Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning

We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children’s inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey → predator) or diagnostic (predator → prey), and the property that participants reasoned about established either a taxonomic or causal context. There was a causal asymmetry effect across all age groups, with more causal choices when the causal link was predictive than when it was diagnostic. Furthermore, context-sensitive causal reasoning showed a curvilinear development, with causal choices being most frequent for 8-year-olds regardless of context. Causal inductions decreased thereafter because 12-year-olds and adults made more taxonomic choices when reasoning in the taxonomic context. These findings suggest that simple causal relations may often be the default knowledge structure in young children’s inductive reasoning, that sensitivity to causal direction is present early on, and that children over-generalize their causal knowledge when reasoning.

Temporal and statistical information in causal structure learning

Three experiments examined children’s and adults’ abilities to use statistical and temporal information to distinguish between common cause and causal chain structures. In Experiment 1, participants were provided with conditional probability information and/or temporal information and asked to infer the causal structure of a three-variable mechanical system that operated probabilistically. Participants of all ages preferentially relied on the temporal pattern of events in their inferences, even if this conflicted with statistical information. In Experiments 2 and 3, participants observed a series of interventions on the system, which in these experiments operated deterministically. In Experiment 2, participants found it easier to use temporal pattern information than statistical information provided as a result of interventions. In Experiment 3, in which no temporal pattern information was provided, children from 6-7 years, but not younger children, were able to use intervention information to make causal chain judgments, although they had difficulty when the structure was a common cause. The findings suggest that participants, and children in particular, may find it more difficult to use statistical information than temporal pattern information because of its demands on information processing resources. However, there may also be an inherent preference for temporal information.

Genetic Evidence for a Causal Role of Obesity in Diabetic Kidney Disease

Obesity has been posited as an independent risk factor for diabetic kidney disease (DKD), but establishing causality from observational data is problematic. We aimed to test whether obesity is causally related to DKD using Mendelian randomization, which exploits the random assortment of genes during meiosis. In 6,049 subjects with type 1 diabetes, we used a weighted genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 32 validated BMI loci as an instrument to test the relationship of BMI with macroalbuminuria, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), or DKD defined as presence of macroalbuminuria or ESRD. We compared these results with cross-sectional and longitudinal observational associations. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated a U-shaped relationship of BMI with development of macroalbuminuria, ESRD, or DKD over time. Cross-sectional observational analysis showed no association with overall DKD, higher odds of macroalbuminuria (for every 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI, odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07, P < 0.001), and lower odds of ESRD (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.97, P < 0.001). Mendelian randomization analysis showed a 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI conferring an increased risk in macroalbuminuria (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.11-1.45, P = 0.001), ESRD (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.20-1.72, P < 0.001), and DKD (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.17-1.51, P < 0.001). Our results provide genetic evidence for a causal link between obesity and DKD in type 1 diabetes. As obesity prevalence rises, this finding predicts an increase in DKD prevalence unless intervention should occur.

Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors.

Children's use of interventions to learn causal structure

Children aged between 5 and 8 years freely intervened on a three-variable causal system, with their task being to discover whether it was a common-cause structure or one of two causal chains. From 6-7 years, children were able to use information from their interventions to correctly disambiguate the structure of a causal chain. We used a Bayesian model to examine children’s interventions on the system; this showed that with development children became more efficient in producing the interventions needed to disambiguate the causal structure and that the quality of interventions, as measured by their informativeness, improved developmentally. The latter measure was a significant predictor of children’s correct inferences about the causal structure. A second experiment showed that levels of performance were not reduced in a task in which children did not select and carry out interventions themselves, indicating no advantage for self-directed learning. However, children’s performance was not related to intervention quality in these circumstances, suggesting that children learn in a different way when they carry out interventions themselves.

Moral asymmetries in judgments of agency withstand ludicrous causal deviance

Americans have been shown to attribute greater intentionality to immoral than to amoral actions in cases of causal deviance, that is, cases where a goal is satisfied in a way that deviates from initially planned means (e.g., a gunman wants to hit a target and his hand slips, but the bullet ricochets off a rock into the target). However, past research has yet to assess whether this asymmetry persists in cases of extreme causal deviance. Here, we manipulated the level of mild to extreme causal deviance of an immoral versus amoral act. The asymmetry in attributions of intentionality was observed at all but the
most extreme level of causal deviance, and, as we hypothesized, was mediated by attributions of Blame/credit and judgments of action performance. These findings are discussed as they support a multiple-concepts interpretation of the asymmetry, wherein blame renders a naïve concept of intentional action (the outcome matches the intention) more salient than a composite concept (the outcome matches the intention and was brought about by planned means), and in terms of their implications for cross-cultural research on judgments of agency.

Signal Reception Characteristics in the Proximity of Alice and Bob for Secure Indoor Peer-to-Peer Communications At 2.45 GHz

Mutual variation of the received signal which occurs as a consequence of the channel reciprocity property has recently been proposed as a viable method for secret key generation. However, this cannot be strictly maintained in practice as the property is applicable only in the absence of interference. To ensure the propagation defined key remains secret, one requirement is that there remain high degrees of uncertainty between the legitimate users channel response and that of any eavesdropper's. In this paper, we investigate whether such de-correlation occurs for an indoor point-to-point link at 2.45 GHz. This is achieved by computing the localized correlation coefficient between the simultaneous channel response measured by the legitimate users and that of multiple distributed eavesdroppers for static and dynamic scenarios.

Morphobiometric and molecular characterization of Bursaphelenchus Fuchs, 1937 (Nematoda: Aphelenchoididae) species associated with Pinus pinaster Ainton in Portugal

Abstract - The genus Bursaphelenchus comprises almost 100 species mainly from the northern hemisphere, with conifers as the most important hosts. Among the various nematode species, the pine wood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, is the casual agent of pine wilt disease (PWD), and the most important forest pest for pines worldwide, classified as an A1 quarantine organism within the European Union. In 1999 this nematode was detected for the first time in Portugal and Europa associated with maritime pine, Pinus pinaster. Following detection, a national program denominated "Programa Nacional de Luta contra o Nemátodo da Madeira do Pinheiro" (PROLUNP) was created to, among other objectives, determine the distribution of the PWN and its associated vector(s) and host(s), and therefore intensive surveys covering the entire country were conducted with thousands of wood samples and suspected insects being analyzed. This thesis presents the listing, distribution, frequency and the insects associated with Bursaphelenchus species found associated with maritime pine in Portugal, identifying and characterizing the various species by morphological, biometrical and molecular biology (ITS-RFLP and rDNA sequencing analysis) techniques. To achieve the objectives, a total of 4813 maritime pine wood samples and 3294 insects from 22 species and six families were individually analyzed. A total of nine Bursaphelenchus species were found, namely: B. antoniae, B. hellenicus, B. leoni, B. mucronatus, B. pinasteri, B. sexdentati, B. teratospicularis, B. tusciae and B. xylophilus, all of them (with the exception of B. xylophilus) being new records for Portugal. Some of the species appear to have a widespread distribution, such as B. leoni, B. teratospicularis and B. tusciae while others were very rarely found and apparently have a localized distribution range within the country, namely B. antoniae and B. mucronatus. The majority of the species is characteristic of the Mediterranean region and can also be found in countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, reflecting the affinity of our fauna with those locations. The association of B. hellenicus and B. tusciae with maritime pine is here reported for the first time. Six of the Bursaphelenchus species were also found associated with insects, mainly from the family Scolytidae (Coleoptera). Some of these interactions were described for the first time, namely: B. hellenicus with both Ips sexdentatus and Hylurgus ligniperda, B. sexdentati with both H. ligniperda and Orthotomicus erosus and B. tusciae with H. ligniperda. The exclusive association of B. xylophilus with the cerambycid Monochamus galloprovincialis was also confirmed. The nematode's dauer juveniles were usually found in low numbers in the insect vectors (ca 10-100 per insect), although for B. xylophilus a few thousand specimens per insect were sometimes found. The location of the dauer juveniles differed according to the species, although they were more common under the elytra and wings of the adult insects. A species new to science was detected and formally described as B. antoniae, associated with Hylobius sp. (Coleoptera; Curculionidae) beetles. Morphologically, this new species is very similar to B. hylobianum, although it's distinct ITS-RFLP molecular pattern (with only the enzyme Haelll producing comparable restriction bands) and the failure of hybridization supported the two species as distinct entities. Additional phylogenetic analysis of the 18S rDNA sequence further supported the taxonomical proximity of B. antoniae with B. hylobianum. Concerning the PWN, detailed studies on the development and morphology of B. xylophilus were conducted, and comparative measurements of field-collected and laboratory-maintained populations demonstrated that nematodes from the second group displayed larger size in all morphometric parameters, which could derive from more adequate conditions of nourishment and/or temperature. Taxonomical studies on the development stages of B. xylophilus confirmed the existence of four propagative juvenile stages (J1,J2,J3 and J4), an adult stage with both sexes and two dispersal stages (jIII e jIV), with the measurements of the gonad length allowing the separation of the propagative stages. It is hoped that the acquired knowledge will be useful on future surveys of nematodes of the Bursaphelenchus genus collected from either wood material or insect vectors, and facilitate the correct distinction and identification of the various species which are now known to occur. ### Resumo - 0 género Bursaphelenchus compreende quase 100 espécies, distribuídas sobretudo nos países do hemisfério norte do globo terrestre. Embora algumas espécies já tenham sido detectadas em plantas herbáceas, os hospedeiros vegetais mais comuns deste género são as coníferas, particularmente pinheiros. 0 nemátode da madeira do pinheiro (NMP), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, é considerado a espécie mais importante deste género uma vez que é o agente causal da doença da murchidão dos pinheiros ("pine wilt disease"). Originário dos Estados Unidos, onde não causa grande impacte, o NMP foi introduzido em alguns países da Ásia (China, Japão, Coreia e Taiwan) e mais recentemente na Europa (Portugal). Nestas regiões é responsável pela destruição de milhares de hectares de coníferas, assumindo uma elevada importância económica. Em Portugal, depois da sua detecção em 1999, associado a Pinus pinaster, foi implementado um programa nacional "Programa Nacional de Luta contra o Nemátodo da Madeira do Pinheiro" (PROLUNP) que permitiu determinar a área afectada pela praga (a sul do rio Tejo, península de Setúbal) bem como definir e implementar estratégias de controlo e prevenção da disseminação do NMP a outras zonas de Portugal. Recentemente, em Junho de 2008, foi confirmada a presença de B. xylophilus em outras regiões de Portugal levando as autoridades oficiais a definir todo o território continental como zona afectada e de restrição. As prospecções intensivas realizadas nos últimos anos incluíram a recolha e análise de milhares de amostras de madeira de pinheiro bem como de insectos associados ao pinheiro bravo conduzindo à identificação de várias espécies de Bursaphelenchus. Assim, os estudos conduzidos neste trabalho tiveram como objectivos efectuar uma caracterização morfológica, biométrica e molecular das espécies associadas a P. pinaster em Portugal bem como a sua distribuição geográfica e abundância. Os estudos biométricos foram realizados com populações extraídas directamente do meio natural. Foi ainda realizada uma pesquisa que permitiu identificar os insectos a que estão associadas essas espécies, os seus possíveis vectores. Foram analisadas no total 4813 amostras de P. pinaster e 3294 insectos (22 espécies pertencentes a seis famílias diferentes). Foram identificadas um total de nove espécies: B. antoniae n. sp., B. hellenicus, B. leoni, B. mucronatus, B. pinasteri, B. sexdentati, B. teratospicularis, B. tusciae e B. xylophilus. Foram realizados estudos morfológicos e biométricos de todas as espécies com excepção de B. mucronatus; o reduzido número de exemplares encontrados em apenas uma amostra foram utilizados para efectuar o diagnóstico molecular desta espécie (ITS-RFLP). Apesar de ter havido, sempre que possível, a confirmação molecular, na maioria dos casos a caracterização morfológica e biométrica permitiu a correcta identificação das espécies. Contudo, foi imprescindível a análise molecular em algumas amostras, nomeadamente para a identificação de B. xylophilus e B. sexdentati; dada a grande semelhança entre B. xylophilus e B. mucronatus e tendo sido encontradas algumas populações de B. xylophilus que possuíam fêmeas com cauda mucronada, foi necessária a realização da confirmação molecular. Com excepção de B. xylophilus, todas as outras espécies foram reportadas pela primeira vez em Portugal. Juntamente com B. xylophilus, B. pinasteri foi a espécie encontrada nas amostras de madeira de pinheiro com maior frequência. Algumas destas espécies como B. leoni, B. teratospicularis e B. tusciae foram reportadas em diferentes localidades do norte, centro e sul de Portugal, apresentando uma vasta distribuição geográfica; este resultado está em consonância com a forte associação destas espécies a climas mediterrânicos tal como acontece em Espanha, França, Itália e Grécia. Em oposição, espécies como B. antoniae e B. mucronatus foram encontradas apenas numa ocasião na região centro (Leiria) e norte (Figueira da Foz) do país, respectivamente. Bursaphelenchus mucronatus é igualmente pouco frequente em Espanha onde ocorre sobretudo na região norte, na Galiza. Esta espécie preferirá climas mais frios, ocorrendo com uma maior frequência nas regiões de latitude norte; esta análise é corroborada pela presença constante em países como Alemanha, Finlândia, França, Noruega, Rússia e Suécia. A nível mundial são descritas neste trabalho pela primeira vez as associações das espécies B. hellenicus e B. tusciae ao hospedeiro vegetal P. pinaster.

The Influence of Causal Explanations and Diagnostic Labeling on Psychology Students’ Beliefs About Treatments, Prognosis, Dangerousness and Unpredictability in Schizophrenia

This study explored views of 566 Italian psychology students about schizophrenia. The most frequently cited causes were psychological traumas (68%) and heredity (54%). Thirty-three percent of students firmly believed that people with the condition could recover. Reporting heredity among the causes, and identifying schizophrenia were both associated with prognostic pessimism, greater confidence in pharmacological treatments and lower confidence in psychological treatments. Schizophrenia labeling was also associated with higher perception of unpredictability and dangerousness. Compared to first year students, fourth/fifth year students more frequently reported heredity among the causes, and were more pessimistic about schizophrenia recovery. Stigma topics should be included in future psychologists’ education.

Interrelationship between two variants of the Circulifer tenellus complex and Spiroplasma citri: the causal agent of stubborn disease

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências Naturais, Unidade de Ciências e Tecnologias Agrárias, Universidade do Algarve, 1992

The causal relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe

Aims: The study examines the relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe utilizing yearly time series data for the period 1967 to 2004. Study Design: Time Series Study. Place and Duration of Study: Zimbabwe, May 2011 to July 2011. Methodology: Emphasis is placed on the direction of causality and the long run and short run effect of the two types of investment on each other. The paper constructs empirical models for both private and public investment, based on the flexible accelerator theory. Private investment is found to be cointegrated with public investment. A cointergration and VEC models are employed to assess the long and short run relationship existing between public and private investment. Conclusion: The relationship between private and public investment is found to be insignificant and the direction of causality found to be unidirectional. The results support the notion that private investment precedes public investment.

Investigating the causal role of rightOFA in holistic detection of Mooney faces and objects: an fMRI-guided TMS study

Background The right occipital face area (rOFA) is known to be involved in face discrimination based on local featural information. Whether this region is involved in global, holistic stimulus processing is not known. Objective We used fMRI-guided transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to investigate whether rOFA is causally implicated in stimulus detection based on holistic processing, by the use of Mooney stimuli. Methods Two studies were carried out: In Experiment 1, participants performed a detection task involving Mooney faces and Mooney objects; Mooney stimuli lack distinguishable local features and can be detected solely via holistic processing (i.e. at a global level) with top-down guidance from previously stored representations. Experiment 2 required participants to detect shapes which are recognized via bottom-up integration of local (collinear) Gabor elements and was performed to control for specificity of rightOFA's implication in holistic detection. Results In Experiment 1, TMS over rOFA and rLO impaired detection of all stimulus categories, with no category-specific effect. In Experiment 2, shape detection was impaired when TMS was applied over rLO but not over rOFA. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that rOFA is causally implicated in the type of top-down holistic detection required by Mooney stimuli and that such role is not face-selective. In contrast, rOFA does not appear to play a causal role in in detection of shapes based on bottom-up integration of local components, demonstrating that its involvement in processing non-face stimuli is specific for holistic processing.

The role of geographical proximity in the establishment and development of science parks – evidence from Nanjing, China

The emergence of science parks is a relatively new phenomenon in China. Apart from the widely debated topics of university–industry linkages, collaboration among firms and spontaneous/policy-driven science parks, the development of science parks in China also has several distinguishing characteristics, such as their ambiguous linkage with urban expansion and their hierarchical structuring pattern. This paper attempts to discuss the motivation and efficiency of spatial proximity in science park development and to explore the role of universities in science parks, the function of science parks as a government project and a case study of location choice by on-site firms. The qualitative analysis, based on in-depth interviews with tenant firm managers and district-level government officers in Jiangning, Nanjing, is used as a basis for discussion.

The fourth extracellular loop of the alpha subunit of Na,K-ATPase. Functional evidence for close proximity with the second extracellular loop.

Na,K-ATPase is the main active transport system that maintains the large gradients of Na(+) and K(+) across the plasma membrane of animal cells. The crystal structure of a K(+)-occluding conformation of this protein has been recently published, but the movements of its different domains allowing for the cation pumping mechanism are not yet known. The structure of many more conformations is known for the related calcium ATPase SERCA, but the reliability of homology modeling is poor for several domains with low sequence identity, in particular the extracellular loops. To better define the structure of the large fourth extracellular loop between the seventh and eighth transmembrane segments of the alpha subunit, we have studied the formation of a disulfide bond between pairs of cysteine residues introduced by site-directed mutagenesis in the second and the fourth extracellular loop. We found a specific pair of cysteine positions (Y308C and D884C) for which extracellular treatment with an oxidizing agent inhibited the Na,K pump function, which could be rapidly restored by a reducing agent. The formation of the disulfide bond occurred preferentially under the E2-P conformation of Na,K-ATPase, in the absence of extracellular cations. Using recently published crystal structure and a distance constraint reproducing the existence of disulfide bond, we performed an extensive conformational space search using simulated annealing and showed that the Tyr(308) and Asp(884) residues can be in close proximity, and simultaneously, the SYGQ motif of the fourth extracellular loop, known to interact with the extracellular domain of the beta subunit, can be exposed to the exterior of the protein and can easily interact with the beta subunit.