Predicting Amazon Deforestation through the deterninants of demand for agricultural land

This paper develops a model of deforestation pressure in the Amazon. It is based on the determinants of demand for agricultural land, i.e. the interactions between population dynamics, urbanization and the growth of local markets, land prices, and government spending and policies. The mo deI is estimated using data from the period 1970 - 1985, and predictions for the period 1985 - 2010 are made under explicit assumptions about the underlying factors of deforestation. The predictions indicate that economic growth in the Amazon is likely to continue at high rates even if the federal government abandons its aggressive development policy. Deforestation will be much smaller if they do, though, since the active development policies tend to promote wasteful use of land.

Protected Areas' Impacts on Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: Examining Conservation-Development Interactions to Inform Planning.

Protected areas are the leading forest conservation policy for species and ecoservices goals and they may feature in climate policy if countries with tropical forest rely on familiar tools. For Brazil's Legal Amazon, we estimate the average impact of protection upon deforestation and show how protected areas' forest impacts vary significantly with development pressure. We use matching, i.e., comparisons that are apples-to-apples in observed land characteristics, to address the fact that protected areas (PAs) tend to be located on lands facing less pressure. Correcting for that location bias lowers our estimates of PAs' forest impacts by roughly half. Further, it reveals significant variation in PA impacts along development-related dimensions: for example, the PAs that are closer to roads and the PAs closer to cities have higher impact. Planners have multiple conservation and development goals, and are constrained by cost, yet still conservation planning should reflect what our results imply about future impacts of PAs.

Rural property size drives patterns of upland and riparian forest retention in a tropical deforestation frontier

Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia accounts for a disproportionate global scale fraction of both carbon emissions from biomass burning and biodiversity erosion through habitat loss. Here we use field- and remote-sensing data to examine the effects of private landholding size on the amount and type of forest cover retained within economically active rural properties in an aging southern Amazonian deforestation frontier. Data on both upland and riparian forest cover from a survey of 300 rural properties indicated that 49.4% (SD = 29.0%) of the total forest cover was maintained as of 2007. and that property size is a key regional-scale determinant of patterns of deforestation and land-use change. Small properties (<= 150 ha) retained a lower proportion of forest (20.7%, SD = 17.6) than did large properties (>150 ha; 55.6%, SD = 27.2). Generalized linear models showed that property size had a positive effect on remaining areas of both upland and total forest cover. Using a Landsat time-series, the age of first clear-cutting that could be mapped within the boundaries of each property had a negative effect on the proportion of upland, riparian, and total forest cover retained. Based on these data, we show contrasts in land-use strategies between smallholders and largeholders, as well as differences in compliance with legal requirements in relation to minimum forest cover set-asides within private landholdings. This suggests that property size structure must be explicitly considered in landscape-scale conservation planning initiatives guiding agro-pastoral frontier expansion into remaining areas of tropical forest. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rural property size drives patterns of upland and riparian forest retention in a tropical deforestation frontier

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Recent shift from forest to savanna burning in the Amazon Basin observed by satellite

The numbers of fires detected on forest, savanna and transition lands during the 2002-10 biomass burning seasons in Amazonia are shown using fire count data and co-located land cover classifications from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The ratio of forest fires to savanna fires has varied substantially over the study period, with a maximum ratio of 0.65:1 in 2005 and a minimum ratio of 0.27:1 in 2009, with the four lowest years occurring in 2007-10. The burning during the droughts of 2007 and 2010 is attributed to a higher number of savanna fires relative to the drought of 2005. A decrease in the regional mean single scattering albedo of biomass burning aerosols, consistent with the shift from forest to savanna burning, is also shown. During the severe drought of 2010, forest fire detections were lower in many areas compared with 2005, even though the drought was more severe in 2010. This result suggests that improved fire management practices, including stricter burning regulations as well as lower deforestation burning, may have reduced forest fires in 2010 relative to 2005 in some areas of the Amazon Basin.

Creating meanings, changing contexts: contested sustainability in the Brazilian beef industry

O objetivo desta pesquisa é compreender de que forma as organizações moldam seu ambiente, analisando por que algumas práticas tornam-se reconhecidas como ‘sustentáveis’ na indústria de carne bovina brasileira. O estudo dialoga com a literatura de institucionalismo organizacional ao apontar a necessidade de considerar a política (i.e. as negociações entre atores) e significados, a fim de entender como a estabilidade e a mudança institucional ocorrem em um contexto situado (i.e. em um tempo e espaço específicos). A pesquisa conclui que os entendimentos sobre o que poderia ser reconhecido como ‘sustentabilidade’ são o resultado de atores moldando o seu ambiente por meio de ações e interações que produzem significados. Seguindo uma abordagem de hegemonia, essas disputas não são apenas entre os atores que procuram vantagens recursivas, mas também procuram defender ou atacar as lógicas sociais que apoiam a posição dominante dos atores. Além disso, os atores exercem sua agência sobre as condições no presente (i.e. contexto situado), com base em um passado herdado e com o objetivo de produzir um futuro que eles imaginam. Para analisar tais processos uma abordagem de hegemonia entre atores e lógicas sociais foi desenvolvida para destacar a ordem de negociação, uma arena em que os atores lutam pela hegemonia. Como resultado de tais negociações, uma questão focal emerge, influenciando o discurso e interesses dos atores, bem como justificando as iniciativas, programas e tecnologias sobre tal questão; construindo, portanto, o consenso. Baseando-se em Realismo Crítico e Análise Crítica do Discurso, a pesquisa desenvolveu um estudo de caso longitudinal suportado por documentos públicos e confidenciais e entrevistas com especialistas, para examinar o caminho da sustentabilidade na indústria de carne bovina brasileira. Identificou-se três contextos diferentes para agência em relação à sustentabilidade. Enquanto no primeiro verifica-se um silêncio sobre práticas de sustentabilidade, o segundo enfatiza a emergência do desmatamento da Amazônia como uma questão focal, devido à agência do Greenpeace e MPF que força a indústria a desenvolver um sistema de monitoramento que rastreie seus fornecedores de gado de modo a evitar compra de suprimentos associadas ao desmatamento da Amazônia, dentre outras atividades ilegais. Finalmente, durante o terceiro contexto, o sistema de monitoramento permite que indústria de carne bovina se aproprie da sustentabilidade, assim o setor da carne passa a construir a sua legitimidade para influenciar sobre os riscos e oportunidades associadas ao contexto da sustentabilidade. Em termos de lógicas sociais, o desmatamento na Amazônia foi denunciado como um problema ambiental, nesta indústria, ancorado em algumas características da lógica do capitalismo, como a gestão de riscos, inovação e aumento da produtividade, cadeia de fornecimento global e governança. Embora este ataque questione a racionalidade da maximização racional lucro, impondo restrições ambientais para o comportamento das empresas, a solução desenvolvida é também ancorada sobre as mesmas características do capitalismo empregadas para atacá-lo. Como consequência, uma mudança gradual é ilustrada por uma transformação na ‘eficiência quantitativa’ do capitalismo, o aumento da produtividade devido à mudança da proporção de recursos consumidos para produção e à preocupação em evitar o desmatamento da Amazônia. No entanto, a ‘eficiência qualitativa’ do capitalismo é preservada uma vez que os grupos dominantes no poder ainda estão controlando os meios de produção e os recursos a eles associados (i.e. dinheiro, poder e legitimidade). Uma vez que estes processos de negociações são mediados pela racionalidade de se evitar risco aos negócios, consequentemente, a maximização do lucro, o núcleo duro da lógica do capitalismo é preservado. Portanto, os grupos dominantes mantêm sua hegemonia.

Amazônia Legal e o estado de Mato Grosso: dois ensaios sobre o processo de convergência espacial para o desmatamento

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise das taxas anuais de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal a partir da relação entre autos de infração e área desmatada no período entre 2000 e 2014

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Humanas, Departamento de Geografia, Pós-Graduação em Geografia, 2016.

Gold mining in the Peruvian Amazon: global prices, deforestation, and mercury imports.

Many factors such as poverty, ineffective institutions and environmental regulations may prevent developing countries from managing how natural resources are extracted to meet a strong market demand. Extraction for some resources has reached such proportions that evidence is measurable from space. We present recent evidence of the global demand for a single commodity and the ecosystem destruction resulting from commodity extraction, recorded by satellites for one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. We find that since 2003, recent mining deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru is increasing nonlinearly alongside a constant annual rate of increase in international gold price (∼18%/yr). We detect that the new pattern of mining deforestation (1915 ha/year, 2006-2009) is outpacing that of nearby settlement deforestation. We show that gold price is linked with exponential increases in Peruvian national mercury imports over time (R(2) = 0.93, p = 0.04, 2003-2009). Given the past rates of increase we predict that mercury imports may more than double for 2011 (∼500 t/year). Virtually all of Peru's mercury imports are used in artisanal gold mining. Much of the mining increase is unregulated/artisanal in nature, lacking environmental impact analysis or miner education. As a result, large quantities of mercury are being released into the atmosphere, sediments and waterways. Other developing countries endowed with gold deposits are likely experiencing similar environmental destruction in response to recent record high gold prices. The increasing availability of satellite imagery ought to evoke further studies linking economic variables with land use and cover changes on the ground.

Modeling the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of deforestation-driven carbon emissions: the INPE-EM framework applied to the Brazilian Amazon

We present a generic spatially explicit modeling framework to estimate carbon emissions from deforestation (INPE-EM). The framework incorporates the temporal dynamics related to the deforestation process and accounts for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity of the region under study. We build an emission model for the Brazilian Amazon combining annual maps of new clearings, four maps of biomass, and a set of alternative parameters based on the recent literature. The most important results are as follows: (a) Using different biomass maps leads to large differences in estimates of emission; for the entire region of the Brazilian Amazon in the last decade, emission estimates of primary forest deforestation range from 0.21 to 0.26 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1. (b) Secondary vegetation growth presents a small impact on emission balance because of the short duration of secondary vegetation. In average, the balance is only 5% smaller than the primary forest deforestation emissions. (c) Deforestation rates decreased significantly in the Brazilian Amazon in recent years, from 27 similar to Mkm2 in 2004 to 7 similar to Mkm2 in 2010. INPE-EM process-based estimates reflect this decrease even though the agricultural frontier is moving to areas of higher biomass. The decrease is slower than a non-process instantaneous model would estimate as it considers residual emissions (slash, wood products, and secondary vegetation). The average balance, considering all biomass, decreases from 0.28 in 2004 to 0.15 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1 in 2009; the non-process model estimates a decrease from 0.33 to 0.10 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1. We conclude that the INPE-EM is a powerful tool for representing deforestation-driven carbon emissions. Biomass estimates are still the largest source of uncertainty in the effective use of this type of model for informing mechanisms such as REDD+. The results also indicate that efforts to reduce emissions should focus not only on controlling primary forest deforestation but also on creating incentives for the restoration of secondary forests.

Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Deforestation in the Amazon Basin: magnitude, dynamics and soil resource effects

Includes bibliography

Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How deforestation pattern in the Amazon influences vertebrate richness and community composition

The effects of habitat configuration on species persistence are predicted to be most apparent when remaining habitat cover is below 30%. We tested this prediction by comparing vertebrate communities in 21 landscapes located in the southern Amazonia, including 7 control landscapes (similar to 100% of forest cover) and 14 fragmented landscapes (4 x 4 km). The fragmented landscapes retained similar proportions of forest (similar to 25%), but had contrasting configurations, resulting from two different deforestation patterns: the "fish-bone pattern" common in small properties, and the large-property pattern generally used by large ranchers. Vertebrates were surveyed in all landscapes in February-July 2009 with interviews (n = 150). We found a significant difference in reported species richness among the fish-bone, large-property, and control areas (mean = 29.3, 38.8 and 43.5 respectively). Control areas and large-properties tended to have a higher number of specialist species (mean = 13.7, and 11.7, respectively), when compared with the fish-bone pattern (5.1). Vertebrate community composition in the control and large-properties was more similar to one another than to those of the fish-bone landscapes. The number of fragments was the main factor affecting the persistence of species, being negatively associated with specialist species richness. Species richness was also positively related with the size of the largest fragment structurally connected to the studied landscapes (i.e., a regional scale effect). Our results demonstrated that the large-property pattern, which results in less fragmented landscapes, can maintain a more diverse community of large vertebrates, including top predators, which are considered fundamental for maintaining ecosystem integrity. These results support the hypothesis that landscape configuration contributes to the persistence and/or extirpation of species.

On the road through the Bolivian Amazon: a multi-level land governance analysis of deforestation

Previous studies have shown that collective property rights offer higher flexibility than individual property and improve sustainable community-based forest management. Our case study, carried out in the Beni department of Bolivia, does not contradict this assertion, but shows that collective rights have been granted in areas where ecological contexts and market facilities were less favourable to intensive land use. Previous experiences suggest investigating political processes in order to understand the criteria according to which access rights were distributed. Based on remote sensing and on a multi-level land governance framework, our research confirms that land placed under collective rights, compared to individual property, is less affected by deforestation among Andean settlements. However, analysis of the historical process of land distribution in the area shows that the distribution of property rights is the result of a political process based on economic, spatial, and environmental strategies that are defined by multiple stakeholders. Collective titles were established in the more remote areas and distributed to communities with lower productive potentialities. Land rights are thus a secondary factor of forest cover change which results from diverse political compromises based on population distribution, accessibility, environmental perceptions, and expected production or extraction incomes.