Climate change adaptation : a decision support framework to encourage environmentally responsible behaviour

Structured Abstract:
Purpose: Very few studies investigate environmentally responsible behaviour (ERB). This paper presents a new 'Awareness Behaviour Intervention Action' (ABIA) Decision Support Framework to sustain ERB.

Design/methodology/approach: Previous ERB programmes have failed to deliver lasting results; they have not appropriately understood and provided systems to address ERB (Costanzo et al., 1986). These programmes were based on assumptions (Moloney et al., 2010), which this paper addresses. The ABIA Framework has been developed through a case study of social housing tenants waiting for low or zero carbon homes.

Findings: The ABIA Framework enables a better understanding of current attitudes to environmental issues and provides support for ERB alongside technological interventions employed to promote and sustain carbon reduction.

Research limitations/implications: The ABIA Framework should be tested on individuals and communities in a variety of socio-economic, political and cultural contexts. This will help unpack how it can impact on the behaviours of individuals and communities including stakeholders.

Practical implications: This type of research and the ABIA Framework developed from it are crucial if the UK pledge to become the first country in the World where all new homes from 2016 are to be zero carbon.

Social implications: The Framework encourages both individual and community discussion and solving of sustainability issues.

Originality/value: There are few, if any, studies that have developed a framework which can be used to support behavioural change for adaptation to sustainable living in low or zero carbon homes.

Conceptualising climate change in rural Australia : community perceptions, attitudes and (in) actions

Public engagement and support is essential for ensuring adaptation to climate change. The first step in achieving engagement is documenting how the general public currently perceive and understand climate change issues, specifically the importance they place on this global problem and identifying any unique challenges for individual communities. For rural communities, which rely heavily on local agriculture industries, climate change brings both potential impacts and opportunities. Yet, to date, our knowledge about how rural residents conceptualise climate change is limited. Thus, this research explores how the broader rural community – not only farmers – conceptualise climate change and responsive activities, focussing on documenting the understandings and risk perceptions of local residents from two small Australian rural communities. Twenty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted in communities in the Eden/Gippsland region on the border of New South Wales and Victoria, and the North-East of Tasmania. There are conflicting views on how climate change is conceptualised, the degree of concern and need for action, the role of local industry, who will 'win' and 'lose', and the willingness of rural communities to adapt. In particular, residents who believed in anthropogenic or human-induced factors described the changing climate as evidence of 'climate change', whereas those who were more sceptical termed it 'weather variability', suggesting that there is a divide in rural Australia that, unless urgently addressed, will hinder local and national policy responses to this global issue. Engaging these communities in the 21st century climate change debate will require a significant change in terminology and communication strategies.

Assessing adaptation – Climate change and indigenous livelihood in the Andes of Bolivia

Based on a case study of Charazani – Bolivia, this article outlines the understanding of adaptive strategies to cope with climate change and its impact on environmental and socioeconomic conditions that are affecting rural livelihoods. Mainly qualitative methods were used to collect and analyze data following the framework for vulnerability assessments of a socio-ecological system. Climate data reveals an increase of precipitation and temperature during the last decades. Furthermore the occurrence of extreme weather events, particularly drought, frost, hailstorms and consequently landslides and fire are increasing. Local testimonies highlight these events as the principle reasons for agricultural losses. This climatic variability and simultaneous social changes were identified as the drivers of vulnerability. Yet, several adaptive measures were identified at household, community and external levels in order to cope with such vulnerability; e.g. traditional techniques in agriculture and risk management. Gradually, farmers complement these activities with contemporary practices in agriculture, like intensification of land use, diversification of irrigation system and use of artificial fertilizers. As part of a recent trend community members are forced to search for new off-farm alternatives beyond agriculture for subsistence. Despite there is a correspondingly large array of possible adaptation measures that families are implementing, local testimonies point out, that farmers often do not have the capacity and neither the economical resources to mitigate the risk in agricultural production. Although several actions are already considered to promote further adaptive capacity, the current target is to improve existing livelihood strategies by reducing vulnerability to hazards induced by climate change.

From ‘Afflicted’ to Activists: Structural Violence and Climate Change Discourse in the States of Pernambuco and Paraíba in Northeast Brazil

This study approaches the problem of poverty in the hinterlands of Northeast Brazil through the concept of structural violence, linking the environmental threats posed by climate change, especially those related to droughts, to the broader social struggles in the region. When discussions about potentials and rights are incorporated into the problematic of poverty, a deeper insight is obtained regarding the various factors behind the phenomenon. It is generally believed that climate change is affecting the already marginalized and poor more than those of higher social standing, and will increasingly do so in the future. The data for this study was collected during a three month field work in the states of Pernambuco and Paraíba in Northeast Brazil. The main methods used were semi-structured interviews and participant observation, including attending seminars concerning climate change on the field. The focus of the work is to compare both layman and expert perceptions on what climate change is about, and question the assumptions about its effects in the future, mainly that of increased numbers of ‘climate refugees’ or people forced to migrate due to changes in climate. The focus on droughts, as opposed to other manifestations of climate change, arises from the fact that droughts are not only phenomena that develop over a longer time span than floods or hurricanes, but is also due to the historical persistence of droughts in the region, and both the institutional and cultural linkages that have evolved around it. The instances of structural violence that are highlighted in this study; the drought industry, land use, and the social and power relations present in the region, including those between the civil society, the state and the private agribusiness sector, all work against a backdrop of symbolic and moral realms of value production, where relations between the different actors are being negotiated anew with the rise of the climate change discourse. The main theoretical framework of the study consists of Johan Galtung’s and Paul Farmer’s theory of structural violence, Ulrich Beck’s theory of the risk society, and James Scott’s theory of everyday peasant resistance.

International Support of Climate Change Policies in Developing Countries: Strategic, Moral and Fairness Aspects

33 p.

Evidence of resilience to past climate change in Southwest Asia: early farming communities and the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events

Climate change is often cited as a major factor in social change. The so-called 8.2 ka event was one of the most pronounced and abrupt Holocene cold and arid events. The 9.2 ka event was similar, albeit of a smaller magnitude. Both events affected the Northern Hemisphere climate and caused cooling and aridification in Southwest Asia. Yet, the impacts of the 8.2 and 9.2 ka events on early farming communities in this region are not well understood. Current hypotheses for an effect of the 8.2 ka event vary from large-scale site abandonment and migration (including the Neolithisation of Europe) to continuation of occupation and local adaptation, while impacts of the 9.2 ka have not previously been systematically studied. In this paper, we present a thorough assessment of available, quality-checked radiocarbon (14C) dates for sites from Southwest Asia covering the time interval between 9500 and 7500 cal BP, which we interpret in combination with archaeological evidence. In this way, the synchronicity between changes observed in the archaeological record and the rapid climate events is tested. It is shown that there is no evidence for a simultaneous and widespread collapse, large-scale site abandonment, or migration at the time of the events. However, there are indications for local adaptation. We conclude that early farming communities were resilient to the abrupt, severe climate changes at 9250 and 8200 cal BP.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago

The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.

The 'law of requisite variety' may assist climate change negotiations:a review of the Kyoto and Durban meetings

Ashby wrote about cybernetics, during which discourse he described a Law that attempts to resolve difficulties arising in complex situations – he suggested using variety to combat complexity. In this paper, we note that the delegates to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting in Kyoto, 1997, were offered a ‘simplifying solution’ to cope with the complexity of discussing multiple pollutants allegedly contributing to ‘climate change’. We assert that the adoption of CO2eq has resulted in imprecise thinking regarding the ‘carbon footprint’ – that is, ‘CO2’ – to the exclusion of other pollutants. We propose, as Ashby might have done, that the CO2eq and other factors within the ‘climate change’ negotiations be disaggregated to allow careful and specific individual solutions to be agreed on each factor. We propose a new permanent and transparent ‘action group’ be in charge of agenda setting and to manage the messy annual meetings. This body would be responsible for achieving accords at these annual meetings, rather than forcing this task on national hosts. We acknowledge the task is daunting and we recommend moving on from Ashby's Law to Beer's Viable Systems approach.

Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa

The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.

Book Review : Criminological and Legal Consequences of Climate Change. Edited by Stephen Farrell, Tawhida Ahmed and Duncan French (Oxford : Hart Publishing, 272 pp.)

The book addresses a number of pressing social and environmental issues of global concern. It takes the reader on a socio-legal journal of climate change and explores a range of challenging and complex topics including renewable energies, emissions reduction, carbon trading, deforestation, migration and corporate governance.

Using technology to change adult sedentary behaviour, physical activity levels and total wellness

This thesis studied technology’s role in promoting and supporting active lifestyles through behavioural strategies to reduce sedentary time and increase physical activity. The five studies included (1) development of a self-report instrument quantifying daily sedentary behaviour and light-intensity physical activity; (2) establishment of instrument validity and reliability; (3) use of an online personal activity monitor to successfully reduce sedentary time and increase physical activity; (4) identification of positive differences in total wellness as related to high/low levels of sitting time combined with insufficient/sufficient physical activity; and (5) improvement of total wellness through positive changes in sedentary behaviour and physical activity.

Impacts of Climate Change on European Marine Ecosystems: Observations, Expectations and Indicators

The Northern Hemisphere has been warmer since 1980 than at any other time during the last 2000 years. The observed increase in temperature has been generally higher in northern than in southern European seas, and higher in enclosed than in open seas. Although European marine ecosystems are influenced by many other factors, such as nutrient enrichment and overfishing, every region has shown at least some changes that were most likely attributable to recent climate change. It is expected that within open systems there will generally be (further) northward movement of species, leading to a switch from polar to more temperate species in the northern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Sea and the Nordic Seas, and subtropical species moving northward to temperate regions such as the Iberian upwelling margin. For seas that are highly influenced by river runoff, such as the Baltic Sea, an increase in freshwater due to enhanced rainfall will lead to a shift from marine to more brackish and even freshwater species. If semi-enclosed systems such as the Mediterranean and the Black Sea lose their endemic species, the associated niches will probably be filled by species originating from adjacent waters and, possibly, with species transported from one region to another via ballast water and the Suez Canal. A better understanding of potential climate change impacts (scenarios) at both regional and local levels, the development of improved methods to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections, the construction of usable climate change indicators, and an improvement of the interface between science and policy formulation in terms of risk assessment will be essential to formulate and inform better adaptive strategies to address the inevitable consequences of climate change.

The impact of climate change on daily precipitation statistics for Jordan and Israel

A regional climate model is used to investigate changes in Israel and Jordan precipitation at the end of the 21st century on daily to monthly timescales. The model predicts that this region will get significantly drier at the peak of the rainy season, reflecting a reduction in both the frequency and duration of rainy events. These changes may be associated with a reduction in the strength of the Mediterranean storm track