Estimating money demand functions for South Asian countries

In this paper, we estimate a money demand function for a panel of five South Asian countries. We find that the money demand and its determinants, namely real income, real exchange rate and short-term domestic and foreign interest rates are cointegrated both for individual countries as well as for the panel, and panel long-run elasticities provide robust evidence of statistically significant relationships between money demand and its determinants. Our test for panel Granger causality suggests short-run causality running from all variables, except foreign interest rate, to money demand, and we find evidence that except for Nepal money demand functions are stable.

Money laundering control and suppression of financing of terrorism : some thoughts on the impact of customer due diligence measures on financial exclusion

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between anti-money laundering (“AML”) and combating of financing of terrorism (“CFT”) customer due diligence (“CDD”) measures in the financial services industry, and exclusion from financial services.
Design/methodology/approach – An introduction to the concept of financial exclusion is provided as well as an overview of international AML/CFT CDD standards. The paper highlights a softening of national CDD measures in South Africa and the UK to lessen the impact on financial exclusion.
Findings – Countries should consider the impact that CDD requirements may have on financial exclusion when they design their AML/CFT systems.
Research limitations/implications – Multi-discilinary research is required to improve the understanding of the broader interaction between AML/CFT objectives, financial exclusion and economic development, especially in countries with a large informal economy.
Practical implications – CDD requirements may unnecessarily exacerbate financial exclusion if they are not formulated with care to reflect the reality of the particular country setting.
Originality/value – The paper offers insights into the international standards resulting to the identification of clients and the experiences in the UK and South Africa regarding the implementation of these standards on financial exclusion.

Client identification and money laundering control : perspectives on the Financial Intelligence Centre Act 38 of 2001

The Financial Intelligence Centre Act 38 of 2001 (FICA) compels certain persons and institutions (defined as "accountable institutions'') to identify and verify the identity of a new client before any transaction may be concluded or any business relationship is established.1 Accountable institutions are listed in schedule ¹ to FICA and include banks, brokers, financial advisers, insurance companies, attorneys and estate agents. This duty to identify new clients came into effect on 30 June 2003. However, FICA also requires a similar procedure to be followed in respect of all current clients. Current clients are those with whom an accountable institution had business relationships on 30 June 2003.² After 30 June 2004 an institution may not conclude a transaction in the course of its business relationship with an unidentified current client, until it has established and verified that client's identity as prescribed. An institution that concludes any transaction in contravention of this prohibition, commits an offence and is liable to a fine not exceeding R10 million or to imprisonment of up to 15 years.³

The majority of accountable institutions and their clients failed to meet the June 2004 current client identification deadline.4 This failure posed serious economic and legal risks. With a few days to spare, the minister of finance granted a partial and temporary exemption in respect of these requirements. This article explores the statutory scheme for identification and re-identification of clients and some of the practical problems that were encountered. The June 2004 exemptions from these requirements are also considered and proposals for law reform are made.

The discussion of the FICA identification scheme necessitates the following brief overview of the international and South African money laundering control framework.

1 s 21(1) of FICA.
2 s 21(2) of FICA. See also s 82(2)(b).
3 s 46(2) of FICA read with s 68(1) of FICA.

Money laundering trends in South Africa

Reports a study by the Centre for the Study of Economic Crime at Rand Afrikaans University into the characteristics of money laundering schemes in South Africa; these were discussed at a workshop on December 5 2001. Outlines the 1998 Proceeds of Crime Act (POCA), the 1992 Drugs and Drug Trafficking Act and their general money laundering provisions, including negligence and intent, defence and penalties; also the racketeering provisions of POCA. Moves on to the reporting of suspicious transactions, where the POCA provisions will be repealed by the new Financial Intelligence Centre Act (FICA); this covers general obligations, secrecy and confidentiality, penalties, preventing tipping-off, and reporting statistics. Gives examples of the schemes themselves, which fall into broad themes: purchase of goods and properties, abuse of businesses and financial institutions, cash and currency, and the informal sector; case studies include S v Dustigar, Motsepe v Commissioner of Inland Revenue, S v Van Zyl, S v Caswell, and Director of Public Prosecutions: Cape of Good Hope v Bathgate.

Money laundering : of watchdogs, bloodhounds and guide dogs

June 2003 was a very important month from the perspective of money laundering control. The main administrative money laundering control duties took effect on 30 June 2003, thereby changing many of the business practices that were part of the South African business landscape. In the same month, South Africa gained membership of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) which is the main international standard-setting body in respect of money laundering control. At the meeting where South Africa’s membership was endorsed, the FATF also adopted a new and more stringent set of money laundering control standards that all countries will have to meet. As South Africa is implementing its money laundering control legislation, thought must therefore be given to amendments that may be required to comply with the new set of international standards. In this state of flux, accountants and auditors have a very important role to play. Not only do they have to comply with the legislation but they will also be required to provide guidance to those clients who are bewildered by the new requirements. Obviously auditors will also have to consider non-compliance with these laws when planning and carrying out an audit.

Revisiting the US money demand function: an application of the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds test for a long-run relationship

In this article, we examine the issue of a levels relationship and stability of the US money demand function over the period 1959:01 to 2004:02. We use the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds testing approach to a long-run relationship in levels of the variables, namely real money demand, nominal interest rate and real income. We find greater evidence for a long-run relationship in levels and stability of the US money demand function when we use M2 as a proxy for money demand. However, we find little evidence for a long-run relationship between M1 and M2 with their determinants for the recent period, spanning the last decade or so.

Estimating the demand for money in an unstable open economy : the case of the Fiji Islands

In this paper, we estimate Fiji's money demand function for the period 1971-2002 based on the bounds testing approach to cointegration, which is applicable irrespective of whether or not the underlying variables are non-stationary. We estimate models with and without a time trend and for lag lengths ranging from 1-3, but fail to find any evidence for a long-run relationship. Moreover, our structural break analysis suggests that the unstable nature of Fiji's money demand may be due to atypical events, such as coups; the implementation of policies, such as devaluations and value added tax; and the onset of trade liberalisation policies over the last two decades.

Modeling the relationship between budget deficits, money supply and inflation in Fiji

For Fiji, which has been suffering persistent deficits since independence, determining the relationships between inflation, budget deficits, money supply, output, and import prices is essential. We find that inflation, deficits and money supply are cointegrated when inflation is the endogenous variable, and the long-run elasticities confirm that money supply and deficits induce inflation. While there is a short-run, unidirectional causality running from money supply to inflation and a bi-directional causality between money supply and budget deficits, in the long run both money supply and deficits ?Granger-cause? inflation.

Are youth mentoring programs good value-for-money? An evaluation of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Melbourne program

Background : The Big Brothers Big Sisters (BBBS) program matches vulnerable young people with a trained, supervised adult volunteer as mentor. The young people are typically seriously disadvantaged, with multiple psychosocial problems.

Methods : Threshold analysis was undertaken to determine whether investment in the program was a worthwhile use of limited public funds. The potential cost savings were based on US estimates of life-time costs associated with high-risk youth who drop out-of-school and become adult criminals. The intervention was modelled for children aged 10–14 years residing in Melbourne in 2004.

Results : If the program serviced 2,208 of the most vulnerable young people, it would cost AUD 39.5 M. Assuming 50% were high-risk, the associated costs of their adult criminality would be AUD 3.3 billion. To break even, the program would need to avert high-risk behaviours in only 1.3% (14/1,104) of participants.

Conclusion : This indicative evaluation suggests that the BBBS program represents excellent 'value for money'.