Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change

Relatively few studies have addressed water management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change. The current work studies climate change impact on a multipurpose reservoir performance and derives adaptive policies for possible futurescenarios. The method developed in this work is illustrated with a case study of Hirakud reservoir on the Mahanadi river in Orissa, India,which is a multipurpose reservoir serving flood control, irrigation and power generation. Climate change effects on annual hydropower generation and four performance indices (reliability with respect to three reservoir functions, viz. hydropower, irrigation and flood control, resiliency, vulnerability and deficit ratio with respect to hydropower) are studied. Outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) for three scenarios each are downscaled to monsoon streamflow in the Mahanadi river for two future time slices, 2045-65 and 2075-95. Increased irrigation demands, rule curves dictated by increased need for flood storage and downscaled projections of streamflow from the ensemble of GCMs and scenarios are used for projecting future hydrologic scenarios. It is seen that hydropower generation and reliability with respect to hydropower and irrigation are likely to show a decrease in future in most scenarios, whereas the deficit ratio and vulnerability are likely to increase as a result of climate change if the standard operating policy (SOP) using current rule curves for flood protection is employed. An optimal monthly operating policy is then derived using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) as an adaptive policy for mitigating impacts of climate change on reservoir operation. The objective of this policy is to maximize reliabilities with respect to multiple reservoir functions of hydropower, irrigation and flood control. In variations to this adaptive policy, increasingly more weightage is given to the purpose of maximizing reliability with respect to hydropower for two extreme scenarios. It is seen that by marginally sacrificing reliability with respect to irrigation and flood control, hydropower reliability and generation can be increased for future scenarios. This suggests that reservoir rules for flood control may have to be revised in basins where climate change projects an increasing probability of droughts. However, it is also seen that power generation is unable to be restored to current levels, due in part to the large projected increases in irrigation demand. This suggests that future water balance deficits may limit the success of adaptive policy options. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agricultural expansion and climate change in the Taita Hills, Kenya: an assessment of potential environmental impacts

The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved in this region. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This dissertation tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, alternative methods were designed to improve our understanding of the ongoing agricultural activities. Namely, methods for agricultural survey planning and to estimate evapotranspiration were evaluated, taking into account a number of limitations regarding data and resources availability. Next, this dissertation evaluates how upcoming agricultural expansion, together with climate change, will affect the natural resources in the Taita Hills up to the year 2030. The driving forces of agricultural expansion in the region were identified as aiming to delineate future landscape scenarios and evaluate potential impacts from the soil and water conservation point of view. In order to investigate these issues and answer the research questions, this dissertation combined state of the art modelling tools with renowned statistical methods. The results indicate that, if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Although the simulated land use changes will certainly increase soil erosion figures, new croplands are likely to come up predominantly in the lowlands, which comprise areas with lower soil erosion potential. By 2030, rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change. Finally, this thesis addressed the potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR), which is considered another major issue in the context of the relations between land use and climate. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase annual volumes of rainfall during the following decades, IWR will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

A method of tracking the peak power points for a variable speed wind energy conversion system

In this paper, a method of tracking the peak power in a wind energy conversion system (WECS) is proposed, which is independent of the turbine parameters and air density. The algorithm searches for the peak power by varying the speed in the desired direction. The generator is operated in the speed control mode with the speed reference being dynamically modified in accordance with the magnitude and direction of change of active power. The peak power points in the P-omega curve correspond to dP/domega = 0. This fact is made use of in the optimum point search algorithm. The generator considered is a wound rotor induction machine whose stator is connected directly to the grid and the rotor is fed through back-to-back pulse-width-modulation (PWM) converters. Stator flux-oriented vector control is applied to control the active and reactive current loops independently. The turbine characteristics are generated by a dc motor fed from a commercial dc drive. All of the control loops are executed by a single-chip digital signal processor (DSP) controller TMS320F240. Experimental results show that the performance of the control algorithm compares well with the conventional torque control method.

Stream-Close: Fast mining of Closed Frequent Itemsets in high speed data streams

With the emergence of large-volume and high-speed streaming data, the recent techniques for stream mining of CFIpsilas (closed frequent itemsets) will become inefficient. When concept drift occurs at a slow rate in high speed data streams, the rate of change of information across different sliding windows will be negligible. So, the user wonpsilat be devoid of change in information if we slide window by multiple transactions at a time. Therefore, we propose a novel approach for mining CFIpsilas cumulatively by making sliding width(ges1) over high speed data streams. However, it is nontrivial to mine CFIpsilas cumulatively over stream, because such growth may lead to the generation of exponential number of candidates for closure checking. In this study, we develop an efficient algorithm, stream-close, for mining CFIpsilas over stream by exploring some interesting properties. Our performance study reveals that stream-close achieves good scalability and has promising results.

Optimizing Delay in Sequential Change Detection on Ad Hoc Wireless Sensor Networks

We consider the classical problem of sequential detection of change in a distribution (from hypothesis 0 to hypothesis 1), where the fusion centre receives vectors of periodic measurements, with the measurements being i.i.d. over time and across the vector components, under each of the two hypotheses. In our problem, the sensor devices ("motes") that generate the measurements constitute an ad hoc wireless network. The motes contend using a random access protocol (such as CSMA/CA) to transmit their measurement packets to the fusion centre. The fusion centre waits for vectors of measurements to accumulate before taking decisions. We formulate the optimal detection problem, taking into account the network delay experienced by the vectors of measurements, and find that, under periodic sampling, the detection delay decouples into network delay and decision delay. We obtain a lower bound on the network delay, and propose a censoring scheme, where lagging sensors drop their delayed observations in order to mitigate network delay. We show that this scheme can achieve the lower bound. This approach is explored via simulation. We also use numerical evaluation and simulation to study issues such as: the optimal sampling rate for a given number of sensors, and the optimal number of sensors for a given measurement rate

Decentralised carbon footprint analysis for opting climate change mitigation strategies in India

Carbon footprint (CF) refers to the total amount of carbon dioxide and its equivalents emitted due to various anthropogenic activities. Carbon emission and sequestration inventories have been reviewed sector-wise for all federal states in India to identify the sectors and regions responsible for carbon imbalances. This would help in implementing appropriate climate change mitigation and management strategies at disaggregated levels. Major sectors of carbon emissions in India are through electricity generation, transport, domestic energy consumption, industries and agriculture. A majority of carbon storage occurs in forest biomass and soil. This paper focuses on the statewise carbon emissions (CO2. CO and CH4), using region specific emission factors and statewise carbon sequestration capacity. The estimate shows that CO2, CO and CH4 emissions from India are 965.9, 22.5 and 16.9 Tg per year, respectively. Electricity generation contributes 35.5% of total CO2 emission, which is followed by the contribution from transport. Vehicular transport exclusively contributes 25.5% of total emission. The analysis shows that Maharashtra emits higher CO2, followed by Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. The carbon status, which is the ratio of annual carbon storage against carbon emission, for each federal state is computed. This shows that small states and union territories (UT) like Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, where carbon sequestration is higher due to good vegetation cover, have carbon status > 1. Annually, 7.35% of total carbon emissions get stored either in forest biomass or soil, out of which 34% is in Arunachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of tool rotation speed and feed rate on the forming limit of friction stir welded AA6061-T6 sheets

In this study, the influence of tool rotation speed and feed rate on the forming limit of friction stir welded Al 6061-T651 sheets has been investigated. The forming limit curve was evaluated by limit dome height test performed on all the friction stir welded sheets. The welding trials were conducted at a tool rotation speed of 1300 and 1400 r/min and feed rate of 90 and 100 mm/min. A third trial of welding was performed at a rotational speed of 1500 r/min and feed rate 120 mm/min. It is found that with increase in the tool rotation speed, from 1300 to 1400 r/min, for a constant feed rate, the forming limit of friction stir welded blank has improved and with increase in feed rate, from 90 to 100 mm/min, for a constant tool rotation speed, it has decreased. The forming limit of friction stir welded sheets is better than unwelded sheets. The thickness gradient after forming is severe in the cases of friction stir welded blanks made at higher feed rate and lower rotation speed. The strain hardening exponent of weld (n) increases with increase in tool rotation speed and it decreases with increase in feed rate. It has been demonstrated that the change in the forming limit of friction stir welded sheets with respect to welding parameters is due to the thickness distribution severity and strain hardening exponent of the weld region during forming. There is not much variation in the dome height among the friction stir welded sheets tested. When compared with unwelded sheets, dome height of friction stir welded sheets is higher in near-plane-strain condition, but it is lesser in stretching strain paths.

Modeling the vulnerability of an urban groundwater system due to the combined impacts of climate change and management scenarios

Climate change impact on a groundwater-dependent small urban town has been investigated in the semiarid hard rock aquifer in southern India. A distributed groundwater model was used to simulate the groundwater levels in the study region for the projected future rainfall (2012-32) obtained from a general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the impacts of climate change and management practices on groundwater system. Management practices were based on the human-induced changes on the urban infrastructure such as reduced recharge from the lakes, reduced recharge from water and wastewater utility due to an operational and functioning underground drainage system, and additional water extracted by the water utility for domestic purposes. An assessment of impacts on the groundwater levels was carried out by calibrating a groundwater model using comprehensive data gathered during the period 2008-11 and then simulating the future groundwater level changes using rainfall from six GCMs Institute of Numerical Mathematics Coupled Model, version 3.0 (INM-CM. 3.0); L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL-CM4); Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 3.2 (MIROC3.2); ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G); Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3); and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 1 (HadGEM1)] that were found to show good correlation to the historical rainfall in the study area. The model results for the present condition indicate that the annual average discharge (sum of pumping and natural groundwater outflow) was marginally or moderately higher at various locations than the recharge and further the recharge is aided from the recharge from the lakes. Model simulations showed that groundwater levels were vulnerable to the GCM rainfall and a scenario of moderate reduction in recharge from lakes. Hence, it is important to sustain the induced recharge from lakes by ensuring that sufficient runoff water flows to these lakes.

Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Waxing and waning of observed extreme annual tropical rainfall

We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the most recent decade (1998-present) compared with the preceding warming era (1979-1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (compared with 1979-1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to a cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation further, a similar comparison is performed between 1960 and 1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land-only observations, in this cold-to-warm transition, remarkably, a near-exact reversal of extremes is noted both statistically and geographically. This is despite the average temperature being higher in 1979-1997 compared with 1960-1978. Taking this evidence together, we propose that there is a fundamental mode of natural variability, involving the waxing and waning of extremes in accumulation of global tropical rainfall with different phases of ENSO.

Annual report 2005 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Fourteenth meeting, Vladivostok, Russia, September 29-October 9, 2005

Report of Opening Session (pdf 0.07 Mb) Report of Governing Council (pdf 0.2 Mb) Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 0.07 Mb) Reports of Science Board and Committees Science Board inter-sessional meeting (pdf 0.07 Mb) Science Board (pdf 0.1 Mb) Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 0.2 Mb) Fishery Science Committee (pdf 0.04 Mb) Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 0.06 Mb) MONITOR Technical Committee (pdf 0.05 Mb) Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 0.06 Mb) Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of Sections, Working and Study Groups Section on Ecology of harmful algal blooms in the North Pacific (pdf 0.03 Mb) Section on Carbon and Climate Working Group 18 on Mariculture in the 21st century - The intersection between ecology, socio-economics and production (pdf 0.06 Mb) Working Group 19 on Ecosystem-based management science and its application to the North Pacific (pdf 0.03 Mb) Reports of the Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 0.04 Mb) CFAME Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) MODEL Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of Advisory Panels Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment in the Subarctic Pacific Ocean (pdf 0.04 Mb) Advisory Panel on Marine Birds and Mammals (pdf 0.03 Mb) Advisory Panel on Micronekton Sampling Inter-Calibration experiment (pdf 0.05 Mb) Summary of Scientific Sessions and Workshops (pdf 0.2 Mb) Membership List (pdf 0.07 Mb) List of Participants (pdf 0.07 Mb) List of Acronyms (pdf 0.03 Mb)

Annual report 2004 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Thirteenth meeting, Honolulu, Hawaii, U.S.A., October 14-24, 2004

Report of Opening Session (pdf 0.07 Mb) Report of Governing Council (pdf 0.2 Mb) Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 0.08 Mb) Reports of Science Board and Committees Science Board inter-sessional meeting (pdf 0.05 Mb) Science Board (pdf 0.1 Mb) Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 0.1 Mb) Fishery Science Committee (pdf 0.04 Mb) Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 0.04 Mb) Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 0.04 Mb) Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of Sections, Working and Study Groups Harmful Algal Blooms Section (pdf 0.03 Mb) Working Group 17 on Biogeochemical data integration and synthesis (pdf 0.03 Mb) Working Group 18 on Mariculture in the 21st century - The intersection between ecology, socio-economics and production (pdf 0.06 Mb) Study Group on Ecosystem-based management science and its application to the North Pacific (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of the Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 0.04 Mb) BASS Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) CFAME Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) MODEL Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) MONITOR Task Team (pdf 0.03 Mb) REX Task Team (pdf 0.04 Mb) Reports of Advisory Panels Advisory Panel on Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey in the North Pacific (pdf 0.4 Mb) Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment in the Subarctic Pacific Ocean (pdf 0.03 Mb) Advisory Panel on Marine Birds and Mammals (pdf 0.04 Mb) Advisory Panel on Micronekton Sampling Inter-Calibration experiment (pdf 0.04 Mb) Summary of Scientific Sessions and Workshops (pdf 0.2 Mb) Membership List (pdf 0.07 Mb) List of Participants (pdf 0.09 Mb) List of Acronyms (pdf 0.03 Mb)

Annual report 2003 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Twelfth meeting, Seoul, Republic of Korea, October 9-18, 2003

Report of Opening Session (pdf 58 KB) Report of Governing Council Meeting (pdf 244 KB) Report of 2003 interim Governing Council meeting Tenth Anniversary PICES Organization Review Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (pdf 102 KB) 2002 Auditor's report to the Organization Review of PICES Publication Program Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board/Governing Council interim meeting (pdf 81 KB) Science Board (pdf 95 KB) Study Group on PICES Capacity Building Biological Oceanography Committee (pdf 65 KB) Advisory Panel on Micronekton sampling gear intercalibration experiment Advisory Panel on Marine birds and mammals Fishery Science Committee (pdf 41 KB) Working Group 16 on Climate change, shifts to fish production, and fisheries management Marine Environmental Quality Committee (pdf 76 KB) Working Group 15 on Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the North Pacific Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (pdf 70 KB) Working Group 17 on Biogeochemical data integration and synthesis Advisory Panel on North Pacific Data Buoy Technical Committee on Data Exchange (pdf 32 KB) Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (pdf 64 KB) Nemuro Experimental Planning Team (NEXT) BASS Task Team (pdf 35 KB) Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment MODEL Task Team (pdf 29 KB) MONITOR Task Team (pdf 30KB) REX Task Team (pdf 25 KB) Documenting Scientific Sessions (pdf 164 KB) List of Participants (pdf 60 KB) List of Acronyms (pdf 21 KB)