Economic voting and electoral volatility in Turkish provinces

Two groups of questions were addressed in this paper: (1) Is voter punishment of the incumbent the primary factor in electoral volatility? Are there any other types of vote swings that underlie volatility? (2) In general, does a decline in economic growth destabilize voter behavior? If so, what kinds of vote swings does an economic downturn tend to generate? Provincial-level panel data analysis yielded the following results: (1) Changes in volatility is primarily due to vote swings from the incumbent to the opposition and also to and from left-wing and right-wing parties. (2) Lower economic growth increases electoral volatility. Economic decline induces vote swings not only from the government to the opposition but also from left-wing to right-wing parties. This is probably because right-wing parties seem more concerned with economic issues and are thus more popular than left-wing parties with lower-income voters.

Establishing electoral administration systems in new democracies

The difficulty of holding fair elections continues to be a critical problem in many newly democratized countries. The core of the problem is the electoral administration's lack of political autonomy and capability to regulate fraud. This paper seeks to identify the conditions for establishing an autonomous and capable electoral administration system. An electoral administration system has two main functions: to disclose the nature of elections and to prevent fraud. We argue in this paper that an autonomous and capable electoral administration system exists if the major political players have the incentive to disclose the information on the elections and to secure the ruler's credible commitment to fair elections. We examine this argument through comparative case studies of Korea and the Philippines. Despite similar historical and institutional settings, their election commissions exhibit contrasting features. The difference in the incentive structures of the major political players seems to have caused the divergence in the institutional evolution of the election commissions in the two countries.

Varareittisuunnitelma Pohjois-Pohjanmaan ELY-keskuksen alueen itäosan kantateille : Kantatiet 75, 76, 78, 81 ja 89

Pääteillä esiintyvien häiriöiden, kuten onnettomuuksien, tietöiden, tapahtumien ja poikkeuksellisten ruuhkatilanteiden varalle tarvitaan varareittejä, joille liikenne voidaan häiriön sattuessa ohjata joko kokonaan tai osittain. Varareitit ja niiden opastus tulee olla ennalta suunniteltuja, jolloin niiden käyttöönotto sujuu häiriötilanteessa mahdollisimman vaivattomasti eri viranomaisten yhteistyönä. Häiriötilanteiden hallinnassa paitsi suunnitellut varareitit ja niiden liikenteen ohjaus, myös tiivis yhteistyö eri viranomaisten välillä on oleellista tilanteen sujuvan hoitamisen kannalta. Tässä raportissa on esitetty Pohjois-Pohjanmaan itäosan kantateille liikenteen häiriötilanteissa käytettävät varareitit, häiriöpaikalla tapahtuvan liikenteenohjauksen periaatekuva sekä varareittien liikenteenohjaussuunnitelmat. Suunnittelualueella on, kuten pääsääntöisesti koko Suomen tieverkolla, varsin vähän lyhyitä ja aina kaikelle liikenteelle soveltuvia varareittejä. Tämän vuoksi suunnitelmassa määritettiin varsinkin raskaan liikenteen tarpeita ajatellen myös pidempiä varareittejä. Pidemmille varareiteille liikennettä ohjattaessa korostuu tiedotuksen ja liikenteenohjauskaluston tärkeys. Varareitin aktivoinnissa ja liikenteenohjauksen järjestämisessä korostuu yhteistyö liikenneviraston tieliikennekeskuksen kanssa. ELYkeskus vastaa kustannuksista, urakoitsijan kanssa tehdyn sopimuksen mukaisesti, jotka syntyvät urakoitsijan toiminnasta häiriöhallintatilanteen purkamisessa

PREDICTION OF FAT-FREE MASS BY BIOELECTRICAL IMPEDANCE ANALYSIS IN OLDER ADULTS FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A CROSS-VALIDATION STUDY USING THE DEUTERIUM DILUTION METHOD

Objective: Several limitations of published bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations have been reported. The aims were to develop in a multiethnic, elderly population a new prediction equation and cross-validate it along with some published BIA equations for estimating fat-free mass using deuterium oxide dilution as the reference method. Design and setting: Cross-sectional study of elderly from five developing countries. Methods: Total body water (TBW) measured by deuterium dilution was used to determine fat-free mass (FFM) in 383 subjects. Anthropometric and BIA variables were also measured. Only 377 subjects were included for the analysis, randomly divided into development and cross-validation groups after stratified by gender. Stepwise model selection was used to generate the model and Bland Altman analysis was used to test agreement. Results: FFM = 2.95 - 3.89 (Gender) + 0.514 (Ht(2)/Z) + 0.090 (Waist) + 0.156 (Body weight). The model fit parameters were an R(2), total F-Ratio, and the SEE of 0.88, 314.3, and 3.3, respectively. None of the published BIA equations met the criteria for agreement. The new BIA equation underestimated FFM by just 0.3 kg in the cross-validation sample. The mean of the difference between FFM by TBW and the new BIA equation were not significantly different; 95% of the differences were between the limits of agreement of -6.3 to 6.9 kg of FFM. There was no significant association between the mean of the differences and their averages (r = 0.008 and p = 0.2). Conclusions: This new BIA equation offers a valid option compared with some of the current published BIA equations to estimate FFM in elderly subjects from five developing countries.

Jornal da UNESP, 2015, ano XXXI, n. 314

Jornal elaborado pela Assessoria de Comunicação e Imprensa da Reitoria da UNESP

Utilidade Clínica do (1->3) B-D-glucano como marcador laboratorial no diagnóstico de Pneumonia por Pneumocystis jirovecii

A pneumonia por Pneumocystis jirovecii (PPc) é uma das principais causas de morte em doentes imunocomprometidos, revestindo-se assim de elevado interesse o diagnóstico precoce desta infecção, por forma a instaurar a terapêutica adequada. Actualmente, os meios laboratoriais de diagnóstico baseiam-se fundamentalmente na detecção directa deste microrganismo nas secreções pulmonares dos doentes, o que implica a realização de procedimentos invasivos. É nessa perspectiva que surge o doseamento do β-glucano no soro de doentes com presumível infecção, uma vez que, este composto é um dos principais componentes da parede dos quistos de P. jirovecii. Neste estudo procedeu-se ao doseamento do β-glucano em amostras de soro de 66 indivíduos e verificou-se que, nos 47 indivíduos que confirmaram o diagnóstico de PPc, a mediana de β-glucano obtida foi de 314,5 pg/mL, enquanto nos restantes 19 foi de 63,7 pg/mL. Estatisticamente obteve-se uma forte correlação entre níveis elevados de β-glucano no soro de doentes e a presença de infecção por P. jirovecii. Em relação ao diagnóstico clínico, os resultados obtidos demonstraram correlação entre um diagnóstico clinico sugestivo de PPc e níveis elevados de β-glucano no soro. Constatou-se ainda que, para a infecção por P. jirovecii o cut-off que apresentou melhores resultados para o teste Fungitell® situa-se nos 100 pg/mL, obtiveram-se resultados de sensibilidade de 89% e especificidade de 74%. Estudos preliminares apontaram para o facto de níveis elevados de β-glucano no soro corresponderem a níveis elevados de parasitémia e uma evolução clínica negativa da doença.

Observation of initial clinical manifestations and repercussions from the treatment of 314 human injuries caused by black sea urchins (Echinometra lucunter) on the southeastern Brazilian coast

INTRODUCTION: Injuries caused by sea urchins are the most common caused by marine animals in humans in Brazil, with the black sea urchin (Echinometra lucunter) causing the most injuries to bathers. METHODS: This study observed 314 human wounds with emphasis on the early observation of clinical signs and symptoms and their implications on the recommended treatment. RESULTS: All the injuries were caused by black sea urchins and were observed in bathers. The lesions and the pain were associated with penetration of the spines; there was no early inflammation or pain without pressure on the wounded places. Complications arising from this kind on injury, including infections and foreign body granulomas, are associated with the permanence of the spines in the wounds. CONCLUSIONS: The study confirmed that this kind of injury is the most common accident caused by aquatic animals in Brazil. The main therapeutical recommendation is early removal of the spines to prevent late complications, such as infections and the formation of foreign body granulomas.

PRODUÇÃO PESQUEIRA EM PORTO VELHO, RONDÔNIA (1984-89) - ALGUNS ASPECTOS ECOLÓGICOS DAS ESPÉCIES COMERCIALMENTE RELEVANTES.

Foi realizado o levantamento do pescado comercializado em Porto Velho no período 1984-89, capturado na área de influência doe garimpos de ouro no rio Madeira, entre Guajará-Mirim (Rondônia) e Humaitá (Amazonas). A produção pesqueira é discutida de acordo com os hábitos alimentares e migratórios das espécies comercialmente relevantes. Constatou-se que do total capturado para pesca comercial, entre 39.3% (em 84) e 49.5% (em 89) são frutívoras, sendo que o Tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum) apresenta o maior volume de captura; entre 22.9% (em 09) e 32.5% (em 86) são detritívoras, sendo o Curimatá (Prochilodus nigricans) a mais significativa. Apenas entre 10.7% (em 85) e 15.1% (em 84) são espécies carnívoras (Tucunaré - Cichia sp e Dourada - Brachyplatystoma flavicans). São feitos alguns comentários sobre os fatores ecológicos que possivelmente interferem na acumulação do mercúrio nas cadeias alimentares.

A separação do Cálcio de Estroncio mediante o emprego de Resina Trocadora de Íons e de Estroncio Radioativo Sr-89

O presente trabalho relata os dados obtidos na separação do estrôncio do cálcio, pelo uso de uma solução de NH4- EDTA, com pH entre os valores 4,8 e 5,3, passando através de uma coluna de resina trocadora de cátions. Assim, 200 ml de uma solução a 2,5% de NH4- EDTA com pH = 4,8 e contendo 0,36 mg de estrôncio e 199,2 mg de cálcio (o que dá uma relação de 1 de Sr para 553 de Ca) foram passados através de uma coluna de 25 a 28 ml de resina trocadora de cátions Amberlite IR - 120 (H+) prèviamente preparada. O estrôncio ficou retido na coluna e o cálcio continuou na solução que passou. Depois de passar solução de NH4- EDTA com pH 5,3 e solução de HCl de 0,25 a 0,75 N, o estrôncio foi eluido com solução 3N de HCl. Como empregou-se estrôncio radioativo Sr-89, esse ion foi determinado por radiometria, para se conhecer a eficiência da separação. O cálcio foi determinado pelo método permanganométrico em solução de NH4- EDTA após a eliminação do agente quelante. Os dados obtidos mostraram que houve uma separação muito eficiente, indicada pela porcentagem de recuperação do estrôncio qu efoi de 97,7, 97,0 e 98,6% ao passo que a recuperação do cálcio foi de 100,0, 99,9 e 99,7%.

Garnet growth in the Nufenen Pass area (Swiss Alps)

Abstract : Textural division of a mineral in pyramids, with their apices located at the centre of the mineral and their bases corresponding to the mineral faces is called textural sector zoning. Textural sector zoning is observed in many metamorphic minerals like andalousite and garnet. Garnets found in the graphite rich black shales of the Mesozoic cover of the Gotthard Massif display textural sector zoning. The morphology of this sector zoning is not the same in different types of black shales observed in the Nufenen pass area. Garnets in foliated black shales display a well developed sector zoning while garnets found in cm-scale layered black shales display well developed sectors in the direction of the schistosity plane. This sector zoning is always associated with up to 30μm sized birefringent lamellae emanating radial from the sector boundaries. They alternate with isotrope lamellae. The garnet forming reaction was determined using singular value decomposition approach and results compared to thermodynamic calculations. It is of the form chl + mu + cc + cld = bt + fds + ank + gt + czo and is similar in both layered and foliated black shales. The calculated X(O) is close to 0.36 and does not significantly vary during the metamorphic history of the rock. This corresponds to X CO2, X CH4, and X H2O BSE imaging of garnets on oriented-cuts revealed that the orientation of the lamellae found within the sectors is controlled by crystallography. BSE imaging and electron microprobe analysis revealed that these lamellae are calcium rich compared to the isotropic lamellae. The addition of Ca to an almandine rich garnet causes a small distortion of the X site and potentially, ordering. Ordered and disordered garnet might have very similar free energies for this composition. Hence, two garnets with different composition can be precipitated with minor overstepping of the reaction. It is enough that continued nucleation of a new garnet layer slightly prefers the same structure to assure a fiber-like growth of both garnet compositions side by side. This hypothesis is in agreement with the thermodynamic properties of the garnet solid solution described in the literature and could explain the textures observed in garnets with these compositions. To understand the differences in sector zoning morphology, and crystal growth kinetics, crystal size distribution were determined in several samples using 2D spatial analysis of slab surfaces. The same nucleation rate law was chosen for all cases. Different growth rate law for non-layered black shales and layered black shales were used. Garnet in layered black shales grew according to a growth rate law of the form R=kt ½. The transport of nutrient is the limiting factor. Transport will occur preferentially on the schistosity planes. The shapes of the garnets in such rocks are therefore ovoid with the longest axis parallel to the schistosity planes. Sector zoning is less developed with sectors present only parallel to the schistosity planes. Garnet in non-layered blackshales grew according to a growth rate law of the form R=kt. The limiting factor is the attachment at the surface of the garnet. Garnets in these rocks will display a well developed sector zoning in all directions. The growth rate law is thus influenced by the texture of the rock. It favours or hinders the transport of nutrient to the mineral surface. Résumé : La zonation sectorielle texturale consiste en la division d'un cristal en pyramides dont les sommets sont localisés au centre du minéral. La base de ces pyramides correspond aux faces du minéral. Ce type de zonation est fréquemment observé dans les minéraux métamorphiques tels que l'andalousite ou le grenat. Les grenats présents dans les marnes riches en graphites de la couverture Mésozoïque du Massif du Gotthard présent une zonation sectorielle texturale. La morphologie de cette zonation n'est pas la même dans les marnes litées et dans les marnes foliées. Les grenats des marnes foliées montrent des secteurs bien développés dans 3 directions. Les grenats des marnes litées montrent des secteurs développés uniquement dans la direction des plans de schistosité. Cette zonation sectorielle est toujours associée à des lamelles biréfringentes de quelques microns de large qui partent de la limite des secteurs et qui sont perpendiculaires aux faces du grenat. Ces lamelles alternent avec des lamelles isotropes. La réaction de formation du grenat a été déterminée par calcul matriciel et thermodynamique. La réaction est de la forme chl + mu + cc + cld= bt + fds + ank + gt + czo. Elle est similaire dans les roches litées et dans les roches foliées. L'évaluation des conditions fluides montrent que le X(O) est proche de 0.36 et ne change pas de façon significative durant l'histoire métamorphique de la roche. Des images BSE sur des coupes orientées ont révélé que l'orientation de lamelles biréfringentes est contrôlée parla crystallographie. La comparaison des analyses à la microsonde électronique et des images BSE révèle également que les lamelles biréfringentes sont plus riches en calcium que les lamelles isotropes. L'addition de calcium va déformer légèrement le site X et ainsi créer un ordre sur ce site. L'énergie interne d'un grenat ordré et d'un grenat désordonné sont suffisamment proches pour qu'un léger dépassement de l'énergie de la réaction de formation permette la coexistence des 2 types de grenat dans le même minéral. La formation de lamelles est expliquée par le fait qu'un grenat préférera la même structure. Ces observations sont en accord avec la thermodynamique des solutions solides du grenat et permet d'expliquer les structures similaires observées dans des grenats provenant de lithologies différentes. Une étude de la distribution des tailles des grenats et une modélisation de la croissance a permis de mettre en évidence 2 mécanismes de croissance différents suivant la texture de la roche. Dans les 2 cas, la loi de nucléation est la même. Dans les roches litées, la loi de croissance est de forme R=kt½. Le transport des nutriments est le facteur limitant. Ce transport a lieu préférentiellement dans la direction des niveaux de schistosité. Les grenats ont une forme légèrement allongée car la croissance des secteurs est facilitée sur les niveaux de schistosité. La croissance des grenats dans les roches foliées suit une loi de croissance de la forme R=kt. Les seuls facteurs limitant la croissance sont les processus d'attachement à la surface du grenat. La loi de croissance de ces grenats est donc contrainte par la texture de la roche. Cela se marque par des différences dans la morphologie de la zonation sectorielle.