Forecasting high-frequency futures returns using online langevin dynamics

Forecasting the returns of assets at high frequency is the key challenge for high-frequency algorithmic trading strategies. In this paper, we propose a jump-diffusion model for asset price movements that models price and its trend and allows a momentum strategy to be developed. Conditional on jump times, we derive closed-form transition densities for this model. We show how this allows us to extract a trend from high-frequency finance data by using a Rao-Blackwellized variable rate particle filter to filter incoming price data. Our results show that even in the presence of transaction costs our algorithm can achieve a Sharpe ratio above 1 when applied across a portfolio of 75 futures contracts at high frequency. © 2011 IEEE.

Public-public partnerships (PUPs) in water

Water operators need to be efficient, accountable, honest public institutions providing a universal service. Many water services however lack the institutional strength, the human resources, the technical expertise and equipment, or the financial or managerial capacity to provide these services. They need support to develop these capacities. The vast majority of water operators in the world are in the public sector – 90% of all major cities are served by such bodies. This means that the largest pool of experience and expertise, and the great majority of examples of good practice and sound institutions, are to be found in existing public sector water operators. Because they are public sector, however, they do not have any natural commercial incentive to provide international support. Their incentive stems from solidarity, not profit. Since 1990, however, the policies of donors and development banks have focussed on the private companies and their incentives. The vast resources of the public sector have been overlooked, even blocked by pro-private policies. Out of sight of these global policy-makers, however, a growing number of public sector water companies have been engaged, in a great variety of ways, in helping others develop the capacity to be effective and accountable public services. These supportive arrangements are now called 'public-public partnerships' (PUPs). A public-public partnership (PUP) is simply a collaboration between two or more public authorities or organisations, based on solidarity, to improve the capacity and effectiveness of one partner in providing public water or sanitation services. They have been described as: “a peer relationship forged around common values and objectives, which exclude profit-seeking”.1 Neither partner expects a commercial profit, directly or indirectly. This makes PUPs very different from the public–private partnerships (PPPs) which have been promoted by the international financial institutions (IFIs) like the World Bank. The problems of PPPs have been examined in a number of reports. A great advantage of PUPs is that they avoid the risks of such partnerships: transaction costs, contract failure, renegotiation, the complexities of regulation, commercial opportunism, monopoly pricing, commercial secrecy, currency risk, and lack of public legitimacy.2 PUPs are not merely an abstract concept. The list in the annexe to this paper includes over 130 PUPs in around 70 countries. This means that far more countries have hosted PUPs than host PPPs in water – according to a report from PPIAF in December 2008, there are only 44 countries with private participation in water. These PUPs cover a period of over 20 years, and been used in all regions of the world. The earliest date to the 1980s, when the Yokohama Waterworks Bureau first started partnerships to help train staff in other Asian countries. Many of the PUP projects have been initiated in the last few years, a result of the growing recognition of PUPs as a tool for achieving improvements in public water management. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the typical objectives of PUPs; the different forms of PUPs and partners involved; a series of case studies of actual PUPs; and an examination of the recent WOPs initiative. It then offers recommendations for future development of PUPs.

Sole agency vs multi-agency: An investigation of agency practice across England and Wales

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of different agency practice on agency fees, business efficiency, and housing market liquidity. Design/methodology/approach: The paper studies the effect of sole and multiple agency practices on estate agent efficiency, housing market liquidity, and commission fee levels. The analysis uses the survey data from 2000 to 2006 to investigate the different agency practices across England and Wales and their effect on estate agency business efficiency, housing market liquidity, selling price, and fee levels. Findings: The empirical analysis confirms that agency practice has a locality bias, that is, some regions are more likely to adopt sole agency practice than other regions. The estate agents with a sole agency practice charge a lower agency fee, help clients to achieve better selling price and are more efficient; whereas multiple agency practice facilitates liquidity in the housing market, but experiences higher fall-through rate. Research limitations/implications: The research focuses on estate agent rather than consumers due to the limitation of the data based on a research project concerning transaction costs designed prior to this analysis. Originality/value: There is little other research that investigates the residential estate agency practice and its impact on housing market in the past three decades in England and Wales. The findings are a useful guide for practitioners to better understand the issues associated with different agency practices and should enhance business efficiency and performance.

The determinants of business performance of estate agency in England and Wales

Purpose: This paper seeks to investigate the factors influencing the business performance of estate agency in England and Wales. Design/methodology/approach: The paper investigates the effect of housing market, company size and pricing policy on business performance in the estate agency sector in England and Wales. The analysis uses the survey data of Woolwich Cost of Moving Survey (a survey of transactions costs sponsored by the Woolwich/Barclays Bank) from 2003 to 2005 to test the hypothesis that the business performance of estate agency is affected by industry characteristics and firm factors. Findings: The empirical analysis indicates that the business performance of estate agency is subject to market environment volatility such as market uncertainty, housing market liquidity and house price changes. The firm factors such as firm size and the level of agency fee have no explanatory power in explaining business performance. The level of agency fee is positively associated with firm size, market environment and liquidity. Research limitations/implications: The research is limited to the data received and is based on a research project on transaction costs designed prior to this analysis. Originality/value: There is little other research that investigates the factors determining the business performance of estate agency, using consecutive data of three years across England and Wales. The findings are useful for practitioners and/or managers to allocate resources and adjust their business strategy to enhance business performance in the estate agency sector.

Resource access needs and capabilities as mediators of the relationship between VC firm size and syndication

Drawing from the resource-based view and transaction costs economics, we develop a theoretical framework to explain why small and large firms face different levels of resource access needs and resource access capabilities, which mediate the relationship between firm size and hybrid governance. Employing a sample of 317 venture capital firms, drawn across six European countries, we empirically assess our framework in the context of venture capital syndication. We estimate a path model using structural equation modeling and find, consistent with our theoretical framework, mediating effects of different types of resource access needs and resource access capabilities between VC firm size and syndication frequency. These findings advance the small business literature by highlighting the trade-offs that size imposes on firms that seek to manage their access to external resources through hybrid governance strategies.

Value creation and value claiming in strategic outsourcing decisions: A resource contingency perspective

This study integrates the concepts of value creation and value claiming into a theoretical framework that emphasizes the dependence of resource value maximization on value-claiming motivations in outsourcing decisions. To test this theoretical framework, it develops refutable implications to explain the firm's outsourcing decision, and it uses data from 178 firms in the publishing and printing industry on outsourcing of application services. The results show that in outsourcing decisions, resource value and transaction costs are simultaneously considered and that outsourcing decisions are dependent on alignment between resource and transaction attributes. The findings support a resource contingency view that highlights value-claiming mechanisms as resource contingency in interorganizational strategic decisions.

Firm Size and Export Intensity: Solving an Empirical Puzzle.

This paper presents a transaction costs analysis of the firm size and export intensity relationship. We submit that relation-specific investments and the costs of safeguarding these investments play a significant role in export relationships. Firm size related differences with respect to these factors are used to explain the different relationships between firm size and export intensity that have been found in previous studies. The theoretical framework is tested empirically, and support is found for different industries.

O desenvolvimento dos sistemas de valor do sector segurador em Portugal

A investigação em apreço tem como horizonte de ocorrência o espaço inter-organizacional onde as empresas se relacionam entre si, com os seus fornecedores, canais e Clientes. É pretendido estudar o actual estado das parcerias inter-organizacionais do sector segurador nacional e definir uma estratégia de desenvolvimento integrado dos sistemas de valor. Com base num modelo de análise ancorado na (1) racionalidade económica inscrita na TCE (teoria dos custos de transacção) e (2) na óptica das Capacidades Dinâmicas, é proposto o Modelo GPS (Gestão Integrada de Parcerias) compaginável com uma visão holística e dinâmica. A metodologia de verificação empírica compreendeu (1) recolha de dados através de questionário, dirigido a Companhias e Parceiros e (2) entrevistas semi-estruturadas. A análise descritiva dos dados permitiu validar o modelo GPS e caracterizar um sistema de valor heterogéneo, complexo e diversificado relativamente à natureza e intensidade de relacionamentos. O sistema de relacionamentos foi enquadrado numa escala de maturidade onde foram posicionadas as várias práticas de gestão de parcerias. Actualmente nos seguros estamos perante um sistema mais economic-intensive, transaccional, do que knowledge-intensive. No teste de hipóteses, efectuado com a ferramenta SPSS, assinalam-se as correlações que se esperavam encontrar, bem como as (principais) ausências. De facto, a ausência de vestígios de correlação entre governance social/confiança e colaboração nos seguros não era esperada e constitui uma chamada de atenção para uma dimensão sub-explorada, conducente a um quadro tensional. No final, com base na realidade captada, foram traçadas recomendações de desenvolvimento dos sistemas de valor visando alcançar níveis colaborativos mais eficazes, assentes na força dos laços fortes. Todavia, esta nova narrativa de gestão não é neutral face aos modelos vigentes, implicando algum grau de ruptura. A continuação de especialização em actividades core, desconstruindo de forma (mais) pronunciada a cadeia de valor, secundada por maior níveis de colaboração e socialização entre pares, são elementos constitutivos da realidade futura. Vendo para além da linha do horizonte, os gestores seguradores não podem ficar indiferentes à projecção de uma matriz de fundo de relacionamentos mais colaborativos enquanto terreno fértil de inovação e renovação de fontes de vantagem competitiva.

Determinantes da procura da Bitcoin

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação da Professora Doutora Celsa Maria Carvalho Machado

Pair trading: Clustering based on principal component analysis

This study focuses on the implementation of several pair trading strategies across three emerging markets, with the objective of comparing the results obtained from the different strategies and assessing if pair trading benefits from a more volatile environment. The results show that, indeed, there are higher potential profits arising from emerging markets. However, the higher excess return will be partially offset by higher transaction costs, which will be a determinant factor to the profitability of pair trading strategies. Also, a new clustering approach based on the Principal Component Analysis was tested as an alternative to the more standard clustering by Industry Groups. The new clustering approach delivers promising results, consistently reducing volatility to a greater extent than the Industry Group approach, with no significant harm to the excess returns.

Impact of Black-Scholes assumptions on Delta Hedging

In this work we are going to evaluate the different assumptions used in the Black- Scholes-Merton pricing model, namely log-normality of returns, continuous interest rates, inexistence of dividends and transaction costs, and the consequences of using them to hedge different options in real markets, where they often fail to verify. We are going to conduct a series of tests in simulated underlying price series, where alternatively each assumption will be violated and every option delta hedging profit and loss analysed. Ultimately we will monitor how the aggressiveness of an option payoff causes its hedging to be more vulnerable to profit and loss variations, caused by the referred assumptions.

Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

The Pursuit of Efficient Copyright Licensing : How Some Rights Reserved Attempts to Solve the Problems of All Rights Reserved

This dissertation analyses the growing pool of copyrighted works, which are offered to the public using Creative Commons licensing. The study consist of analysis of the novel licensing system, the licensors, and the changes of the "all rights reserved" —paradigm of copyright law. Copyright law reserves all rights to the creator until seventy years have passed since her demise. Many claim that this endangers communal interests. Quite often the creators are willing to release some rights. This, however, is very difficult to do and needs help of specialized lawyers. The study finds that the innovative Creative Commons licensing scheme is well suited for low value - high volume licensing. It helps to reduce transaction costs on several le¬vels. However, CC licensing is not a "silver bullet". Privacy, moral rights, the problems of license interpretation and license compatibility with other open licenses and collecting societies remain unsolved. The study consists of seven chapters. The first chapter introduces the research topic and research questions. The second and third chapters inspect the Creative Commons licensing scheme's technical, economic and legal aspects. The fourth and fifth chapters examine the incentives of the licensors who use open licenses and describe certain open business models. The sixth chapter studies the role of collecting societies and whether two institutions, Creative Commons and collecting societies can coexist. The final chapter summarizes the findings. The dissertation contributes to the existing literature in several ways. There is a wide range of prior research on open source licensing. However, there is an urgent need for an extensive study of the Creative Commons licensing and its actual and potential impact on the creative ecosystem.