Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

A method of weighting indicators in building energy efficiency assessment

This paper identifies the indicators of energy efficiency assessment in residential building in China through a wide literature review. Indicators are derived from three main sources: 1) The existing building assessment methods; 2)The existing Chinese standards and technology codes in building energy efficiency; 3)Academia research. As a result, we proposed an indicator list by refining the indicators in the above sources. Identified indicators are weighted by the group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Group AHP method is implemented following key steps: Step 1: Experienced experts are selected to form a group; Step 2: A survey is implemented to collect the individual judgments on the importance of indicators in the group; Step 3: Members’ judgments are synthesized to the group judgments; Step 4: Indicators are weighted by AHP on the group judgments; Step 5: Investigation of consistency estimation shows that the consistency of the judgment matrix is accepted. We believe that the weighted indicators in this paper will provide important references to building energy efficiency assessment.

A survey of gradual solar energetic particle events

We develop a database of 110 gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events, over the period 1967–2006, providing estimates of event onset, duration, fluence, and peak flux for protons of energy E > 60 MeV. The database is established mainly from the energetic proton flux data distributed in the OMNI 2 data set; however, we also utilize the McMurdo neutron monitor and the energetic proton flux from GOES missions. To aid the development of the gradual SEP database, we establish a method with which the homogeneity of the energetic proton flux record is improved. A comparison between other SEP databases and the database developed here is presented which discusses the different algorithms used to define an event. Furthermore, we investigate the variation of gradual SEP occurrence and fluence with solar cycle phase, sunspot number (SSN), and interplanetary magnetic field intensity (Bmag) over solar cycles 20–23. We find that the occurrence and fluence of SEP events vary with the solar cycle phase. Correspondingly, we find a positive correlation between SEP occurrence and solar activity as determined by SSN and Bmag, while the mean fluence in individual events decreases with the same measures of solar activity. Therefore, although the number of events decreases when solar activity is low, the events that do occur at such times have higher fluence. Thus, large events such as the “Carrington flare” may be more likely at lower levels of solar activity. These results are discussed in the context of other similar investigations.

A method for the economic valuation of animal welfare benefits using a single welfare score

Unless the benefits to society of measures to protect and improve the welfare of animals are made transparent by means of their valuation they are likely to go unrecognised and cannot easily be weighed against the costs of such measures as required, for example, by policy-makers. A simple single measure scoring system, based on the Welfare Quality® index, is used, together with a choice experiment economic valuation method, to estimate the value that people place on improvements to the welfare of different farm animal species measured on a continuous (0-100) scale. Results from using the method on a survey sample of some 300 people show that it is able to elicit apparently credible values. The survey found that 96% of respondents thought that we have a moral obligation to safeguard the welfare of animals and that over 72% were concerned about the way farm animals are treated. Estimated mean annual willingness to pay for meat from animals with improved welfare of just one point on the scale was £5.24 for beef cattle, £4.57 for pigs and £5.10 for meat chickens. Further development of the method is required to capture the total economic value of animal welfare benefits. Despite this, the method is considered a practical means for obtaining economic values that can be used in the cost-benefit appraisal of policy measures intended to improve the welfare of animals.

Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

Changes in the distribution of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in urban areas in Great Britain: findings and limitations of a media-driven nationwide survey

Urbanization is one of the major forms of habitat alteration occurring at the present time. Although this is typically deleterious to biodiversity, some species flourish within these human-modified landscapes, potentially leading to negative and/or positive interactions between people and wildlife. Hence, up-to-date assessment of urban wildlife populations is important for developing appropriate management strategies. Surveying urban wildlife is limited by land partition and private ownership, rendering many common survey techniques difficult. Garnering public involvement is one solution, but this method is constrained by the inherent biases of non-standardised survey effort associated with voluntary participation. We used a television-led media approach to solicit national participation in an online sightings survey to investigate changes in the distribution of urban foxes in Great Britain and to explore relationships between urban features and fox occurrence and sightings density. Our results show that media-based approaches can generate a large national database on the current distribution of a recognisable species. Fox distribution in England and Wales has changed markedly within the last 25 years, with sightings submitted from 91% of urban areas previously predicted to support few or no foxes. Data were highly skewed with 90% of urban areas having <30 fox sightings per 1000 people km-2. The extent of total urban area was the only variable with a significant impact on both fox occurrence and sightings density in urban areas; longitude and percentage of public green urban space were respectively, significantly positively and negatively associated with sightings density only. Latitude, and distance to nearest neighbouring conurbation had no impact on either occurrence or sightings density. Given the limitations associated with this method, further investigations are needed to determine the association between sightings density and actual fox density, and variability of fox density within and between urban areas in Britain.

Socio-economic variables influence the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake in Brazilian adolescents: results from a population-based survey

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake among adolescents and the association between socio-economic variables and nutritional status. Design: Cross-sectional study with a population-based sample. Settings: The usual nutrient intake distribution was estimated using the Iowa State University method. The Estimated Average Requirement cut-off point method was used to determine the proportion of adolescents with inadequate intake for each nutrient, according to sex, income, parental educational level and nutritional status. Subjects: Twenty-four-hour dietary recalls were applied in 525 male and female Brazilian adolescents aged 14-18 years. Results: The highest prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake was observed for vitamin E (99% in both sexes). For male and female adolescents, the prevalence of inadequate intake was: Mg, 89% and 84%; vitamin A, 78% and 71 %; vitamin C, 79% and 53%; and vitamin B(6), 21% and 33%, respectively. The prevalence of inadequate intake for niacin, thiamin, riboflavin, Se, Cu and vitamin B(12) was <15 %. Individuals in the lower income and lower parental educational level strata had the highest risk of having inadequate intake for P, riboflavin and vitamins A, B(6) and B(12). Compared with non-overweight individuals, overweight individuals had a higher risk of inadequate intake for Mg, vitamin A, P, thiamin and riboflavin. Conclusions: The present study found a high prevalence of inadequate intake of nutrients that are recognised as being protective against chronic diseases. Adolescents in the lower income and lower parental educational level strata were less likely to have their nutrient intake requirements met.

A Survey on Graphical Methods for Classification Predictive Performance Evaluation

Predictive performance evaluation is a fundamental issue in design, development, and deployment of classification systems. As predictive performance evaluation is a multidimensional problem, single scalar summaries such as error rate, although quite convenient due to its simplicity, can seldom evaluate all the aspects that a complete and reliable evaluation must consider. Due to this, various graphical performance evaluation methods are increasingly drawing the attention of machine learning, data mining, and pattern recognition communities. The main advantage of these types of methods resides in their ability to depict the trade-offs between evaluation aspects in a multidimensional space rather than reducing these aspects to an arbitrarily chosen (and often biased) single scalar measure. Furthermore, to appropriately select a suitable graphical method for a given task, it is crucial to identify its strengths and weaknesses. This paper surveys various graphical methods often used for predictive performance evaluation. By presenting these methods in the same framework, we hope this paper may shed some light on deciding which methods are more suitable to use in different situations.

Household survey of hepatitis B vaccine coverage among Brazilian children

We conducted a multi-stage household cluster survey to calculate hepatitis B vaccine coverage among children 18-30 months of age in 27 Brazilian cities. Hepatitis B vaccine is administered at birth, 1 month and 6 months of age by Brazil`s national immunization program. Among 17,749 children surveyed, 40.2% received a birth dose within one day of birth, 94.8% received at least one dose of hepatitis B vaccine, and 86.7% completed the three-dose series by 12 months of age. Increased coverage with the birth dose and administration of hepatitis B in combination with diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-Haemophilus influenzae type b antigens could improve protection against hepatitis B. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the statistical estimation of diffusion processes: a survey

Data available on continuos-time diffusions are always sampled discretely in time. In most cases, the likelihood function of the observations is not directly computable. This survey covers a sample of the statistical methods that have been developed to solve this problem. We concentrate on some recent contributions to the literature based on three di§erent approaches to the problem: an improvement of the Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme, the use of Martingale Estimating Functions and the application of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).

On the statistical estimation of diffusion processes - a partial survey

Data available on continuous-time diffusions are always sampled discretely in time. In most cases, the likelihood function of the observations is not directly computable. This survey covers a sample of the statistical methods that have been developed to solve this problem. We concentrate on some recent contributions to the literature based on three di§erent approaches to the problem: an improvement of the Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme, the employment of Martingale Estimating Functions, and the application of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).

Cultura organizacional orientada à qualidade: um survey nas concessionárias automotivas brasileiras certificadas com a ISO 9001

The study aims identify the existence of quality culture in Brazilian automotive dealerships with ISO 9001, motivated by this research problem: exist a quality culture in this dealerships, which facilitates the adoption of quality practices supported by ISO 9001? For referencing, the theoretical review was written in five themes: organizational culture, quality culture, total quality management, ISO 9001 quality management system and the Brazilian automobile industry. As regards the methodological aspects, the research has an applied nature, with a quantitative approach, being exploratory in their objectives, and bibliographic, documental and survey as technical procedures. The organizations participating in the study were all Brazilian automotive dealerships certified with ISO 9001. The research intended cover all the 80 active dealers with ISO 9001 certification identified by the Brazilian Committee for Quality (ABNT CB-25). The survey recorded participation of 32 companies (response rate 40%). The questionnaire was sent to seller managers, formatted into five sections: 1) introductory message 2) manager profile, 3) reasons for implementation and benefits generated by ISO 4) adoption levels of quality practices and 5) diagnosis of organizational culture. The questions contained in sections 2 and 3 were structured in multiple choice, and in the remaining sections were structured in Likert 5-point scale. The statistical method used (data analysis), was the descriptive statistics, for data representation in frequency percentage (FP) and standard level (SL). The results showed that the interviewed dealerships have an organizational culture with very high levels of prevalence in "outcome orientation" and "attention to detail" cultural dimensions. In addition, about the other two dimensions considered conducive to quality (innovation and teamwork/respect for people), both observed high prevalence. Based on the present results, concluded that the organizational culture of Brazilian dealerships with ISO 9001 are quality oriented, being conducive to adoption of quality practices supported by TQM Systems. However, it is important to mention that the quality culture identified is not sufficiently developed to adopt quality practices at optimal levels, which sets up an unfavorable scenario to deals with highly rigorous customer

Obsessive-compulsive disorder: Prevalence, comorbidity, impact, and help-seeking in the British National Psychiatric Morbidity Survey of 2000

Objective: There is little information about obsessive-compulsive disorder in large representative community samples. The authors aimed to establish obsessive-compulsive disorder prevalence and its clinical typology among adults in private households in Great Britain and to obtain generalizable estimates of impairment and help-seeking.Method: Data from the British National Psychiatric Morbidity Survey of 2000, comprising 8,580 individuals, were analyzed using appropriate measurements. The study compared individuals with obsessive-compulsive disorder, individuals with other neurotic disorders, and a nonneurotic comparison group. ICD-10 diagnoses were derived from the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised.Results: the authors identified 114 individuals (74 women, 40 men) with obsessive-compulsive disorder, with a weighted 1-month prevalence of 1.1%. Most individuals (55%) in the obsessive-compulsive group had obsessions only. Comorbidity occurred in 62% of these individuals, which was significantly greater than the group with other neuroses (10%). Co-occurring neuroses were depressive episode (37%), generalized anxiety disorder (31%), agoraphobia or panic disorder (22%), social phobia (17%), and specific phobia (15%). Alcohol dependence was present in 20% of participants, mainly men, and drug dependence was present in 13%. Obsessive-compulsive disorder, compared with other neurotic disorders, was associated with more marked social and occupational impairment. One-quarter of obsessive-compulsive disorder participants had previously attempted suicide. Individuals with pure and comorbid obsessive-compulsive disorder did not differ according to most indices of impairment, including suicidal behavior, but pure individuals were significantly less likely to have sought help (14% versus 56%).Conclusions: A rare yet severe mental disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder is an atypical neurosis, of which the public health significance has been underestimated. Unmet need among individuals with pure obsessive-compulsive disorder is a cause for concern, requiring further investigation of barriers to care and interventions to encourage help-seeking.

Alcohol screening instruments in elderly male: a population-based survey in metropolitan São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)