concretions. Chemical analyses of the acid soluble portions of 72 samples gave an average composition of 43.1% Fe and 5.65% Mn with a low content of trace elements. The Shebandowan concretions are among the richest in iron of lake concretions reported, possibly because only the acid soluble portion was analysed. Their low content of trace elements suggests rapid growth rates and a relatively young age. A positive correlation was found between Mn and K, Ca, Mg, Cu, Ni, and Co and the relationship between the last three and Mn was deemed significant. Zn was independent of association with either Mn and Fe, probably due to the presence locally of zinc sulphide deposits. Analyses of lake bottom and influent waters suggested that frequent resampling of the sites would be required throughout the year to permit meaningful interpretation of the effect of water composition of concretions. Analyses of sediment cores from 20 concretion sites indicated an upward increase in Fe and Mn and in the Mn/Fe ratio, consistent with the model of upward migration of the elements, where Mn is more mobile than Fe. This study concludes that a considerable proportion of the elements have been supplied to the Shebandowan concretions via the diagenetic process; generally a minor fraction of the elements has been abstracted directly from the superjacent water.

Fratris Rogeri Bacon Compendium studii theologiae

Bibliography: p. 71-112.

Roger Bacon essays,

--Roger Bacon in English literature, by Sir John Edwin Sandys.--Roger Bacon's works, with reference to the mss. and printed editions, by A. G. Little (p. [375]-425, [1])

Hark! the herald angels sing,

Mode of access: Internet.