LSI-R Scores: Change Matters - Part III, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, June 2009

In this issue, we take a closer look at the individual risk factors measured by the LSI-R. There are several risk factors that the LSI-R assessment tool measures: Criminal History; Education/Employment; Financial; Family/Marital; Accommodations (Living Situation); Leisure/Recreation; Companions; Alcohol/Drug Problem; Emotional/Personal; and Attitudes/Orientation.

Technological Change and Immigration

We develop a simple model where two technologies are available to produce the same good, and we study under what conditions both will be used. We use the model to analyze the consequences of the simultaneous use of two different technologies for the economic variables and economic growth. Finally, we explore how migrations of factors affect the technological change and the performance of the economy.

The Half-Life of Election Pledges : What makes MPs change their positions?

"Thou shalt not bear false witness," as we all know. Yet changing one's mind in case of respectable reasons seems to be allowed. Which is good news for politicians, but reduces the effectiveness of prospective voting, i.e. the focus on "the commitments of candidates to take actions that citizens desire to be taken" (Powell 2000: 9). This may be bad news for voters. By comparing pre-election commitments of Swiss members of parliament (MPs) with actual voting behaviour in the lower house of parliament, the following article explores the question how much confidence voters can have in prospective voting and what factors explain (non-)fulfilment of election pledges.

Stage of change of cigarette smoking in alcohol-dependent patients.

Despite the heavy burden of tobacco-related problems in alcohol-dependent patients, little effort has been directed toward reducing the prevalence of smoking in these patients. It seems reasonable to develop nicotine addiction treatments for alcohol-dependent patients based on the smoker's stage of change. To assess the stage of change for tobacco consumption and possible quitting barriers in alcohol-dependent patients, 88 consecutively admitted inpatients of a Swiss university-affiliated alcohol withdrawal clinic were interviewed with a semistructured schedule. More than half of the alcohol-dependent smokers (50.7%) considered the possibility of smoking cessation or had already decided to stop, although the majority (83.1%) were highly dependent smokers. Positive reinforcers were factors influencing motivation both to stop smoking as well as to continue smoking, whereas negative reinforcers had no influence. As recovering alcoholic patients are often interested in smoking cessation and the introduction of nicotine treatment interventions has been shown not to jeopardize the outcome of alcohol treatment, alcohol treatment programs should include counseling for smoking cessation. Education and training for staff is essential, as their beliefs and habits remain an important barrier.

Time for change: a roadmap to guide the implementation of the World Anti-Doping Code 2015

A medical and scientific multidisciplinary consensus meeting was held from 29 to 30 November 2013 on Anti-Doping in Sport at the Home of FIFA in Zurich, Switzerland, to create a roadmap for the implementation of the 2015 World Anti-Doping Code. The consensus statement and accompanying papers set out the priorities for the antidoping community in research, science and medicine. The participants achieved consensus on a strategy for the implementation of the 2015 World Anti-Doping Code. Key components of this strategy include: (1) sport-specific risk assessment, (2) prevalence measurement, (3) sport-specific test distribution plans, (4) storage and reanalysis, (5) analytical challenges, (6) forensic intelligence, (7) psychological approach to optimise the most deterrent effect, (8) the Athlete Biological Passport (ABP) and confounding factors, (9) data management system (Anti-Doping Administration & Management System (ADAMS), (10) education, (11) research needs and necessary advances, (12) inadvertent doping and (13) management and ethics: biological data. True implementation of the 2015 World Anti-Doping Code will depend largely on the ability to align thinking around these core concepts and strategies. FIFA, jointly with all other engaged International Federations of sports (Ifs), the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), are ideally placed to lead transformational change with the unwavering support of the wider antidoping community. The outcome of the consensus meeting was the creation of the ad hoc Working Group charged with the responsibility of moving this agenda forward.

The neuroanatomical model of post-stroke depression: towards a change of focus?

One third of all stroke survivors develop post-stroke depression (PSD). Depressive symptoms adversely affect rehabilitation and significantly increase risk of death in the post-stroke period. One of the theoretical views on the determinants of PSD focuses on psychosocial factors like disability and social support. Others emphasize biologic mechanisms such as disruption of biogenic amine neurotransmission and release of proinflammatory cytokines. The "lesion location" perspective attempts to establish a relationship between localization of stroke and occurrence of depression, but empirical results remain contradictory. These divergences are partly related to the fact that neuroimaging methods, unlike neuropathology, are not able to assess precisely the full extent of stroke-affected areas and do not specify the different types of vascular lesions. We provide here an overview of the known phenomenological profile and current pathogenic hypotheses of PSD and present neuropathological data challenging the classic "single-stroke"-based neuroanatomical model of PSD. We suggest that vascular burden due to the chronic accumulation of small macrovascular and microvascular lesions may be a crucial determinant of the development and evolution of PSD.

Factors favoring a degradation or an improvement in activities of daily living (ADL) performance among nursing home (NH) residents: A survival analysis.

Different factors influence ADL performance among nursing home (NH) residents in long term care. The aim was to investigate which factors were associated with a significant change of ADL performance in NH residents, and whether or not these factors were gender-specific. The design was a survival analysis. The 10,199 participants resided in ninety Swiss NHs. Their ADL performance had been assessed by the Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS) in the period from 1997 to 2007. Relevant change in ADL performance was defined as 2 levels of change on the ADL scale between two successive assessments. The occurrence of either an improvement or a degradation of the ADL status) was analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. The analysis included a total of 10,199 NH residents. Each resident received between 2 and 23 assessments. Poor balance, incontinence, impaired cognition, a low BMI, impaired vision, no daily contact with proxies, impaired hearing and the presence of depression were, by hierarchical order, significant risk factors for NH residents to experience a degradation of ADL performance. Residents, who were incontinent, cognitively impaired or had a high BMI were significantly less likely to improve their ADL abilities. Male residents with cancer were prone to see their ADL improve. The year of NH entry was significantly associated with either degradation or improvement of ADL performance. Measures aiming at improving balance and continence, promoting physical activity, providing appropriate nourishment and cognitive enhancement are important for ADL performance in NH residents.

Pharmacist interventions to improve cardiovascular disease risk factors in diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

OBJECTIVE: This systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assesses the effect of pharmacist care on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors among outpatients with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched. Pharmacist interventions were classified, and a meta-analysis of mean changes of blood pressure (BP), total cholesterol (TC), LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and BMI was performed using random-effects models. RESULTS: The meta-analysis included 15 RCTs (9,111 outpatients) in which interventions were conducted exclusively by pharmacists in 8 studies and in collaboration with physicians, nurses, dietitians, or physical therapists in 7 studies. Pharmacist interventions included medication management, educational interventions, feedback to physicians, measurement of CVD risk factors, or patient-reminder systems. Compared with usual care, pharmacist care was associated with significant reductions for systolic BP (12 studies with 1,894 patients; -6.2 mmHg [95% CI -7.8 to -4.6]); diastolic BP (9 studies with 1,496 patients; -4.5 mmHg [-6.2 to -2.8]); TC (8 studies with 1,280 patients; -15.2 mg/dL [-24.7 to -5.7]); LDL cholesterol (9 studies with 8,084 patients; -11.7 mg/dL [-15.8 to -7.6]); and BMI (5 studies with 751 patients; -0.9 kg/m(2) [-1.7 to -0.1]). Pharmacist care was not associated with a significant change in HDL cholesterol (6 studies with 826 patients; 0.2 mg/dL [-1.9 to 2.4]). CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis supports pharmacist interventions-alone or in collaboration with other health care professionals-to improve major CVD risk factors among outpatients with diabetes.

Distribution of metals exposure and associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study".

BACKGROUND: Metals are known endocrine disruptors and have been linked to cardiometabolic diseases via multiple potential mechanisms, yet few human studies have both the exposure variability and biologically-relevant phenotype data available. We sought to examine the distribution of metals exposure and potential associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study" (METS), a prospective cohort study designed to assess energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five countries at different stages of social and economic development. METHODS: Young adults (25-45 years) of African descent were enrolled (N = 500 from each site) in: Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the U.S.A. We randomly selected 150 blood samples (N = 30 from each site) to determine concentrations of selected metals (arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury) in a subset of participants at baseline and to examine associations with cardiometabolic risk factors. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range) metal concentrations (μg/L) were: arsenic 8.5 (7.7); cadmium 0.01 (0.8); lead 16.6 (16.1); and mercury 1.5 (5.0). There were significant differences in metals concentrations by: site location, paid employment status, education, marital status, smoking, alcohol use, and fish intake. After adjusting for these covariates plus age and sex, arsenic (OR 4.1, 95% C.I. 1.2, 14.6) and lead (OR 4.0, 95% C.I. 1.6, 9.6) above the median values were significantly associated with elevated fasting glucose. These associations increased when models were further adjusted for percent body fat: arsenic (OR 5.6, 95% C.I. 1.5, 21.2) and lead (OR 5.0, 95% C.I. 2.0, 12.7). Cadmium and mercury were also related with increased odds of elevated fasting glucose, but the associations were not statistically significant. Arsenic was significantly associated with increased odds of low HDL cholesterol both with (OR 8.0, 95% C.I. 1.8, 35.0) and without (OR 5.9, 95% C.I. 1.5, 23.1) adjustment for percent body fat. CONCLUSIONS: While not consistent for all cardiometabolic disease markers, these results are suggestive of potentially important associations between metals exposure and cardiometabolic risk. Future studies will examine these associations in the larger cohort over time.

Auxin response factors ARF6 and ARF8 promote jasmonic acid production and flower maturation.

Pollination in flowering plants requires that anthers release pollen when the gynoecium is competent to support fertilization. We show that in Arabidopsis thaliana, two paralogous auxin response transcription factors, ARF6 and ARF8, regulate both stamen and gynoecium maturation. arf6 arf8 double-null mutant flowers arrested as infertile closed buds with short petals, short stamen filaments, undehisced anthers that did not release pollen and immature gynoecia. Numerous developmentally regulated genes failed to be induced. ARF6 and ARF8 thus coordinate the transition from immature to mature fertile flowers. Jasmonic acid (JA) measurements and JA feeding experiments showed that decreased jasmonate production caused the block in pollen release, but not the gynoecium arrest. The double mutant had altered auxin responsive gene expression. However, whole flower auxin levels did not change during flower maturation, suggesting that auxin might regulate flower maturation only under specific environmental conditions, or in localized organs or tissues of flowers. arf6 and arf8 single mutants and sesquimutants (homozygous for one mutation and heterozygous for the other) had delayed stamen development and decreased fecundity, indicating that ARF6 and ARF8 gene dosage affects timing of flower maturation quantitatively.

Viticulture under climate change : understanding vulnerability and adaptive capacity of wineries and growers. A case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia

Climate change may pose challenges and opportunities to viticulture, and much research has focused in studying the likely impacts on grapes and wine production in different regions worldwide. This study assesses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the viticulture sector under changing climate conditions, based on a case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia. Farm assets, livelihood strategies, farmer-market interactions and climate changes perceptions are analysed through semi-structured interviews with different types of wineries and growers. Both types of actors are equally exposed to biophysical stressors but unevenly affected by socioeconomic changes. While wineries are vulnerable because of the current economic crisis and the lack of diversification of their work, which may affect their income or production, growers are mainly affected by the low prices of their products and the lack of fix contracts. These socioeconomic stressors strongly condition their capacity to adapt to climate change, meaning that growers prioritize their immediate income problems, rather than future socioeconomic or climate threats. Therefore, growers undertake reactive adaptation to climate changing conditions, mainly based on ancient knowledge, whilst wineries combine both reactive and anticipatory adaptation practices. These circumstances should be addressed in order to allow better anticipatory adaptation to be implemented, thus avoiding future climate threats.

Assessing farmers' vulnerability to climate change : a case study in Karnataka, India

In the context of observed climate change impacts and their effect on agriculture and crop production, this study intends to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods through a study case in Karnataka, India. The social approach of climate change vulnerability in this study case includes defining and exploring factors that determine farmers’ vulnerability in four villages. Key informant interviews, farmer workshops and structured household interviews were used for data collection. To analyse the data, we adapted and applied three vulnerability indices: Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI-IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI), and used descriptive statistical methods. The data was analysed at two scales: whole sample-level and household level. The results from applying the indices for the whole-sample level show that this community's vulnerability to climate change is moderate, whereas the household-level results show that most of the households' vulnerability is high-very high, while 15 key drivers of vulnerability were identified. Results and limitations of the study are discussed under the rural livelihoods framework, in which the indices are based, allowing a better understanding of the social behaviouraltrends, as well as an holistic and integrated view of the climate change, agriculture, and livelihoods processes shaping vulnerability. We conclude that these indices, although a straightforward method to assess vulnerability, have limitations that could account for inaccuracies and inability to be standardised for benchmarking, therefore we stress the need for further research.

Effect of once-yearly zoledronic acid five milligrams on fracture risk and change in femoral neck bone mineral density.

CONTEXT: In the Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic Acid Once Yearly - Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT), zoledronic acid (ZOL) 5 mg significantly reduced fracture risk. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to identify factors associated with greater efficacy during ZOL 5 mg treatment. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: We conducted a subgroup analysis (preplanned and post hoc) of a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 36-month trial in 7765 women with postmenopausal osteoporosis. Intervention: A single infusion of ZOL 5 mg or placebo was administered at baseline, 12, and 24 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary endpoints were new vertebral fracture and hip fracture. Secondary endpoints were nonvertebral fracture and change in femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Baseline risk factor subgroups were age, BMD T-score and vertebral fracture status, total hip BMD, race, weight, geographical region, smoking, height loss, history of falls, physical activity, prior bisphosphonates, creatinine clearance, body mass index, and concomitant osteoporosis medications. RESULTS: Greater ZOL induced effects on vertebral fracture risk were seen with younger age (treatment-by-subgroup interaction, P = 0.05), normal creatinine clearance (P = 0.04), and body mass index >or= 25 kg/m(2) (P = 0.02). There were no significant treatment-factor interactions for hip or nonvertebral fracture or for change in BMD. CONCLUSIONS: ZOL appeared more effective in preventing vertebral fracture in younger women, overweight/obese women, and women with normal renal function. ZOL had similar effects irrespective of fracture risk factors or femoral neck BMD.

Impaired chemical coupling of cerebral blood flow is compatible with intact neurological outcome in neonates with perinatal risk factors.

Early detection of pathophysiological factors associated with permanent brain damage is a major issue in neonatal medicine. The aim of our study was to evaluate the significance of the CO2 reactivity of cerebral blood flow (CBF) in neonates with perinatal risk factors. Fourteen ventilated neonates with perinatal risk factors (pathological cardiotocogramm, low cord pH, postpartal encephalopathy) were enrolled into this prospective study. The study was performed 18-123 h after birth. CBF was measured using the noninvasive intravenous 133Xe method. Two measurements were taken with a minimal PaCO2-difference of 5 mm Hg. From the two CBF values the CO2 reactivity was calculated. Outcome was evaluated 1 year after birth. The CBF values at a lower PaCO2 ranged from 6.6 to 115. 2 ml/100 g brain issue/min (median = 18.2) and at a higher PaCO2 level from 7.1 to 125.7 ml/100 g brain tissue/min (median = 18.75). The calculated CO2 reactivity ranged from -9.6 to 6.6% (median 1.1%) change in CBF/mm Hg change in PaCO2. CO2 reactivity correlated with lowest pH (r2 = 0.35, p = 0.02). Two infants died, one of neonatal sepsis, the other of heart failure. Neurological outcome at the age of 1 year was normal in 11 patients, 1 had severe cerebral palsy. From the 12 surviving patients the patient with severe neurological deficit showed the highest CBF values (125.7 ml/100 g/min). Impaired chemical coupling of cerebral blood flow is compatible with intact neurological outcome in neonates with perinatal risk factors. CO2 reactivity in these newborns correlates with the lowest pH and may reflect the severity of perinatal asphyxia.

Reduction in the use of diagnostic tests in infants with risk factors for early-onset neonatal sepsis does not delay antibiotic treatment.

Despite a low positive predictive value, diagnostic tests such as complete blood count (CBC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are commonly used to evaluate whether infants with risk factors for early-onset neonatal sepsis (EOS) should be treated with antibiotics. We investigated the impact of implementing a protocol aiming at reducing the number of diagnostic tests in infants with risk factors for EOS in order to compare the diagnostic performance of repeated clinical examination with CBC and CRP measurement. The primary outcome was the time between birth and the first dose of antibiotics in infants treated for suspected EOS. Among the 11,503 infants born at ≥35 weeks during the study period, 222 were treated with antibiotics for suspected EOS. The proportion of infants receiving antibiotics for suspected EOS was 2.1% and 1.7% before and after the change of protocol (p = 0.09). Reduction of diagnostic tests was associated with earlier antibiotic treatment in infants treated for suspected EOS (hazard ratio 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-2.07; p <0.001), and in infants with neonatal infection (hazard ratio 2.20; 95% CI 1.19-4.06; p = 0.01). There was no difference in the duration of hospital stay nor in the proportion of infants requiring respiratory or cardiovascular support before and after the change of protocol. Reduction of diagnostic tests such as CBC and CRP does not delay initiation of antibiotic treatment in infants with suspected EOS. The importance of clinical examination in infants with risk factors for EOS should be emphasised.