Waxing and waning of observed extreme annual tropical rainfall
Data(s) |
2016
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Resumo |
We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the most recent decade (1998-present) compared with the preceding warming era (1979-1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (compared with 1979-1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to a cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation further, a similar comparison is performed between 1960 and 1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land-only observations, in this cold-to-warm transition, remarkably, a near-exact reversal of extremes is noted both statistically and geographically. This is despite the average temperature being higher in 1979-1997 compared with 1960-1978. Taking this evidence together, we propose that there is a fundamental mode of natural variability, involving the waxing and waning of extremes in accumulation of global tropical rainfall with different phases of ENSO. |
Formato |
application/pdf |
Identificador |
http://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/53417/1/Qua_Jou_Rol_Met_Soc_142-%20694_102_2016.pdf Sukhatme, Jai and Venugopal, V (2016) Waxing and waning of observed extreme annual tropical rainfall. In: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 142 (694, A). pp. 102-107. |
Publicador |
WILEY-BLACKWELL |
Relação |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2633 http://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/53417/ |
Palavras-Chave | #Divecha Centre for Climate Change #Aerospace Engineering (Formerly, Aeronautical Engineering) |
Tipo |
Journal Article PeerReviewed |