An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Jamaica

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Jamaica to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Jamaica. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The outcomes from investigating the agriculture sector indicate that for the sugar-cane subsector the harvests under both the A2 and B2 scenarios decrease at first and then increase as the mid-century mark is approached. With respect to the yam subsector the results indicate that the yield of yam will increase from 17.4 to 23.1 tonnes per hectare (33%) under the A2 scenario, and 18.4 to 23.9 (30%) tonnes per hectare under the B2 scenario over the period 2011 to 2050. Similar to the forecasts for yam, the results for escallion suggest that yields will continue to increase to mid-century. Adaptation in the sugar cane sub-sector could involve replanting and irrigation that appear to generate net benefits at the three selected discount rates for the A2 scenario, but only at a discount rate of 1% for the B2 scenario. For yam and escallion, investment in irrigation will earn significant net benefits for both the A2 and B2 scenarios at the three selected rates of discount. It is recommended that if adaptation strategies are part of a package of strategies for improving efficiency and hence enhancing competitiveness, then the yields of each crop can be raised sufficiently to warrant investment in adaptation to climate change. The analysis of the health sector demonstrates the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the future health systems in Jamaica, something that that will only compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. The results clearly show that the incidence of dengue fever will increase if climate change continues unabated, with more cases projected for the A2 scenario than the B2. The models predicted a decrease in the incidence of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis with climate change, indicating that Jamaica will benefit from climate change with a reduction in the number of cases of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis. Due to the long time horizon anticipated for climate change, Jamaica should start implementing adaptation strategies focused on the health sector by promoting an enabling environment, strengthening communities, strengthening the monitoring, surveillance and response systems and integrating adaptation into development plans and actions. Small-island developing states like Jamaica must be proactive in implementing adaptation strategies, which will reduce the risk of climate change. On the global stage the country must continue to agitate for the implementation of the mitigation strategies for developed countries as outlined in the Kyoto protocol. The results regarding the tourism sector suggest that the sector is likely to incur losses due to climate change, the most significant of which is under the A2 scenario. Climatic features, such as temperature and precipitation, will affect the demand for tourism in Jamaica. By 2050 the industry is expected to lose US$ 132.2 million and 106.1 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In addition to changes in the climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects from extreme events and acidification of the ocean. The expected loss from extreme events is projected to be approximately US$ 5.48 billion (A2) and US$ 4.71 billion (B2). Even more devastating is the effect of ocean acidification on the tourism sector. The analysis shows that US$ 7.95 billion (A2) and US$ 7.04 billion is expected to be lost by mid-century. The benefit-cost analysis indicates that most of the adaptation strategies are expected to produce negative net benefits, and it is highly likely that the cost burden would have to be carried by the state. The options that generated positive ratios were: redesigning and retrofitting all relevant tourism facilities, restoring corals and educating the public and developing rescue and evacuation plans. Given the relative importance of tourism to the macroeconomy one possible option is to seek assistance from multilateral funding agencies. It is recommended that the government first undertake a detailed analysis of the vulnerability of each sector and, in particular tourism, to climate change. Further, more realistic socio-economic scenarios should be developed so as to inform future benefit-cost analysis.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Jamaica

The agricultural sector‟s contribution to GDP and to exports in Jamaica has been declining with the post-war development process that has led to the differentiation of the economy. In 2010, the sector contributed 5.8% of GDP, and 3% to the exports (of goods), but with 36% of employment, it continues to be a major employer. With a little less than half of the population living in rural communities, agricultural activities, and their linkages with other economic activities, continue to play an important role as a source of livelihoods, and by extension, the economic development of the country. Sugar cane cultivation has, with the exception of a couple of decades in the twentieth century when it was superseded by bananas, dominated the agricultural export sector for centuries as the source of the raw materials for the manufacture of sugar for export. In 2005, sugar cane itself accounted for 6.4% of the sector‟s contribution to GDP, and 52% of the contribution of agricultural exports to GDP. Production for the domestic market has long been the larger subsector, organized around the production of root crops, especially yams, vegetables and condiments. To analyse the potential impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, this study selected three important crops for detailed examination. In particular, the study selected sugar cane because of its overwhelming importance to the export subsector of agriculture, and yam and escallion for both their contribution to the domestic subsector as well as the preeminent role yams and escallion play in the economic activities of the communities in the hills of central Jamaica, and the plains of the southwest respectively. As with other studies in this project, the methodology adopted was to compare the estimated values of output on the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with the value of output on a “baseline” Business As Usual (BAU), and then estimate the net benefits of investment in the relevant to climate change for the selected crops. The A2 and B2 Scenarios were constructed by applying forecasts of changes in temperature and precipitation generated by INSMET from ECHAM inspired climate models. The BAU “baseline” was a linear projection of the historical trends of yields for each crop. Linear models of yields were estimated for each crop with particular attention to the influence of the two climate variables – temperature and precipitation. These models were then used to forecast yields up to 2050 (table1). These yields were then used to estimate the value of output of the selected crop, as well as the contribution to overall GDP, on each Scenario. The analysis suggested replanting sugar cane with heat resistant varieties, rehabilitating irrigation systems where they existed, and establishing technologically appropriate irrigation systems where they were not for the three selected crops.

Características de féculas de tuberosas e suas relações com resistência dos géis sob condições de estresse aplicada na industrialização de alimentos

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Efeito do tratamento local de vesiculite seminal sobre a qualidade e longevidade so sêmen equino

Pós-graduação em Medicina Veterinária - FMVZ

Methods and results of a search for gravitational waves associated with gamma-ray bursts using the GEO 600, LIGO, and Virgo detectors

In this paper we report on a search for short-duration gravitational wave bursts in the frequency range 64 Hz-1792 Hz associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), using data from GEO 600 and one of the LIGO or Virgo detectors. We introduce the method of a linear search grid to analyze GRB events with large sky localization uncertainties, for example the localizations provided by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM). Coherent searches for gravitational waves (GWs) can be computationally intensive when the GRB sky position is not well localized, due to the corrections required for the difference in arrival time between detectors. Using a linear search grid we are able to reduce the computational cost of the analysis by a factor of O(10) for GBM events. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our analysis pipeline can improve upon the sky localization of GRBs detected by the GBM, if a high-frequency GW signal is observed in coincidence. We use the method of the linear grid in a search for GWs associated with 129 GRBs observed satellite-based gamma-ray experiments between 2006 and 2011. The GRBs in our sample had not been previously analyzed for GW counterparts. A fraction of our GRB events are analyzed using data from GEO 600 while the detector was using squeezed-light states to improve its sensitivity; this is the first search for GWs using data from a squeezed-light interferometric observatory. We find no evidence for GW signals, either with any individual GRB in this sample or with the population as a whole. For each GRB we place lower bounds on the distance to the progenitor, under an assumption of a fixed GW emission energy of 10(-2)M circle dot c(2), with a median exclusion distance of 0.8 Mpc for emission at 500 Hz and 0.3 Mpc at 1 kHz. The reduced computational cost associated with a linear search grid will enable rapid searches for GWs associated with Fermi GBM events once the advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors begin operation.

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with gamma-ray Bursts Detected by the Interplanetary Network

We present the results of a search for gravitational waves associated with 223 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) in 2005-2010 during LIGO's fifth and sixth science runs and Virgo's first, second, and third science runs. The IPN satellites provide accurate times of the bursts and sky localizations that vary significantly from degree scale to hundreds of square degrees. We search for both a well-modeled binary coalescence signal, the favored progenitor model for short GRBs, and for generic, unmodeled gravitational wave bursts. Both searches use the event time and sky localization to improve the gravitational wave search sensitivity as compared to corresponding all-time, all-sky searches. We find no evidence of a gravitational wave signal associated with any of the IPN GRBs in the sample, nor do we find evidence for a population of weak gravitational wave signals associated with the GRBs. For all IPN-detected GRBs, for which a sufficient duration of quality gravitational wave data are available, we place lower bounds on the distance to the source in accordance with an optimistic assumption of gravitational wave emission energy of 10(-2)M(circle dot)c(2) at 150 Hz, and find a median of 13 Mpc. For the 27 short-hard GRBs we place 90% confidence exclusion distances to two source models: a binary neutron star coalescence, with a median distance of 12 Mpc, or the coalescence of a neutron star and black hole, with a median distance of 22 Mpc. Finally, we combine this search with previously published results to provide a population statement for GRB searches in first-generation LIGO and Virgo gravitational wave detectors and a resulting examination of prospects for the advanced gravitational wave detectors.

Multimessenger search for sources of gravitational waves and high-energy neutrinos: Initial results for LIGO-Virgo and IceCube

We report the results of a multimessenger search for coincident signals from the LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave observatories and the partially completed IceCube high-energy neutrino detector, including periods of joint operation between 2007-2010. These include parts of the 2005-2007 run and the 2009-2010 run for LIGO-Virgo, and IceCube's observation periods with 22, 59 and 79 strings. We find no significant coincident events, and use the search results to derive upper limits on the rate of joint sources for a range of source emission parameters. For the optimistic assumption of gravitational-wave emission energy of 10(-2) M(circle dot)c(2) at similar to 150 Hz with similar to 60 ms duration, and high-energy neutrino emission of 1051 erg comparable to the isotropic gamma-ray energy of gamma-ray bursts, we limit the source rate below 1.6 x 10(-2) Mpc(-3) yr(-1). We also examine how combining information from gravitational waves and neutrinos will aid discovery in the advanced gravitational-wave detector era.

Narrow-band search of continuous gravitational-wave signals from Crab and Vela pulsars in Virgo VSR4 data

In this paper we present the results of a coherent narrow-band search for continuous gravitational-wave signals from the Crab and Vela pulsars conducted on Virgo VSR4 data. In order to take into account a possible small mismatch between the gravitational-wave frequency and two times the star rotation frequency, inferred from measurement of the electromagnetic pulse rate, a range of 0.02 Hz around two times the star rotational frequency has been searched for both the pulsars. No evidence for a signal has been found and 95% confidence level upper limits have been computed assuming both that polarization parameters are completely unknown and that they are known with some uncertainty, as derived from x-ray observations of the pulsar wind torii. For Vela the upper limits are comparable to the spin-down limit, computed assuming that all the observed spin-down is due to the emission of gravitational waves. For Crab the upper limits are about a factor of 2 below the spin-down limit, and represent a significant improvement with respect to past analysis. This is the first time the spin-down limit is significantly overcome in a narrow-band search.

Directed search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 with initial LIGO data

We present results of a search for continuously emitted gravitational radiation, directed at the brightest low-mass x-ray binary, Scorpius X-1. Our semicoherent analysis covers 10 days of LIGO S5 data ranging from 50-550 Hz, and performs an incoherent sum of coherent F-statistic power distributed amongst frequency-modulated orbital sidebands. All candidates not removed at the veto stage were found to be consistent with noise at a 1% false alarm rate. We present Bayesian 95% confidence upper limits on gravitational-wave strain amplitude using two different prior distributions: a standard one, with no a priori assumptions about the orientation of Scorpius X-1; and an angle-restricted one, using a prior derived from electromagnetic observations. Median strain upper limits of 1.3 x 10(-24) and 8 x 10(-25) are reported at 150 Hz for the standard and angle-restricted searches respectively. This proof-of-principle analysis was limited to a short observation time by unknown effects of accretion on the intrinsic spin frequency of the neutron star, but improves upon previous upper limits by factors of similar to 1.4 for the standard, and 2.3 for the angle-restricted search at the sensitive region of the detector.

Advanced LIGO

The Advanced LIGO gravitational wave detectors are second-generation instruments designed and built for the two LIGO observatories in Hanford, WA and Livingston, LA, USA. The two instruments are identical in design, and are specialized versions of a Michelson interferometer with 4 km long arms. As in Initial LIGO, Fabry-Perot cavities are used in the arms to increase the interaction time with a gravitational wave, and power recycling is used to increase the effective laser power. Signal recycling has been added in Advanced LIGO to improve the frequency response. In the most sensitive frequency region around 100 Hz, the design strain sensitivity is a factor of 10 better than Initial LIGO. In addition, the low frequency end of the sensitivity band is moved from 40 Hz down to 10 Hz. All interferometer components have been replaced with improved technologies to achieve this sensitivity gain. Much better seismic isolation and test mass suspensions are responsible for the gains at lower frequencies. Higher laser power, larger test masses and improved mirror coatings lead to the improved sensitivity at mid and high frequencies. Data collecting runs with these new instruments are planned to begin in mid-2015.

Effects of seminal plasma removal on bacterial growth in stallion semen

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mitochondrial Network Size Scaling in Budding Yeast

Mitochondria must grow with the growing cell to ensure proper cellular physiology and inheritance upon division. We measured the physical size of mitochondrial networks in budding yeast and found that mitochondrial network size increased with increasing cell size and that this scaling relation occurred primarily in the bud. The mitochondria-to-cell size ratio continually decreased in aging mothers over successive generations. However, regardless of the mother's age or mitochondrial content, all buds attained the same average ratio. Thus, yeast populations achieve a stable scaling relation between mitochondrial content and cell size despite asymmetry in inheritance.

Le secteur rural dans l'économie rentière du Bénin /// Arbeitspapiere / Institut für Ethnologie und Afrikastudien ; 31

agriculture, État rentier, igname