Project management under uncertainty

Morris' (1986) analysis of the factors affecting project success and failure is considered in relation to the psychology of judgement under uncertainty. A model is proposed whereby project managers may identify the specific circumstances in which human decision-making is prone to systematic error, and hence may apply a number of de-biasing techniques.

Segmental torso masses and coronal plane joint torques in the adolescent scoliotic spine

Introduction. Calculating segmental (vertebral level-by-level) torso masses in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine during relaxed standing to be determined. This study used CT scans of AIS patients to measure segmental torso masses and explores how joint moments in the coronal plane are affected by changes in the position of the intervertebral joint’s axis of rotation; particularly at the apex of a scoliotic major curve. Methods. Existing low dose CT data from the Paediatric Spine Research Group was used to calculate vertebral level-by-level torso masses and joint torques occurring in the spine for a group of 20 female AIS patients (mean age 15.0 ± 2.7 years, mean Cobb angle 53 ± 7.1°). Image processing software, ImageJ (v1.45 NIH USA) was used to threshold the T1 to L5 CT images and calculate the segmental torso volume and mass corresponding to each vertebral level. Body segment masses for the head, neck and arms were taken from published anthropometric data. Intervertebral (IV) joint torques at each vertebral level were found using principles of static equilibrium together with the segmental body mass data. Summing the torque contributions for each level above the required joint, allowed the cumulative joint torque at a particular level to be found. Since there is some uncertainty in the position of the coronal plane Instantaneous Axis of Rotation (IAR) for scoliosis patients, it was assumed the IAR was located in the centre of the IV disc. A sensitivity analysis was performed to see what effect the IAR had on the joint torques by moving it laterally 10mm in both directions. Results. The magnitude of the torso masses from T1-L5 increased inferiorly, with a 150% increase in mean segmental torso mass from 0.6kg at T1 to 1.5kg at L5. The magnitudes of the calculated coronal plane joint torques during relaxed standing were typically 5-7 Nm at the apex of the curve, with the highest apex joint torque of 7Nm being found in patient 13. Shifting the assumed IAR by 10mm towards the convexity of the spine, increased the joint torque at that level by a mean 9.0%, showing that calculated joint torques were moderately sensitive to the assumed IAR location. When the IAR midline position was moved 10mm away from the convexity of the spine, the joint torque reduced by a mean 8.9%. Conclusion. Coronal plane joint torques as high as 7Nm can occur during relaxed standing in scoliosis patients, which may help to explain the mechanics of AIS progression. This study provides new anthropometric reference data on vertebral level-by-level torso mass in AIS patients which will be useful for biomechanical models of scoliosis progression and treatment. However, the CT scans were performed in supine (no gravitational load on spine) and curve magnitudes are known to be smaller than those measured in standing.

Averting uncertainty : a practical guide to physical activity research in Australian schools

Preventative health has become central to contemporary health care, identifying youth physical activity as a key factor in determining health and functioning. Schools offer a unique research setting due to distinctive methodological circumstances. However, school-based researchers face several obstacles in their endeavour to complete successful research investigations; often confronted with complex research designs and methodological procedures that are not easily amenable to school contexts. The purpose of this paper is to provide a practical guide for teachers (both teacher educators and teaching practitioners) seeking to conduct physical activity-based research in Australian school settings, as well as discuss research practices. The research enabling process has been divided into six phases: preparation; design; outcome measures; procedures; participants; and feedback. Careful planning and consideration must be undertaken prior to the commencement of, and during the research process, due to the complex nature of school settings and research processes that exist in the Australian context.

Discovering how scientific literacy has been positioned in the new Australian curriculum : science

Through the use of critical discourse analysis, this thesis investigated the perceived importance of scientific literacy in the new Australian Curriculum: Science. It was found that scientific literacy was ambiguous, and that the document did not provide detailed scope for intentional teaching for scientific literacy. To overcome this, recommendations on how to intentionally teach for scientific literacy were provided, so that Australian Science teachers can focus on improving scientific literacy outcomes for all students within this new curriculum.

Essays on technology adoption under uncertainty, globalization and economic growth

This thesis examines how the initial institutional and technological aspects of the economy and the reforms that alter these aspects influence long run growth and development. These issues are addressed in the framework of stochastic endogenous growth models and an empirical framework. The thesis is able to explain why developing nations exhibit diverse growth and inequality patterns. Consequently, the thesis raises a number of policy implications regarding how these nations can improve their economic outcomes.

Error and uncertainty of adult age estimation of the pubic symphysis in an Australian sub-population using computed tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of: (1) the error and uncertainty associated with the application of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation of the pubic symphysis to a contemporary Australian population; (2) the implications of sexual dimorphism and bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis through preliminary geometric morphometric assessment; and (3) the value of three-dimensional (3D) autopsy data acquisition for creating forensic anthropological standards. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating that, in the absence of demographically sound skeletal collections, post-mortem autopsy data provides an exciting platform for the construction of large contemporary ‘virtual osteological libraries’ for which forensic anthropological research can be conducted on Australian individuals. More specifically, this study assesses the applicability and accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia, and using a geometric morphometric approach, provides an insight to the age-related degeneration of the pubic symphysis. Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (1990) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations1-4. Australian forensic anthropology is constrained by a paucity of population specific standards due to a lack of repositories of documented skeletons. Consequently, in Australian casework proceedings, standards constructed from predominately American reference samples are applied to establish a biological profile. In the global era of terrorism and natural disasters, more specific population standards are required to improve the efficiency of medico-legal death investigation in Queensland. The sample comprises multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis (slice thickness: 0.5mm, overlap: 0.1mm) on 195 individuals of caucasian ethnicity aged 15-70 years. Volume rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in Amira® (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform® XOS. The sample was divided into ten-year age sub-sets (eg. 15-24) with a final sub-set of 65-70 years. Error with respect to the method’s assigned means were analysed on the basis of bias (directionality of error), inaccuracy (magnitude of error) and percentage correct classification of left and right symphyseal surfaces. Morphometric variables including surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone composition were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The results of this study demonstrated correct age classification utilizing the mean and standard deviations of each phase of the S-B method of 80.02% and 86.18% in Australian males and females, respectively. Application of the S-B method resulted in positive biases and mean inaccuracies of 7.24 (±6.56) years for individuals less than 55 years of age, compared to negative biases and mean inaccuracies of 5.89 (±3.90) years for individuals greater than 55 years of age. Statistically significant differences between chronological and S-B mean age were demonstrated in 83.33% and 50% of the six age subsets in males and females, respectively. Asymmetry of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon with 53.33% of the Queensland population exhibiting statistically significant (χ2 - p<0.01) differential phase classification of left and right surfaces of the same individual. Directionality was found in bilateral asymmetry, with the right symphyseal faces being slightly older on average and providing more accurate estimates using the S-B method5. Morphometric analysis verified these findings, with the left surface exhibiting significantly greater circumference and surface area than the right (p<0.05). Morphometric analysis demonstrated an increase in maximum height and width of the surface with age, with most significant changes (p<0.05) occurring between the 25-34 and 55-64 year age subsets. These differences may be attributed to hormonal components linked to menopause in females and a reduction in testosterone in males. Micro-architectural analysis demonstrated degradation of cortical composition with age, with differential bone resorption between the medial, ventral and dorsal surfaces of the pubic symphysis. This study recommends that the S-B method be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of unknown skeletal remains in Queensland. Age estimation will always be accompanied by error; therefore this study demonstrates the potential for quantitative morphometric modelling of age related changes of the pubic symphysis as a tool for methodological refinement, providing a rigor and robust assessment to remove the subjectivity associated with current pelvic aging methods.

Middle schooling and scientific literacy : bringing the students to science

This study is about young adolescents' engagement in learning science. The middle years of schooling are critical in the development of students' interest and engagement with learning. Successful school experiences enhance dispositions towards a career related to those experiences. Poor experiences lead to negative attitudes and rejection of certain career pathways. At a time when students are becoming more aware, more independent and focused on peer relationships and social status, the high school environment in some circumstances offers more a content-centred curriculum that is less personally relevant to their lives than the social melee surrounding them. Science education can further exacerbate the situation by presenting abstract concepts that have limited contextual relevance and a seemingly difficult vocabulary that further alienates adolescents from the curriculum. In an attempt to reverse a perceived growing disinterest by students to science (Goodrum, Druhan & Abbs, 2011), a study was initiated based on a student-centred unit designed to enhance and sustain adolescent engagement in science. The premise of the study was that adolescent students are more responsive toward learning if they are given an appropriate learning environment that helps connect their learning with life beyond the school. The purpose of this study was to examine the experiences of young adolescents with the aim of transforming school learning in science into meaningful experiences that connected with their lives. Two areas were specifically canvassed and subsumed within the study to strengthen the design base. One area that of the middle schooling ideology, offered specific pedagogical approaches and a philosophical framework that could provide opportunities for reform. The other area, the construct of scientific literacy (OECD, 2007) as defined by Holbrook and Rannikmae, (2009) appeared to provide a sense of purpose for students to aim toward and value for becoming active citizens. The study reported here is a self-reflection of a teacher/researcher exploring practice and challenging existing approaches to the teaching of science in the middle years of schooling. The case study approach (Yin, 2003) was adopted to guide the design of the study. Over a 6-month period, the researcher, an experienced secondary-science teacher, designed, implemented and documented a range of student-centred pedagogical practices with a Year-7 secondary science class. Data for this case study included video recordings, journals, interviews and surveys of students. Both quantitative and qualitative data sources were employed in a partially mixed methods research approach (Leech & Onwuegbuzie, 2009) dominated by qualitative data with the concurrent collection of quantitative data to corroborate interpretations as a means of analysing and developing a model of the dynamic learning environment. The findings from the case study identified five propositions that became the basis for a model of a student-centred learning environment that was able to sustain student participation and thus engagement in science. The study suggested that adolescent student engagement can be promoted and sustained by providing a classroom climate that encourages and strengthens social interaction. Engagement in science can be enhanced by presenting developmentally appropriate challenges that require rigorous exploration of contextually relevant learning environments; supporting students to develop connections with a curriculum that aligns with their own experiences. By setting an environment empathetic to adolescent needs and understandings, students were able to actively explore phenomena collaboratively through developmentally appropriate experiences. A significant outcome of this study was the transformative experiences of an insider, the teacher as researcher, whose reflections provide an authentic model for reforming pedagogy. The model and theory presented became an adjunct to my repertoire for science teaching in the middle years of schooling. The study was rewarding in that it helped address a void in my understanding of middle years of schooling by prompting me to re-think the notion of adolescence in the context of the science classroom. This study is timely given the report "The Status and Quality of Year 11 and 12 Science in Australian Schools" (Goodrum, Druhan & Abbs, 2011) and national curricular changes that are being proposed for science (ACARA, 2009).

Economic burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong province [山东省恶性肿瘤经济负担分析]

Objective: To evaluate the economic burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong province in order to provide scientific evidence for policy-making. Methods: The main sources for this study were the data from the third sampling survey of death cause in 2006 and cancer prevalence survey in 2007 in Shandong province. The direct medical cost was calculated based on the survey data. The indirect cost due to mortality and morbidity were estimated with human capital approach based on the data of disability-adjusted life years derived from the two surveys and gross domestic product (GDP) data. The total economic burden was the sum of direct medical cost and indirect cost. The uncertainty analysis was conducted according to the methodology in global burden of disease study. Results: The total cost of cancer in Shandong province in 2006 estimated was 18 057 million Yuan RMB (95% confidence interval:16 817 － 19 393 million), which accounted for 0. 83% of the total GDP. The direct medical cost，indirect mortality cost and indirect morbidity cost accounted for 17.28%, 78.53%, and 4.20% of total economic burden of malignant neoplasms, respectively. Liver，lung and stomach cancer were the top three tumors with heavier economic burden, with accounted for more than one half (57. 83%) of the total economic burden of all cancers. The uncertainty of total burden estimated was around ± 7%, which mainly derived from the uncertainty of indirect economic burden. Conclusion: The influence of cancers on social economy is dominated by the loss of productivity, especially by the productivity loss due to premature death. Liver, lung and stomach cancer are the major cancers for disease control and prevention in Shandong province. Abstract in Chinese 目的 评价山东省恶性肿瘤经济负担,为卫生决策提供科学依据. 方法 以2006年山东省第3次死因回顾抽样凋查资料和2007年山东省恶性肿瘤现患状况抽样调查资料为基础,测算全省直接医疗成本;采用人力资本法测算死亡间接负担和伤残间接负担;参考全球疾病负担研究的方法对测算结果的不确定性进行分析. 结果 2006年山东省因恶性肿瘤导致的总经济负担为180.57亿元(95%CI=16 817～19 393),占全省GDP总量的0.83%,其中直接医疗成本占总负担的17.28%,死亡造成的间接经济负担占78.53%,伤残所致间接经济负担占4.20%;肝癌、肺癌和胃癌为山东省经济负担最重的3种恶性肿瘤,总经济负担合计占全部恶性肿瘤的57.83%;总经济负担估计结果的不确定性范围在±7%左右,主要取决于间接经济负担的不确定性. 结论 恶性肿瘤对社会经济的影响主要通过生产力的损失产生作用,并以死亡所致生产力损失为主;肝癌、肺癌和胃癌应是山东省恶性肿瘤预防控制的重点.

Perceptions of land-use uncertainty in Queensland's resource-based regions

Some of Queensland's regions are experiencing rapid changes related to the recent and growing capacity to more effectively exploit significant energy sources. These changes have triggered land-use conflicts between the mining sector and other economic sectors, mainly agriculture. These conflicts fuel existing uncertainty surrounding the current and future economic, social and environmental impacts of extractive industries. This paper explores the concept of uncertainty as it applies to planning for resource-based regions through a scoping analysis of regional stakeholders' perceptions of land-use uncertainty. It then investigates solutions to alleviate such an issue.

Estimation of the burden of malignant neoplasms by DALYs in Shandong Province [应用伤残调整寿命年测量山东省恶性肿瘤疾病负担的研究]

Objective: To evaluate the burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong Province in order to provide scientific evidence for policy-making. Methods: The main data for this study were from Shandong third cause of death sampling survey in 2006 and Shandong 2007 cancer prevalence survey. YLLs, YLDs, DALYs and disability weights of each type of cancers were calculated according to the global burdens of disease （GBD） methodology. The direct method was used to estimate YLDs. The uncertainty analysis was conducted following the methodology in GBD study. Results: The total cancers burden in Shandong population was 1 383 thousands DALYs. Lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer and esophagus cancer were the top four cancers with the highest health burden. The burden of the four major cancers together accounted for 71.45% of the total burden of all cancers. 95% of the total burden of malignant tumors was caused by premature death, and only 5.26% of the total cancer burden was due to disability. The uncertainty of total burden estimate was around±11%， the uncertainty of YLDs was bigger than that of YLLs. Conclusion: The health burden due to cancers in Shandong population is heavier than that of the national average level. Liver cancer, lung cancer and stomach cancer should be the major cancers for disease control and prevention in Shandong.

Redistribution and technology adoption under uncertainty : a political economy perspective

We examine the role of politico-economic influences on macroeconomic performance within the framework of an endogenous growth model with costly technology adoption and uncertainty. The model is aimed at understanding the diversity in growth and inequality experiences across countries. Agents adopt either of two risky technologies, one of which is only available through financial intermediaries, who are able to alleviate some of this risk. The entry cost of financial intermediation depends on the proportion of government revenue that is allocated towards cost-reducing financial development expenditure, and agents vote on this proportion. The results show that agents at the top and bottom ends of the distribution prefer alternative means of re-distribution, thereby effectively blocking the allocation of resources towards cost-reducing financial development expenditure. Thus political factors have a role in delaying financial and capital deepening and economic development. Furthermore, the model provides a political-economy perspective on the Kuznets curve; uncertainty interacts with the political economy mechanism to produce transitional inequality patterns that, depending on initial conditions, can unearth the Kuznets-curve experience. Finally, the political outcomes are inefficient relative to policies aimed at maximizing the collective welfare of agents in the economy.

Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution

Humanities and social scientific research methods in porn studies

Porn studies researchers in the humanities have tended to use different research methods from those in social sciences. There has been surprisingly little conversation between the groups about methodology. This article presents a basic introduction to textual analysis and statistical analysis, aiming to provide for all porn studies researchers a familiarity with these two quite distinct traditions of data analysis. Comparing these two approaches, the article suggests that social science approaches are often strongly reliable – but can sacrifice validity to this end. Textual analysis is much less reliable, but has the capacity to be strongly valid. Statistical methods tend to produce a picture of human beings as groups, in terms of what they have in common, whereas humanities approaches often seek out uniqueness. Social science approaches have asked a more limited range of questions than have the humanities. The article ends with a call to mix up the kinds of research methods that are applied to various objects of study.

Diabetes mellitus in South Asia : scientific evaluation of the research output

BACKGROUND: Diabetes in South Asia represents a different disease entity in terms of its onset, progression, and complications. In the present study, we systematically analyzed the medical research output on diabetes in South Asia. METHODS: The online SciVerse Scopus database was searched using the search terms "diabetes" and "diabetes mellitus" in the article Title, Abstract or Keywords fields, in conjunction with the names of each regional country in the Author Affiliation field. RESULTS: In total, 8478 research articles were identified. Most were from India (85.1%) and Pakistan (9.6%) and the contribution to the global diabetes research output was 2.1%. Publications from South Asia increased markedly after 2007, with 58.7% of papers published between 2000 and 2010 being published after 2007. Most papers were Research Articles (75.9%) and Reviews (12.9%), with only 90 (1.1%) clinical trials. Publications predominantly appeared in local national journals. Indian authors and institutions had the most number of articles and the highest h-index. There were 136 (1.6%) intraregional collaborative studies. Only 39 articles (0.46%) had >100 citations. CONCLUSIONS: Regional research output on diabetes mellitus is unsatisfactory, with only a minimal contribution to global diabetes research. Publications are not highly cited and only a few randomized controlled trials have been performed. In the coming decades, scientists in the region must collaborate and focus on practical and culturally acceptable interventional studies on diabetes mellitus.

Scepticism and trust: two counterpoint essentials in science education for complex socio-scientific issues

In this response to Tom G. K. Bryce and Stephen P. Day’s (Cult Stud Sci Educ. doi:10.1007/s11422-013-9500-0, 2013) original article, I share with them their interest in the teaching of climate change in school science, but I widen it to include other contemporary complex socio-scientific issues that also need to be discussed. I use an alternative view of the relationship between science, technology and society, supported by evidence from both science and society, to suggest science-informed citizens as a more realistic outcome image of school science than the authors’ one of mini-scientists. The intellectual independence of students Bryce and Day assume, and intend for school science, is countered with an active intellectual dependence. It is only in relation to emerging and uncertain scientific contexts that students should be taught about scepticism, but they also need to learn when, and why to trust science as an antidote to the expressions of doubting it. Some suggestions for pedagogies that could lead to these new learnings are made. The very recent fifth report of the IPCC answers many of their concerns about climate change.