Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Information sources, ICTs and price information in rural agricultural markets

The spread and rapid uptake of mobile telephony in Sub-Saharan Africa has highlighted the potential role of Information Communication Technologies in improving market participation and welfare outcomes for farm producers in agricultural produce markets. This article explores the influence of different sources of information and transmission technologies on the quantum and reliability of market information flowing to farm producers, based on a survey of farm households in northern Ghana. Our results suggest that the principal role of radio broadcasts and mobile telephony is in providing a broader knowledge of markets by enhancing the quantum of market information flowing to farm producers. They do not, however, appear to have a significant impact on the quality/reliability of price information obtained by farmers for making marketing decisions. Information sources appear to be the chief determinant of the reliability of price information, with price information obtained from extension agents being the most credible. Our results provide some useful insights for the design and implementation of Market Information Systems aimed at encouraging market participation by rural farm producers in agricultural markets.

Quasi-sure existence of Gaussian rough paths and large deviation principles for capacities

We construct a quasi-sure version (in the sense of Malliavin) of geometric rough paths associated with a Gaussian process with long-time memory. As an application we establish a large deviation principle (LDP) for capacities for such Gaussian rough paths. Together with Lyons' universal limit theorem, our results yield immediately the corresponding results for pathwise solutions to stochastic differential equations driven by such Gaussian process in the sense of rough paths. Moreover, our LDP result implies the result of Yoshida on the LDP for capacities over the abstract Wiener space associated with such Gaussian process.

A structure-dynamic approach to cortical organization: Number of paths and accessibility

A structure-dynamic approach to cortical systems is reported which is based on the number of paths and the accessibility of each node. The latter measurement is obtained by performing self-avoiding random walks in the respective networks, so as to simulate dynamics, and then calculating the entropies of the transition probabilities for walks starting from each node. Cortical networks of three species, namely cat, macaque and humans, are studied considering structural and dynamical aspects. It is verified that the human cortical network presents the highest accessibility and number of paths (in terms of z-scores). The correlation between the number of paths and accessibility is also investigated as a mean to quantify the level of independence between paths connecting pairs of nodes in cortical networks. By comparing the cortical networks of cat, macaque and humans, it is verified that the human cortical network tends to present the largest number of independent paths of length larger than four. These results suggest that the human cortical network is potentially the most resilient to brain injures. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On a product formula for the Conley-Zelmder index of symplectic paths and its applications

Using invariance by fixed-endpoints homotopies and a generalized notion of symplectic Cayley transform, we prove a product formula for the Conley-Zehnder index of continuous paths with arbitrary endpoints in the symplectic group. We discuss two applications of the formula, to the metaplectic group and to periodic solutions of Hamiltonian systems.

Contemporary Approaches to Translation in the Classroom : A study of students' Attitudes and Strategies

The purpose of this study is to explore the strategies and attitudes of students towards translation in the context of language learning. The informants come from two different classes at an Upper Secondary vocational program. The study was born from the backdrop of discussions among some English teachers representing different theories on translation and language learning, meeting students endeavoring in language learning beyond the confinement of the classroom and personal experiences of translation in language learning. The curriculum and course plan for English at the vocational program emphasize two things of particular interest to our study; integration of the program outcomes and vocational language into the English course - so called meshed learning – and student awareness of their own learning processes. A background is presented of different contrasting methods in translation and language learning that is relevant to our discussion. However, focus is given to contemporary research on reforms within the Comparative Theory, as expressed in Translation in Language and Teaching (TILT), Contrastive Analysis and “The Third Space”. The results of the students’ reflections are presented as attempts to translate two different texts; one lyric and one technical vocational text. The results show a pragmatic attitude among the students toward tools like dictionaries or Google Translate, but also a critical awareness about their use and limits. They appear to prefer the use of first language to the target language when discussing the correct translation as they sought accuracy over meaning. Translation for them was a natural and problem-solving event worth a rightful place in language teaching.

Quantitative Information Flow, Relations and Polymorphic Types

This paper uses Shannon's information theory to give a quantitative definition of information flow in systems that transform inputs to outputs. For deterministic systems, the definition is shown to specialise to a simpler form when the information source and the known inputs jointly determine the inputs. For this special case, the definition is related to the classical security condition of non-interference and an equivalence is established between non-interference and independence of random variables. Quantitative information flow for deterministic systems is then presented in relational form. With this presentation, it is shown how relational parametricity can be used to derive upper and lower bounds on information flows through families of functions defined in the second order lambda calculus.

How resource rich countries attract foreign direct investments: a study of Western Asian countries and strategies of industrialization and diversification

Fuel is a self-depleting resource and long term dependency on this commodity alone will not suffice. An export trade oriented approach can lead to faster industrialization while diversification leads to economic sustainable growth. This research seeks to understand how countries compete for foreign direct investments, and how certain activities have the most impact in the competitive global marketplace. Research suggests that when companies decide to invest abroad, they seek only to find countries that facilitate their strategic objectives. The results conclude with appropriate levels of government accountability, credibility and visibility with the private sector, foreign direct investment is attracted by policy advocacy and policy reform. By reviewing countries such as United Arab Emirates in direct comparison to Western Asian countries, including Kuwait and Iraq with high levels of fuel exports, along with Qatar with optimistic marketplace indicators and plentitude of skills and capabilities – research seems to suggest that despite high capabilities and attractive GDP, promotional investment activities yield the highest returns using policy advocacy and reform.

Stress induces behavioral sensitization, increases nicotine-seeking behavior and leads to a decrease of CREB in the nucleus accumbens

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gaze pursuit and arm control of adolescent males diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and normal controls: evidence of a dissociation in processing visual information of short and long duration

Three-dimensional kinematic analysis of line of gaze, arm and ball was used to describe the visual and motor behaviour of male adolescents diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The ADHD participants were tested when both on (ADHD-On) and off (ADHD-Off) their medication and compared to age-matched normal controls in a modified table tennis task that required tracking the ball and hitting to cued right and left targets. Long-duration information was provided by a pre-cue, in which the target was illuminated approximately 2 s before the serve, and short-duration information by an early-cue illuminated about 350 ms after the serve, leaving -500 ms to select the target and perform the action. The ADHD groups differed significantly from the control group in both the pre-cue and early-cue conditions in being less accurate, in having a later onset and duration of pursuit tracking, and a higher frequency of gaze on and off the ball. The use of medication significantly reduced the gaze frequency of the ADHD participants, but surprisingly this did not lead to an increase in pursuit tracking, suggesting a barrier was reached beyond which ball flight information could not be processed. The control and ADHD groups did not differ in arm movement onset, duration and velocity in the short-duration early-cue condition; in the long-duration pre-cue condition, however, the ADHD group's movement time onset and arm velocity differed significantly from controls. The results show that the ADHD groups were able to process short-duration information without experiencing adverse effects on their motor behaviour; however, long-duration information contributed to irregular movement control.

Biomolecular information, brain activity and cognitive functions

Molecular neurobiology has provided an explanation of mechanisms supporting mental functions as learning, memory, emotion and consciousness. However, an explanatory gap remains between two levels of description: molecular mechanisms determining cellular and tissue functions, and cognitive functions. In this paper we review molecular and cellular mechanisms that determine brain activity, and then hypothetize about their relation with cognition and consciousness. The brain is conceived of as a dynamic system that exchanges information with the whole body and the environment. Three explanatory hypotheses are presented, stating that: a) brain tissue function is coordinated by macromolecules controlling ion movements, b) structured (amplitude, frequency and phase-modulated) local field potentials generated by organized ionic movement embody cognitive information patterns, and c) conscious episodes are constructed by a large-scale mechanism that uses oscillatory synchrony to integrate local field patterns. © by São Paulo State University.

Energy efficiency potential in Jamaica: challenges, opportunities and strategies for implementation

Incluye Bibliografía

Policy alternatives and strategies for the Plurinational State of Bolivia following the end of trade preferences

Include bibliography

Policy alternatives and strategies for the Plurinational State of Bolivia following the end of trade preferences

Includes bibliography

Supply Chain Management practices in the electro-electronics sector in Brazil: Evolutionary approach, information technology adoption and management actions

This paper examines the current level of adoption of Supply Chain Management (SCM) practices in the electro-electronic sector in Brazil and aims to identify the management and Information Technology (IT) actions that have been implemented to support the adoption of those practices. An e-mail survey was conducted. Descriptive statistics techniques were employed for data analysis. This study makes contributions to the electro-electronics sector and to the topics related to SCM, such as identifi cation and level of adoption of SCM practices. Another contribution of this research is the investigation of whether approaches such as Enterprise Resources Planning (ERP), Workshop with Customers, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), Workshop with Suppliers and electronic Kanban are commonly used to support SCM practices. So far, this is the fi rst research on SCM practices in the electro-electronics sector in Brazil. Copyright © 2012 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.