Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

Investigation of Field Corrosion Performance and Bond/Development Length of Galvanized Reinforcing Steel, TR-666, 2014

In reinforced concrete systems, ensuring that a good bond between the concrete and the embedded reinforcing steel is critical to long-term structural performance. Without good bond between the two, the system simply cannot behave as intended. The bond strength of reinforcing bars is a complex interaction between localized deformations, chemical adhesion, and other factors. Coating of reinforcing bars, although sometimes debated, has been commonly found to be an effective way to delay the initiation of corrosion in reinforced concrete systems. For many years, the standard practice has been to coat reinforcing steel with an epoxy coating, which provides a barrier between the steel and the corrosive elements of water, air, and chloride ions. Recently, there has been an industry-led effort to use galvanizing to provide the protective barrier commonly provided by traditional epoxy coatings. However, as with any new structural product, questions exist regarding both the structural performance and corrosion resistance of the system. In the fall of 2013, Buchanan County, Iowa constructed a demonstration bridge in which the steel girders and all internal reinforcing steel were galvanized. The work completed in this project sought to understand the structural performance of galvanized reinforcing steel as compared to epoxy-coated steel and to initiate a long-term corrosion monitoring program. This work consisted of a series of controlled laboratory tests and the installation of a corrosion monitoring system that can be observed for years in the future. The results of this work indicate there is no appreciable difference between the bond strength of epoxy-coated reinforcing steel and galvanized reinforcing steel. Although some differences were observed, no notable difference in either peak load, slip, or failure mode could be identified. Additionally, a long-term monitoring system was installed in this Buchanan County bridge and, to date, no corrosion activity has been identified.

The knock-out of ARP3a gene affects F-actin cytoskeleton organization altering cellular tip growth, morphology and development in moss Physcomitrella patens.

The seven subunit Arp2/3 complex is a highly conserved nucleation factor of actin microfilaments. We have isolated the genomic sequence encoding a putative Arp3a protein of the moss Physcomitrella patens. The disruption of this ARP3A gene by allele replacement has generated loss-of-function mutants displaying a complex developmental phenotype. The loss-of function of ARP3A gene results in shortened, almost cubic chloronemal cells displaying affected tip growth and lacking differentiation to caulonemal cells. In moss arp3a mutants, buds differentiate directly from chloronemata to form stunted leafy shoots having differentiated leaves similar to wild type. Yet, rhizoids never differentiate from stem epidermal cells. To characterize the F-actin organization in the arp3a-mutated cells, we disrupted ARP3A gene in the previously described HGT1 strain expressing conditionally the GFP-talin marker. In vivo observation of the F-actin cytoskeleton during P. patens development demonstrated that loss-of-function of Arp3a is associated with the disappearance of specific F-actin cortical structures associated with the establishment of localized cellular growth domains. Finally, we show that constitutive expression of the P. patens Arp3a and its Arabidopsis thaliana orthologs efficiently complement the mutated phenotype indicating a high degree of evolutionary conservation of the Arp3 function in land plants.

Estimation of forest canopy cover : a comparison of field measurement techniques

Abstract

An Empirical Study on Faculty Perceptions and Teaching Practices of Wikipedia

Some faculty members from different universities around the world have begun to use Wikipedia as a teaching tool in recent years. These experiences show, in most cases, very satisfactory results and a substantial improvement in various basic skills, as well as a positive influence on the students' motivation. Nevertheless and despite the growing importance of e-learning methodologies based on the use of the Internet for higher education, the use of Wikipedia as a teaching resource remains scarce among university faculty.Our investigation tries to identify which are the main factors that determine acceptance or resistance to that use. We approach the decision to use Wikipedia as a teaching tool by analyzing both the individual attributes of faculty members and the characteristics of the environment where they develop their teaching activity. From a specific survey sent to all faculty of the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC), pioneer and leader in online education in Spain, we have tried to infer the influence of these internal and external elements. The questionnaire was designed to measure different constructs: perceived quality of Wikipedia, teaching practices involving Wikipedia, use experience, perceived usefulness and use of 2.0 tools. Control items were also included for gathering information on gender, age, teaching experience, academic rank, and area of expertise.Our results reveal that academic rank, teaching experience, age or gender, are not decisive factors in explaining the educational use of Wikipedia. Instead, the decision to use it is closely linked to the perception of Wikipedia's quality, the use of other collaborative learning tools, an active attitude towards web 2.0 applications, and connections with the professional non-academic world. Situational context is also very important, since the use is higher when faculty members have got reference models in their close environment and when they perceive it is positively valued by their colleagues. As far as these attitudes, practices and cultural norms diverge in different scientific disciplines, we have also detected clear differences in the use of Wikipedia among areas of academic expertise. As a consequence, a greater application of Wikipedia both as a teaching resource and as a driver for teaching innovation would require much more active institutional policies and some changes in the dominant academic culture among faculty members.

Ingénieur pédagogique et démarche projet : facteurs clés de succès pour l'intégration des technologies dans la pratique enseignante?

Résumé: Les gouvernements des pays occidentaux ont dépensé des sommes importantes pour faciliter l'intégration des technologies de l'information et de la communication dans l'enseignement espérant trouver une solution économique à l'épineuse équation que l'on pourrait résumer par la célèbre formule " faire plus et mieux avec moins ". Cependant force est de constater que, malgré ces efforts et la très nette amélioration de la qualité de service des infrastructures, cet objectif est loin d'être atteint. Si nous pensons qu'il est illusoire d'attendre et d'espérer que la technologie peut et va, à elle seule, résoudre les problèmes de qualité de l'enseignement, nous croyons néanmoins qu'elle peut contribuer à améliorer les conditions d'apprentissage et participer de la réflexion pédagogique que tout enseignant devrait conduire avant de dispenser ses enseignements. Dans cette optique, et convaincu que la formation à distance offre des avantages non négligeables à condition de penser " autrement " l'enseignement, nous nous sommes intéressé à la problématique du développement de ce type d'applications qui se situent à la frontière entre les sciences didactiques, les sciences cognitives, et l'informatique. Ainsi, et afin de proposer une solution réaliste et simple permettant de faciliter le développement, la mise-à-jour, l'insertion et la pérennisation des applications de formation à distance, nous nous sommes impliqué dans des projets concrets. Au fil de notre expérience de terrain nous avons fait le constat que (i)la qualité des modules de formation flexible et à distance reste encore très décevante, entre autres parce que la valeur ajoutée que peut apporter l'utilisation des technologies n'est, à notre avis, pas suffisamment exploitée et que (ii)pour réussir tout projet doit, outre le fait d'apporter une réponse utile à un besoin réel, être conduit efficacement avec le soutien d'un " champion ". Dans l'idée de proposer une démarche de gestion de projet adaptée aux besoins de la formation flexible et à distance, nous nous sommes tout d'abord penché sur les caractéristiques de ce type de projet. Nous avons ensuite analysé les méthodologies de projet existantes dans l'espoir de pouvoir utiliser l'une, l'autre ou un panachage adéquat de celles qui seraient les plus proches de nos besoins. Nous avons ensuite, de manière empirique et par itérations successives, défini une démarche pragmatique de gestion de projet et contribué à l'élaboration de fiches d'aide à la décision facilitant sa mise en oeuvre. Nous décrivons certains de ses acteurs en insistant particulièrement sur l'ingénieur pédagogique que nous considérons comme l'un des facteurs clé de succès de notre démarche et dont la vocation est de l'orchestrer. Enfin, nous avons validé a posteriori notre démarche en revenant sur le déroulement de quatre projets de FFD auxquels nous avons participé et qui sont représentatifs des projets que l'on peut rencontrer dans le milieu universitaire. En conclusion nous pensons que la mise en oeuvre de notre démarche, accompagnée de la mise à disposition de fiches d'aide à la décision informatisées, constitue un atout important et devrait permettre notamment de mesurer plus aisément les impacts réels des technologies (i) sur l'évolution de la pratique des enseignants, (ii) sur l'organisation et (iii) sur la qualité de l'enseignement. Notre démarche peut aussi servir de tremplin à la mise en place d'une démarche qualité propre à la FFD. D'autres recherches liées à la réelle flexibilisation des apprentissages et aux apports des technologies pour les apprenants pourront alors être conduites sur la base de métriques qui restent à définir. Abstract: Western countries have spent substantial amount of monies to facilitate the integration of the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) into Education hoping to find a solution to the touchy equation that can be summarized by the famous statement "do more and better with less". Despite these efforts, and notwithstanding the real improvements due to the undeniable betterment of the infrastructure and of the quality of service, this goal is far from reached. Although we think it illusive to expect technology, all by itself, to solve our economical and educational problems, we firmly take the view that it can greatly contribute not only to ameliorate learning conditions but participate to rethinking the pedagogical approach as well. Every member of our community could hence take advantage of this opportunity to reflect upon his or her strategy. In this framework, and convinced that integrating ICT into education opens a number of very interesting avenues provided we think teaching "out of the box", we got ourself interested in courseware development positioned at the intersection of didactics and pedagogical sciences, cognitive sciences and computing. Hence, and hoping to bring a realistic and simple solution that could help develop, update, integrate and sustain courseware we got involved in concrete projects. As ze gained field experience we noticed that (i)The quality of courseware is still disappointing, amongst others, because the added value that the technology can bring is not made the most of, as it could or should be and (ii)A project requires, besides bringing a useful answer to a real problem, to be efficiently managed and be "championed". Having in mind to propose a pragmatic and practical project management approach we first looked into open and distance learning characteristics. We then analyzed existing methodologies in the hope of being able to utilize one or the other or a combination to best fit our needs. In an empiric manner and proceeding by successive iterations and refinements, we defined a simple methodology and contributed to build descriptive "cards" attached to each of its phases to help decision making. We describe the different actors involved in the process insisting specifically on the pedagogical engineer, viewed as an orchestra conductor, whom we consider to be critical to ensure the success of our approach. Last but not least, we have validated a posteriori our methodology by reviewing four of the projects we participated to and that we think emblematic of the university reality. We believe that the implementation of our methodology, along with the availability of computerized cards to help project managers to take decisions, could constitute a great asset and contribute to measure the technologies' real impacts on (i) the evolution of teaching practices (ii) the organization and (iii) the quality of pedagogical approaches. Our methodology could hence be of use to help put in place an open and distance learning quality assessment. Research on the impact of technologies to learning adaptability and flexibilization could rely on adequate metrics.

Teaching fundamentals of computing theory: a constructivist approach

A Fundamentals of Computing Theory course involves different topics that are core to the Computer Science curricula and whose level of abstraction makes them difficult both to teach and to learn. Such difficulty stems from the complexity of the abstract notions involved and the required mathematical background. Surveys conducted among our students showed that many of them were applying some theoretical concepts mechanically rather than developing significant learning. This paper shows a number of didactic strategies that we introduced in the Fundamentals of Computing Theory curricula to cope with the above problem. The proposed strategies were based on a stronger use of technology and a constructivist approach. The final goal was to promote more significant learning of the course topics.

Versatility of field theory motivated nuclear effective Lagrangian approach

We analyze the results for infinite nuclear and neutron matter using the standard relativistic mean field model and its recent effective field theory motivated generalization. For the first time, we show quantitatively that the inclusion in the effective theory of vector meson self-interactions and scalar-vector cross-interactions explains naturally the recent experimental observations of the softness of the nuclear equation of state, without losing the advantages of the standard relativistic model for finite nuclei.

Aetiologies of pulseless electrical activity in out-of-hospital cardiac arrests:A retrospective study and analysis of specific causes

Background: Pulseless electrical activity (PEA) cardiac arrest is defined as a cardiac arrest (CA) presenting with a residual organized electrical activity on the electrocardiogram. In the last decades, the incidence of PEA has regularly increased, compared to other types of CA like ventricular fibrillation or pulseless ventricular tachycardia. PEA is frequently induced by reversible conditions. The "4 (or 5) H" & "4 (or 5) T" are proposed as a mnemonic to asses for Hypoxia, Hypovolemia, Hypo- /Hyperkalaemia, Hypothermia, Thrombosis (cardiac or pulmonary), cardiac Tamponade, Toxins, and Tension pneumothorax. Other pathologies (intracranial haemorrhage, severe sepsis, myocardial contraction dysfunction) have been identified as potential causes for PEA, but their respective probability and frequencies are unclear and they are not yet included into the resuscitation guidelines. The aim of this study was to analyse the aetiologies of PEA out-of-hospital CA, in order to evaluate the relative frequencies of each cause and therefore to improve the management of patients suffering a PEA cardiac arrest. Method: This retrospective study was based on data routinely and prospectively collected for each PEMS intervention. All adult patients treated from January 1st 2002 to December 2012 31st by the PEMS for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, with PEA as the first recorded rhythm, and admitted to the emergency department (ED) of the Lausanne University Hospital were included. The aetiologies of PEA cardiac arrest were classified into subgroups, based on the classical H&T's classification, supplemented by four other subgroups analysis: trauma, intra-cranial haemorrhage (ICH), non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NIC) and undetermined cause. Results: 1866 OHCA were treated by the PEMS. PEA was the first recorded rhythm in 240 adult patients (13.8 %). After exclusion of 96 patients, 144 patients with a PEA cardiac arrest admitted to the ED were included in the analysis. The mean age was 63.8 ± 20.0 years, 58.3% were men and the survival rate at 48 hours was 29%. 32 different causes of OHCA PEA were established for 119 patients. For 25 patients (17.4 %), we were unable to attribute a specific cause for the PEA cardiac arrest. Hypoxia (23.6 %), acute coronary syndrome (12.5%) and trauma (12.5 %) were the three most frequent causes. Pulmonary embolism, Hypovolemia, Intoxication and Hyperkaliemia occurs in less than 10% of the cases (7.6 %, 5.6 %, 3.5%, respectively 2.1 %). Non ischemic cardiomyopathy and intra-cranial haemorrhage occur in 8.3 % and 6.9 %, respectively. Conclusions: According to our results, intra-cranial haemorrhage and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy represent noticeable causes of PEA in OHCA, with a prevalence equalling or exceeding the frequency of classical 4 H's and 4 T's aetiologies. These two pathologies are potentially accessible to simple diagnostic procedures (native CT-scan or echocardiography) and should be included into the 4 H's and 4 T's mnemonic.

Validation of plant dynamic model by online and laboratory measurements – a tool to predict online COD loads out of production of mechanical printing papers

COD discharges out of processes have increased in line with elevating brightness demands for mechanical pulp and papers. The share of lignin-like substances in COD discharges is on average 75%. In this thesis, a plant dynamic model was created and validated as a means to predict COD loading and discharges out of a mill. The assays were carried out in one paper mill integrate producing mechanical printing papers. The objective in the modeling of plant dynamics was to predict day averages of COD load and discharges out of mills. This means that online data, like 1) the level of large storage towers of pulp and white water 2) pulp dosages, 3) production rates and 4) internal white water flows and discharges were used to create transients into the balances of solids and white water, referred to as “plant dynamics”. A conversion coefficient was verified between TOC and COD. The conversion coefficient was used for predicting the flows from TOC to COD to the waste water treatment plant. The COD load was modeled with similar uncertainty as in reference TOC sampling. The water balance of waste water treatment was validated by the reference concentration of COD. The difference of COD predictions against references was within the same deviation of TOC-predictions. The modeled yield losses and retention values of TOC in pulping and bleaching processes and the modeled fixing of colloidal TOC to solids between the pulping plant and the aeration basin in the waste water treatment plant were similar to references presented in literature. The valid water balances of the waste water treatment plant and the reduction model of lignin-like substances produced a valid prediction of COD discharges out of the mill. A 30% increase in the release of lignin-like substances in the form of production problems was observed in pulping and bleaching processes. The same increase was observed in COD discharges out of waste water treatment. In the prediction of annual COD discharge, it was noticed that the reduction of lignin has a wide deviation from year to year and from one mill to another. This made it difficult to compare the parameters of COD discharges validated in plant dynamic simulation with another mill producing mechanical printing papers. However, a trend of moving from unbleached towards high-brightness TMP in COD discharges was valid.