Agricultural expansion and climate change in the Taita Hills, Kenya: an assessment of potential environmental impacts

The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved in this region. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This dissertation tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, alternative methods were designed to improve our understanding of the ongoing agricultural activities. Namely, methods for agricultural survey planning and to estimate evapotranspiration were evaluated, taking into account a number of limitations regarding data and resources availability. Next, this dissertation evaluates how upcoming agricultural expansion, together with climate change, will affect the natural resources in the Taita Hills up to the year 2030. The driving forces of agricultural expansion in the region were identified as aiming to delineate future landscape scenarios and evaluate potential impacts from the soil and water conservation point of view. In order to investigate these issues and answer the research questions, this dissertation combined state of the art modelling tools with renowned statistical methods. The results indicate that, if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Although the simulated land use changes will certainly increase soil erosion figures, new croplands are likely to come up predominantly in the lowlands, which comprise areas with lower soil erosion potential. By 2030, rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change. Finally, this thesis addressed the potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR), which is considered another major issue in the context of the relations between land use and climate. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase annual volumes of rainfall during the following decades, IWR will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

Global environmental impacts of agricultural expansion: The need for sustainable and efficient practices

The recent intensification of agriculture, and the prospects of future intensification, will have major detrimental impacts on the nonagricultural terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of the world. The doubling of agricultural food production during the past 35 years was associated with a 6.87-fold increase in nitrogen fertilization, a 3.48-fold increase in phosphorus fertilization, a 1.68-fold increase in the amount of irrigated cropland, and a 1.1-fold increase in land in cultivation. Based on a simple linear extension of past trends, the anticipated next doubling of global food production would be associated with approximately 3-fold increases in nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization rates, a doubling of the irrigated land area, and an 18% increase in cropland. These projected changes would have dramatic impacts on the diversity, composition, and functioning of the remaining natural ecosystems of the world, and on their ability to provide society with a variety of essential ecosystem services. The largest impacts would be on freshwater and marine ecosystems, which would be greatly eutrophied by high rates of nitrogen and phosphorus release from agricultural fields. Aquatic nutrient eutrophication can lead to loss of biodiversity, outbreaks of nuisance species, shifts in the structure of food chains, and impairment of fisheries. Because of aerial redistribution of various forms of nitrogen, agricultural intensification also would eutrophy many natural terrestrial ecosystems and contribute to atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases. These detrimental environmental impacts of agriculture can be minimized only if there is much more efficient use and recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus in agroecosystems.

Preservation of Agricultural Lands Society (PALS) fonds, 1954-2015, n.d.

Preservation of Agricultural Lands Society [PALS] held its first meeting at Brock University on June 21, 1976. Its first executive consisted of Robert Hoover, Rick Teather, Debbie Kehler and Bill Forster. Some objectives of the organization were "to seek the preservation of valuable farm areas from non-agricultural expansion and development and to foster development and support of federal, provinicial and local policy which will provide a secure financial future for farming." Gracia Janes and John Bacher are some of the organizations' well known advocates. The organization was active in raising public awareness of the issues surrounding encroaching development onto existing agricultural lands. The organization is still active today [2016] in educating the public and attempting to influence governments at all levels to protect valuable agricultural lands.

Sustainable agricultural intensification or Jevons paradox? The role of public governance in tropical South America

The process of global deforestation calls for urgent attention, particularly in South America where deforestation rates have failed to decline over the past 20 years. The main direct cause of deforestation is land conversion to agriculture. We combine data from the FAO and the World Bank for six tropical Southern American countries over the period 1970–2006, estimate a panel data model accounting for various determinants of agricultural land expansion and derive elasticities to quantify the effect of the different independent variables. We investigate whether agricultural intensification, in conjunction with governance factors, has been promoting agricultural expansion, leading to a ‘‘Jevons paradox’’. The paradox occurs if an increase in the productivity of one factor (here agricultural land) leads to its increased, rather than decreased, utilization. We find that for high values of our governance indicators a Jevons paradox exists even for moderate levels of agricultural productivity, leading to an overall expansion of agricultural area. Agricultural expansion is also positively related to the level of service on external debt and population growth, while its association with agricultural exports is only moderate. Finally, we find no evidence of an environmental Kuznets curve, as agricultural area is ultimately positively correlated to per-capita income levels.

Governance, agricultural intensification and land sparing in tropical South America

In this paper we address two topical questions: How do the quality of governance and agricultural intensification impact on spatial expansion of agriculture? Which aspects of governance are more likely to ensure that agricultural intensification allows sparing land for nature? Using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank, the World Database on Protected Areas, and the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, we estimate a panel data model for six South American countries and quantify the effects of major determinants of agricultural land expansion, including various dimensions of governance, over the period 1970–2006. The results indicate that the effect of agricultural intensification on agricultural expansion is conditional on the quality and type of governance. When considering conventional aspects of governance, agricultural intensification leads to an expansion of agricultural area when governance scores are high. When looking specifically at environmental aspects of governance, intensification leads to a spatial contraction of agriculture when governance scores are high, signaling a sustainable intensification process.

The impact of soybean expansion on mammal and bird, in the Balsas region, north Brasilian Cerrado

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Environmental Assessment of the Agricultural Sector

One of the main problems recognized in sustainable development goals and sustainable agricultural objectives is Climate change. Farming contributes significantly to the overall Greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, which is approximately 10-12 percent of total GHG emissions, but when taking in consideration also land-use change, including deforestation driven by agricultural expansion for food, fiber and fuel the number rises to approximately 30 percent (Smith et. al., 2007). There are two distinct methodological approaches for environmental impact assessment; Life Cycle Assessment (a bottom up approach) and Input-Output Analysis (a top down approach). The two methodologies differ significantly but there is not an immediate choice between them if the scope of the study is on a sectorial level. Instead, as an alternative, hybrid approaches which combine these two approaches have emerged. The aim of this study is to analyze in a greater detail the agricultural sectors contribution to Climate change caused by the consumption of food products. Hence, to identify the food products that have the greatest impact through their life cycle, identifying their hotspots and evaluating the mitigation possibilities for the same. At the same time evaluating methodological possibilities and models to be applied for this purpose both on a EU level and on a country level (Italy).

Typologies and spatialization of agricultural production systems in Rondônia, Brazil: linking land use, socioeconomics and territorial configuration.

The current Amazon landscape consists of heterogeneous mosaics formed by interactions between the original forest and productive activities. Recognizing and quantifying the characteristics of these landscapes is essential for understanding agricultural production chains, assessing the impact of policies, and in planning future actions. Our main objective was to construct the regionalization of agricultural production for Rondônia State (Brazilian Amazon) at the municipal level. We adopted a decision tree approach, using land use maps derived from remote sensing data (PRODES and TerraClass) combined with socioeconomic data. The decision trees allowed us to allocate municipalities to one of five agricultural production systems: (i) coexistence of livestock production and intensive agriculture; (ii) semi-intensive beef and milk production; (iii) semi-intensive beef production; (iv) intensive beef and milk production, and; (v) intensive beef production. These production systems are, respectively, linked to mechanized agriculture (i), traditional cattle farming with low management, with (ii) or without (iii) a significant presence of dairy farming, and to more intensive livestock farming with (iv) or without (v) a significant presence of dairy farming. The municipalities and associated production systems were then characterized using a wide variety of quantitative metrics grouped into four dimensions: (i) agricultural production; (ii) economics; (iii) territorial configuration, and; (iv) social characteristics. We found that production systems linked to mechanized agriculture predominate in the south of the state, while intensive farming is mainly found in the center of the state. Semi-intensive livestock farming is mainly located close to the southwest frontier and in the north of the state, where human occupation of the territory is not fully consolidated. This distributional pattern reflects the origins of the agricultural production system of Rondônia. Moreover, the characterization of the production systems provides insights into the pattern of occupation of the Amazon and the socioeconomic consequences of continuing agricultural expansion.

Bats and Emerging Zoonoses: Henipaviruses and SARS.

Nearly 75% of all emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) that impact or threaten human health are zoonotic. The majority have spilled from wildlife reservoirs, either directly to humans or via domestic animals. The emergence of many can be attributed to predisposing factors such as global travel, trade, agricultural expansion, deforestation habitat fragmentation, and urbanization; such factors increase the interface and or the rate of contact between human, domestic animal, and wildlife populations, thereby creating increased opportunities for spillover events to occur. Infectious disease emergence can be regarded as primarily an ecological process. The epidemiological investigation of EIDs associated with wildlife requires a trans-disciplinary approach that includes an understanding of the ecology of the wildlife species, and an understanding of human behaviours that increase risk of exposure. Investigations of the emergence of Nipah virus in Malaysia in 1999 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in China in 2003 provide useful case studies. The emergence of Nipah virus was associated with the increased size and density of commercial pig farms and their encroachment into forested areas. The movement of pigs for sale and slaughter in turn led to the rapid spread of infection to southern peninsular Malaysia, where the high-density, largely urban pig populations facilitated transmission to humans. Identifying the factors associated with the emergence of SARS in southern China requires an understanding of the ecology of infection both in the natural reservoir and in secondary market reservoir species. A necessary extension of understanding the ecology of the reservoir is an understanding of the trade, and of the social and cultural context of wildlife consumption. Emerging infectious diseases originating from wildlife populations will continue to threaten public health. Mitigating and managing the risk requires an appreciation of the connectedness between human, livestock and wildlife health, and of the factors and processes that disrupt the balance.

Livelihood, land use and environment interactions in the highlands of East Africa

This study aims at improving understanding of the interactions of livelihoods and the environment focusing on both socio-economic and biodiversity implications of land use change in the context of population pressure, global and local markets, climate change, cultural and regional historical factors in the highlands of East Africa. The study is based on three components (1) two extensive livelihood surveys, one on Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and the other in the Taita Hills of Kenya, (2) a land use change study of the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro focusing on land use trends between 1960s and 1980s and 1980s and 2000 and (3) a bird diversity study focusing on the potential impacts of the future land use change on birds in the main land use types on the slopes and the adjacent plains of Mt. Kilimanjaro. In addition, information on the highlands in Embu and the adjacent lowlands in Mbeere of Kenya are added to the discussion. Some general patterns of livelihood, land use and environment interactions can be found in the three sites. However, the linkages are very complex. Various external factors at different times in history have influenced most of the major turning points. Farmers continually make small adaptations to their farming practices, but the locally conceived alternatives are too few. Farmers lack specific information and knowledge on the most suitable crops, market opportunities and the quality requirements for growing the crops for markets. Population growth emerges as the most forceful driver of land use and environmental change. The higher altitudes have become extremely crowded with population densities in some areas higher than typical urban population densities. Natural vegetation has almost totally been replaced by farmland. Decreasing farm size due to population pressure is currently threatening the viability of whole farming systems. In addition, capital-poor intensification has lead to soil fertility depletion. Agricultural expansion to the agriculturally marginal lowlands has created a new and distinct group of farmers struggling constantly with climate variability causing frequent crop failures. Extensification to the fragile drylands is the major cause of fragmentation and loss of wildlife habitat. The linkages between livelihoods, land use and the environment generally point to degradation of the environment leading to reduced environmental services and ecosystem functions. There is no indication that the system is self-regulating in this respect. Positive interventions will be needed to maintain ecosystem integrity.

Análise da dinâmica espaço-temporal de culturas agrícolas no Brasil: uma abordagem metodológica.

Atualmente, o Brasil se apresenta como um grande produtor agrícola mundial com finalidade alimentícia e bioenergética. Ano a ano recordes de produção são batidos pelo setor agropecuário. Por outro lado, tem-se uma perspectiva de problemas alimentícios e energéticos no mundo, em especial no continente africano onde muitos vivem na miséria e na fome. Neste contexto, esta dissertação de mestrado apresenta uma proposta para a análise da dinâmica espaço-temporal de culturas agrícolas empregando os conceitos e instrumentos da Geomática em busca do desenvolvimento sustentável. Desenvolveu-se uma metodologia para a geração de indicadores da produção agrícola em diferentes níveis da estrutura territorial brasileira que permite a apresentação sintética, por meio de cartogramas e animações digitais, das dinâmicas espacial e espaço-temporal das principais culturas. Para isto foi criada uma base de dados da produção das principais culturas, desenvolvidos indicadores que representem a dinâmica espacial da produção agrícola e desenvolvidas ferramentas de apresentação destes indicadores através da dinâmica espaço-temporal. Finalmente, foram relacionadas as áreas voltadas à produção de alimentos e de expansão agrícola para a bioenergia (etanol e óleo de palma). Pretende-se, através deste trabalho, contribuir na tomada de decisão com ferramentas de visualização da realidade agropecuária brasileira. O trabalho estabelece ligações com os zoneamentos agroecológicos, os instrumentos de segurança alimentar e a pegada ecológica, com a apresentação da produção agrícola das culturas como cana-de-açúcar, milho, soja, palma de óleo e algodão.

Valoración de impacto ambiental por pesticidas agrícolas.

El uso de agroquímicos en Argentina se ha fortalecido junto con la expansión agrícola. El objetivo de este trabajo es la elaboración de una metodología para calcular el impacto ambiental que los pesticidas causan en el medio ambiente teniendo en cuenta los siguientes factores: "ecotoxicología": categoría toxicológica, toxicidad en abejas, aves y peces; "Toxicidad humana": carcinogenicidad, neurotoxicidad, alteraciones endocrinas, genotoxicidad y capacidad irritativa; "Comportamiento ambiental": la persistencia en el agua / sedimento, persistencia en el suelo y bioconcentración. Estos factores fueron clasificados como bajo, medio, alto o muy alto, de acuerdo con su nivel de toxicidad. Los resultados indican que los plaguicidas más tóxicos son los insecticidas. La mayoría de los pesticidas utilizados son la toxicidad media (43,75%), seguido de baja y alta toxicidad (21,88%) y, los de muy alta toxicidad (12,5%). La metodología propuesta podría ser utilizada como una herramienta de monitoreo, gestión o educación ambiental.

Evaluación temporal del uso actual del suelo del Bosque Protector Aguarongo y sus áreas colindantes. Área de estudio : Parroquias Santa Ana, San Bartolomé y Zhidmad

Se evaluó el uso actual del suelo, mediante la creación de mapas de uso/cobertura y capacidad de acogida; la problemática consiste en el crecimiento agropecuario; se validó esta información obteniendo que la expansión agropecuaria y las actividades antrópicas, aportan a la fragmentación del hábitat del bosque en detrimento de la biodiversidad existente.

Water use and conservation at the environmental protection area of Brilhante, Santa Catarina - Brazil

Dissertação mest., Gestão da Água e da Costa, Universidade do Algarve, 2008

Impact des polluants agricoles sur la génétique des populations d’une espèce sentinelle : le ouaouaron (Rana catesbeiana)

L’expansion agricole ne cesse d’agir sur la perte d’habitats essentiels et nécessaires au développement des espèces. Bien que plusieurs espèces réussissent à survivre dans ces habitats peu adéquats, la persistance et la santé de plusieurs populations semblent compromises par l’utilisation souvent intensive de polluants chimiques agricoles et de fertilisants. Cette étude a pour but de déterminer l’impact des contaminants et de l’écologie du paysage sur la diversité génétique des populations de ouaouarons retrouvées en milieu agricole. Notre hypothèse de départ stipule qu’une exposition chronique aux polluants agricoles induira des différences génétiques au niveau des populations exposées. Le bassin versant de la rivière Yamaska a été désigné comme site d’étude puisqu’il fait partie de la région agricole la plus importante du Québec et parce qu’on y retrouve un gradient d’utilisation des terres pour l’agriculture (faible, moyen, élevé). Le ouaouaron a été choisi à titre de modèle biologique puisque ses caractéristiques physiologiques et écologiques en font une espèce sentinelle capable de rendre compte de l’état de santé global des écosystèmes. La caractérisation génétique des populations a été effectuée à partir de marqueurs d’AFLP (Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism). Les résultats montrent que la diversité génétique est liée à la colonisation à partir de l’embouchure de la rivière Yamaska et que quelques populations sont génétiquement différenciées. De plus, nous avons démontré une relation positive entre le nombre de locus polymorphes et l’atrazine, l’indice de contamination et le métolachlore et la concentration en azote ainsi qu’entre l’hétérozygotie attendue et la concentration en phosphate.