Discurso y política sobre procesos de Desarme, Desmovilización y Reintegración en Bogotá: La representación de los desmovilizados en el diario El Tiempo (2005 - 2010)

Los procesos de Desarme, Desmovilización y Reintegración (DDR) han sido tema central en la agenda pública y la forma en que los medios nos presentan a los diferentes protagonistas del conflicto, nos ha acercado a ellos y a la realidad de ese fenómeno desde una mirada en particular. En esta monografía se analiza la representación discursiva construida por el diario El Tiempo sobre procesos de DDR y sus actores protagónicos, los desmovilizados, en la ciudad de Bogotá, entre 2005 y 2010; a lo largo del texto se reflexiona sobre la influencia que puede tener el discurso de los medios de comunicación en la manera que la sociedad podría ver y responder a ese grupo social que busca reintegrarse a la vida civil. El trabajo se realiza a través de un análisis del discurso, en este caso, del discurso periodístico emitido por el diario El Tiempo y se abordan elementos de la teoría del pánico moral. La llegada constante y creciente de desmovilizados a la capital del país conllevó a que el trato que debía dársele a la situación hiciera parte de diferentes discursos políticos y mediáticos; por tanto, el discurso del diario se contrasta con la política local de atención a desmovilizados, específicamente con el "Programa de Atención al Proceso de Desmovilización y Reintegración en Bogotá (PAPDRB)", a fin de diferenciar el tratamiento que le dieron al fenómeno.

Rebellion, repression and welfare

I develop a dynamic model of social conflict whereby manifest grievances of the poor generate the incentive of taking over political power violently. Rebellion can be an equilibrium outcome depending on the level of preexisting inequality between the poor and the ruling elite, the relative military capabilities of the two groups and the destructiveness of conflict. Once a technology of repression is introduced, widespread fear reduces the parameter space for which rebellion is an equilibrium outcome. However, I show that repression driven peace comes at a cost as it produces a welfare loss to society.

Don't make war, make elections : Franchise extension and violence in XIXth-century Colombia

This paper studies the effect of strengthening democracy, as captured by an increase in voting rights, on the incidence of violent civil conflict in nineteenth-century Colombia. Empirically studying the relationship between democracy and conflict is challenging, not only because of conceptual problems in defining and measuring democracy, but also because political institutions and violence are jointly determined. We take advantage of an experiment of history to examine the impact of one simple, measurable dimension of democracy (the size of the franchise) on con- flict, while at the same time attempting to overcome the identification problem. In 1853, Colombia established universal male suffrage. Using a simple difference-indifferences specification at the municipal level, we find that municipalities where more voters were enfranchised relative to their population experienced fewer violent political battles while the reform was in effect. The results are robust to including a number of additional controls. Moreover, we investigate the potential mechanisms driving the results. In particular, we look at which components of the proportion of new voters in 1853 explain the results, and we examine if results are stronger in places with more political competition and state capacity. We interpret our findings as suggesting that violence in nineteenth-century Colombia was a technology for political elites to compete for the rents from power, and that democracy constituted an alternative way to compete which substituted violence.

Why peace processes fail or move forward? Negotiations in Colombia with FARC and AUC (1998-2003)

Este trabajo examina la teoría sobre guerras civiles y resolución de conflictos con el fin de contestar la pregunta: ¿por qué fracasan o progresan los procesos de paz? Se miraron los procesos de paz en Colombia en los últimos cinco años cuando comenzó y fracasó el proceso de paz con las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, FARC y comenzaron con las Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia, AUC. La teoría revela la relevancia de factores económicos, políticos, participación externa y militares para explicar por que fallan o prosperan los procesos de paz. Por su parte, el fracaso de las negociaciones con las FARC puede explicarse por razones de estrategia militar, el rol de la violencia durante la negociación y la falta de participación internacional. De otro lado, evitando todos los puntos sensibles de la negociación inicial, las AUC ganaron apoyo de la opinión publica y la confianza del gobierno para iniciar los diálogos. De esta forma, tenemos dos procesos recientes en Colombia para analizar: uno que fallo y el otro que esta progresando. El análisis de estos procesos puede ayudarnos a contestar la pregunta inicial de este trabajo.

Análisis del conflicto en la región de Darfur en Sudán a partir del modelo teórico de Paul Collier, periodo 2003 a 2010.

Esta investigación evalúa el modelo propuesto por el profesor Paul Collier a propósito del surgimiento de las guerras civiles, mediante su aplicación al caso del conflicto en la región de Darfur en Sudán, África. Este estudio tiene por propósito evidenciar las posibilidades explicativas del modelo de Collier, de naturaleza economicista, partiendo de la premisa de que las variables contenidas en el cuerpo teórico se pueden evidenciar en el caso del conflicto en Darfur. Se lleva a cabo una aproximación el concepto de nuevas guerras mediante el abordaje teórico de autores suscritos a esta corriente, Stathis N. Kalyvas, Mary Kaldor y Herfried Münkler. Analizando las variables e indicadores, se expone en su totalidad el modelo y tras su aplicación al caso del conflicto en Darfur, se avanza hacia el resultado de la investigación que permite identificar las falencias en el planteamiento de las premisas y conclusiones del modelo, estableciendo sus limitaciones explicativas de las nuevas guerras.

La importancia del proceso de desarme desmovilización y reinserción (DDR) para las mujeres soldado de sierra leona durante el post-conflicto

El presente estudio de caso tiene como objetivo analizar los procesos de Desarme, Desmovilización y Reintegración para las mujeres excombatientes en Sierra leona, desarrollados por los mecanismos internacionales, tales como la ONU y su misión en este país UNAMSIL, teniendo en cuenta que la Reintegración es el momento más importante para lograr el mantenimiento de la paz que se firmo en el Acuerdo de Lomé. Este trabajo muestra la importancia de una intervención apropiada de acuerdo a las necesidades de cada Estado y teniendo en cuenta las características del conflicto y sus minorías participativas.

Diatom abundance in middle-to-late Pleistocene sediments of IODP Site 303-U1304

We examined diatom assemblages in a series of remarkable laminated diatomaceous ooze (LDO) horizons in the marine sediments from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1304 to reconstruct the middle-to-late Pleistocene paleoceanographic evolution of the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Four confirmed diatom biohorizons combined with calcareous nannofossil and paleomagnetic stratigraphies established the chronological framework for the material. The planktonic, araphid, needle-like species Thalassiothrix longissima was the greatest contributor to the LDO facies. From the results of a principal component analysis using the percent abundances of 65 significant (p = 5%) diatom taxa, except for Tx. longissima, which was extremely dominant in almost all horizons observed, we identified two principal component (PC) axes. Taxa probably associated with the stratigraphic distribution of the major zonal marker Neodenticula seminae (ranging from 1.26 to 0.84 Ma in this ocean) loaded on PC1 with a high value. PC2 was related to the ocean surface temperature. The stratigraphic variability of the PC2 score indicated that switching between warm- and cold-water assemblages occurred concurrently with LDO deposition (or extreme Tx. longissima dominance) episodes in several horizons (particularly after 0.84 Ma), suggesting that the Subarctic Convergence (SAC) oceanic front passed over Site U1304 during Pleistocene glacial/interglacial cycles. Our floral evidence supports the model of nearly monospecific LDO formation caused by the enhanced physical accumulation of particular diatoms such as Tx. longissima. On the other hand, Nd. seminae, which probably contributes to spring phytoplankton blooms in the modern ocean, was present only between 1.26 and 0.84 Ma in this area. Thus, we infer that the main contributor of export flux in the regional annual primary production cycle would have shifted drastically from one of a spring phytoplankton bloom leader (Nd. seminae) to minor but mass dump assemblages (Tx. longissima etc.) in the mid-Pleistocene.

(Table 1) Strontium concentration and isotope ratios of carbonates from DSDP Holes 69-504B as well as 83-504B and fish debris samples from Indian and Pacific Ocean sediments

Recent revisions of the geological time scale by Kent and Gradstein (in press) suggest that, on the average, Cretaceous magnetic anomalies are approximately 10 m.y. older than in Larson and Hilde's (1975) previous time scale. These revised basement ages change estimates for the duration of alteration in the ocean crust, based on the difference between secondary-mineral isochron ages and magnetic isochron-crustal ages, from 3 to approximately 13 m.y. In addition to the revised time scale, Burke et al.'s (1982) new data on the temporal variation of 87Sr/86Sr in seawater allow a better understanding of the timing of alteration and more realistic determinations of water/rock ratios during seawater-basalt interaction. Carbonates from all DSDP sites which reached Layer 2 of Atlantic crust (Sites 105, 332, 417, and 418) are deposited within 10-15 m.y. of crustal formation from solutions with 87Sr/86Sr ratios identical to unaltered or contemporaneous seawater. Comparisons of the revised seawater curve with the 87Sr/86Sr of basement carbonates is consistent with a duration of approximately 10-15 m.y. for alteration in the ocean crust. Our preliminary Sr and 87Sr/86Sr data for carbonates from Hole 504B, on 5.9-m.y.-old crust south of the Costa Rica Rift, suggest that hydrous solutions from which carbonates precipitated contained substantial amounts of basaltic Sr. For this reason, carbonate 87Sr/86Sr cannot be used to estimate the duration of alteration at this site. A basalt-dominated alteration environment at Hole 504B is consistent with heat-flow evidence which indicates rapid sediment burial of crust at the Costa Rica Rift, sealing it from access by seawater and resulting in unusually low water/rock ratios during alteration.

Quality of cause-of-death reporting using ICD-10 drowning codes : a descriptive study of 69 countries

Background: The systematic collection of high-quality mortality data is a prerequisite in designing relevant drowning prevention programmes. This descriptive study aimed to assess the quality (i.e., level of specificity) of cause-of-death reporting using ICD-10 drowning codes across 69 countries.---------- Methods: World Health Organization (WHO) mortality data were extracted for analysis. The proportion of unintentional drowning deaths coded as unspecified at the 3-character level (ICD-10 code W74) and for which the place of occurrence was unspecified at the 4th character (.9) were calculated for each country as indicators of the quality of cause-of-death reporting.---------- Results: In 32 of the 69 countries studied, the percentage of cases of unintentional drowning coded as unspecified at the 3-character level exceeded 50%, and in 19 countries, this percentage exceeded 80%; in contrast, the percentage was lower than 10% in only 10 countries. In 21 of the 56 countries that report 4-character codes, the percentage of unintentional drowning deaths for which the place of occurrence was unspecified at the 4th character exceeded 50%, and in 15 countries, exceeded 90%; in only 14 countries was this percentage lower than 10%.---------- Conclusion: Despite the introduction of more specific subcategories for drowning in the ICD-10, many countries were found to be failing to report sufficiently specific codes in drowning mortality data submitted to the WHO.