Electoral Platforms, Implemented Policies, and Abstention

Recent studies of American politics evidence that political polarization of both the electorate and the political elite have moved 'almost in tandem for the past half century' (McCarty et al., 2003, p.2), and that party polarization has steadily increased since the 1970s. On the other hand, the empirical literature on party platforms and implemented policies has consistently found an imperfect but nonnegligible correlation between electoral platforms and governmental policies: while platforms tend to be polarized, policies are moderate or centrist. However, existing theoretical models of political competition are not manifestly compatible with these observations. In this paper, we distinguish between electoral platforms and implemented policies by incorporating a non-trivial policy-setting process. It follows that voters may care not only about the implemented policy but also about the platform they support with their vote. We find that while parties tend to polarize their positions, the risk of alienating their constituency prevents them from radicalizing. The analysis evidences that the distribution of the electorate, and not only the (expected) location of a pivotal voter, matters in determining policies. Our results are consistent with the observation of polarized platforms and moderate policies, and the alienation and indifference components of abstention.

Electoral platforms, implemented policies and abstention

Recent studies of American politics evidence that political polarization of both the electorate and the political elite have moved 'almost in tandem for the past half century' (McCarty et al., 2003, p.2), and that party polarization has steadily increased since the 1970s. On the other hand, the empirical literature on party platforms and implemented policies has consistently found an imperfect but nonnegligible correlation between electoral platforms and governmental policies: while platforms tend to be polarized, policies are moderate or centrist. However, existing theoretical models of political competition are not manifestly compatible with these observations.In this paper, we distinguish between electoral platforms and implemented policies by incorporating a non-trivial policy-setting process. It follows that voters may care not only about the implemented policy but also about the platform they support with their vote. We find that while parties tend to polarize their positions, the risk of alienating their constituency prevents them from radicalizing. The analysis evidences that the distribution of the electorate, and not only the (expected) location of a pivotal voter, matters in determining policies. Our results are consistent with the observation of polarized platforms and moderate policies, and the alienation and indifference components of abstention.

L'abstention aux élections européennes de 2004 : Essai d'analyse psychosociale

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

De l'abstention en matière électorale. Principaux moyens d'y remédier.

Mode of access: Internet.

The relationship between body mass index and the variation in plasma levels of triglycerides after short-term red wine consumption

BACKGROUND: Alcoholic beverages may have protective cardiovascular effects but are known to increase the plasma levels of triglycerides (TG). Both TG and the ratio of TO to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-cholesterol) are associated with increased cardiovascular risk. OBJECTIVES: To determine the predictive factors for variations in plasma levels of TO and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio in patients after they had consumed red wine for 14 days. METHODS: Forty-two subjects (64% men, 46 +/- 9 years, baseline body mass index [BMI] 25.13 +/- 2.76 kg/m(2)) were given red wine (12% or 12.2% alc/vol, 250 mL/day with meals). Plasma concentration of lipids and glucose were measured before and after red wine consumption. Blood was collected after 12 hours of fast and alcohol abstention. RESULTS: Red wine increased plasma levels of TO from 105 +/- 42 mg/dL to 120 +/- 56 mg/dL (P = .001) and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio from 2.16 +/- 1.10 to 2.50 +/- 1.66 (P = .014). In a multivariate linear regression model that included age, baseline BMI, blood pressure, lipids, and glucose, only BMI was independently predictive of the variation in plasma TO after red wine (beta coefficient 0.592, P < .001). BMI also predicted the variation in TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio (beta coefficient 0.505, P = .001, adjusted model). When individuals were divided into three categories, according to their BMI, the average percentage variation in TG after red wine was -4%, 17%, and 33% in the lower (19.60-24.45 kg/m(2)), intermediate, and greater (26.30-30.44 kg/m(2)) tertiles, respectively (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with higher BMI, although nonobese, might be at greater risk for elevation in plasma TO levels and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio after short-term red wine consumption. (C) 2011 National Lipid Association. All rights reserved.

Definição de conjuntos de freguesias tipo para estimação eleitoral: eleições legislativas no período 1983 - 2005

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Referenda outcomes and the influence of polls: A social network feedback process

This paper proposes a model to explain the differences between outcomes of referenda and the voting trends suggested by polls. Two main effects are at stake. First, the evolution of the voters' attitudes is conditional on the public information made available to them. Second, the predisposition toward abstention among individuals within each voting group may be different. Our model describes how these two aspects of decision making may interact, showing how publicly available information may amplify the distinct tendency toward abstention between both groups and thus affect the outcome of the referendum.

Determinants of reelection in Portuguese municipal elections

This Work Project investigates the determinants of reelection using data on the 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities for the period 1976-2009. We implement a logit fixed effect model to control for the municipalities’ unobserved characteristics that remain constant over time. Political variables, such as the vote share of the incumbent’s party in previous election, the number of mayor’s consecutive mandates and abstention rate, are found to be relevant in explaining incumbent’s reelection. Moreover, as to the mayor’s individual characteristics, age and education contribute to explain reelection prospects. We also provide weak evidence that a higher degree of fiscal autonomy increases political turnover and that the good economic prospects of the municipality positively affect reelection. Finally, the residents’ level of education and the size of the municipal population have an explanatory power on mayor’s reelection. We perform several robustness checks to confirm these results.

Les temporalités des médicaments : trajectoires en soins palliatifs à l'hôpital

A partir d'un terrain ethnographique réalisé au sein d'une équipe mobile de soins palliatifs d'un hôpital universitaire, cette thèse de doctorat porte sur les médicaments dans le contexte de la fin de vie. Au carrefour d'une socio-anthropologie de la maladie grave, du mourir et des médicaments, elle interroge les rapports à la morphine, ainsi qu'à certains psychotropes et sédatifs utilisés en soins palliatifs. Entre temporalité vécue et temporalité institutionnelle, les manières d'investir le temps lorsqu'il est compté, y sont centrales. Dans une dimension microsociale, les résultats montrent que l'introduction de certains médicaments comme la morphine et l'entrée en scène d'une équipe mobile de soins palliatifs sont des points de repère et peuvent sonner comme une annonce, sorte de sanction, dans la trajectoire incertaine de la personne malade. En outre, les médicaments permettent d'agir sur « le temps qui reste » en plus de soulager les symptômes lorsque la maladie grave bascule en maladie incurable. Ils font l'objet d'usages détournés du but initial de soulagement des symptômes pour repousser, altérer ou accélérer la mort dans une perspective de maîtrise de sa fin de vie. Dans une dimension mésosociale, ce travail considère les médicaments à la base d'échanges entre groupements professionnels sur fond d'institutionnalisation des soins palliatifs par rapport à d'autres segments de la médecine actifs dans la gestion de la fin de vie. Dans une médecine caractérisée par l'incertitude et les décisions -avec une teinte toute particulière en Suisse où le suicide assisté est toléré - les médicaments en soins palliatifs peuvent être considérés comme des instruments de mort, qu'ils soient redoutés ou recherchés. Interrogeant les risques de reproduire un certain nombre d'inégalités de traitements à l'approche de la mort, qui s'accentuent dans un contexte de plus en plus favorable aux pratiques euthanasiques, ce travail se propose, en définitive, de discuter le temps contraint de la mort dans les institutions hospitalo-universitaires, entre acharnement et abstention thérapeutique.¦-¦Based on ethnographie fieldwork conducted within a palliative care mobile team in an academic hospital, this doctoral thesis focuses on medicines used in end of life contexts. At the intersection of a socio-anthropology of illness, dying and pharmaceuticals, the relations to morphine, as well as to some psychotropic and sedative drugs used in palliative care are questioned. Between "lived" experiences of temporality and institutional temporality, the ways by which actors invest time when it is counted, appeared to be central. In a microsocial dimension, the results showed that introducing drugs such as morphine, as well as the arrival of a palliative care mobile team, are landmarks and sound like an announcement, a sort of sanction, during the uncertain trajectory of the ill person. In addition, medicines can act on "the remaining time" when severe illness shifts into incurable illness. Indeed, medicines are being diverted from the initial aim of symptom relief in order to defer, alter or hasten death in a perspective of control over one's death. In a mesosocial dimension, pharmaceuticals are seen as core to professional exchanges and to palliative care institutionalisation compared to other active medical segments in end of life care. In a medical context characterised by uncertainty and decision-taking-with a special shade in Switzerland where assisted suicide is tolerated - palliative medicines can be seen as instruments of death, whether sought or feared. Questioning the risks of reproducing treatment inequalities at the approach of death, which are accentuated in a context increasingly favorable to euthanasia practices, this study aims, ultimately, at discussing death's constrained time in academic hospitals, between therapeutic intervention and abstention.