A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination puzzle in small and large samples. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the feasible bias-corrected average forecast in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from a well known survey is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the feasible bias-corrected average forecast.

Do equity and foreign currency risk premiums display common patterns?

In da Costa et al. (2006) we have shown how a same pricing kernel can account for the excess returns of the S&:P500 over the US short term bond and of the uncovered over the covered trading of foreign government bonds. In this paper we estimate and test the overidentifying restrictiom; of Euler equations associated with "ix different versions of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing I\Iodel. Our main finding is that the same (however often unreasonable) values for the parameters are estimated for ali models in both nmrkets. In most cases, the rejections or otherwise of overidentifying restrictions occurs for the two markets, suggesting that success and failure stories for the equity premium repeat themselves in foreign exchange markets. Our results corroborate the findings in da Costa et al. (2006) that indicate a strong similarity between the behavior of excess returns in the two markets when modeled as risk premiums, providing empirical grounds to believe that the proposed preference-based solutions to puzzles in domestic financiaI markets can certainly shed light on the Forward Premium Puzzle.

Qualidade de vida na perspectiva de idosos institucionalizados no Município de Natal - RN

A descriptive and exploratory Study, quantitative in nature, with the aim to assess the Quality of Life (QL) of the elderly leaving in a Long Residence Institution (LRI) according to their own perception. It was conducted in six Public Institutions of Long Residence for Seniors, in the municipality of Natal - RN, in the period of July to August 2007. The data was collected using two structured interview forms: the first, containing questions about socio-demographic aspects and the second - the WHOQUOL-OLD, prepared by the World Health Organization to assess elderly s quality of life. The reference population was 266 old persons, and a random sample, of 43, being 28 women and 15 men, who account for 30%. The results indicated there is a predominance of older women (65.1%) and the average age is 76.6 years; the predominant religion is the Catholic - 44.2% and, 32.6% are unmarried without children. As for schooling and precedence, 41.9% are illiterate and 67.4% come from the rural area. The time of residency in the institution goes between 1 to 5 years for 69.8% of the elderly, 37.2% of them residing in the institution for not having another option. Most elderly informed using medicines. 51.3% said they are taking anti-hypertensive. As for the other aspects of QL: sensory aspects, autonomy, past, present and future activities, social participation, death and dying and intimacy, the WHOQOL-OLD, showed an average total score of 52.9% (scale of 0 to 100), with a tendency to neutrality, denoting that the elderly, in this study, evaluated their QL as neither satisfactory or unsatisfactory. Of all the facets of the instrument of QL, the sensory facet secured the highest average scores (68,1%), showing that the elderly are "happy" in the situation in which they find themselves, not showing significant disabilities. The facet of autonomy, which refers to the independence and the ability to make decisions on their own life, received the lowest average scores (40.7%), showing the dissatisfaction of the elderly on this aspect. The evaluation of the elderly on other facets were: social participation (48.2%); activities past, present and future (44.6%) and intimacy (50.6%), all perceived as neither unsatisfactory or satisfactory. On the item death and dying, the elderly people declared themselves satisfied, with average score of 65.5%. The analysis of the reliability of the WHOQOL-OLD by the Cronbach Alpha showed 0.57, considering the 24 items that cover the instrument, showing regular internal reliability of the instrument, in our reality. The result is probably due to differences between the regions south and east and the broader sociocultural diversity. We believe that the elderly in this study, tended to realize their QL as neutral, considering it as neither unsatisfactory or satisfactory, result likely related to the resignation with the destine, characterized, at the time, by the finitude of life, feeling very common among elderly, or perhaps, even for an accommodation, often accompanied by discouragement, present in the daily life of many of them

The nitrogen sufficiency index underlying estimates of nitrogen fertilization requirements of common bean

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

New constraints on ages of glasses proposed as reference materials for fission-track dating

New analyses have been performed in order to enhance the data-set on the independent ages of four glasses that have been proposed as reference materials for fission-track dating. The results are as follows. Moldavite - repeated (40)Ar/(39)Ar age determinations on samples from deposits from Bohemia and Moravia yielded an average of 14.34 +/- 0.08 Ma. This datum agrees with other recent determinations and is significantly younger than the (40)Ar/(39)Ar age of 15.21 +/- 0.15 Ma determined in the early 1980s. Macusanite (Peru) -four K-Ar ages ranging from 5.44 +/- 0.06 to 5.72 +/- 0.12 Ma have been published previously. New (40)Ar/(39)Ar ages gave an average of 5.12 +/- 0.04 Ma. Plateau fission-track ages determined using the IRMM-540 certified glass and U and Th thin films for neutron fluence measurements agree better with these new (40)Ar/(39)Ar ages than the previously published ages. Roccastrada glass (Italy) - a new (40)Ar/(39)Ar age, 2.45 +/- 0.04 Ma, is consistent with previous determinations. The Quiron obsidian (Argentina) is a recently discovered glass that has been proposed as an additional reference material for its high spontaneous track density (around 100 000 cm(-2)). Defects that might produce spurious tracks are virtually absent. An independent (40)Ar/(39)Ar age of 8.77 +/- 0.09 Ma was determined and is recommended for this glass. We believe that these materials, which will be distributed upon request to fission-track groups, will be very useful for testing system calibrations and experimental procedures.

Candida spp.: manual identification (reference method) and automated identification (Vitek system platform)

Yeasts are becoming a common cause of nosocomial fungal infections that affect immunocompromised patients. Such infections can evolve into sepsis, whose mortality rate is high. This study aimed to evaluate the viability of Candida species identification by the automated system Vitek-Biomerieux (Durham, USA). Ninety-eight medical charts referencing the Candida spp. samples available for the study were retrospectively analyzed. The system Vitek-Biomerieux with Candida identification card is recommended for laboratory routine use and presents 80.6% agreement with the reference method. By separate analysis of species, 13.5% of C. parapsilosis samples differed from the reference method, while the Vitek system wrongly identified them as C. tropicalis, C. lusitaneae or as Candida albicans. C. glabrata presented a discrepancy of only one sample (25%), and was identified by Vitek as C. parapsilosis. C. guilliermondii also differed in only one sample (33.3%), being identified as Candida spp. All C. albicans, C. tropicalis and C. lusitaneae samples were identified correctly.

Common chromosomal imbalances and stemness-related protein expression markers in endometriotic lesions from different anatomical sites: the potential role of stem cells

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Implicações do uso de recptores GPS de navegação sem conhecimento de suas limitações e configurações básicas

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Application of the concepts of agro-tourism, agricultural diversification and food and nutrition for the development of Caribbean communities with reference to standards and priority setting

Introduction There is a renewed call for a new approach to development with emphasis on community empowerment or participation, with the belief that more sustainable activities will be undertaken in those communities. Much of that call, however, is coming not from within the communities, but primarily from advocates of change who may have little to do with those communities. What then will the new approach bring apart from a change in who are the decision-makers? And how do we ensure that the change that is called for will, in fact, bring added benefits to the communities themselves? To be sure, there are some successful stories of a community approach to problem solving. However, there are also many more stories of project failures. Serious analytical work, therefore, needs to be done to determine the factors that promote a successful community-based approach; when this approach should be used; and the methodology that should be employed. In an attempt to determine these factors, a brief analysis will be made of some of the governing structures in the subregion and their possible impact on the proposed new approach. Some of the earlier efforts at stakeholder and community approach to projects will also be examined as well as the new development strategy that is prompting the call for this new paradigm. The new paradigm focuses to a large extent on decision-making and community empowerment. With few exceptions, it is short on the promotion of tangible activities that are based on the resource inventory of the communities. This is not surprising, since, as noted before, the advocates of community empowerment may have very little connection with the communities and, in most cases, are unfamiliar with the resource base. Hence, a theoretical case is made, suggesting more style than substance. Another obvious shortcoming of this new paradigm is its continued over- dependence on assistance from the outside to build communities. Externally funded projects, seminars and meetings outside of the communities and foreign technical assistance continue to dominate these projects. While, of course, all communities have basic common needs such as water, health, education and electricity, there is sufficient diversity within communities to allow for tailoring of activities and programmes such that their differences become assets. It is in that context, that agro-tourism activities, standards, agricultural diversification, food and nutrition and priority setting have been chosen as aspects and activities for promoting community development, drawing on the various strengths of communities, rural or urban.

Estimativas da condutividade térmica dos minerais e rochas e influência de parâmetros térmicos e petrofísicos na resistividade aparente da formação

O presente estudo realiza estimativas da condutividade térmica dos principais minerais formadores de rochas, bem como estimativas da condutividade média da fase sólida de cinco litologias básicas (arenitos, calcários, dolomitos, anidritas e litologias argilosas). Alguns modelos térmicos foram comparados entre si, possibilitando a verificação daquele mais apropriado para representar o agregado de minerais e fluidos que compõem as rochas. Os resultados obtidos podem ser aplicados a modelamentos térmicos os mais variados. A metodologia empregada baseia-se em um algoritmo de regressão não-linear denominado de Busca Aleatória Controlada. O comportamento do algoritmo é avaliado para dados sintéticos antes de ser usado em dados reais. O modelo usado na regressão para obter a condutividade térmica dos minerais é o modelo geométrico médio. O método de regressão, usado em cada subconjunto litológico, forneceu os seguintes valores para a condutividade térmica média da fase sólida: arenitos 5,9 ± 1,33 W/mK, calcários 3.1 ± 0.12 W/mK, dolomitos 4.7 ± 0.56 W/mK, anidritas 6.3 ± 0.27 W/mK e para litologias argilosas 3.4 ± 0.48 W/mK. Na sequência, são fornecidas as bases para o estudo da difusão do calor em coordenadas cilíndricas, considerando o efeito de invasão do filtrado da lama na formação, através de uma adaptação da simulação de injeção de poços proveniente das teorias relativas à engenharia de reservatório. Com isto, estimam-se os erros relativos sobre a resistividade aparente assumindo como referência a temperatura original da formação. Nesta etapa do trabalho, faz-se uso do método de diferenças finitas para avaliar a distribuição de temperatura poço-formação. A simulação da invasão é realizada, em coordenadas cilíndricas, através da adaptação da equação de Buckley-Leverett em coordenadas cartesianas. Efeitos como o aparecimento do reboco de lama na parede do poço, gravidade e pressão capilar não são levados em consideração. A partir das distribuições de saturação e temperatura, obtém-se a distribuição radial de resistividade, a qual é convolvida com a resposta radial da ferramenta de indução (transmissor-receptor) resultando na resistividade aparente da formação. Admitindo como referência a temperatura original da formação, são obtidos os erros relativos da resistividade aparente. Através da variação de alguns parâmetros, verifica-se que a porosidade e a saturação original da formação podem ser responsáveis por enormes erros na obtenção da resistividade, principalmente se tais "leituras" forem realizadas logo após a perfuração (MWD). A diferença de temperatura entre poço e formação é a principal causadora de tais erros, indicando que em situações onde esta diferença de temperatura seja grande, perfilagens com ferramentas de indução devam ser realizadas de um a dois dias após a perfuração do poço.

Evaluation of cases of pemphigus vulgaris and pemphigus foliaceus from a reference service in Pará state, Brazil

BACKGROUND: Pemphigusis a bullous, rare and chronic autoimmune disease. There are two major forms of pemphigus: vulgaris and foliaceus. Epidemiological data and clinical outcome in patients diagnosed in the Brazilian Amazon states are still rare. OBJECTIVES: To study the occurrence of the disease during the study period and analyze the epidemiological profile of patients, the most common subtype of pemphigus, and the clinical evolution of patients. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of medical records of hospitalized patients with pemphigus foliaceus and pemphigus vulgaris in the period from 2003 to 2010 in Dermatology Service of Hospital Fundação Santa Casa de Misericórdia do Pará, Belém, Northern Brazil. RESULTS: We found a total of 20 cases of pemphigus during the study period, 8 of which were of foliaceus pemphigus and 12 of vulgaris pemphigus. Pemphigus foliaceus had the predominance of male patients (75%), showed satisfactory clinical evolution, and was characterized by absence of pediatric cases. Pemphigus vulgaris affected more women (66.7%), showed mean hospital stay of 1 to 3 months (50%), and there were three cases of death (25%). The prescribed immunosuppressive drugs included prednisone with or without combination of azathioprine and/or dapsone. Sepsis was associated with 100% of the deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of the disease is rare, there are no familiar/endemic outbreaks in the sample. Evolution is usually favorable, but secondary infection is associated with worse prognosis. The choice of best drugs to treat pemphigus remains controversial.

Avaliação da exposição ao mercúrio em famílias de pescadores em Imperatriz, Maranhão

Na região do Tocantins, comunidades ribeirinhas com elevado consumo em pescado através da dieta, localizadas distantes de área de mineração de ouro, no Município de Imperatriz do Maranhão podem estar expostas ao mercúrio, tendo em vista a influencia de outros fatores contaminantes do ambiente incluindo a atividades de hidrelétricas e possíveis queimadas da floresta, nessa região. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a exposição ao mercúrio em famílias de pescadores do Distrito Beira Rio, em Imperatriz do Maranhão. Realizou-se um estudo transversal envolvendo famílias de pescadores residentes na comunidade Beira Rio, localizada às margens do Rio Tocantins no município de Imperatriz, Maranhão. O perfil sócio-demográfico foi comum ao da população geral brasileira e similares à população ribeirinha situada em outras bacias. O perfil alimentar não fugiu a regra do padrão alimentar dos ribeirinhos tendo o pescado como a principal fonte de proteína alimentar. A espécie piscívora mostrou diferença significativa (p<0,01) em relação às espécies herbívora/omnívoras e detrívoras estudadas, e a espécie zooplanctófaga mostrou diferença significativa (p<0,01) em relação as duas espécies anteriormente citadas. Dentre as 25 famílias avaliadas a menor concentração média de Hgtotal /família foi 0,186 ± 0,043μg/g e a maior foi 5,477± 2,896μg/g. Mesmo dentro de limites aceitáveis, a concentração média de Hgtotal apresentada pelos homens (1,01+1,97 ppm) foi mais alta que a das mulheres (0,69+ 0,82 ppm) (p<0,05).Conclui-se que famílias de pescadores de Imperatriz possuem baixos níveis de exposição ao mercúrio em virtude do consumo alimentar de peixes com baixos níveis de contaminação, incluindo as espécies piscívoras, que encontravam-se abaixo do limite de segurança para consumo humano estabelecido pelas normas brasileiras, podendo servir de referencia para outros estudos.

Social support and common mental disorder among medical students

INTRODUÇÃO:Diferentes formas de sofrimento psíquico têm sido identificadas em estudantes da área da saúde, em especial no curso de Medicina.OBJETIVO:Estimar a prevalência de sofrimento psíquico entre estudantes de Medicina em uma faculdade no Sudeste do Brasil e avaliar sua associação com apoio social.MÉTODO:Trata-se de um estudo transversal. Foram aplicados questionários para alunos do 1º ao 6º ano do curso de Medicina da Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho, investigando-se características demográficas relacionadas ao curso e à adaptação à cidade. Sofrimento psíquico foi investigado na forma de Transtorno Mental Comum (TMC), avaliado por meio do Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20). Apoio social foi avaliado com a Escala de Apoio Social (EAS). As associações entre o desfecho e as variáveis explanatórias foram analisadas por meio do teste do χ2 e, na análise multivariada, por meio da Regressão Logística, com p < 0,05.RESULTADOS:A taxa de resposta foi de 80,7%, não havendo diferença estatística entre a mostra e a população-alvo no que diz respeito ao gênero (p = 0,78). A média de idade foi de 22 anos (desvio padrão - DP = 2,2) com predomínio de mulheres (58,2%) e estudantes que vivem com amigos (62%). A prevalência de TMC foi de 44,9% (IC95% 40,2 - 49,6). Após a análise multivariada, mantiveram-se associados a TMC: sentir-se rejeitado no último ano (p < 0,001), ter pensado ou pensar em abandonar o curso (p < 0,001) e interação, avaliada pela EAS (p = 0,002).CONCLUSÕES:A prevalência de TMC entre estudantes de Medicina mostrou-se elevada, identificando-se o apoio social insuficiente como fator de risco. Esses achados sugerem que intervenções voltadas para propiciar melhores condições de interação social entre estudantes poderiam ser benéficas, diminuindo a prevalência de TMC nesse grupo.

Análise da sensibilidade dos componentes da equação de Hargreaves - Samani para a região de Bebedouro - SP

The estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) subsidizes the calculations of water consumption in irrigated agriculture. The use of simpler methodologies are common however should be carefully studied. The present study evaluated the sensitivity of the Hargreaves -Samani equation compared to the standard Penman-Monteith -FAO to estimate ETo for the climatic conditions of the Bebedouro-SP region, simulating the effects of increasing and decreasing 5 % in the temperatures, resulting in ten different scenarios (PM -Penman-Montheit -FAO; S0 -original Hargreaves Samani; S1 to S8 -modified Hargreaves Samani). The obtained results of sensitivity, linear regression, accuracy and concordance index, were compared. We concluded that the Hargreaves -Samani equation overestimates the monthly values of the ETo in 13% compared to the standard method. A variation of 5% in maximum and minimum temperatures resulted in errors of up to 1 mm day-1 (monthly average) and this increase is more expressive in maximum temperature.

Avaliação dos padrões de vitalidade neonatal, hemogasometria e eletrocardiografia em equinos da raça Paint Horse

Pós-graduação em Medicina Veterinária - FMVZ