Bounding ATE with ITT

We propose the bounds on ATE using intention-to-treat (ITT) estimator when there are compliers/noncompliers in randomized trials. The bounds are given as ITT<ATEater with compliers than noncompliers or CACE>NACE, (2) noncompliers' average treatment effect (NACE) is nonnegative. We give an example of poverty impacts of health insurance, and effects of adverse selection and moral hazard of health insurance.

Suitability of relative humidity as an estimator of leaf wetness duration

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) is a key parameter in agricultural meteorology since it is related to epidemiology of many important crops, controlling pathogen infection and development rates. Because LWD is not widely measured, several methods have been developed to estimate it from weather data. Among the models used to estimate LWD, those that use physical principles of dew formation and dew and/or rain evaporation have shown good portability and sufficiently accurate results, but their complexity is a disadvantage for operational use. Alternatively, empirical models have been used despite their limitations. The simplest empirical models use only relative humidity data. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of three RH-based empirical models to estimate LWD in four regions around the world that have different climate conditions. Hourly LWD, air temperature, and relative humidity data were obtained from Ames, IA (USA), Elora, Ontario (Canada), Florence, Toscany (Italy), and Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State (Brazil). These data were used to evaluate the performance of the following empirical LWD estimation models: constant RH threshold (RH >= 90%); dew point depression (DPD); and extended RH threshold (EXT_RH). Different performance of the models was observed in the four locations. In Ames, Elora and Piracicaba, the RH >= 90% and DPD models underestimated LWD, whereas in Florence these methods overestimated LWD, especially for shorter wet periods. When the EXT_RH model was used, LWD was overestimated for all locations, with a significant increase in the errors. In general, the RH >= 90% model performed best, presenting the highest general fraction of correct estimates (F(C)), between 0.87 and 0.92, and the lowest false alarm ratio (F(AR)), between 0.02 and 0.31. The use of specific thresholds for each location improved accuracy of the RH model substantially, even when independent data were used; MAE ranged from 1.23 to 1.89 h, which is very similar to errors obtained with published physical models for LWD estimation. Based on these results, we concluded that, if calibrated locally, LWD can be estimated with acceptable accuracy by RH above a specific threshold, and that the EXT_RH method was unsuitable for estimating LWD at the locations used in this study. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Novel Nonparametric Density Estimator

We present a novel nonparametric density estimator and a new data-driven bandwidth selection method with excellent properties. The approach is in- spired by the principles of the generalized cross entropy method. The pro- posed density estimation procedure has numerous advantages over the tra- ditional kernel density estimator methods. Firstly, for the first time in the nonparametric literature, the proposed estimator allows for a genuine incor- poration of prior information in the density estimation procedure. Secondly, the approach provides the first data-driven bandwidth selection method that is guaranteed to provide a unique bandwidth for any data. Lastly, simulation examples suggest the proposed approach outperforms the current state of the art in nonparametric density estimation in terms of accuracy and reliability.

F-LQE: a Fuzzy Link Quality Estimator for wireless sensor networks

Radio Link Quality Estimation (LQE) is a fundamental building block for Wireless Sensor Networks, namely for a reliable deployment, resource management and routing. Existing LQEs (e.g. PRR, ETX, Fourbit, and LQI ) are based on a single link property, thus leading to inaccurate estimation. In this paper, we propose F-LQE, that estimates link quality on the basis of four link quality properties: packet delivery, asymmetry, stability, and channel quality. Each of these properties is defined in linguistic terms, the natural language of Fuzzy Logic. The overall quality of the link is specified as a fuzzy rule whose evaluation returns the membership of the link in the fuzzy subset of good links. Values of the membership function are smoothed using EWMA filter to improve stability. An extensive experimental analysis shows that F-LQE outperforms existing estimators.

Hospital-acquired infections: a cost estimation for CLABSI in Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

On the Hill estimator: a comparison of methods

Extreme value theory (EVT) deals with the occurrence of extreme phenomena. The tail index is a very important parameter appearing in the estimation of the probability of rare events. Under a semiparametric framework, inference requires the choice of a number k of upper order statistics to be considered. This is the crux of the matter and there is no definite formula to do it, since a small k leads to high variance and large values of k tend to increase the bias. Several methodologies have emerged in literature, specially concerning the most popular Hill estimator (Hill, 1975). In this work we compare through simulation well-known procedures presented in Drees and Kaufmann (1998), Matthys and Beirlant (2000), Beirlant et al. (2002) and de Sousa and Michailidis (2004), with a heuristic scheme considered in Frahm et al. (2005) within the estimation of a different tail measure but with a similar context. We will see that the new method may be an interesting alternative.

On convergence of the maximum likelihood estimator in adaptive designs

Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg, Fakultät für Mathematik, Dissertation, 2016

Imaging EEG synchronization in schizophrenia patients with S-estimator

Recently a new measure of the cooperative behavior of simultaneous time series was introduced (Carmeli et al. NeuroImage 2005). This measure called S-estimator is defined from the embedding dimension in a state space. S-estimator quantifies the amount of synchronization within a data set by comparing the actual dimensionality of the set with the expected full dimensionality of the asynchronous set. It has the advantage of being a multivariate measure over traditionally used in systems neuroscience bivariate measures of synchronization. Multivariate measures of synchronization are of particular interest for applications in the field of modern multichannel EEG research, since they easily allow mapping of local and/or regional synchronization and are compatible with other imaging techniques. We applied Sestimator to the analysis of EEG synchronization in schizophrenia patients vs. matched controls. The whole-head mapping with S-estimator revealed a specific pattern of local synchronization in schizophrenia patients. The differences in the landscape of synchronization included decreased local synchronization in the territories over occipital and midline areas and increased synchronization over temporal areas. In frontal areas, the S-estimator revealed a tendency for an asymmetry: decreased S-values over the left hemisphere were adjacent to increased values over the right hemisphere. Separate calculations showed reproducibility of this pattern across the main EEG frequency bands. The maintenance of the same synchronization landscape across EEG frequencies probably implies the structural changes in the cortical circuitry of schizophrenia patients. These changes are regionally specific and suggest that schizophrenia is a misconnectivity rather than hypo- or hyper-connectivity disorder.

Biomphalaria spp. (Preston, 1910) snails in the municipality of Juiz de Fora, Zona da Mata Mineira mesoregion, ate of Minas Gerais, Brazil

This study focuses on the geographic distribution of the snail of the genus Biomphalaria and evaluates its infectivity by Schistosoma mansoni in 5264 specimens collected in the municipality of Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Of the 31 locations studied, 6 were reservoirs, 11 rudimentary holding ponds, 7 irrigation ditches, 5 lakes, 1 ornamental pond, and 1 waterfall. Intermediate hosts were found only in the rudimentary ponds and ditches, which were 100% positive. Using morphological and molecular analysis techniques, B. tenagophila, B. peregrina, and B. straminea were identified. This is the first report of B. stramínea in the municipality, and evaluation of its infective potential revealed susceptibility of 25.4%. Although we did not find specimens of Biomphalaria infected by S. mansoni, the data obtained indicate the presence of intermediate hosts, especially in the irrigation ditches in Juiz de Fora, and their proximity to contaminated areas.

Biokinetics and dosimetry of 111 In-DOTA-NOC-ATE compared with 111In-DTPA-Octreotide

Aim: Biokinetics and dosimetry of 111In-DOTA-NOC-ATE (NOCATE) and 111In-DTPA-octreotide (Octreoscan?, OCTREO) were comparatively studied in the same patients. Patients and Methods: Seventeen patients (10 males, 7 females), mean age 60 years referred for an Octreoscan? because of carcinoid (N=9), unspecified neurodendocrine tumors (N=6), thymoma (N=1) or medullary thyroid carcinoma (N=1) accepted a second study with NOCATE. Four patients had no detectable tumor at the time of scanning. Whole-body (WB) anterior-posterior scans were recorded 0.5 (100% reference scan), 4, 24 and 48 hrs (N=17) and 120 hrs (N=6) after injection. OCTREO (178±15 MBq) preceded NOCATE (108±14 MBq) imaging with 16±5 days in 16 patients while 1 patient had first NOCATE followed 14 days later by OCTREO. Blood samples were taken 5, 15, 30, 60, 240 and 1440 min after injection. Background corrected geometric mean counts of WB, lung, kidney, liver, spleen and blood counts expressed in % of the initial composite WB and blood counts, respectively were fitted to bi- or single exponential curves and dosimetry was performed for male and female patients using MIRDOSE3.1 and OLINDA/EXM. Results: Initially, WB, lung and kidney activity was similar but retention was significantly higher for NOCATE compared with OCTREO. Liver and spleen uptake of NOCATE was higher from beginning (p<0.001) and remained so over time. Activity in rest of body showed similar α and β half-lives, but the β half-life fraction of NOCATE was much higher than OCTREO (49% vs. 19%, respectively). Blood T1/2β was longer for NOCATE compared with OCTREO (19 vs. 6h). Residence times were similar in male and female patients while they were in both genders higher for NOCATE than OCTREO. Consequently, effective dose (ED) for NOCATE (ED 114 and 134 μSv/MBq for man and women, respectively) exceeded that of OCTREO (ED = 61 and 71 μSv/MBq), the latter results being close to the ICRP-published radiation dose of OCTREO (ED = 54 and 71 µSv/MBq, respectively). Differential activity measurement in blood cells and plasma showed that only a minor fraction of NOCATE and OCTREO (<5 % in the mean) was bound to globular blood components. Conclusions: NOCATE showed higher retention in normal organs and delivered roughly twice the radiation dose of OCTREO. The ED of OCTREO in these patients was similar to ICRP80 report when adopting a bladder voiding interval of 2 hours.

Statistical analysis of maximum likelihood estimator images of human brain FDG PET studies

The work presented evaluates the statistical characteristics of regional bias and expected error in reconstructions of real positron emission tomography (PET) data of human brain fluoro-deoxiglucose (FDG) studies carried out by the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) method with a robust stopping rule, and compares them with the results of filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstructions and with the method of sieves. The task of evaluating radioisotope uptake in regions-of-interest (ROIs) is investigated. An assessment of bias and variance in uptake measurements is carried out with simulated data. Then, by using three different transition matrices with different degrees of accuracy and a components of variance model for statistical analysis, it is shown that the characteristics obtained from real human FDG brain data are consistent with the results of the simulation studies.

Biokinetics and dosimetry of (111)In-DOTA-NOC-ATE compared with (111)In-DTPA-octreotide.

PURPOSE: The biokinetics and dosimetry of (111)In-DOTA-NOC-ATE (NOCATE), a high-affinity ligand of SSTR-2 and SSTR-5, and (111)In-DTPA-octreotide (Octreoscan?, OCTREO) were compared in the same patients. METHODS: Seventeen patients (10 men, 7 women; mean age 60 years), referred for an OCTREO scan for imaging of a neuroendocrine tumour (15), thymoma (1) or medullary thyroid carcinoma (1), agreed to undergo a second study with NOCATE. Whole-body anterior-posterior scans were recorded 0.5 (100 % reference scan), 4, 24 and 48 h (17 patients) and 120 h (5 patients) after injection. In 16 patients the OCTREO scan (178 ± 15 MBq) was performed 16 ± 5 days before the NOCATE scan (108 ± 14 MBq) with identical timing; 1 patient had the NOCATE scan before the OCTREO scan. Blood samples were obtained from 14 patients 5 min to 48 h after injection. Activities expressed as percent of the initial (reference) activity in the whole body, lung, kidney, liver, spleen and blood were fitted to biexponential or single exponential functions. Dosimetry was performed using OLINDA/EXM. RESULTS: Initial whole-body, lung and kidney activities were similar, but retention of NOCATE was higher than that of OCTREO. Liver and spleen uptakes of NOCATE were higher from the start (p < 0.001) and remained so over time. Whole-body activity showed similar α and β half-lives, but the β fraction of NOCATE was double that of OCTREO. Blood T (1/2)β for NOCATE was longer (19 vs. 6 h). As a result, the effective dose of NOCATE (105 μSv/MBq) exceeded that of OCTREO (52 μSv/MBq), and the latter result was similar to the ICRP 106 value of 54 μSv/MBq. Differential activity measurement in blood cells and plasma showed an average of <5 % of NOCATE and OCTREO attached to globular blood components. CONCLUSION: NOCATE showed a slower clearance from normal tissues and its effective dose was roughly double that of OCTREO.