Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

The LTTE Proposals for an Interim Self-Governing Authority and Future of the Peace Process in Sri Lanka

The political brinkmanship of the Liberation Tigers of the Tamil Eelam has been illustrated vividly by the way in which it brought forward its proposals for an Interim Self-Governing Authority by exploiting the vulnerabilities of the United National Front Government. In the proposals the LTTE articulated its political intentions in concrete constitutional terms for the first time. The Proposals rationalize the armed struggle and a contractual agreement outside the Constitution. The plenary powers of the ISGA exceed the federal formula; effectively exclude the institutions of the state of Sri Lanka from the North-East; and clear the route for a separate state. This situation demands a redirection of the peace process which requires a clear political vision and a proper strategy with alternative proposals on the part of the government. In the face of present impasse of the peace process the challenges before the new Freedom Alliance government are formidable.

ルワンダにおける二つの紛争－ジェノサイドはいかに可能となったのか

独立直前の「社会革命」と1990年代の内戦というルワンダにおける２つの紛争を比較し、後者が50万人以上の犠牲者を生んだジェノサイドへと至ったメカニズムを考察する。２つの紛争はいずれも国家権力闘争に発する内戦であり、それがエスニックな紛争へと転化した点で似ているが、犠牲者の数は圧倒的に異なる。ジェノサイドが可能になったのは、権力喪失の危機感を抱いた急進派が特定のエスニック集団の殺戮を正当化するイデオロギーを流布し、かつ地方行政機構をはじめとする国家機構を動員して民間人の殺戮を実践したからであった。こうした国家機構を通じた動員は、冷戦下に存立した国家のあり方に由来する。国際環境の変化がこうした国家を脆弱化させて紛争を引き起こす一方、従来の体制下で成立した動員システムを急進派が利用し、組織的な暴力が行使されたためにジェノサイドに至ったといえる。

ルワンダの紛争とエスニシティ－創られた民族？

1994年に100万人近い犠牲者を生んだルワンダの虐殺では、トゥチという民族が殺戮の主たる対象となった。言語、宗教、居住地に違いがなく、植民地化以前からの長い歴史を共有するルワンダにおいて、なぜ一つの民族名が殺戮の符丁となったのか。植民地化以降の国家の変容とエスニシティ創出の過程を歴史的に分析した。

Ethnicity and Elections under Authoritarianism: The Case of Kazakhstan

Despite the ethnicisation of power since independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has managed to maintain political stability without experiencing large-scale mobilisation to oppose Kazakh domination. This paper examines government strategy to avoid ethnic voting in an attempt to explain why ethnic divisions were rarely reflected in the struggle for power in the republic. While the arbitrary use of legal provisions considerably limited participation in elections by ethnic leaders, powerful pro-president parties that exhibited a cross-ethnic character were created to curtail ethnically based movements. The control strategy in elections aimed not simply at ethnicising the parliament in favour of Kazakhs, but at having loyal Russians and other minorities represented in the legislature through nomination by the president and catch-all pro-regime parties, or through the presidential consultative body—Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan. This well-controlled representation of minorities served not only to placate non-Kazakhs but also to provide legitimacy for the Kazakh-dominated leadership by projecting the image of cross-ethnic support for the president and some degree of power-sharing.

The inverted Chinese / China problem in Indonesia : a preliminary analysis on the 2011 Surabaya incident

A clash between the police and journalists covering a Falun Gong gathering in Surabaya 2011 have shown a significant change in understanding the triangular relationship between Indonesia, China and the Ethnic Chinese in Indonesia. During the Suharto period, ethnic Chinese in Indonesia and China as a foreign state were the problems for the Indonesian government. After the political reforms in Indonesia together with the Rise of China in 2000s, in some situation, it is the Indonesian government together with the Chinese government which is the problem for some ethnic Chinese in Indonesia. Ethnic Chinese people were seen to be close with China and their loyalty to the nation was doubted. But now it is the Indonesian government which is viewed as being too close to China and thus harming national integrity, and suspected of being unnationalistic.

欧州新興民主主義国における民族的寛容

新興民主主義国において，政治的寛容の対象となる最大の集団のひとつは民族的少数派に属する市民である。欧州でも新興民主主義国では先進民主主義国と異なり，民族的少数派市民の人口比は外国人人口比よりはるかに大きい。ところで民族的少数派市民は外国人に比べて，民族的多数派に認知されている。このことからすると，民族的少数派市民の人口比が大きければ，個人的接触を促す一方で，社会的脅威感を呼び起こしにくいため，寛容が高まると考えられる。本稿は欧州の新興民主主義16カ国についてのユーロバロメーターの個票データと国別マクロデータからなるデータセットを階層線形モデルで分析した。そして，外国人人口比が政治的寛容を弱めるのに対し，民族的少数派市民の人口比が政治的寛容を強めるとの結果を得た。