A Reliability Assessment Approach for the Urban Energy System and Its Application in Energy Hub Planning

With the increasing utilization of combined heat and power plants (CHP), electrical, gas, and thermal systems are becoming tightly integrated in the urban energy system (UES). However, the three systems are usually planned and operated separately, ignoring their interactions and coordination. To address this issue, the coupling point of different systems in the UES is described by the energy hub model. With this model, an integrated load curtailment method is proposed for the UES. Then a Monte Carlo simulation based approach is developed to assess the reliability of coordinated energy supply systems. Based on this approach, a reliability-optimal energy hub planning method is proposed to accommodate higher renewable energy penetration. Numerical studies indicate that the proposed approach is able to quantify the UES reliability with different structures. Also, optimal energy hub planning scheme can be determined to ensure the reliability of the UES with high renewable penetration.

An Extended Pearson System Useful In Reliability Analysis

In the present environment, industry should provide the products of high quality. Quality of products is judged by the period of time they can successfully perform their intended functions without failure. The cause of the failures can be ascertained through life testing experiments and the times to failure due to different cause are likely to follow different distributions. Knowledge of this distribution is essential to eliminate causes of failures and thereby to improve the quality and the reliability of products. The main accomplishment expected to the study is to develop statistical tools that could facilitate solution to lifetime data arising in such and similar contexts

Production and Delivery (Optimization of production system and reliability)

This thesis is done to solve two issues for Sayid Paper Mill Ltd Pakistan. Section one deals with a practical problem arise in SPM that is cutting a given set of raw paper rolls of known length and width, and a set of product paper rolls of known length (equal to the length of raw paper rolls) and width, practical cutting constraints on a single cutting machine, according to demand orders for all customers. To solve this problem requires to determine an optimal cutting schedule to maximize the overall cutting process profitability while satisfying all demands and cutting constraints. The aim of this part of thesis is to develop a mathematical model which solves this problem.Second section deals with a problem of delivering final product from warehouse to different destinations by finding shortest paths. It is an operational routing problem to decide the daily routes for sending trucks to different destination to deliver their final product. This industrial problem is difficult and includes aspect such as delivery to a single destination and multiple destinations with limited resources. The aim of this part of thesis is to develop a process which helps finding shortest path.

INVENTORY CONTROL SYSTEM : Optimization of production system and reliability

The main idea of this research to solve the problem of inventory management for the paper industry SPM PVT limited. The aim of this research was to find a methodology by which the inventory of raw material could be kept at minimum level by means of buffer stock level.The main objective then lies in finding the minimum level of buffer stock according to daily consumption of raw material, finding the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) reorders point and how much order will be placed in a year to control the shortage of raw material.In this project, we discuss continuous review model (Deterministic EOQ models) that includes the probabilistic demand directly in the formulation. According to the formula, we see the reorder point and the order up to model. The problem was tackled mathematically as well as simulation modeling was used where mathematically tractable solution was not possible.The simulation modeling was done by Awesim software for developing the simulation network. This simulation network has the ability to predict the buffer stock level based on variable consumption of raw material and lead-time. The data collection for this simulation network is taken from the industrial engineering personnel and the departmental studies of the concerned factory. At the end, we find the optimum level of order quantity, reorder point and order days.

Validity and reliability of a voice-recognition game analysis system for field sports

The purpose of this study was to assess the ability of observers to use voice-recognition analysis to accurately classify gait transitions and quantify gait durations typical of team games. Inter-rater and intra-rater reliability was also determined. Four males were filmed performing pre-determined gait protocols, each comprising different sequences of walking, jogging. running and sprinting. Two operators independently classified gait transitions and the time spent in each gait was determined by the voice recognition system. All gait modes as measured by trained observers demonstrated statistically significant correlations (p<O.O I) to predetermined measurement criteria. The mean absolute error for all gait transitions was less than half a second (0.32-0.36 5) with the maximum percentage error being approximately 4% for the walk, jog and run gaits and 10% for sprinting. Gait classification error was low at 1-9%. The intra-rater and inter-rater reliability was consistently high ranging from r =' 0.87 to 0.99. In conclusion, observers using voice-recognition software provided valid measures of time spent in each of the four gait categories with 90% or better accuracy achieved.

Reliability and validity of the system for observing children's activity and relationships during play (SOCARP)

Background: Children frequently engage in diverse activities that are broadly defined as play, but little research has documented children’s activity levels during play and how they are influenced by social contexts. Assessing potentially modifiable conditions that influence play behavior is needed to design optimal physical activity interventions.

Methods: System for Observing Children’s Activity and Relationships during Play (SOCARP) was developed to simultaneously assess children’s physical activity, social group sizes, activity type, and social behavior during play. One hundred and fourteen children (48 boys, 66 girls; 42% overweight) from 8 elementary schools were observed during recess over 24 days, with 12 days videotaped for reliability purposes. Ninety-nine children wore a uni-axial accelerometer during their observation period.

Results: Estimated energy expenditure rates from SOCARP observations and mean accelerometer counts were significantly correlated (r = .67; P < .01), and interobserver reliabilities (ie, percentage agreement) for activity level (89%), group size (88%), activity type (90%) and interactions (88%) met acceptable criteria. Both physical activity and social interactions were influenced by group size, activity type, and child gender and body weight status.

Conclusions: SOCARP is a valid and reliable observation system for assessing physical activity and play behavior in a recess context.

Reliability of a gymnastics vaulting feedback system

The current study assessed the intra- and inter-day reliability of a custom-built gymnastics vaulting feedback system. The system is a coach-friendly customized infra-red timing gate and contact timing mat system operated by the coach to augment the feedback provided to gymnasts on their vaulting performance during regular training practice. Thirteen Australian high performance gymnasts (eight males and five females) aged 11-23 years were assessed during two training sessions (Day 1 and Day 2) at their regular training centre. The approach velocity and board contact time measures were found to be reliable measures during vault training, with measures of pre-flight and table contact time less consistent. Future research should examine the validity of these measures as a tool for monitoring vault training.

Ottimizzazione di un sistema di tracciabilità a supporto della reliability system engineering per un produttore di beni strumentali: il caso Sacmi

Questa tesi di laurea è stata redatta presso l’azienda Sacmi Imola S.C. ed in particolare all’interno della divisione Closures, che si occupa della progettazione e della realizzazione di linee per la produzione di varie tipologie di capsule. Lo scopo dell’elaborato è descrivere lo sviluppo di un sistema di tracciabilità di prodotto; sistemi di questo tipo, adottati inizialmente nel settore alimentare, stanno acquisendo sempre maggiore importanza anche in altri campi produttivi, poiché rivestono un ruolo strategico al fine della realizzazione di prodotti caratterizzati da livelli elevati di performance e di qualità, capaci di emergere nel mercato moderno caratterizzato da una concorrenza estesa a livello mondiale e molto attento alle esigenze dei clienti. Nel caso specifico di Sacmi il sistema di tracciabilità si rivolge ad una pressa, la CCM (Continuous Compression Moulder), realizzata dall’azienda per la produzione di capsule in materiale termoplastico tramite la tecnologia dello stampaggio a compressione. In particolare il sistema si concentra sugli stampi della macchina CCM, i quali ne rappresentano gli elementi critici dal punto di vista sia tecnico che economico. A livello generale, un sistema di tracciabilità è costituito da due componenti fondamentali: il primo è un sistema di identificazione che permetta di rendere distinguibili ed individuabili le unità da tracciare, mentre il secondo è un sistema di raccolta dati in grado di raccogliere le informazioni desiderate. Queste sono poi archiviate in un apposito database ed attribuite alle entità corrispondenti sfruttando le proprietà del sistema di identificazione. Il primo passo da compiere quando si intende sviluppare un sistema di tracciabilità all’interno di un contesto produttivo già consolidato è la ricostruzione del processo produttivo presente in azienda: si tratta di individuare tutti gli enti aziendali che concorrono al processo e che saranno interessati dall’introduzione del nuovo sistema. Una volta definiti gli attori, è necessario anche capire come questi siano collegati dai flussi di materiale e di informazioni. Il processo produttivo di Sacmi era caratterizzato dalla quasi totale assenza di un flusso strutturato di informazioni a supporto di quello di materiale, ed il sistema di tracciabilità ha provveduto a colmare proprio questa mancanza. Il sistema deve essere in grado di integrarsi perfettamente nel contesto produttivo aziendale: è necessario trovare il giusto compromesso per quanto riguarda la quantità di informazioni da raccogliere, che devono garantire una corretta copertura di tutto il processo senza però appesantirlo eccessivamente. E’ bene che la raccolta dati sia basata su procedure standard che assicurino la ripetibilità delle operazioni di prelievo delle informazioni. Come è logico immaginarsi, l’introduzione di numerose novità nell’ambito di un contesto già strutturato ha fatto emergere un certo numero di problematiche, come ad esempio difficoltà nello stoccaggio e ritardi di produzione; queste devono essere risolte chiedendo uno sforzo aggiuntivo agli enti interessati o, nel medio/lungo periodo, evolvendo ed affinando il sistema con soluzioni più snelle.

Inter- and intraobserver reliability of the COFAS end-stage ankle arthritis classification system

End-stage ankle arthritis should have an appropriate classification to assist surgeons in the management of end-stage ankle arthritis. Outcomes research also requires a classification system to stratify patients appropriately.

Hip Osteoarthritis MRI Scoring System (HOAMS): reliability and associations with radiographic and clinical findings

To develop a semiquantitative MRI-based scoring system (HOAMS) of hip osteoarthritis (OA) and test its reliability and validity.

The postoperative COFAS end-stage ankle arthritis classification system: interobserver and intraobserver reliability

End-stage ankle arthritis is operatively treated with numerous designs of total ankle replacement and different techniques for ankle fusion. For superior comparison of these procedures, outcome research requires a classification system to stratify patients appropriately. A postoperative 4-type classification system was designed by 6 fellowship-trained foot and ankle surgeons. Four surgeons reviewed blinded patient profiles and radiographs on 2 occasions to determine the interobserver and intraobserver reliability of the classification. Excellent interobserver reliability (κ = .89) and intraobserver reproducibility (κ = .87) were demonstrated for the postoperative classification system. In conclusion, the postoperative Canadian Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society (COFAS) end-stage ankle arthritis classification system appears to be a valid tool to evaluate the outcome of patients operated for end-stage ankle arthritis.

Reliability of evaluations for the choice of system solutions at the example of automated order-picking systems for bagged goods

There is a steadily increasing pressure on cost-savings and productivity growth in sectors of order-picking such that the wish for rationalization by automation is rising. Special problems are faced trying to automatize handling operations of order-picking articles packed in bags. The mechanical properties of the objects and their hard-to-predict shape and position represent obstacles and are complicating handling operations. A systematic approach in system design is required. This article deals with the properties of such products under aspects of difficulties arising in automated handling and points out a useful system development methodology.

Incorporating reliability measurements into the predictions of a recommender system

In this paper we introduce the idea of using a reliability measure associated to the predic- tions made by recommender systems based on collaborative filtering. This reliability mea- sure is based on the usual notion that the more reliable a prediction, the less liable to be wrong. Here we will define a general reliability measure suitable for any arbitrary recom- mender system. We will also show a method for obtaining specific reliability measures specially fitting the needs of different specific recommender systems.