Adaptive search and information updating in sequential mate choice

Classical treatments of problems of sequential mate choice assume that the distribution of the quality of potential mates is known a priori. This assumption, made for analytical purposes, may seem unrealistic, opposing empirical data as well as evolutionary arguments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we develop a model that includes the possibility for searching individuals to learn about the distribution and in particular to update mean and variance during the search. In a constant environment, a priori knowledge of the parameter values brings strong benefits in both time needed to make a decision and average value of mate obtained. Knowing the variance yields more benefits than knowing the mean, and benefits increase with variance. However, the costs of learning become progressively lower as more time is available for choice. When parameter values differ between demes and/or searching periods, a strategy relying on fixed a priori information might lead to erroneous decisions, which confers advantages on the learning strategy. However, time for choice plays an important role as well: if a decision must be made rapidly, a fixed strategy may do better even when the fixed image does not coincide with the local parameter values. These results help in delineating the ecological-behavior context in which learning strategies may spread.

Decoding stimulus-related information from single-trial EEG responses based on voltage topographies

Neuroimaging studies typically compare experimental conditions using average brain responses, thereby overlooking the stimulus-related information conveyed by distributed spatio-temporal patterns of single-trial responses. Here, we take advantage of this rich information at a single-trial level to decode stimulus-related signals in two event-related potential (ERP) studies. Our method models the statistical distribution of the voltage topographies with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which reduces the dataset to a number of representative voltage topographies. The degree of presence of these topographies across trials at specific latencies is then used to classify experimental conditions. We tested the algorithm using a cross-validation procedure in two independent EEG datasets. In the first ERP study, we classified left- versus right-hemifield checkerboard stimuli for upper and lower visual hemifields. In a second ERP study, when functional differences cannot be assumed, we classified initial versus repeated presentations of visual objects. With minimal a priori information, the GMM model provides neurophysiologically interpretable features - vis à vis voltage topographies - as well as dynamic information about brain function. This method can in principle be applied to any ERP dataset testing the functional relevance of specific time periods for stimulus processing, the predictability of subject's behavior and cognitive states, and the discrimination between healthy and clinical populations.

On the design of opportunistic cooperative transmission strategies with partial CSI information

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of channel state information on the design of cooperative transmission protocols. This is motivated by the fact that the performance gain achieved by cooperative diversity comes at the price of the extra bandwidth resource consumption. Several opportunistic relaying strategies are developed to fully utilize the different types of a priori channel information. The information-theoretic measures such as outage probability and diversity-multiplexing tradeoff are developed for the proposed protocols. The analytical and numerical results demonstrate that the use of such a priori information increases the spectral efficiency of cooperative diversity, especially at low signal-to-noise ratio.

Influência da informação à priori na escolha de modelos para avaliação genética de suínos

Programas de melhoramento são atividades que se desenvolvem durante anos e, por isso, devem ser flexíveis ao ajuste às novas situações criadas por mudanças nas tendências de mercado, na situação econômica e aquelas causadas por aumento do volume e qualidade dos dados e, também, por novas técnicas propostas pela comunidade científica. O ajuste a essas últimas deve ser feito, principalmente, por meio da substituição e escolha do modelo mais adequado para a descrição do fenômeno, em um determinado cenário. Os dados de ganho de peso médio diário, de um programa de melhoramento de suínos, envolvendo as raças Duroc, Landrace e Large White, foram analisados por meio da teoria bayesiana, por meio de dois modelos candidatos. Foram simulados três níveis de informação à priori: informativa, pouco informativa e não informativa. O comportamento das curvas das distribuições à posteriori e as respectivas estimativas associadas a cada nível de informação à priori foram analisadas e comparadas. Os resultados indicam que no modelo mais simples, as amostras das três raças são suficientes para produzir estimativas que não são alteradas pela informação à priori. Com relação ao mais parametrizado, as estimativas, para a raça Duroc, são alteradas pelo conhecimento prévio e, nesse caso, deve se buscar a melhor representação possível da distribuição à priori para obtenção de estimativas que são mais adequadas, dado o estado de conhecimento atual do melhorista.

Informação a priori na inversão de dados magnetotelúricos

Esta Tese apresenta dois estudos aplicados à inversão de dados magnetotelúricos. No primeiro deles, os parâmetros obtidos na inversão são as dimensões da malha de parametrização da subsuperfície, sendo conhecida, a priori, a resistividade de uma heterogeneidade e a do seu meio envolvente; no outro estudo, é abordado o uso de operadores de derivadas de ordem maior do que um com a finalidade de estabilizar o problema inverso. No primeiro estudo, os resultados podem ser considerados satisfatórios somente se a informação sobre as resistividades tem erro menor do que 20%. No segundo estudo, os resultados demonstram que o uso de operadores de ordem maior do que um podem ser mais eficazes do que o uso convencional do operador de primeira derivada, pois além de estabilizarem o problema inverso, esses operadores contribuem para melhorar a resolução das heterogeneidades de resistividade da subsuperfície. Ambos os estudos são inéditos, pois a prática de inversão de dados magnetotelúricos consiste de obter como resultado do problema inverso a resistividade dos prismas de uma malha de parametrização de dimensões fixas, usando como estabilizador o operador de primeira derivada. Os modelos usados nos estudos são bidimensionais e representam uma subsuperfície com uma e duas heterogeneidades de forma prismática envolvidas por ambiente homogêneo. O desempenho das técnicas foi testado com dados sintéticos com e sem ruído gaussiano, bem como dados reais do perfil COPROD2. Durante o trabalho, são, ainda, descritas as técnicas de inversão denominadas creeping e jumping e feita uma comparação e avaliação sobre elas. Mostra-se aqui que, ao contrário do que afirmam muitos pesquisadores, a inclusão de informação a priori sore os parâmetros pode ser feita na técnica do creeping com a mesma facilidade com que é feita na técnica do jumping.

Automatic estimation of noise parameters in Fourier-domain optical coherence tomography cross sectional images using statistical information

We present an application and sample independent method for the automatic discrimination of noise and signal in optical coherence tomography Bscans. The proposed algorithm models the observed noise probabilistically and allows for a dynamic determination of image noise parameters and the choice of appropriate image rendering parameters. This overcomes the observer variability and the need for a priori information about the content of sample images, both of which are challenging to estimate systematically with current systems. As such, our approach has the advantage of automatically determining crucial parameters for evaluating rendered image quality in a systematic and task independent way. We tested our algorithm on data from four different biological and nonbiological samples (index finger, lemon slices, sticky tape, and detector cards) acquired with three different experimental spectral domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) measurement systems including a swept source OCT. The results are compared to parameters determined manually by four experienced OCT users. Overall, our algorithm works reliably regardless of which system and sample are used and estimates noise parameters in all cases within the confidence interval of those found by observers.

Detection of Auditory Cortex Activity by fMRI Using a Dependent Component Analysis

Functional MRI (fMRI) data often have low signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) and are contaminated by strong interference from other physiological sources. A promising tool for extracting signals, even under low SNR conditions, is blind source separation (BSS), or independent component analysis (ICA). BSS is based on the assumption that the detected signals are a mixture of a number of independent source signals that are linearly combined via an unknown mixing matrix. BSS seeks to determine the mixing matrix to recover the source signals based on principles of statistical independence. In most cases, extraction of all sources is unnecessary; instead, a priori information can be applied to extract only the signal of interest. Herein we propose an algorithm based on a variation of ICA, called Dependent Component Analysis (DCA), where the signal of interest is extracted using a time delay obtained from an autocorrelation analysis. We applied such method to inspect functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data, aiming to find the hemodynamic response that follows neuronal activation from an auditory stimulation, in human subjects. The method localized a significant signal modulation in cortical regions corresponding to the primary auditory cortex. The results obtained by DCA were also compared to those of the General Linear Model (GLM), which is the most widely used method to analyze fMRI datasets.

Avaliação do stock de Abalones: uma pesca sustentável

Jornadas "Ciência nos Açores – que futuro? Tema Ciências Naturais e Ambiente", Ponta Delgada, 7-8 de Junho de 2013.

Simple Kinematic Design for Evading the Forced Oscillation of a Car-Wheel Suspension System

An adaptive control damping the forced vibration of a car while passing along a bumpy road is investigated. It is based on a simple kinematic description of the desired behavior of the damped system. A modified PID controller containing an approximation of Caputo’s fractional derivative suppresses the high-frequency components related to the bumps and dips, while the low frequency part of passing hills/valleys are strictly traced. Neither a complete dynamic model of the car nor ’a priori’ information on the surface of the road is needed. The adaptive control realizes this kinematic design in spite of the existence of dynamically coupled, excitable internal degrees of freedom. The method is investigated via Scicos-based simulation in the case of a paradigm. It was found that both adaptivity and fractional order derivatives are essential parts of the control that can keep the vibration of the load at bay without directly controlling its motion.

Efficacy of prescribed injectable diacetylmorphine in the Andalusian trial: Bayesian analysis of responders and non-responders according to a multi domain outcome index.

BACKGROUND The objective of this research was to evaluate data from a randomized clinical trial that tested injectable diacetylmorphine (DAM) and oral methadone (MMT) for substitution treatment, using a multi-domain dichotomous index, with a Bayesian approach. METHODS Sixty two long-term, socially-excluded heroin injectors, not benefiting from available treatments were randomized to receive either DAM or MMT for 9 months in Granada, Spain. Completers were 44 and data at the end of the study period was obtained for 50. Participants were determined to be responders or non responders using a multi-domain outcome index accounting for their physical and mental health and psychosocial integration, used in a previous trial. Data was analyzed with Bayesian methods, using information from a similar study conducted in The Netherlands to select a priori distributions. On adding the data from the present study to update the a priori information, the distribution of the difference in response rates were obtained and used to build credibility intervals and relevant probability computations. RESULTS In the experimental group (n = 27), the rate of responders to treatment was 70.4% (95% CI 53.287.6), and in the control group (n = 23), it was 34.8% (95% CI 15.354.3). The probability of success in the experimental group using the a posteriori distributions was higher after a proper sensitivity analysis. Almost the whole distribution of the rates difference (the one for diacetylmorphine minus methadone) was located to the right of the zero, indicating the superiority of the experimental treatment. CONCLUSION The present analysis suggests a clinical superiority of injectable diacetylmorphine compared to oral methadone in the treatment of severely affected heroin injectors not benefiting sufficiently from the available treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52023186.

Time-lapse and probabilistic inversion strategies for plane-wave electromagnetic data.

L'utilisation efficace des systèmes géothermaux, la séquestration du CO2 pour limiter le changement climatique et la prévention de l'intrusion d'eau salée dans les aquifères costaux ne sont que quelques exemples qui démontrent notre besoin en technologies nouvelles pour suivre l'évolution des processus souterrains à partir de la surface. Un défi majeur est d'assurer la caractérisation et l'optimisation des performances de ces technologies à différentes échelles spatiales et temporelles. Les méthodes électromagnétiques (EM) d'ondes planes sont sensibles à la conductivité électrique du sous-sol et, par conséquent, à la conductivité électrique des fluides saturant la roche, à la présence de fractures connectées, à la température et aux matériaux géologiques. Ces méthodes sont régies par des équations valides sur de larges gammes de fréquences, permettant détudier de manières analogues des processus allant de quelques mètres sous la surface jusqu'à plusieurs kilomètres de profondeur. Néanmoins, ces méthodes sont soumises à une perte de résolution avec la profondeur à cause des propriétés diffusives du champ électromagnétique. Pour cette raison, l'estimation des modèles du sous-sol par ces méthodes doit prendre en compte des informations a priori afin de contraindre les modèles autant que possible et de permettre la quantification des incertitudes de ces modèles de façon appropriée. Dans la présente thèse, je développe des approches permettant la caractérisation statique et dynamique du sous-sol à l'aide d'ondes EM planes. Dans une première partie, je présente une approche déterministe permettant de réaliser des inversions répétées dans le temps (time-lapse) de données d'ondes EM planes en deux dimensions. Cette stratégie est basée sur l'incorporation dans l'algorithme d'informations a priori en fonction des changements du modèle de conductivité électrique attendus. Ceci est réalisé en intégrant une régularisation stochastique et des contraintes flexibles par rapport à la gamme des changements attendus en utilisant les multiplicateurs de Lagrange. J'utilise des normes différentes de la norme l2 pour contraindre la structure du modèle et obtenir des transitions abruptes entre les régions du model qui subissent des changements dans le temps et celles qui n'en subissent pas. Aussi, j'incorpore une stratégie afin d'éliminer les erreurs systématiques de données time-lapse. Ce travail a mis en évidence l'amélioration de la caractérisation des changements temporels par rapport aux approches classiques qui réalisent des inversions indépendantes à chaque pas de temps et comparent les modèles. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse, j'adopte un formalisme bayésien et je teste la possibilité de quantifier les incertitudes sur les paramètres du modèle dans l'inversion d'ondes EM planes. Pour ce faire, je présente une stratégie d'inversion probabiliste basée sur des pixels à deux dimensions pour des inversions de données d'ondes EM planes et de tomographies de résistivité électrique (ERT) séparées et jointes. Je compare les incertitudes des paramètres du modèle en considérant différents types d'information a priori sur la structure du modèle et différentes fonctions de vraisemblance pour décrire les erreurs sur les données. Les résultats indiquent que la régularisation du modèle est nécessaire lorsqu'on a à faire à un large nombre de paramètres car cela permet d'accélérer la convergence des chaînes et d'obtenir des modèles plus réalistes. Cependent, ces contraintes mènent à des incertitudes d'estimations plus faibles, ce qui implique des distributions a posteriori qui ne contiennent pas le vrai modèledans les régions ou` la méthode présente une sensibilité limitée. Cette situation peut être améliorée en combinant des méthodes d'ondes EM planes avec d'autres méthodes complémentaires telles que l'ERT. De plus, je montre que le poids de régularisation des paramètres et l'écart-type des erreurs sur les données peuvent être retrouvés par une inversion probabiliste. Finalement, j'évalue la possibilité de caractériser une distribution tridimensionnelle d'un panache de traceur salin injecté dans le sous-sol en réalisant une inversion probabiliste time-lapse tridimensionnelle d'ondes EM planes. Etant donné que les inversions probabilistes sont très coûteuses en temps de calcul lorsque l'espace des paramètres présente une grande dimension, je propose une stratégie de réduction du modèle ou` les coefficients de décomposition des moments de Legendre du panache de traceur injecté ainsi que sa position sont estimés. Pour ce faire, un modèle de résistivité de base est nécessaire. Il peut être obtenu avant l'expérience time-lapse. Un test synthétique montre que la méthodologie marche bien quand le modèle de résistivité de base est caractérisé correctement. Cette méthodologie est aussi appliquée à un test de trac¸age par injection d'une solution saline et d'acides réalisé dans un système géothermal en Australie, puis comparée à une inversion time-lapse tridimensionnelle réalisée selon une approche déterministe. L'inversion probabiliste permet de mieux contraindre le panache du traceur salin gr^ace à la grande quantité d'informations a priori incluse dans l'algorithme. Néanmoins, les changements de conductivités nécessaires pour expliquer les changements observés dans les données sont plus grands que ce qu'expliquent notre connaissance actuelle des phénomenès physiques. Ce problème peut être lié à la qualité limitée du modèle de résistivité de base utilisé, indiquant ainsi que des efforts plus grands devront être fournis dans le futur pour obtenir des modèles de base de bonne qualité avant de réaliser des expériences dynamiques. Les études décrites dans cette thèse montrent que les méthodes d'ondes EM planes sont très utiles pour caractériser et suivre les variations temporelles du sous-sol sur de larges échelles. Les présentes approches améliorent l'évaluation des modèles obtenus, autant en termes d'incorporation d'informations a priori, qu'en termes de quantification d'incertitudes a posteriori. De plus, les stratégies développées peuvent être appliquées à d'autres méthodes géophysiques, et offrent une grande flexibilité pour l'incorporation d'informations additionnelles lorsqu'elles sont disponibles. -- The efficient use of geothermal systems, the sequestration of CO2 to mitigate climate change, and the prevention of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers are only some examples that demonstrate the need for novel technologies to monitor subsurface processes from the surface. A main challenge is to assure optimal performance of such technologies at different temporal and spatial scales. Plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) methods are sensitive to subsurface electrical conductivity and consequently to fluid conductivity, fracture connectivity, temperature, and rock mineralogy. These methods have governing equations that are the same over a large range of frequencies, thus allowing to study in an analogous manner processes on scales ranging from few meters close to the surface down to several hundreds of kilometers depth. Unfortunately, they suffer from a significant resolution loss with depth due to the diffusive nature of the electromagnetic fields. Therefore, estimations of subsurface models that use these methods should incorporate a priori information to better constrain the models, and provide appropriate measures of model uncertainty. During my thesis, I have developed approaches to improve the static and dynamic characterization of the subsurface with plane-wave EM methods. In the first part of this thesis, I present a two-dimensional deterministic approach to perform time-lapse inversion of plane-wave EM data. The strategy is based on the incorporation of prior information into the inversion algorithm regarding the expected temporal changes in electrical conductivity. This is done by incorporating a flexible stochastic regularization and constraints regarding the expected ranges of the changes by using Lagrange multipliers. I use non-l2 norms to penalize the model update in order to obtain sharp transitions between regions that experience temporal changes and regions that do not. I also incorporate a time-lapse differencing strategy to remove systematic errors in the time-lapse inversion. This work presents improvements in the characterization of temporal changes with respect to the classical approach of performing separate inversions and computing differences between the models. In the second part of this thesis, I adopt a Bayesian framework and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations to quantify model parameter uncertainty in plane-wave EM inversion. For this purpose, I present a two-dimensional pixel-based probabilistic inversion strategy for separate and joint inversions of plane-wave EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. I compare the uncertainties of the model parameters when considering different types of prior information on the model structure and different likelihood functions to describe the data errors. The results indicate that model regularization is necessary when dealing with a large number of model parameters because it helps to accelerate the convergence of the chains and leads to more realistic models. These constraints also lead to smaller uncertainty estimates, which imply posterior distributions that do not include the true underlying model in regions where the method has limited sensitivity. This situation can be improved by combining planewave EM methods with complimentary geophysical methods such as ERT. In addition, I show that an appropriate regularization weight and the standard deviation of the data errors can be retrieved by the MCMC inversion. Finally, I evaluate the possibility of characterizing the three-dimensional distribution of an injected water plume by performing three-dimensional time-lapse MCMC inversion of planewave EM data. Since MCMC inversion involves a significant computational burden in high parameter dimensions, I propose a model reduction strategy where the coefficients of a Legendre moment decomposition of the injected water plume and its location are estimated. For this purpose, a base resistivity model is needed which is obtained prior to the time-lapse experiment. A synthetic test shows that the methodology works well when the base resistivity model is correctly characterized. The methodology is also applied to an injection experiment performed in a geothermal system in Australia, and compared to a three-dimensional time-lapse inversion performed within a deterministic framework. The MCMC inversion better constrains the water plumes due to the larger amount of prior information that is included in the algorithm. The conductivity changes needed to explain the time-lapse data are much larger than what is physically possible based on present day understandings. This issue may be related to the base resistivity model used, therefore indicating that more efforts should be given to obtain high-quality base models prior to dynamic experiments. The studies described herein give clear evidence that plane-wave EM methods are useful to characterize and monitor the subsurface at a wide range of scales. The presented approaches contribute to an improved appraisal of the obtained models, both in terms of the incorporation of prior information in the algorithms and the posterior uncertainty quantification. In addition, the developed strategies can be applied to other geophysical methods, and offer great flexibility to incorporate additional information when available.

Validity of the acoustic approximation in full-waveform seismic crosshole tomography

Acoustic waveform inversions are an increasingly popular tool for extracting subsurface information from seismic data. They are computationally much more efficient than elastic inversions. Naturally, an inherent disadvantage is that any elastic effects present in the recorded data are ignored in acoustic inversions. We investigate the extent to which elastic effects influence seismic crosshole data. Our numerical modeling studies reveal that in the presence of high contrast interfaces, at which P-to-S conversions occur, elastic effects can dominate the seismic sections, even for experiments involving pressure sources and pressure receivers. Comparisons of waveform inversion results using a purely acoustic algorithm on synthetic data that is either acoustic or elastic, show that subsurface models comprising small low-to-medium contrast (?30%) structures can be successfully resolved in the acoustic approximation. However, in the presence of extended high-contrast anomalous bodies, P-to-S-conversions may substantially degrade the quality of the tomographic images. In particular, extended low-velocity zones are difficult to image. Likewise, relatively small low-velocity features are unresolved, even when advanced a priori information is included. One option for mitigating elastic effects is data windowing, which suppresses later arriving seismic arrivals, such as shear waves. Our tests of this approach found it to be inappropriate because elastic effects are also included in earlier arriving wavetrains. Furthermore, data windowing removes later arriving P-wave phases that may provide critical constraints on the tomograms. Finally, we investigated the extent to which acoustic inversions of elastic data are useful for time-lapse analyses of high contrast engineered structures, for which accurate reconstruction of the subsurface structure is not as critical as imaging differential changes between sequential experiments. Based on a realistic scenario for monitoring a radioactive waste repository, we demonstrated that acoustic inversions of elastic data yield substantial distortions of the tomograms and also unreliable information on trends in the velocity changes.

Determining feature relevance for the grouping of motor unit action potentials through generative topographic mapping

The study of motor unit action potential (MUAP) activity from electrornyographic signals is an important stage on neurological investigations that aim to understand the state of the neuromuscular system. In this context, the identification and clustering of MUAPs that exhibit common characteristics, and the assessment of which data features are most relevant for the definition of such cluster structure are central issues. In this paper, we propose the application of an unsupervised Feature Relevance Determination (FRD) method to the analysis of experimental MUAPs obtained from healthy human subjects. In contrast to approaches that require the knowledge of a priori information from the data, this FRD method is embedded on a constrained mixture model, known as Generative Topographic Mapping, which simultaneously performs clustering and visualization of MUAPs. The experimental results of the analysis of a data set consisting of MUAPs measured from the surface of the First Dorsal Interosseous, a hand muscle, indicate that the MUAP features corresponding to the hyperpolarization period in the physisiological process of generation of muscle fibre action potentials are consistently estimated as the most relevant and, therefore, as those that should be paid preferential attention for the interpretation of the MUAP groupings.

Grey-box radial basis function modelling: the art of incorporating prior knowledge

A basic principle in data modelling is to incorporate available a priori information regarding the underlying data generating mechanism into the modelling process. We adopt this principle and consider grey-box radial basis function (RBF) modelling capable of incorporating prior knowledge. Specifically, we show how to explicitly incorporate the two types of prior knowledge: the underlying data generating mechanism exhibits known symmetric property and the underlying process obeys a set of given boundary value constraints. The class of orthogonal least squares regression algorithms can readily be applied to construct parsimonious grey-box RBF models with enhanced generalisation capability.