Verification of the role of the low level jets in Amazon squall lines

In this study we present a climatology of the Amazon squall lines (ASLs), between the years 2000 and 2008, using satellite imagery and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses. The ASLs we are interested in are typically formed along the northern coast of Brazil and sometimes propagate for long distances inland. Results show that, on average, an ASL occurs every 2 days. ASLs are more frequent between April and June and less frequent between October and November. The years of 2005 and 2006 showed 25% more cases than the other years. This might be related to an increase of the Atlantic sea surface temperature. Of the total number of ASL cases, 54% propagated less than 170 km, 26% propagated between 170 and 400 km, and 20% propagated more than 400 km. We also studied the occurrence of low level jets (LLJs) associated with the coastal ASLs. Although LLJs are always present in the environment before the formation of the ASL and even on days without ASL cases, important differences were found, mainly related to the LLJ depths. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Weather forecasting for Eastern Amazon with OLAM model

O modelo OLAM tem como característica a vantagem de representar simultaneamente os fenômenos meteorológicos de escala global e regional através de um esquema de refinamento de grades. Durante o projeto REMAM, o modelo foi aplicado para alguns estudos de caso com objetivo de avaliar o desempenho do modelo na previsão numérica de tempo para a região leste da Amazônia. Estudos de caso foram feitos para os doze meses do ano de 2009. Os resultados do modelo para estes casos foram comparados com dados observados na região de estudo. A análise dos dados de precipitação mostrou que o modelo consegue representar a distribuição média da precipitação acumulada e os aspectos da sazonalidade da ocorrência dos eventos, mas não consegue prever individualmente a acumulação de precipitação local. No entanto, avaliação individual de alguns casos mostrou que o modelo OLAM conseguiu representar dinamicamente e prever, com alguns dias de antecedência, o desenvolvimento de fenômenos meteorológicos costeiros como as linhas de instabilidade, que são um dos mais importantes sistemas precipitantes da Amazônia.

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

The diagnosis of severe thunderstorms with high-resolution WRF model

Thunderstorm, resulting from vigorous convective activity, is one of the most spectacular weather phenomena in the atmosphere. A common feature of the weather during the pre-monsoon season over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and northeast India is the outburst of severe local convective storms, commonly known as ‘Nor’westers’(as they move from northwest to southeast). The severe thunderstorms associated with thunder, squall lines, lightning and hail cause extensive losses in agricultural, damage to structure and also loss of life. In this paper, sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) to test the impact of three microphysical schemes in capturing the severe thunderstorm event occurred over Kolkata on 15 May 2009. The results show that the WRF-NMM model with Ferrier microphysical scheme appears to reproduce the cloud and precipitation processes more realistically than other schemes. Also, we have made an attempt to diagnose four severe thunderstorms that occurred during pre-monsoon seasons of 2006, 2007 and 2008 through the simulated radar reflectivity fields from NMM model with Ferrier microphysics scheme and validated the model results with Kolkata Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) observations. Composite radar reflectivity simulated by WRF-NMM model clearly shows the severe thunderstorm movement as observed by DWR imageries, but failed to capture the intensity as in observations. The results of these analyses demonstrated the capability of high resolution WRF-NMM model in the simulation of severe thunderstorm events and determined that the 3 km model improve upon current abilities when it comes to simulating severe thunderstorms over east Indian region

Distribution and statistics of African mesoscale convective weather systems based on the ISCCP Meteosat imagery

This paper provides for the first time an objective short-term (8 yr) climatology of African convective weather systems based on satellite imagery. Eight years of infrared International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project-European Space Agency's Meteorological Satellite (ISCCP-Meteosat) satellite imagery has been analyzed using objective feature identification, tracking, and statistical techniques for the July, August, and September periods and the region of Africa and the adjacent Atlantic ocean. This allows various diagnostics to be computed and used to study the distribution of mesoscale and synoptic-scale convective weather systems from mesoscale cloud clusters and squall lines to tropical cyclones. An 8-yr seasonal climatology (1983-90) and the seasonal cycle of this convective activity are presented and discussed. Also discussed is the dependence of organized convection for this region, on the orography, convective, and potential instability and vertical wind shear using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data.

A case study of convective organization into precipitating lines in the Southwest Amazon during the WETAMC and TRMM-LBA

A case study of convective development in the Southwest Amazon region during the Wet Season Atmospheric Mesoscale Campaign (WETAMC) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)/Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA) Experiment in Amazonia is presented. The convective development during 7 February 1999 is shown to occur during a period of very weak large-scale forcing in the presence of topography and deforestation. The available data include dual Doppler radar analysis, radiosonde launches, and surface and boundary layer observations. The observational analysis is complemented with a series of model simulations using the RAMS with 2-km resolution over a 300 km 300 km area forced by a morning radiosonde profile. A comparison of the observed and simulated thermodynamic transformation of the boundary layer and of the formation of convective lines, and of their kinematic and microphysical properties is presented. It is shown that only a few very deep and intense convective cells are necessary to explain the overall precipitating line formation and that discrete propagation and coupling with upper atmosphere circulations may explain the appearance of several lines. The numerical simulation indicates that topography may be the cause of initial convective development, although later on the convective line is parallel to the midlevel shear. There are indications that small-scale deforestation may have an effect on increasing rainfall in the wet season when the large-scale forcing is very weak.

Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single cross-basin squall line event

Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events in Amazonia that in turn might produce more forest blowdowns associated with convective storms. Yet quantitative tree mortality associated with convective storms has never been reported across Amazonia, representing an important additional source of carbon to the atmosphere. Here we demonstrate that a single squall line (aligned cluster of convective storm cells) propagating across Amazonia in January, 2005, caused widespread forest tree mortality and may have contributed to the elevated mortality observed that year. Forest plot data demonstrated that the same year represented the second highest mortality rate over a 15-year annual monitoring interval. Over the Manaus region, disturbed forest patches generated by the squall followed a power-law distribution (scaling exponent alpha = 1.48) and produced a mortality of 0.3-0.5 million trees, equivalent to 30% of the observed annual deforestation reported in 2005 over the same area. Basin-wide, potential tree mortality from this one event was estimated at 542 +/- 121 million trees, equivalent to 23% of the mean annual biomass accumulation estimated for these forests. Our results highlight the vulnerability of Amazon trees to wind-driven mortality associated with convective storms. Storm intensity is expected to increase with a warming climate, which would result in additional tree mortality and carbon release to the atmosphere, with the potential to further warm the climate system. Citation: Negron-Juarez, R. I., J. Q. Chambers, G. Guimaraes, H. Zeng, C. F. M. Raupp, D. M. Marra, G. H. P. M. Ribeiro, S. S. Saatchi, B. W. Nelson, and N. Higuchi (2010), Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single cross-basin squall line event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043733.

Introduction of a non-conventional solution for Amazon transmission system: Analysis of the electric aspects

This article shows an analysis of the longitudinal electric parameters of a three-phase transmission line/section using a 280-meter high steel tower. This characteristic, the height of the line conductors and distance between them, are intrinsic related to the longitudinal and transversal parameters of the line. By this means, an accurate study was carried out in order to show the electric variations between a transmission line using the new technology and a three-phase conventional 440 kV line for a wide range of frequencies and a variable soil resistivity. In addition, by using a digital line model, simulations are carried out in time domain to analyze critical overvoltage transients on the studied line. © 2011 IEEE.