ARX, model thinking: taxonomy and operativity of an architectural process

The purpose of this work was to establish a taxonomy of hand made model construction as a platform for an approach to project an operative method in architecture. It was therefore studied and catalogued in a systematic approach a broad model production in the work of ARX. A wide range of families and sub-families of models were found, with different purposes according to each phase of development, from searching steps for a new possible configuration to detailed refined decisions. This working method revealed as most relevant characteristics, the grounds for a potential personal reflection and open discussion on project method, its flexibility on space modeling, an accuracy on the representation of real construction situations and its constant and stimulating opening to new suggestions. This research helped on a meta-reflection about this method, having been useful on creating a consciousness of processes that pretend to become an autonomous language, knowledge that might become useful to those who pretend to implement a haptic modus operandi in the work of an architectural project.

Application of ARX neural networks to model the rate of penetration of petroleum wells drilling

Bit performance prediction has been a challenging problem for the petroleum industry. It is essential in cost reduction associated with well planning and drilling performance prediction, especially when rigs leasing rates tend to follow the projects-demand and barrel-price rises. A methodology to model and predict one of the drilling bit performance evaluator, the Rate of Penetration (ROP), is presented herein. As the parameters affecting the ROP are complex and their relationship not easily modeled, the application of a Neural Network is suggested. In the present work, a dynamic neural network, based on the Auto-Regressive with Extra Input Signals model, or ARX model, is used to approach the ROP modeling problem. The network was applied to a real oil offshore field data set, consisted of information from seven wells drilled with an equal-diameter bit.

Damage detection in a benchmark structure using AR-ARX models and statistical pattern recognition

Structural health monitoring (SHM) is related to the ability of monitoring the state and deciding the level of damage or deterioration within aerospace, civil and mechanical systems. In this sense, this paper deals with the application of a two-step auto-regressive and auto-regressive with exogenous inputs (AR-ARX) model for linear prediction of damage diagnosis in structural systems. This damage detection algorithm is based on the. monitoring of residual error as damage-sensitive indexes, obtained through vibration response measurements. In complex structures there are. many positions under observation and a large amount of data to be handed, making difficult the visualization of the signals. This paper also investigates data compression by using principal component analysis. In order to establish a threshold value, a fuzzy c-means clustering is taken to quantify the damage-sensitive index in an unsupervised learning mode. Tests are made in a benchmark problem, as proposed by IASC-ASCE with different damage patterns. The diagnosis that was obtained showed high correlation with the actual integrity state of the structure. Copyright © 2007 by ABCM.

Applying a genetic neuro-model reference adaptive controller in drilling optimization

Motivated by rising drilling operation costs, the oil industry has shown a trend toward real-time measurements and control. In this scenario, drilling control becomes a challenging problem for the industry, especially due to the difficulty associated with parameters modeling. One of the drillbit performance evaluators, the Rate Of Penetration (ROP), has been used as a drilling control parameter. However, relationships between operational variables affecting the ROP are complex and not easily modeled. This work presents a neuro-genetic adaptive controller to treat this problem. It is based on an auto-regressive with extra input signals, or ARX model and on a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to control the ROP. © [2006] IEEE.

A genetic neuro-model reference adaptive controller for petroleum wells drilling operations

Motivated by rising drilling operation costs, the oil industry has shown a trend towards real-time measurements and control. In this scenario, drilling control becomes a challenging problem for the industry, especially due to the difficulty associated to parameters modeling. One of the drill-bit performance evaluators, the Rate of Penetration (ROP), has been used in the literature as a drilling control parameter. However, the relationships between the operational variables affecting the ROP are complex and not easily modeled. This work presents a neuro-genetic adaptive controller to treat this problem. It is based on the Auto-Regressive with Extra Input Signals model, or ARX model, to accomplish the system identification and on a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to provide a robust control for the ROP. Results of simulations run over a real offshore oil field data, consisted of seven wells drilled with equal diameter bits, are provided. © 2006 IEEE.

Modelling and Prediction of NOx Emission in a Coal-Fired Power Generation Plant

In this paper NOx emissions modelling for real-time operation and control of a 200 MWe coal-fired power generation plant is studied. Three model types are compared. For the first model the fundamentals governing the NOx formation mechanisms and a system identification technique are used to develop a grey-box model. Then a linear AutoRegressive model with eXogenous inputs (ARX) model and a non-linear ARX model (NARX) are built. Operation plant data is used for modelling and validation. Model cross-validation tests show that the developed grey-box model is able to consistently produce better overall long-term prediction performance than the other two models.

Blind Characterisation of Sensors with Second-Order Dynamic Response

Compensation for the dynamic response of a temperature sensor usually involves the estimation of its input on the basis of the measured output and model parameters. In the case of temperature measurement, the sensor dynamic response is strongly dependent on the measurement environment and fluid velocity. Estimation of time-varying sensor model parameters therefore requires continuous textit{in situ} identification. This can be achieved by employing two sensors with different dynamic properties, and exploiting structural redundancy to deduce the sensor models from the resulting data streams. Most existing approaches to this problem assume first-order sensor dynamics. In practice, however second-order models are more reflective of the dynamics of real temperature sensors, particularly when they are encased in a protective sheath. As such, this paper presents a novel difference equation approach to solving the blind identification problem for sensors with second-order models. The approach is based on estimating an auxiliary ARX model whose parameters are related to the desired sensor model parameters through a set of coupled non-linear algebraic equations. The ARX model can be estimated using conventional system identification techniques and the non-linear equations can be solved analytically to yield estimates of the sensor models. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach under various input and parameter conditions.

Subspace system identification framework for the analysis of multimoded propagation of THz-transient signals

We provide a system identification framework for the analysis of THz-transient data. The subspace identification algorithm for both deterministic and stochastic systems is used to model the time-domain responses of structures under broadband excitation. Structures with additional time delays can be modelled within the state-space framework using additional state variables. We compare the numerical stability of the commonly used least-squares ARX models to that of the subspace N4SID algorithm by using examples of fourth-order and eighth-order systems under pulse and chirp excitation conditions. These models correspond to structures having two and four modes simultaneously propagating respectively. We show that chirp excitation combined with the subspace identification algorithm can provide a better identification of the underlying mode dynamics than the ARX model does as the complexity of the system increases. The use of an identified state-space model for mode demixing, upon transformation to a decoupled realization form is illustrated. Applications of state-space models and the N4SID algorithm to THz transient spectroscopy as well as to optical systems are highlighted.

Um sistema para estimação da vazão de gás de poços produzindo por Plunger Lift para vaso separador de teste em plataformas de petróleo

This work intends to analyze the behavior of the gas flow of plunger lift wells producing to well testing separators in offshore production platforms to aim a technical procedure to estimate the gas flow during the slug production period. The motivation for this work appeared from the expectation of some wells equipped with plunger lift method by PETROBRAS in Ubarana sea field located at Rio Grande do Norte State coast where the produced fluids measurement is made in well testing separators at the platform. The oil artificial lift method called plunger lift is used when the available energy of the reservoir is not high enough to overcome all the necessary load losses to lift the oil from the bottom of the well to the surface continuously. This method consists, basically, in one free piston acting as a mechanical interface between the formation gas and the produced liquids, greatly increasing the well s lifting efficiency. A pneumatic control valve is mounted at the flow line to control the cycles. When this valve opens, the plunger starts to move from the bottom to the surface of the well lifting all the oil and gas that are above it until to reach the well test separator where the fluids are measured. The well test separator is used to measure all the volumes produced by the well during a certain period of time called production test. In most cases, the separators are designed to measure stabilized flow, in other words, reasonably constant flow by the use of level and pressure electronic controllers (PLC) and by assumption of a steady pressure inside the separator. With plunger lift wells the liquid and gas flow at the surface are cyclical and unstable what causes the appearance of slugs inside the separator, mainly in the gas phase, because introduce significant errors in the measurement system (e.g.: overrange error). The flow gas analysis proposed in this work is based on two mathematical models used together: i) a plunger lift well model proposed by Baruzzi [1] with later modifications made by Bolonhini [2] to built a plunger lift simulator; ii) a two-phase separator model (gas + liquid) based from a three-phase separator model (gas + oil + water) proposed by Nunes [3]. Based on the models above and with field data collected from the well test separator of PUB-02 platform (Ubarana sea field) it was possible to demonstrate that the output gas flow of the separator can be estimate, with a reasonable precision, from the control signal of the Pressure Control Valve (PCV). Several models of the System Identification Toolbox from MATLAB® were analyzed to evaluate which one better fit to the data collected from the field. For validation of the models, it was used the AIC criterion, as well as a variant of the cross validation criterion. The ARX model performance was the best one to fit to the data and, this way, we decided to evaluate a recursive algorithm (RARX) also with real time data. The results were quite promising that indicating the viability to estimate the output gas flow rate from a plunger lift well producing to a well test separator, with the built-in information of the control signal to the PCV

Metodologia baseada em sistema fuzzy intervalar do tipo-2 para detecção e identificação de faltas de incipientes em motores de indução

Desde a incorporação da automação no processo produtivo, a busca por sistemas mais eficientes, objetivando o aumento da produtividade e da qualidade dos produtos e serviços, direcionou os estudos para o planejamento de estratégias que permitissem o monitoramento de sistemas com o intuito principal de torna-los mais autônomos e robustos. Por esse motivo, as pesquisas envolvendo o diagnóstico de faltas em sistemas industriais tornaram-se mais intensivas, visto a necessidade da incorporação de técnicas para monitoramente detalhado de sistemas. Tais técnicas permitem a verificação de perturbações, falta ou mesmo falhas. Em vista disso, essa trabalho investiga técnicas de detecção e diagnostico de faltas e sua aplicação em motores de indução trifásicos, delimitando o seu estudo em duas situações: sistemas livre de faltas, e sobre atuação da falta incipiente do tipo curto-circuitoparcial nas espiras do enrolamento do estator. Para a detecção de faltas, utilizou-se analise paramétrica dos parâmetros de um modelo de tempo discreto, de primeira ordem, na estrutura autoregressivo com entradas exógenas (ARX). Os parâmetros do modelo ARX, que trazem informação sobre a dinâmica dominante do sistema, são obtidos recursivamente pela técnica dos mínimos quadrados recursivos (MQR). Para avaliação da falta, foi desenvolvido um sistema de inferência fuzzy (SIF) intervala do tipo-2, cuja mancha de incerteza ou footprint of uncertainty (FOU), características de sistema fuzzy tipo-2, é ideal como forma de representar ruídos inerentes a sistemas reais e erros numéricos provenientes do processo de estimação paramétrica. Os parâmetros do modelo ARX são entradas para o SIF. Algoritmos genéricos (AG’s) foram utilizados para otimização dos SIF intervalares tipo-2, objetivando reduzir o erro de diagnóstico da falta identificada na saída desses sistemas. Os resultados obtidos em teste de simulação computacional demonstram a efetividade da metodologia proposta.

Fault diagnosis of an automotive suspension system

With the development of the embedded application and driving assistance systems, it becomes relevant to develop parallel mechanisms in order to check and to diagnose these new systems. In this thesis we focus our research on one of this type of parallel mechanisms and analytical redundancy for fault diagnosis of an automotive suspension system. We have considered a quarter model car passive suspension model and used a parameter estimation, ARX model, method to detect the fault happening in the damper and spring of system. Moreover, afterward we have deployed a neural network classifier to isolate the faults and identifies where the fault is happening. Then in this regard, the safety measurements and redundancies can take into the effect to prevent failure in the system. It is shown that The ARX estimator could quickly detect the fault online using the vertical acceleration and displacement sensor data which are common sensors in nowadays vehicles. Hence, the clear divergence is the ARX response make it easy to deploy a threshold to give alarm to the intelligent system of vehicle and the neural classifier can quickly show the place of fault occurrence.

Model-predictive control and closed-loop stability considerations for nonlinear plants described by local ARX-type models

In this paper, a model-predictive control (MPC) method is detailed for the control of nonlinear systems with stability considerations. It will be assumed that the plant is described by a local input/output ARX-type model, with the control potentially included in the premise variables, which enables the control of systems that are nonlinear in both the state and control input. Additionally, for the case of set point regulation, a suboptimal controller is derived which has the dual purpose of ensuring stability and enabling finite-iteration termination of the iterative procedure used to solve the nonlinear optimization problem that is used to determine the control signal.

Mixed source model and its adapted vocal tract filter estimate for voice transformation and synthesis

In current methods for voice transformation and speech synthesis, the vocal tract filter is usually assumed to be excited by a flat amplitude spectrum. In this article, we present a method using a mixed source model defined as a mixture of the Liljencrants-Fant (LF) model and Gaussian noise. Using the LF model, the base approach used in this presented work is therefore close to a vocoder using exogenous input like ARX-based methods or the Glottal Spectral Separation (GSS) method. Such approaches are therefore dedicated to voice processing promising an improved naturalness compared to generic signal models. To estimate the Vocal Tract Filter (VTF), using spectral division like in GSS, we show that a glottal source model can be used with any envelope estimation method conversely to ARX approach where a least square AR solution is used. We therefore derive a VTF estimate which takes into account the amplitude spectra of both deterministic and random components of the glottal source. The proposed mixed source model is controlled by a small set of intuitive and independent parameters. The relevance of this voice production model is evaluated, through listening tests, in the context of resynthesis, HMM-based speech synthesis, breathiness modification and pitch transposition. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of subspace and ARX models of a waveguide's terahertz transient response after optimal wavelet filtering

A quasi-optical deembedding technique for characterizing waveguides is demonstrated using wide-band time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy. A transfer function representation is adopted for the description of the signal in the input and output port of the waveguides. The time-domain responses were discretized and the waveguide transfer function was obtained through a parametric approach in the z-domain after describing the system with an AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (ARX), as well as with a state-space model. Prior to the identification procedure, filtering was performed in the wavelet domain to minimize both signal distortion, as well as the noise propagating in the ARX and subspace models. The optimal filtering procedure used in the wavelet domain for the recorded time-domain signatures is described in detail. The effect of filtering prior to the identification procedures is elucidated with the aid of pole-zero diagrams. Models derived from measurements of terahertz transients in a precision WR-8 waveguide adjustable short are presented.

Temperature regulation of a pilot-scale batch reaction system via explicit model predictive control

In this paper, the temperature of a pilot-scale batch reaction system is modeled towards the design of a controller based on the explicit model predictive control (EMPC) strategy -- Some mathematical models are developed from experimental data to describe the system behavior -- The simplest, yet reliable, model obtained is a (1,1,1)-order ARX polynomial model for which the mentioned EMPC controller has been designed -- The resultant controller has a reduced mathematical complexity and, according to the successful results obtained in simulations, will be used directly on the real control system in a next stage of the entire experimental framework