Agent-based simulation of electronic marketplaces with decision support

This paper presents a Multi-Agent Market simulator designed for analyzing agent market strategies based on a complete understanding of buyer and seller behaviors, preference models and pricing algorithms, considering user risk preferences and game theory for scenario analysis. The system includes agents that are capable of improving their performance with their own experience, by adapting to the market conditions, and capable of considering other agents reactions.

Agent Based Simulation of Street Robbery

Routine activity theory introduced by Cohen& Felson in 1979 states that criminal acts are caused due to the presenceof criminals, vic-timsand the absence of guardians in time and place. As the number of collision of these elements in place and time increases, criminal acts will also increase even if the number of criminals or civilians remains the same within the vicinity of a city. Street robbery is a typical example of routine ac-tivity theory and the occurrence of which can be predicted using routine activity theory. Agent-based models allow simulation of diversity among individuals. Therefore agent based simulation of street robbery can be used to visualize how chronological aspects of human activity influence the incidence of street robbery.The conceptual model identifies three classes of people-criminals, civilians and police with certain activity areas for each. Police exist only as agents of formal guardianship. Criminals with a tendency for crime will be in the search for their victims. Civilians without criminal tendencycan be either victims or guardians. In addition to criminal tendency, each civilian in the model has a unique set of characteristicslike wealth, employment status, ability for guardianship etc. These agents are subjected to random walk through a street environment guided by a Q –learning module and the possible outcomes are analyzed

Decision‐Making in Public Good Dilemmas: Theory and Agent‐Based Simulation

In many real world contexts individuals find themselves in situations where they have to decide between options of behaviour that serve a collective purpose or behaviours which satisfy one’s private interests, ignoring the collective. In some cases the underlying social dilemma (Dawes, 1980) is solved and we observe collective action (Olson, 1965). In others social mobilisation is unsuccessful. The central topic of social dilemma research is the identification and understanding of mechanisms which yield to the observed cooperation and therefore resolve the social dilemma. It is the purpose of this thesis to contribute this research field for the case of public good dilemmas. To do so, existing work that is relevant to this problem domain is reviewed and a set of mandatory requirements is derived which guide theory and method development of the thesis. In particular, the thesis focusses on dynamic processes of social mobilisation which can foster or inhibit collective action. The basic understanding is that success or failure of the required process of social mobilisation is determined by heterogeneous individual preferences of the members of a providing group, the social structure in which the acting individuals are contained, and the embedding of the individuals in economic, political, biophysical, or other external contexts. To account for these aspects and for the involved dynamics the methodical approach of the thesis is computer simulation, in particular agent-based modelling and simulation of social systems. Particularly conductive are agent models which ground the simulation of human behaviour in suitable psychological theories of action. The thesis develops the action theory HAPPenInGS (Heterogeneous Agents Providing Public Goods) and demonstrates its embedding into different agent-based simulations. The thesis substantiates the particular added value of the methodical approach: Starting out from a theory of individual behaviour, in simulations the emergence of collective patterns of behaviour becomes observable. In addition, the underlying collective dynamics may be scrutinised and assessed by scenario analysis. The results of such experiments reveal insights on processes of social mobilisation which go beyond classical empirical approaches and yield policy recommendations on promising intervention measures in particular.

Agent-based simulation for renewable energy incentive design

In this thesis, we propose a novel approach to model the diffusion of residential PV systems. For this purpose, we use an agent-based model where agents are the families living in the area of interest. The case study is the Emilia-Romagna Regional Energy plan, which aims to increase the produc- tion of electricity from renewable energy. So, we study the microdata from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) provided by Bank of Italy in order to obtain the characteristics of families living in Emilia-Romagna. These data have allowed us to artificial generate families and reproduce the socio-economic aspects of the region. The families generated by means of a software are placed on the virtual world by associating them with the buildings. These buildings are acquired by analysing the vector data of regional buildings made available by the region. Each year, the model determines the level of diffusion by simulating the installed capacity. The adoption behaviour is influenced by social interactions, household’s economic situation, the environmental benefits arising from the adoption and the payback period of the investment.

Agent-based simulation of lock-in dynamics in a duopoly

Lock-in is observed in real world markets of experience goods; experience goods are goods whose characteristics are difficult to determine in advance, but ascertained upon consumption. We create an agent-based simulation of consumers choosing between two experience goods available in a virtual market. We model consumers in a grid representing the spatial network of the consumers. Utilising simple assumptions, including identical distributions of product experience and consumers having a degree of follower tendency, we explore the dynamics of the model through simulations. We conduct simulations to create a lock-in before testing several hypotheses upon how to break an existing lock-in; these include the effect of advertising and free give-away. Our experiments show that the key to successfully breaking a lock-in required the creation of regions in a consumer population. Regions arise due to the degree of local conformity between agents within the regions, which spread throughout the population when a mildly superior competitor was available. These regions may be likened to a niche in a market, which gains in popularity to transition into the mainstream.

Agent based simulation as a novel decision support tool for retail managers

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. We apply agent-based simulation to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between human resource management practices and retail productivity. Our multi-disciplinary research team draws upon expertise from work psychologists and computer scientists. Our research so far has led us to conduct case study work with a top ten UK retailer. Based on our case study experience and data we are developing a simulator that can be used to investigate the impact of management practices (e.g. training, empowerment, teamwork) on customer satisfaction and retail productivity.

An agent-based simulation of in-store customer experiences

Agent-based modelling and simulation offers a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. In this paper we describe the development of an agent-based simulation model, designed to help to understand the relationship between human resource management practices and retail productivity. We report on the current development of our simulation model which includes new features concerning the evolution of customers over time. To test some of these features we have conducted a series of experiments dealing with customer pool sizes, standard and noise reduction modes, and the spread of the word of mouth. Our multidisciplinary research team draws upon expertise from work psychologists and computer scientists. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that intelligent agents offer potential for fostering sustainable organisational capabilities in the future.

A System Dynamics-Based Simulation Experiment for Testing Mental Model and Performance Effects of Using the Balanced Scorecard

This study develops a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the balanced scorecard approach by means of a system dynamics and feedback learning perspective. Presumably, the balanced scorecard leads to a better understanding of context, allowing managers to externalize and improve their mental models. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of the balanced scorecard approach on mental models and performance. A test based on a simulation experiment that uses a system dynamics model is performed. The experiment included three types of parameters: financial indicators; balanced scorecard indicators; and balanced scorecard indicators with the aid of a strategy map review. Two out of the three hypotheses were confirmed. It was concluded that a strategy map review positively influences mental model similarity, and mental model similarity positively influences performance.

A system dynamics-based simulation

This study develops a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the balanced scorecard approach by means of a system dynamics and feedback learning perspective. Presumably, the balanced scorecard leads to a better understanding of context, allowing managers to externalize and improve their mental models. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of the balanced scorecard approach on mental models and performance. A test based on a simulation experiment that uses a system dynamics model is performed. The experiment included three types of parameters: financial indicators; balanced scorecard indicators; and balanced scorecard indicators with the aid of a strategy map review. Two out of the three hypotheses were confirmed. It was concluded that a strategy map review positively influences mental model similarity, and mental model similarity positively influences performance.

Modelling group decision simulation through argumentation

Group decision making plays an important role in today’s organisations. The impact of decision making is so high and complex, that rarely the decision making process is made individually. In Group Decision Argumentation, there is a set of participants, with different profiles and expertise levels, that exchange ideas or engage in a process of argumentation and counter-argumentation, negotiate, cooperate, collaborate or even discuss techniques and/or methodologies for problem solving. In this paper, it is proposed a Multi-Agent simulator for the behaviour representation of group members in a decision making process. Agents behave depending on rational and emotional intelligence and use persuasive argumentation to convince and make alternative choices.

Agent based simulation for group formation

Group decision making plays an important role in today’s organisations. The impact of decision making is so high and complex, that rarely the decision making process is made just by one individual. The simulation of group decision making through a Multi-Agent System is a very interesting research topic. The purpose of this paper it to specify the actors involved in the simulation of a group decision, to present a model to the process of group formation and to describe the approach made to implement that model. In the group formation model it is considered the existence of incomplete and negative information, which was identified as crucial to make the simulation closer to the reality.

Agent based simulation to optimise emergency departments

Nowadays, many of the health care systems are large and complex environments and quite dynamic, specifically Emergency Departments, EDs. It is opened and working 24 hours per day throughout the year with limited resources, whereas it is overcrowded. Thus, is mandatory to simulate EDs to improve qualitatively and quantitatively their performance. This improvement can be achieved modelling and simulating EDs using Agent-Based Model, ABM and optimising many different staff scenarios. This work optimises the staff configuration of an ED. In order to do optimisation, objective functions to minimise or maximise have to be set. One of those objective functions is to find the best or optimum staff configuration that minimise patient waiting time. The staff configuration comprises: doctors, triage nurses, and admissions, the amount and sort of them. Staff configuration is a combinatorial problem, that can take a lot of time to be solved. HPC is used to run the experiments, and encouraging results were obtained. However, even with the basic ED used in this work the search space is very large, thus, when the problem size increases, it is going to need more resources of processing in order to obtain results in an acceptable time.

Synthesis and characterization of a new class of anti-angiogenic agents based on ruthenium clusters.

New triruthenium-carbonyl clusters derivatized with glucose-modified bicyclophosphite ligands have been synthesized. These compounds were found to have cytostatic and cytotoxic activity and depending on the number of bicyclophosphite ligands, and could be tuned for either anti-cancer or specific anti-angiogenic activity. While some compounds had a broad cellular toxicity profile in several cell types others showed endothelial cell specific dose-dependent anti-proliferative and anti-migratory efficacy. A profound inhibition of angiogenesis was also observed in the in vivo chicken chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) model, and consequently, these new compounds have considerable potential in drug design, e.g. for the treatment of cancer.

Flocking behaviour: Agent-based simulation and hierarchical leadership.

We have studied how leaders emerge in a group as a consequence of interactions among its members. We propose that leaders can emerge as a consequence of a self-organized process based on local rules of dyadic interactions among individuals. Flocks are an example of self-organized behaviour in a group and properties similar to those observed in flocks might also explain some of the dynamics and organization of human groups. We developed an agent-based model that generated flocks in a virtual world and implemented it in a multi-agent simulation computer program that computed indices at each time step of the simulation to quantify the degree to which a group moved in a coordinated way (index of flocking behaviour) and the degree to which specific individuals led the group (index of hierarchical leadership). We ran several series of simulations in order to test our model and determine how these indices behaved under specific agent and world conditions. We identified the agent, world property, and model parameters that made stable, compact flocks emerge, and explored possible environmental properties that predicted the probability of becoming a leader.