Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity

During the last years cities around the world have invested important quantities of money in measures for reducing congestion and car-trips. Investments which are nothing but potential solutions for the well-known urban sprawl phenomenon, also called the “development trap” that leads to further congestion and a higher proportion of our time spent in slow moving cars. Over the path of this searching for solutions, the complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. The main question on discussion is, how to encourage multi-stop tours? Thus, the objective of this paper is to verify whether unobserved factors influence tour complexity. For this purpose, we use a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006-2007 in Madrid, a suitable case study for analyzing urban sprawl due to new urban developments and substantial changes in mobility patterns in the last years. A total of 943 individuals were interviewed from 3 selected neighbourhoods (CBD, urban and suburban). We study the effect of unobserved factors on trip frequency. This paper present the estimation of an hybrid model where the latent variable is called propensity to travel and the discrete choice model is composed by 5 alternatives of tour type. The results show that characteristics of the neighbourhoods in Madrid are important to explain trip frequency. The influence of land use variables on trip generation is clear and in particular the presence of commercial retails. Through estimation of elasticities and forecasting we determine to what extent land-use policy measures modify travel demand. Comparing aggregate elasticities with percentage variations, it can be seen that percentage variations could lead to inconsistent results. The result shows that hybrid models better explain travel behavior than traditional discrete choice models.

Exploring the role of social capital influence variables on travel behaviour

This paper explores the potential role of individual trip characteristics and social capital network variables in the choice of transport mode. A sample of around 100 individuals living or working in one suburb of Madrid (i.e. Las Rosas district of Madrid) participated in a smartphone short panel survey, entering travel data for an entire working week. A Mixed Logit model was estimated with this data to analyze shifts to metro as a consequence of the opening of two new stations in the area. Apart from classical explanatory variables, such as travel time and cost, gender, license and car ownership, the model incorporated two “social capital network” variables: participation in voluntary activities and receiving help for various tasks (i.e. child care, housekeeping, etc.). Both variables improved the capacity of the model to explain transport mode shifts. Further, our results confirm that the shift towards metro was higher in the case of people “helped” and lower for those participating in some voluntary activities.

Effect of freeway corridor attributes upon motorist diversion responses to real-time travel time information.

Texas Department of Transportation, Austin

Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey : summary of travel trends /

Includes glossary.

Optimization of traffic signal controls within equilibrium route choice models : final report to Illinois Department of Transpotation/

Cover title.

Policy evaluation with travel behavior models : methodological issues and case studies.

Mode of access: Internet.

Derivation and use of automobile availability as a variable for estimating travel demand /

Jan. 1979.

Coaching or gaming? Implications of strategy choice for home based stroke rehabilitation

Background: The enduring aging of the world population and prospective increase of age-related chronic diseases urge the implementation of new models for healthcare delivery. One strategy relies on ICT (Information and Communications Technology) home-based solutions allowing clients to pursue their treatments without institutionalization. Stroke survivors are a particular population that could strongly benefit from such solutions, but is not yet clear what the best approach is for bringing forth an adequate and sustainable usage of home-based rehabilitation systems. Here we explore two possible approaches: coaching and gaming. Methods: We performed trials with 20 healthy participants and 5 chronic stroke survivors to study and compare execution of an elbow flexion and extension task when performed within a coaching mode that provides encouragement or within a gaming mode. For each mode we analyzed compliance, arm movement kinematics and task scores. In addition, we assessed the usability and acceptance of the proposed modes through a customized self-report questionnaire. Results: In the healthy participants sample, 13/20 preferred the gaming mode and rated it as being significantly more fun (p < .05), but the feedback delivered by the coaching mode was subjectively perceived as being more useful (p < .01). In addition, the activity level (number of repetitions and total movement of the end effector) was significantly higher (p <.001) during coaching. However, the quality of movements was superior in gaming with a trend towards shorter movement duration (p=.074), significantly shorter travel distance (p <.001), higher movement efficiency (p <.001) and higher performance scores (p <.001). Stroke survivors also showed a trend towards higher activity levels in coaching, but with more movement quality during gaming. Finally, both training modes showed overall high acceptance. Conclusions: Gaming led to higher enjoyment and increased quality in movement execution in healthy participants. However, we observed that game mechanics strongly determined user behavior and limited activity levels. In contrast, coaching generated higher activity levels. Hence, the purpose of treatment and profile of end-users has to be considered when deciding on the most adequate approach for home based stroke rehabilitation.

Coaching or gaming? Implications of strategy choice for home based stroke rehabilitation

Background: The enduring aging of the world population and prospective increase of age-related chronic diseases urge the implementation of new models for healthcare delivery. One strategy relies on ICT (Information and Communications Technology) home-based solutions allowing clients to pursue their treatments without institutionalization. Stroke survivors are a particular population that could strongly benefit from such solutions, but is not yet clear what the best approach is for bringing forth an adequate and sustainable usage of home-based rehabilitation systems. Here we explore two possible approaches: coaching and gaming. Methods: We performed trials with 20 healthy participants and 5 chronic stroke survivors to study and compare execution of an elbow flexion and extension task when performed within a coaching mode that provides encouragement or within a gaming mode. For each mode we analyzed compliance, arm movement kinematics and task scores. In addition, we assessed the usability and acceptance of the proposed modes through a customized self-report questionnaire. Results: In the healthy participants sample, 13/20 preferred the gaming mode and rated it as being significantly more fun (p < .05), but the feedback delivered by the coaching mode was subjectively perceived as being more useful (p < .01). In addition, the activity level (number of repetitions and total movement of the end effector) was significantly higher (p <.001) during coaching. However, the quality of movements was superior in gaming with a trend towards shorter movement duration (p=.074), significantly shorter travel distance (p <.001), higher movement efficiency (p <.001) and higher performance scores (p <.001). Stroke survivors also showed a trend towards higher activity levels in coaching, but with more movement quality during gaming. Finally, both training modes showed overall high acceptance. Conclusions: Gaming led to higher enjoyment and increased quality in movement execution in healthy participants. However, we observed that game mechanics strongly determined user behavior and limited activity levels. In contrast, coaching generated higher activity levels. Hence, the purpose of treatment and profile of end-users has to be considered when deciding on the most adequate approach for home based stroke rehabilitation.

Analytical modeling and sensitivity analysis for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks

This paper presents a model for estimation of average travel time and its variability on signalized urban networks using cumulative plots. The plots are generated based on the availability of data: a) case-D, for detector data only; b) case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different degrees of saturation and different detector detection intervals is consistent for case-DSS and case-DS whereas, for case-D the performance is inconsistent. The sensitivity analysis of the model for case-D indicates that it is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Transit users' route-choice modelling in transit assignment : a review

This paper reviews the main studies on transit users’ route choice in thecontext of transit assignment. The studies are categorized into three groups: static transit assignment, within-day dynamic transit assignment, and emerging approaches. The motivations and behavioural assumptions of these approaches are re-examined. The first group includes shortest-path heuristics in all-or-nothing assignment, random utility maximization route-choice models in stochastic assignment, and user equilibrium based assignment. The second group covers within-day dynamics in transit users’ route choice, transit network formulations, and dynamic transit assignment. The third group introduces the emerging studies on behavioural complexities, day-to-day dynamics, and real-time dynamics in transit users’ route choice. Future research directions are also discussed.

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Investigation into travel modes of TOD users : impacts of personal and transit characteristics

Transit Oriented Developments (TODs) are often designed to promote the use of sustainable modes of transport and reduce car usage. This paper investigates the effect of personal and transit characteristics on travel choices of TOD users. Binary logistic regression models were developed to determine the probability of choosing sustainable modes of transport including walking, cycling and public transport. Kelvin Grove Urban Village (KGUV) located in Brisbane, Australia was chosen as case study TOD. The modal splits for employees, students, shoppers and residents showed that 47% of employees, 84% of students, 71% of shoppers and 56% of residents used sustainable modes of transport.

Mathematical modelling of tumour-induced angiogenesis

The growth of solid tumours beyond a critical size is dependent upon angiogenesis, the formation of new blood vessels from an existing vasculature. Tumours may remain dormant at microscopic sizes for some years before switching to a mode in which growth of a supportive vasculature is initiated. The new blood vessels supply nutrients, oxygen, and access to routes by which tumour cells may travel to other sites within the host (metastasize). In recent decades an abundance of biological research has focused on tumour-induced angiogenesis in the hope that treatments targeted at the vasculature may result in a stabilisation or regression of the disease: a tantalizing prospect. The complex and fascinating process of angiogenesis has also attracted the interest of researchers in the field of mathematical biology, a discipline that is, for mathematics, relatively new. The challenge in mathematical biology is to produce a model that captures the essential elements and critical dependencies of a biological system. Such a model may ultimately be used as a predictive tool. In this thesis we examine a number of aspects of tumour-induced angiogenesis, focusing on growth of the neovasculature external to the tumour. Firstly we present a one-dimensional continuum model of tumour-induced angiogenesis in which elements of the immune system or other tumour-cytotoxins are delivered via the newly formed vessels. This model, based on observations from experiments by Judah Folkman et al., is able to show regression of the tumour for some parameter regimes. The modelling highlights a number of interesting aspects of the process that may be characterised further in the laboratory. The next model we present examines the initiation positions of blood vessel sprouts on an existing vessel, in a two-dimensional domain. This model hypothesises that a simple feedback inhibition mechanism may be used to describe the spacing of these sprouts with the inhibitor being produced by breakdown of the existing vessel's basement membrane. Finally, we have developed a stochastic model of blood vessel growth and anastomosis in three dimensions. The model has been implemented in C++, includes an openGL interface, and uses a novel algorithm for calculating proximity of the line segments representing a growing vessel. This choice of programming language and graphics interface allows for near-simultaneous calculation and visualisation of blood vessel networks using a contemporary personal computer. In addition the visualised results may be transformed interactively, and drop-down menus facilitate changes in the parameter values. Visualisation of results is of vital importance in the communication of mathematical information to a wide audience, and we aim to incorporate this philosophy in the thesis. As biological research further uncovers the intriguing processes involved in tumourinduced angiogenesis, we conclude with a comment from mathematical biologist Jim Murray, Mathematical biology is : : : the most exciting modern application of mathematics.