924 resultados para error model
Resumo:
The design and construction community has shown increasing interest in adopting building information models (BIMs). The richness of information provided by BIMs has the potential to streamline the design and construction processes by enabling enhanced communication, coordination, automation and analysis. However, there are many challenges in extracting construction-specific information out of BIMs. In most cases, construction practitioners have to manually identify the required information, which is inefficient and prone to error, particularly for complex, large-scale projects. This paper describes the process and methods we have formalized to partially automate the extraction and querying of construction-specific information from a BIM. We describe methods for analyzing a BIM to query for spatial information that is relevant for construction practitioners, and that is typically represented implicitly in a BIM. Our approach integrates ifcXML data and other spatial data to develop a richer model for construction users. We employ custom 2D topological XQuery predicates to answer a variety of spatial queries. The validation results demonstrate that this approach provides a richer representation of construction-specific information compared to existing BIM tools.
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For the timber industry, the ability to simulate the drying of wood is invaluable for manufacturing high quality wood products. Mathematically, however, modelling the drying of a wet porous material, such as wood, is a diffcult task due to its heterogeneous and anisotropic nature, and the complex geometry of the underlying pore structure. The well{ developed macroscopic modelling approach involves writing down classical conservation equations at a length scale where physical quantities (e.g., porosity) can be interpreted as averaged values over a small volume (typically containing hundreds or thousands of pores). This averaging procedure produces balance equations that resemble those of a continuum with the exception that effective coeffcients appear in their deffnitions. Exponential integrators are numerical schemes for initial value problems involving a system of ordinary differential equations. These methods differ from popular Newton{Krylov implicit methods (i.e., those based on the backward differentiation formulae (BDF)) in that they do not require the solution of a system of nonlinear equations at each time step but rather they require computation of matrix{vector products involving the exponential of the Jacobian matrix. Although originally appearing in the 1960s, exponential integrators have recently experienced a resurgence in interest due to a greater undertaking of research in Krylov subspace methods for matrix function approximation. One of the simplest examples of an exponential integrator is the exponential Euler method (EEM), which requires, at each time step, approximation of φ(A)b, where φ(z) = (ez - 1)/z, A E Rnxn and b E Rn. For drying in porous media, the most comprehensive macroscopic formulation is TransPore [Perre and Turner, Chem. Eng. J., 86: 117-131, 2002], which features three coupled, nonlinear partial differential equations. The focus of the first part of this thesis is the use of the exponential Euler method (EEM) for performing the time integration of the macroscopic set of equations featured in TransPore. In particular, a new variable{ stepsize algorithm for EEM is presented within a Krylov subspace framework, which allows control of the error during the integration process. The performance of the new algorithm highlights the great potential of exponential integrators not only for drying applications but across all disciplines of transport phenomena. For example, when applied to well{ known benchmark problems involving single{phase liquid ow in heterogeneous soils, the proposed algorithm requires half the number of function evaluations than that required for an equivalent (sophisticated) Newton{Krylov BDF implementation. Furthermore for all drying configurations tested, the new algorithm always produces, in less computational time, a solution of higher accuracy than the existing backward Euler module featured in TransPore. Some new results relating to Krylov subspace approximation of '(A)b are also developed in this thesis. Most notably, an alternative derivation of the approximation error estimate of Hochbruck, Lubich and Selhofer [SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 19(5): 1552{1574, 1998] is provided, which reveals why it performs well in the error control procedure. Two of the main drawbacks of the macroscopic approach outlined above include the effective coefficients must be supplied to the model, and it fails for some drying configurations, where typical dual{scale mechanisms occur. In the second part of this thesis, a new dual{scale approach for simulating wood drying is proposed that couples the porous medium (macroscale) with the underlying pore structure (microscale). The proposed model is applied to the convective drying of softwood at low temperatures and is valid in the so{called hygroscopic range, where hygroscopically held liquid water is present in the solid phase and water exits only as vapour in the pores. Coupling between scales is achieved by imposing the macroscopic gradient on the microscopic field using suitably defined periodic boundary conditions, which allows the macroscopic ux to be defined as an average of the microscopic ux over the unit cell. This formulation provides a first step for moving from the macroscopic formulation featured in TransPore to a comprehensive dual{scale formulation capable of addressing any drying configuration. Simulation results reported for a sample of spruce highlight the potential and flexibility of the new dual{scale approach. In particular, for a given unit cell configuration it is not necessary to supply the effective coefficients prior to each simulation.
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Recent years have seen an increased uptake of business process management technology in industries. This has resulted in organizations trying to manage large collections of business process models. One of the challenges facing these organizations concerns the retrieval of models from large business process model repositories. For example, in some cases new process models may be derived from existing models, thus finding these models and adapting them may be more effective and less error-prone than developing them from scratch. Since process model repositories may be large, query evaluation may be time consuming. Hence, we investigate the use of indexes to speed up this evaluation process. To make our approach more applicable, we consider the semantic similarity between labels. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate that our approach is efficient.
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A number of mathematical models investigating certain aspects of the complicated process of wound healing are reported in the literature in recent years. However, effective numerical methods and supporting error analysis for the fractional equations which describe the process of wound healing are still limited. In this paper, we consider the numerical simulation of a fractional mathematical model of epidermal wound healing (FMM-EWH), which is based on the coupled advection-diffusion equations for cell and chemical concentration in a polar coordinate system. The space fractional derivatives are defined in the Left and Right Riemann-Liouville sense. Fractional orders in the advection and diffusion terms belong to the intervals (0, 1) or (1, 2], respectively. Some numerical techniques will be used. Firstly, the coupled advection-diffusion equations are decoupled to a single space fractional advection-diffusion equation in a polar coordinate system. Secondly, we propose a new implicit difference method for simulating this equation by using the equivalent of Riemann-Liouville and Grünwald-Letnikov fractional derivative definitions. Thirdly, its stability and convergence are discussed, respectively. Finally, some numerical results are given to demonstrate the theoretical analysis.
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BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the prevalence and associations of refractive error on Norfolk Island. DESIGN: Population-based study on Norfolk Island, South Pacific. PARTICIPANTS: All permanent residents on Norfolk Island aged ≥ 15 years were invited to participate. METHODS: Patients underwent non-cycloplegic autorefraction, slit-lamp biomicroscope examination and biometry assessment. Only phakic eyes were analysed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and multivariate associations of refractive error and myopia. RESULTS: There were 677 people (645 right phakic eyes, 648 left phakic eyes) aged ≥ 15 years were included in this study. Mean age of participants was 51.1 (standard deviation 15.7; range 15-81). Three hundred and seventy-six people (55.5%) were female. Adjusted to the 2006 Norfolk Island population, prevalence estimates of refractive error were as follows: myopia (mean spherical equivalent ≥ -1.0 D) 10.1%, hypermetropia (mean spherical equivalent ≥ 1.0 D) 36.6%, and astigmatism 17.7%. Significant independent predictors of myopia in the multivariate model were lower age (P < 0.001), longer axial length (P < 0.001), shallower anterior chamber depth (P = 0.031) and increased corneal curvature (P < 0.001). Significant independent predictors of refractive error were increasing age (P < 0.001), male gender (P = 0.009), Pitcairn ancestry (P = 0.041), cataract (P < 0.001), longer axial length (P < 0.001) and decreased corneal curvature (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of myopia on Norfolk Island is lower than on mainland Australia, and the Norfolk Island population demonstrates ethnic differences in the prevalence estimates. Given the significant associations between refractive error and several ocular biometry characteristics, Norfolk Island may be a useful population in which to find the genetic basis of refractive error.
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Most studies examining the temperature–mortality association in a city used temperatures from one site or the average from a network of sites. This may cause measurement error as temperature varies across a city due to effects such as urban heat islands. We examined whether spatiotemporal models using spatially resolved temperatures produced different associations between temperature and mortality compared with time series models that used non-spatial temperatures. We obtained daily mortality data in 163 areas across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. We used ordinary kriging to interpolate spatial temperature variation across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. We used a spatiotemporal model to examine the impact of spatially resolved temperatures on mortality. Also, we used a time series model to examine non-spatial temperatures using a single site and the average temperature from three sites. We used squared Pearson scaled residuals to compare model fit. We found that kriged temperatures were consistent with observed temperatures. Spatiotemporal models using kriged temperature data yielded slightly better model fit than time series models using a single site or the average of three sites' data. Despite this better fit, spatiotemporal and time series models produced similar associations between temperature and mortality. In conclusion, time series models using non-spatial temperatures were equally good at estimating the city-wide association between temperature and mortality as spatiotemporal models.
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Travel time estimation and prediction on motorways has long been a topic of research. Prediction modeling generally assumes that the estimation is perfect. No matter how good is the prediction modeling- the errors in estimation can significantly deteriorate the accuracy and reliability of the prediction. Models have been proposed to estimate travel time from loop detector data. Generally, detectors are closely spaced (say 500m) and travel time can be estimated accurately. However, detectors are not always perfect, and even during normal running conditions few detectors malfunction, resulting in increase in the spacing between the functional detectors. Under such conditions, error in the travel time estimation is significantly large and generally unacceptable. This research evaluates the in-practice travel time estimation model during different traffic conditions. It is observed that the existing models fail to accurately estimate travel time during large detector spacing and congestion shoulder periods. Addressing this issue, an innovative Hybrid model that only considers loop data for travel time estimation is proposed. The model is tested using simulation and is validated with real Bluetooth data from Pacific Motorway Brisbane. Results indicate that during non free flow conditions and larger detector spacing Hybrid model provides significant improvement in the accuracy of travel time estimation.
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An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a computational modeling tool which has found extensive acceptance in many disciplines for modeling complex real world problems. An ANN can model problems through learning by example, rather than by fully understanding the detailed characteristics and physics of the system. In the present study, the accuracy and predictive power of an ANN was evaluated in predicting kinetic viscosity of biodiesels over a wide range of temperatures typically encountered in diesel engine operation. In this model, temperature and chemical composition of biodiesel were used as input variables. In order to obtain the necessary data for model development, the chemical composition and temperature dependent fuel properties of ten different types of biodiesels were measured experimentally using laboratory standard testing equipments following internationally recognized testing procedures. The Neural Networks Toolbox of MatLab R2012a software was used to train, validate and simulate the ANN model on a personal computer. The network architecture was optimised following a trial and error method to obtain the best prediction of the kinematic viscosity. The predictive performance of the model was determined by calculating the absolute fraction of variance (R2), root mean squared (RMS) and maximum average error percentage (MAEP) between predicted and experimental results. This study found that ANN is highly accurate in predicting the viscosity of biodiesel and demonstrates the ability of the ANN model to find a meaningful relationship between biodiesel chemical composition and fuel properties at different temperature levels. Therefore the model developed in this study can be a useful tool in accurately predict biodiesel fuel properties instead of undertaking costly and time consuming experimental tests.
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Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS–SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS–SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65–85% for hybrid PLS–SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS–SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS–SVM model.
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Parabolic trough concentrator collector is the most matured, proven and widespread technology for the exploitation of the solar energy on a large scale for middle temperature applications. The assessment of the opportunities and the possibilities of the collector system are relied on its optical performance. A reliable Monte Carlo ray tracing model of a parabolic trough collector is developed by using Zemax software. The optical performance of an ideal collector depends on the solar spectral distribution and the sunshape, and the spectral selectivity of the associated components. Therefore, each step of the model, including the spectral distribution of the solar energy, trough reflectance, glazing anti-reflection coating and the absorber selective coating is explained and verified. Radiation flux distribution around the receiver, and the optical efficiency are two basic aspects of optical simulation are calculated using the model, and verified with widely accepted analytical profile and measured values respectively. Reasonably very good agreement is obtained. Further investigations are carried out to analyse the characteristics of radiation distribution around the receiver tube at different insolation, envelop conditions, and selective coating on the receiver; and the impact of scattered light from the receiver surface on the efficiency. However, the model has the capability to analyse the optical performance at variable sunshape, tracking error, collector imperfections including absorber misalignment with focal line and de-focal effect of the absorber, different rim angles, and geometric concentrations. The current optical model can play a significant role in understanding the optical aspects of a trough collector, and can be employed to extract useful information on the optical performance. In the long run, this optical model will pave the way for the construction of low cost standalone photovoltaic and thermal hybrid collector in Australia for small scale domestic hot water and electricity production.
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We have developed a Hierarchical Look-Ahead Trajectory Model (HiLAM) that incorporates the firing pattern of medial entorhinal grid cells in a planning circuit that includes interactions with hippocampus and prefrontal cortex. We show the model’s flexibility in representing large real world environments using odometry information obtained from challenging video sequences. We acquire the visual data from a camera mounted on a small tele-operated vehicle. The camera has a panoramic field of view with its focal point approximately 5 cm above the ground level, similar to what would be expected from a rat’s point of view. Using established algorithms for calculating perceptual speed from the apparent rate of visual change over time, we generate raw dead reckoning information which loses spatial fidelity over time due to error accumulation. We rectify the loss of fidelity by exploiting the loop-closure detection ability of a biologically inspired, robot navigation model termed RatSLAM. The rectified motion information serves as a velocity input to the HiLAM to encode the environment in the form of grid cell and place cell maps. Finally, we show goal directed path planning results of HiLAM in two different environments, an indoor square maze used in rodent experiments and an outdoor arena more than two orders of magnitude larger than the indoor maze. Together these results bridge for the first time the gap between higher fidelity bio-inspired navigation models (HiLAM) and more abstracted but highly functional bio-inspired robotic mapping systems (RatSLAM), and move from simulated environments into real-world studies in rodent-sized arenas and beyond.
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Land-use regression (LUR) is a technique that can improve the accuracy of air pollution exposure assessment in epidemiological studies. Most LUR models are developed for single cities, which places limitations on their applicability to other locations. We sought to develop a model to predict nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations with national coverage of Australia by using satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns combined with other predictor variables. We used a generalised estimating equation (GEE) model to predict annual and monthly average ambient NO2 concentrations measured by a national monitoring network from 2006 through 2011. The best annual model explained 81% of spatial variation in NO2 (absolute RMS error=1.4 ppb), while the best monthly model explained 76% (absolute RMS error=1.9 ppb). We applied our models to predict NO2 concentrations at the ~350,000 census mesh blocks across the country (a mesh block is the smallest spatial unit in the Australian census). National population-weighted average concentrations ranged from 7.3 ppb (2006) to 6.3 ppb (2011). We found that a simple approach using tropospheric NO2 column data yielded models with slightly better predictive ability than those produced using a more involved approach that required simulation of surface-to-column ratios. The models were capable of capturing within-urban variability in NO2, and offer the ability to estimate ambient NO2 concentrations at monthly and annual time scales across Australia from 2006–2011. We are making our model predictions freely available for research.
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Study design Retrospective validation study. Objectives To propose a method to evaluate, from a clinical standpoint, the ability of a finite-element model (FEM) of the trunk to simulate orthotic correction of spinal deformity and to apply it to validate a previously described FEM. Summary of background data Several FEMs of the scoliotic spine have been described in the literature. These models can prove useful in understanding the mechanisms of scoliosis progression and in optimizing its treatment, but their validation has often been lacking or incomplete. Methods Three-dimensional (3D) geometries of 10 patients before and during conservative treatment were reconstructed from biplanar radiographs. The effect of bracing was simulated by modeling displacements induced by the brace pads. Simulated clinical indices (Cobb angle, T1–T12 and T4–T12 kyphosis, L1–L5 lordosis, apical vertebral rotation, torsion, rib hump) and vertebral orientations and positions were compared to those measured in the patients' 3D geometries. Results Errors in clinical indices were of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainties due to 3D reconstruction; for instance, Cobb angle was simulated with a root mean square error of 5.7°, and rib hump error was 5.6°. Vertebral orientation was simulated with a root mean square error of 4.8° and vertebral position with an error of 2.5 mm. Conclusions The methodology proposed here allowed in-depth evaluation of subject-specific simulations, confirming that FEMs of the trunk have the potential to accurately simulate brace action. These promising results provide a basis for ongoing 3D model development, toward the design of more efficient orthoses.
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Aerosol deposition in cylindrical tubes is a subject of interest to researchers and engineers in many applications of aerosol physics and metrology. Investigation of nano-particles in different aspects such as lungs, upper airways, batteries and vehicle exhaust gases is vital due the smaller size, adverse health effect and higher trouble for trapping than the micro-particles. The Lagrangian particle tracking provides an effective method for simulating the deposition of nano-particles as well as micro-particles as it accounts for the particle inertia effect as well as the Brownian excitation. However, using the Lagrangian approach for simulating ultrafine particles has been limited due to computational cost and numerical difficulties. In this paper, the deposition of nano-particles in cylindrical tubes under laminar condition is studied using the Lagrangian particle tracking method. The commercial Fluent software is used to simulate the fluid flow in the pipes and to study the deposition and dispersion of nano-particles. Different particle diameters as well as different flow rates are examined. The point analysis in a uniform flow is performed for validating the Brownian motion. The results show good agreement between the calculated deposition efficiency and the analytic correlations in the literature. Furthermore, for the nano-particles with the diameter more than 40 nm, the calculated deposition efficiency by the Lagrangian method is less than the analytic correlations based on Eulerian method due to statistical error or the inertia effect.