A Reliability Assessment Approach for the Urban Energy System and Its Application in Energy Hub Planning

With the increasing utilization of combined heat and power plants (CHP), electrical, gas, and thermal systems are becoming tightly integrated in the urban energy system (UES). However, the three systems are usually planned and operated separately, ignoring their interactions and coordination. To address this issue, the coupling point of different systems in the UES is described by the energy hub model. With this model, an integrated load curtailment method is proposed for the UES. Then a Monte Carlo simulation based approach is developed to assess the reliability of coordinated energy supply systems. Based on this approach, a reliability-optimal energy hub planning method is proposed to accommodate higher renewable energy penetration. Numerical studies indicate that the proposed approach is able to quantify the UES reliability with different structures. Also, optimal energy hub planning scheme can be determined to ensure the reliability of the UES with high renewable penetration.