Assimilation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data in a regional numerical weather prediction model using a one-dimensional variational approach

The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water vapour and the three window channels is selected. It maximises the reduction of errors in the model backgrounds while ensuring ease of operational implementation through accurate bias correction procedures and correct radiative transfer simulations. The 1D–VAR retrieval quality is firstly quantified in relative terms employing statistics to estimate the reduction in the background model errors. Additionally the absolute retrieval accuracy is assessed comparing the analysis with independent radiosonde and satellite observations. The inclusion of satellite data brings a substantial reduction in the warm and dry biases present in the forecast model. Moreover it is shown that the retrieval profiles generated by the 1D–VAR are well correlated with the radiosonde measurements. Subsequently the 1D–VAR technique is applied to two three–dimensional case–studies: a false alarm case–study occurred in Friuli–Venezia–Giulia on the 8th of July 2004 and a heavy precipitation case occurred in Emilia–Romagna region between 9th and 12th of April 2005. The impact of satellite data for these two events is evaluated in terms of increments in the integrated water vapour and saturation water vapour over the column, in the 2 meters temperature and specific humidity and in the surface temperature. To improve the 1D–VAR technique a method to calculate flow–dependent model error covariance matrices is also assessed. The approach employs members from an ensemble forecast system generated by perturbing physical parameterisation schemes inside the model. The improved set–up applied to the case of 8th of July 2004 shows a substantial neutral impact.

Applications of remote sensing and geographic information systems in geomorphological studies: Safaga - El Quseir area, Red Sea coast, Egypt as an example

In den letzten drei Jahrzehnten sind Fernerkundung und GIS in den Geowissenschaften zunehmend wichtiger geworden, um die konventionellen Methoden von Datensammlung und zur Herstellung von Landkarten zu verbessern. Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit der Anwendung von Fernerkundung und geographischen Informationssystemen (GIS) für geomorphologische Untersuchungen. Durch die Kombination beider Techniken ist es vor allem möglich geworden, geomorphologische Formen im Überblick und dennoch detailliert zu erfassen. Als Grundlagen werden in dieser Arbeit topographische und geologische Karten, Satellitenbilder und Klimadaten benutzt. Die Arbeit besteht aus 6 Kapiteln. Das erste Kapitel gibt einen allgemeinen Überblick über den Untersuchungsraum. Dieser umfasst folgende morphologische Einheiten, klimatischen Verhältnisse, insbesondere die Ariditätsindizes der Küsten- und Gebirgslandschaft sowie das Siedlungsmuster beschrieben. Kapitel 2 befasst sich mit der regionalen Geologie und Stratigraphie des Untersuchungsraumes. Es wird versucht, die Hauptformationen mit Hilfe von ETM-Satellitenbildern zu identifizieren. Angewandt werden hierzu folgende Methoden: Colour Band Composite, Image Rationing und die sog. überwachte Klassifikation. Kapitel 3 enthält eine Beschreibung der strukturell bedingten Oberflächenformen, um die Wechselwirkung zwischen Tektonik und geomorphologischen Prozessen aufzuklären. Es geht es um die vielfältigen Methoden, zum Beispiel das sog. Image Processing, um die im Gebirgskörper vorhandenen Lineamente einwandfrei zu deuten. Spezielle Filtermethoden werden angewandt, um die wichtigsten Lineamente zu kartieren. Kapitel 4 stellt den Versuch dar, mit Hilfe von aufbereiteten SRTM-Satellitenbildern eine automatisierte Erfassung des Gewässernetzes. Es wird ausführlich diskutiert, inwieweit bei diesen Arbeitsschritten die Qualität kleinmaßstäbiger SRTM-Satellitenbilder mit großmaßstäbigen topographischen Karten vergleichbar ist. Weiterhin werden hydrologische Parameter über eine qualitative und quantitative Analyse des Abflussregimes einzelner Wadis erfasst. Der Ursprung von Entwässerungssystemen wird auf der Basis geomorphologischer und geologischer Befunde interpretiert. Kapitel 5 befasst sich mit der Abschätzung der Gefahr episodischer Wadifluten. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ihres jährlichen Auftretens bzw. des Auftretens starker Fluten im Abstand mehrerer Jahre wird in einer historischen Betrachtung bis 1921 zurückverfolgt. Die Bedeutung von Regentiefs, die sich über dem Roten Meer entwickeln, und die für eine Abflussbildung in Frage kommen, wird mit Hilfe der IDW-Methode (Inverse Distance Weighted) untersucht. Betrachtet werden außerdem weitere, regenbringende Wetterlagen mit Hilfe von Meteosat Infrarotbildern. Genauer betrachtet wird die Periode 1990-1997, in der kräftige, Wadifluten auslösende Regenfälle auftraten. Flutereignisse und Fluthöhe werden anhand von hydrographischen Daten (Pegelmessungen) ermittelt. Auch die Landnutzung und Siedlungsstruktur im Einzugsgebiet eines Wadis wird berücksichtigt. In Kapitel 6 geht es um die unterschiedlichen Küstenformen auf der Westseite des Roten Meeres zum Beispiel die Erosionsformen, Aufbauformen, untergetauchte Formen. Im abschließenden Teil geht es um die Stratigraphie und zeitliche Zuordnung von submarinen Terrassen auf Korallenriffen sowie den Vergleich mit anderen solcher Terrassen an der ägyptischen Rotmeerküste westlich und östlich der Sinai-Halbinsel.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15–20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

Evaluating sustainability and food security of peasant farming systems in Mesoamerican highlands

En las últimas décadas, la agricultura sostenible ha sido objeto de gran interés y debate académico, no sólo en términos conceptuales, sino también en términos metodológicos. La persistencia de la inseguridad alimentaria y el deterioro de los recursos naturales en muchas regiones del mundo, ha provocado el surgimiento de numerosas iniciativas centradas en revitalizar la agricultura campesina así como renovadas discusiones sobre el rol que juega la agricultura como motor de desarrollo y principal actividad para alivio de la pobreza. Por ello, cuando hablamos de evaluar sistemas campesinos de montaña, debemos considerar tanto la dimensión alimentaria como las especificidades propias de los sistemas montañosos como base fundamental de la sostenibilidad. Al evaluar la contribución que han hecho alternativas tecnológicas y de manejo en la mejora de la sostenibilidad y la seguridad alimentaria de los sistemas campesinos de montaña en Mesoamérica, surgen tres preguntas de investigación: • ¿Se está evaluando la sostenibilidad de los sistemas campesinos teniendo en cuenta la variabilidad climática, la participación de los agricultores y las dinámicas temporales? • ¿Podemos rescatar tendencias comunes en estos sistemas y extrapolar los resultados a otras zonas? • ¿Son inequívocamente positivas las alternativas propuestas que se han llevado a cabo? En este trabajo se presentan tres evaluaciones de sostenibilidad que tratan de poner de manifiesto cuáles son los retos y oportunidades que enfrentan actualmente los sistemas campesinos de montaña. En primer lugar, se evalúan tres sistemas de manejo agrícola bajo dos años meteorológicamente contrastantes. Se determinó que durante el año que experimentó lluvias abundantes y temperaturas moderadas, los sistemas de bajos insumos, basados en el uso de abonos orgánicos y rotación de cultivos, obtuvieron los mejores resultados en indicadores ecológicos y similares resultados en los económicos y sociales que el sistema de altos insumos químicos. En el segundo año, con heladas tempranas y sequía invernal, la productividad se redujo para todos los sistemas pero los sistemas más diversificados (en variedades de maíz y/o siembra de otros cultivos) pudieron resistir mejor los contratiempos climáticos. En segundo lugar, se evalúa el grado de conocimiento (percepción) campesino para determinar los factores claves que determinan la sostenibilidad de sus sistemas y su seguridad alimentaria. Se determinó que los principales puntos críticos identificados por los campesinos (tamaño de parcela y pendiente del terreno) afectan de forma significativa a cuestiones de índole económica, pero no son capaces de explicar los desequilibrios alimenticios existentes. Realizando un análisis comparativo entre comunidades que presentaban buenos y malos resultados en cuanto a aporte energético y proteico, se determinó que la seguridad alimentaria estaba relacionada con la sostenibilidad de los sistemas y que concretamente estaba ligada a los atributos de equidad y autonomía. Otro resultado destacable fue que las comunidades más marginales y con mayor dificultad de acceso mostraron mayores niveles de inseguridad alimentaria, pero la variabilidad intergrupal fue muy alta. Eso demuestra que la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional forma parte de un complejo sistema de estrategias de autoabastecimiento ligada a la idiosincrasia misma de cada uno de los hogares. En tercer lugar, se evaluó el desempeño de las escuelas de campo de agricultores (ECAs) en la mejora de la sostenibilidad y la seguridad alimentaria de un sistema campesino de montaña. Para ver el efecto del impacto de estas metodologías a largo plazo, se estudiaron tres comunidades donde se habían implementado ECAs hace 8, 5 y 3 años. Encontramos que el impacto fue progresivo ya que fue la comunidad más antigua la que mejores valores obtuvo. El impacto de las ECAs fue rápido y persistente en los indicadores relacionados con la participación, el acceso a servicios básicos y la conservación de los recursos naturales. El estudio demostró un claro potencial de las ECAs en la mejora general de la sostenibilidad y la seguridad alimentaria de estos sistemas, sin embargo se observó una relación directa entre el aumento de producción agrícola y el uso de insumos externos, lo que puede suponer un punto crítico para los ideales sostenibles. ABSTRACT During the last decades, sustainable agriculture has been the subject of considerable academic interest and debate, not only in conceptual terms, but also in methodological ones. The persistence of high levels of environmental degradation and food insecurity in many regions has led to new initiatives focused on revitalizing peasant agriculture and renewed discussions of the role of sustainable agriculture as an engine for development, environmental conservation and poverty alleviation. Therefore, to assess mountain farming systems, we must consider food dimension and taking into account the specificities of the mountain systems as the foundation of sustainability. When evaluating contribution of technological and management alternative proposals in achieving sustainability and food security for peasant farming systems in Mesoamerican highlands, three research questions arise: • Is sustainability of peasant-farming systems being evaluated taking into account climate variability, participation of farmers and temporal dynamics? • Can we rescue common trends in these systems and extrapolate the results to other areas? • What alternative proposals that have been conducted are unequivocally positives? In this document, we present three evaluations of sustainability that try to highlight the challenges and opportunities that currently face mountain farming systems in Mesoamerica. First, we evaluate the sustainability of three agricultural management systems in two contrasting weather years. We determined that during the first year that exposed heavy rains and moderate temperatures, low-input systems, which are based on the use of organic fertilizers and crop rotation, provided better results in terms of ecological indicators and equal results in terms of economic and social indicators than those achieved using a high chemical input system. In the second year, which featured early frosts and a winter drought, productivity declined in all systems; however, the most diversified systems (in terms of the maize varieties grown and the sowing of other crops) more successfully resisted these climatic adversities. Second, we evaluate the farmers’ perception to determine the key drivers for achieving their sustainability and food and nutritional security. We determined that the key factors identified by farmers (landholding size and slope of cropland) exerted significant impacts on economic disparities but did not explain the malnutrition levels. We compared two contrasting hamlets according to their energy and protein supply, one namely Limón Timoté (LT), which did not present food problems and Limón Peña Blanca (LP), which did exhibit food insecurity. The results showed that FNS is linked to sustainability, and it is primarily related to the sustainability attributes of self-reliance and equity. Although the more marginated and inaccessible community exhibited more food insecurity, food and nutritional security depend upon a complex array of self-sufficiency strategies that remain linked to individual household idiosyncrasies. Third, we evaluated the impact of farmer field schools for improving the sustainability and food security of peasant mountain systems. In order to appreciate the long-term impact, we studied three communities where FFSs were implemented eight, five and three years ago, respectively. We found that FFSs have a gradual impact, as the community that first implemented FFSs scores highest. The impact of FFSs was broad and long-lasting for indicators related to participation, access to basic services and conservation of natural resources. This study demonstrates the potential of FFSs, but more attention will have to be paid to critical indicators in order to scale up their potential in the future. We observed a direct relationship between the increase in agricultural production and the use of external inputs, which is a critical point for sustainable ideals.

Field evaluation of the Radar Control Systems (RCS) radar anti-collision warning system.

Partners for Advanced Transit and Highways, Berkeley, Calif.

Information for local officials on flood warning systems /

May 1979.

Application of Doppler weather radar to turbulence measurements which affect aircraft /

Bibliography: p. 28-29.

Disaster preparedness : publications, films, and other audio-visual materials from the National Weather Service.

Mode of access: Internet.

Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado.

Mode of access: Internet.

Analysis of the performance of the aviation weather system /

v. 1. Summary, conclusions, recommendations -- v. 2. Distribution of weather information, age analysis of weather information, observation process and instruments, communication systems, credibility of weather information.

Impact of weather dependency on planning decisions in the australian national electricity market

A long-term planning method for the electricity market is to simulate market operation into the future. Outputs from market simulation include indicators for transmission augmentation and new generation investment. A key input to market simulations is demand forecasts. For market simulation purposes, regional demand forecasts for each half-hour interval of the forecasting horizon are required, and they must accurately represent realistic demand profiles and interregional demand relationships. In this paper, a demand model is developed to accurately model these relationships. The effects of uncertainty in weather patterns and inherent correlations between regional demands on market simulation results are presented. This work signifies the advantages of probabilistic modeling of demand levels when making market-based planning decisions.

Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

A review of the welfare of dairy cows in continuously housed and pasture-based production systems.

There is increasing interest in the use of continuous housing systems for dairy cows, with various reasons put forward to advocate such systems. However, the welfare of dairy cows is typically perceived to be better within pasture-based systems, although such judgements are often not scientifically based. The aim of this review was to interrogate the existing scientific literature to compare the welfare, including health, of dairy cows in continuously housed and pasture-based systems. While summarising existing work, knowledge gaps and directions for future research are also identified. The scope of the review is broad, examining relevant topics under three main headings; health, behaviour, and physiology. Regarding health, cows on pasture-based systems had lower levels of lameness, hoof pathologies, hock lesions, mastitis, uterine disease, and mortality compared to cows on continuously housed systems. Pasture access also had benefits for dairy cow behaviour, in terms of grazing, improved lying / resting times, and lower levels of aggression. Moreover, when given the choice between pasture and indoor housing, cows showed an overall preference for pasture, particularly at night. However, the review highlighted the need for a deeper understanding of cow preference and behaviour. Potential areas for concern within pasture-based systems included physiological indicators of more severe negative energy balance, and in some situations, the potential for compromised welfare with exposure to unpredictable weather conditions. In summary, the results from this review highlight that there remain considerable animal welfare benefits from incorporating pasture access into dairy production systems.

A multi vector energy analysis for interconnected power and gas systems

This paper presents the first multi vector energy analysis for the interconnected energy systems of Great Britain (GB) and Ireland. Both systems share a common high penetration of wind power, but significantly different security of supply outlooks. Ireland is heavily dependent on gas imports from GB, giving significance to the interconnected aspect of the methodology in addition to the gas and power interactions analysed. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model coupled to an energy flow model of the gas supply network is developed. Extreme weather events driving increased domestic gas demand and low wind power output were utilised to increase gas supply network stress. Decreased wind profiles had a larger impact on system security than high domestic gas demand. However, the GB energy system was resilient during high demand periods but gas network stress limited the ramping capability of localised generating units. Additionally, gas system entry node congestion in the Irish system was shown to deliver a 40% increase in short run costs for generators. Gas storage was shown to reduce the impact of high demand driven congestion delivering a reduction in total generation costs of 14% in the period studied and reducing electricity imports from GB, significantly contributing to security of supply.