Sviluppo di un approccio congiunto fuzzy-Bayesiano per l'analisi e la modellizzazione degli ecosistemi: applicazione ad ecosistemi marini costieri.

Nell’attuale contesto di aumento degli impatti antropici e di “Global Climate Change” emerge la necessità di comprenderne i possibili effetti di questi sugli ecosistemi inquadrati come fruitori di servizi e funzioni imprescindibili sui quali si basano intere tessiture economiche e sociali. Lo studio previsionale degli ecosistemi si scontra con l’elevata complessità di questi ultimi in luogo di una altrettanto elevata scarsità di osservazioni integrate. L’approccio modellistico appare il più adatto all’analisi delle dinamiche complesse degli ecosistemi ed alla contestualizzazione complessa di risultati sperimentali ed osservazioni empiriche. L’approccio riduzionista-deterministico solitamente utilizzato nell’implementazione di modelli non si è però sin qui dimostrato in grado di raggiungere i livelli di complessità più elevati all’interno della struttura eco sistemica. La componente che meglio descrive la complessità ecosistemica è quella biotica in virtù dell’elevata dipendenza dalle altre componenti e dalle loro interazioni. In questo lavoro di tesi viene proposto un approccio modellistico stocastico basato sull’utilizzo di un compilatore naive Bayes operante in ambiente fuzzy. L’utilizzo congiunto di logica fuzzy e approccio naive Bayes è utile al processa mento del livello di complessità e conseguentemente incertezza insito negli ecosistemi. I modelli generativi ottenuti, chiamati Fuzzy Bayesian Ecological Model(FBEM) appaiono in grado di modellizare gli stati eco sistemici in funzione dell’ elevato numero di interazioni che entrano in gioco nella determinazione degli stati degli ecosistemi. Modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati per comprendere il rischio ambientale per habitat intertidale di spiagge sabbiose in caso di eventi di flooding costiero previsti nell’arco di tempo 2010-2100. L’applicazione è stata effettuata all’interno del progetto EU “Theseus” per il quale i modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati anche per una simulazione a lungo termine e per il calcolo dei tipping point specifici dell’habitat secondo eventi di flooding di diversa intensità.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

MIAWARA-C, a new ground based water vapor radiometer for measurement campaigns

In this paper a new 22 GHz water vapor spectro-radiometer which has been specifically designed for profile measurement campaigns of the middle atmosphere is presented. The instrument is of a compact design and has a simple set up procedure. It can be operated as a standalone instrument as it maintains its own weather station and a calibration scheme that does not rely on other instruments or the use of liquid nitrogen. The optical system of MIAWARA-C combines a choked gaussian horn antenna with a parabolic mirror which reduces the size of the instrument in comparison with currently existing radiometers. For the data acquisition a correlation receiver is used together with a digital cross correlating spectrometer. The complete backend section, including the computer, is located in the same housing as the instrument. The receiver section is temperature stabilized to minimize gain fluctuations. Calibration of the instrument is achieved through a balancing scheme with the sky used as the cold load and the tropospheric properties are determined by performing regular tipping curves. Since MIAWARA-C is used in measurement campaigns it is important to be able to determine the elevation pointing in a simple manner as this is a crucial parameter in the calibration process. Here we present two different methods; scanning the sky and the Sun. Finally, we report on the first spectra and retrieved water vapor profiles acquired during the Lapbiat campaign at the Finnish Meteorological Institute Arctic Research Centre in Sodankylä, Finland. The performance of MIAWARA-C is validated here by comparison of the presented profiles against the equivalent profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the EOS/Aura satellite.

A study of high solids anaerobic digestion of Bucknell University food waste followed by aerobic curing

Anaerobic digestion of food scraps has the potential to accomplish waste minimization, energy production, and compost or humus production. At Bucknell University, removal of food scraps from the waste stream could reduce municipal solid waste transportation costs and landfill tipping fees, and provide methane and humus for use on campus. To determine the suitability of food waste produced at Bucknell for high-solids anaerobic digestion (HSAD), a year-long characterization study was conducted. Physical and chemical properties, waste biodegradability, and annual production of biodegradable waste were assessed. Bucknell University food and landscape waste was digested at pilot-scale for over a year to test performance at low and high loading rates, ease of operation at 20% solids, benefits of codigestion of food and landscape waste, and toprovide digestate for studies to assess the curing needs of HSAD digestate. A laboratory-scale curing study was conducted to assess the curing duration required to reduce microbial activity, phytotoxicity, and odors to acceptable levels for subsequent use ofhumus. The characteristics of Bucknell University food and landscape waste were tested approximately weekly for one year, to determine chemical oxygen demand (COD), total solids (TS), volatile solids (VS), and biodegradability (from batch digestion studies). Fats, oil, and grease and total Kjeldahl nitrogen were also tested for some food waste samples. Based on the characterization and biodegradability studies, Bucknell University dining hall food waste is a good candidate for HSAD. During batch digestion studies Bucknell University food waste produced a mean of 288 mL CH4/g COD with a 95%confidence interval of 0.06 mL CH4/g COD. The addition of landscape waste for digestion increased methane production from both food and landscape waste; however, because the landscape waste biodegradability was extremely low the increase was small.Based on an informal waste audit, Bucknell could collect up to 100 tons of food waste from dining facilities each year. The pilot-scale high-solids anaerobic digestion study confirmed that digestion ofBucknell University food waste combined with landscape waste at a low organic loading rate (OLR) of 2 g COD/L reactor volume-day is feasible. During low OLR operation, stable reactor performance was demonstrated through monitoring of biogas production and composition, reactor total and volatile solids, total and soluble chemical oxygendemand, volatile fatty acid content, pH, and bicarbonate alkalinity. Low OLR HSAD of Bucknell University food waste and landscape waste combined produced 232 L CH4/kg COD and 229 L CH4/kg VS. When OLR was increased to high loading (15 g COD/L reactor volume-day) to assess maximum loading conditions, reactor performance became unstable due to ammonia accumulation and subsequent inhibition. The methaneproduction per unit COD also decreased (to 211 L CH4/kg COD fed), although methane production per unit VS increased (to 272 L CH4/kg VS fed). The degree of ammonia inhibition was investigated through respirometry in which reactor digestate was diluted and exposed to varying concentrations of ammonia. Treatments with low ammoniaconcentrations recovered quickly from ammonia inhibition within the reactor. The post-digestion curing process was studied at laboratory-scale, to provide a preliminary assessment of curing duration. Digestate was mixed with woodchips and incubated in an insulated container at 35 °C to simulate full-scale curing self-heatingconditions. Degree of digestate stabilization was determined through oxygen uptake rates, percent O2, temperature, volatile solids, and Solvita Maturity Index. Phytotoxicity was determined through observation of volatile fatty acid and ammonia concentrations.Stabilization of organics and elimination of phytotoxic compounds (after 10–15 days of curing) preceded significant reductions of volatile sulfur compounds (hydrogen sulfide, methanethiol, and dimethyl sulfide) after 15–20 days of curing. Bucknell University food waste has high biodegradability and is suitable for high-solids anaerobic digestion; however, it has a low C:N ratio which can result in ammonia accumulation under some operating conditions. The low biodegradability of Bucknell University landscape waste limits the amount of bioavailable carbon that it can contribute, making it unsuitable for use as a cosubstrate to increase the C:N ratio of food waste. Additional research is indicated to determine other cosubstrates with higher biodegradabilities that may allow successful HSAD of Bucknell University food waste at high OLRs. Some cosubstrates to investigate are office paper, field residues, or grease trap waste. A brief curing period of less than 3 weeks was sufficient to produce viable humus from digestate produced by low OLR HSAD of food and landscape waste.

Global Change and the World's Mountains-Research Needs and Emerging Themes for Sustainable Development A Synthesis From the 2010 Perth II Conference

The conference on Global Change and the World’s Mountains held in Perth, Scotland, in 2010 offered a unique opportunity to analyze the state and progress of mountain research and its contribution to sustainable mountain development, as well as to reflect on required reorientations of research agendas. In this paper we provide the results of a three-step assessment of the research presented by 450 researchers from around the world. First, we determined the state of the art of mountain research and categorized it based on the analytical structure of the Global Land Project (GLP 2005). Second, we identified emerging themes for future research. Finally, we assessed the contribution of mountain research to sustainable development along the lines of the Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability Research (International Council for Science 2010). Analysis revealed that despite the growing recognition of the importance of more integrative research (inter- and transdisciplinary), the research community gathered in Perth still focuses on environmental drivers of change and on interactions within ecological systems. Only a small percentage of current research seeks to enhance understanding of social systems and of interactions between social and ecological systems. From the ecological systems perspective, a greater effort is needed to disentangle and assess different drivers of change and to investigate impacts on the rendering of ecosystem services. From the social systems perspective, significant shortcomings remain in understanding the characteristics, trends, and impacts of human movements to, within, and out of mountain areas as a form of global change. Likewise, sociocultural drivers affecting collective behavior as well as incentive systems devised by policy and decision makers are little understood and require more in-depth investigation. Both the complexity of coupled social– ecological systems and incomplete data sets hinder integrated systems research. Increased understanding of linkages and feedbacks between social and ecological systems will help to identify nonlinearities and thresholds (tipping points) in both system types. This presupposes effective collaboration between ecological and social sciences. Reflections on the Grand Challenges in Sustainability Research put forth by the International Council for Science (2010) reveal the need to intensify research on effective responses and innovations. This will help to achieve sustainable development in mountain regions while maintaining the core competence of mountain research in forecasting and observation.

Targeting the conversion of ceramide to sphingosine 1-phosphate as a novel strategy for cancer therapy

Sphingolipids not only function as structural components of cell membranes but also act as signaling molecules to regulate fundamental cellular responses, such as cell death and differentiation, proliferation and certain types of inflammation. Particularly the cellular balance between ceramide and sphingosine 1-phosphate seems to be crucial for a cell's decision to either undergo apoptosis or proliferate, two events which are implicated in tumor development and growth. Whereas ceramide possesses proapoptotic capacity in many cell types, sphingosine 1-phosphate acts as a counterplayer able to induce cell proliferation and protect cells from undergoing apoptosis. Therefore, tipping the balance in favour of ceramide production, i.e. by inhibiting ceramidase or sphingosine kinase activities has potential to support its proapoptotic action and hence represents a promising rational approach to effective cancer therapy. This review highlights most recent data on the regulation of cellular sphingolipid formation and their potential implication in tumor development, and provides perspectives for their use as targets in molecular intervention therapy.

Saving soils at degradation frontlines: Sustainable land management in drylands

Healthy soils are fundamental to life. They grow the food we eat and the wood we use for shelter and fuel, purify the water we drink, and hold fast to the roots of the natural world we cherish. They are the ground beneath our feet and beneath our homes. But they are under threat, especially from human overuse and climate change. Nowhere is this more evident than in dryland areas, where soil degradation – or desertification – wears away at this essential resource, sometimes with sudden rapidity when a tipping point is crossed. Though it is a challenge, preserving and restoring healthy soils in drylands is possible, and it concerns all of us. Sustainable land management points the way.

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users’ knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio-ecological systems and to foster adaptive dryland management.

The elusive S2 state, the S1/S2 splitting, and the excimer states of the benzene dimer

We observe the weak S 0 → S 2 transitions of the T-shaped benzene dimers (Bz)2 and (Bz-d 6)2 about 250 cm−1 and 220 cm−1 above their respective S 0 → S 1 electronic origins using two-color resonant two-photon ionization spectroscopy. Spin-component scaled (SCS) second-order approximate coupled-cluster (CC2) calculations predict that for the tipped T-shaped geometry, the S 0 → S 2 electronic oscillator strength f el (S 2) is ∼10 times smaller than f el (S 1) and the S 2 state lies ∼240 cm−1 above S 1, in excellent agreement with experiment. The S 0 → S 1 (ππ ∗) transition is mainly localized on the “stem” benzene, with a minor stem → cap charge-transfer contribution; the S 0 → S 2 transition is mainly localized on the “cap” benzene. The orbitals, electronic oscillator strengths f el (S 1) and f el (S 2), and transition frequencies depend strongly on the tipping angle ω between the two Bz moieties. The SCS-CC2 calculated S 1 and S 2 excitation energies at different T-shaped, stacked-parallel and parallel-displaced stationary points of the (Bz)2 ground-state surface allow to construct approximate S 1 and S 2 potential energy surfaces and reveal their relation to the “excimer” states at the stacked-parallel geometry. The f el (S 1) and f el (S 2) transition dipole moments at the C 2v -symmetric T-shape, parallel-displaced and stacked-parallel geometries are either zero or ∼10 times smaller than at the tipped T-shaped geometry. This unusual property of the S 0 → S 1 and S 0 → S 2 transition-dipole moment surfaces of (Bz)2 restricts its observation by electronic spectroscopy to the tipped and tilted T-shaped geometries; the other ground-state geometries are impossible or extremely difficult to observe. The S 0 → S 1/S 2 spectra of (Bz)2 are compared to those of imidazole ⋅ (Bz)2, which has a rigid triangular structure with a tilted (Bz)2 subunit. The S 0 → S 1/ S 2 transitions of imidazole-(benzene)2 lie at similar energies as those of (Bz)2, confirming our assignment of the (Bz)2 S 0 → S 2 transition.

Influence of unilateral maxillary first molar extraction treatment on second and third molar inclination in Class II subdivision patients.

OBJECTIVE To assess the maxillary second molar (M2) and third molar (M3) inclination following orthodontic treatment of Class II subdivision malocclusion with unilateral maxillary first molar (M1) extraction. MATERIALS AND METHODS Panoramic radiographs of 21 Class II subdivision adolescents (eight boys, 13 girls; mean age, 12.8 years; standard deviation, 1.7 years) before treatment, after treatment with extraction of one maxillary first molar and Begg appliances and after at least 1.8 years in retention were retrospectively collected from a private practice. M2 and M3 inclination angles (M2/ITP, M2/IOP, M3/ITP, M3/IOP), constructed by intertuberosity (ITP) and interorbital planes (IOP), were calculated for the extracted and nonextracted segments. Random effects regression analysis was performed to evaluate the effect on the molar angulation of extraction, time, and gender after adjusting for baseline measurements. RESULTS Time and extraction status were significant predictors for M2 angulation. M2/ITP and M2/IOP decreased by 4.04 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -6.93, 1.16; P  =  .001) and 3.67 (95% CI: -6.76, -0.58; P  =  .020) in the extraction group compared to the nonextraction group after adjusting for time and gender. The adjusted analysis showed that extraction was the only predictor for M3 angulation that reached statistical significance. M3 mesial inclination increased by 7.38° (95% CI: -11.2, -3.54; P < .001) and 7.33° (95% CI: -11.48, -3.19; P  =  .001). CONCLUSIONS M2 and M3 uprighting significantly improved in the extraction side after orthodontic treatment with unilateral maxillary M1 extraction. There was a significant increase in mesial tipping of maxillary second molar crowns over time.

Policy Advice during a Crisis

Good policy making is an art. It involves a substantial element of personal judgement about risks and consequences of alternative courses of actions and decisions. It is also a science because it requires systematic gathering and analysis of evidence about a policy issue, and rational assessment of costs and benefits of various ways of addressing the issue. However, in a crisis, there is little time to gather evidence or to search for imaginative solutions to a problem. There is a tendency, in such a situation, to act under pressure rather than on the basis of evidence, analysis or informed judgement. Furthermore, a crisis often creates a situation in which policy makers receive all sorts of advice. This note discusses a set of concepts, originating mainly from economics, that can be used to assess soundness of policy and advice, particularly during a crisis. These are concepts of rationality, sustainability, inclusiveness, feasibility, practicality and tipping, which can be used in decision making in normal and crisis times to reduce risks of disastrous advice or policy.

Institutional Infrastructure to Support 'Super Growth' in Kenya: Governance Thresholds, Reversion Rates and Economic Development

Kenya Growth Vision 2030 proposes policy and institutional reforms that make it possible for the country to achieve development status of a middle income country by 2030. This paper outlines the institutional framework necessary to achieve ÈSuper Growth,É which describes the character of growth required to meet targets stipulated in the Vision. The paper provides evidence confirming the importance of improving the quality of governance to the achievement of the Vision. The paper also demonstrates that the country is characterized by a high probability of reverting to poor governance. It is argued that, to achieve super growth, the country must attain an institutional tipping point which associates with low reversion rates to weaker institutions. The paper provides suggestions for institutional reforms that result in the achievement of an institutional tipping point and super growth.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope record of foraminifera of IODP Site 303-1307

A major tipping point of Earth's history occurred during the mid-Pliocene: the onset of major Northern-Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) and of pronounced, Quaternary-style cycles of glacial-to-interglacial climates, that contrast with more uniform climates over most of the preceding Cenozoic and continue until today (Zachos et al., 2001, doi:10.1126/science.1059412). The severe deterioration of climate occurred in three steps between 3.2 Ma (warm MIS K3) and 2.7 Ma (glacial MIS G6/4) (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005, doi:10.1029/2004PA001071). Various models (sensu Driscoll and Haug, 1998, doi:10.1126/science.282.5388.436) and paleoceanographic records (intercalibrated using orbital age control) suggest clear linkages between the onset of NHG and the three steps in the final closure of the Central American Seaways (CAS), deduced from rising salinity differences between Caribbean and the East Pacific. Each closing event led to an enhanced North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and this strengthened the poleward transport of salt and heat (warmings of +2-3°C) (Bartoli et al., 2005, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2005.06.020). Also, the closing resulted in a slight rise in the poleward atmospheric moisture transport to northwestern Eurasia (Lunt et al., 2007, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0265-6), which probably led to an enhanced precipitation and fluvial run-off, lower sea surface salinity (SSS), and an increased sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, hence promoting albedo and the build-up of continental ice sheets. Most important, new evidence shows that the closing of the CAS led to greater steric height of the North Pacific and thus doubled the low-saline Arctic Throughflow from the Bering Strait to the East Greenland Current (EGC). Accordingly, Labrador Sea IODP Site 1307 displays an abrupt but irreversible EGC cooling of 6°C and freshening by ~2 psu from 3.25/3.16-3.00 Ma, right after the first but still reversible attempt of closing the CAS.