Multimodal Transportation in Northeast Seattle: An Integrated Design

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Freeway travel time estimation and prediction using dynamic neural networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. ^ This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.^

Mitigating inconsistencies by coupling data cleaning, filtering, and contextual data validation in wireless sensor networks

With the advent of peer to peer networks, and more importantly sensor networks, the desire to extract useful information from continuous and unbounded streams of data has become more prominent. For example, in tele-health applications, sensor based data streaming systems are used to continuously and accurately monitor Alzheimer's patients and their surrounding environment. Typically, the requirements of such applications necessitate the cleaning and filtering of continuous, corrupted and incomplete data streams gathered wirelessly in dynamically varying conditions. Yet, existing data stream cleaning and filtering schemes are incapable of capturing the dynamics of the environment while simultaneously suppressing the losses and corruption introduced by uncertain environmental, hardware, and network conditions. Consequently, existing data cleaning and filtering paradigms are being challenged. This dissertation develops novel schemes for cleaning data streams received from a wireless sensor network operating under non-linear and dynamically varying conditions. The study establishes a paradigm for validating spatio-temporal associations among data sources to enhance data cleaning. To simplify the complexity of the validation process, the developed solution maps the requirements of the application on a geometrical space and identifies the potential sensor nodes of interest. Additionally, this dissertation models a wireless sensor network data reduction system by ascertaining that segregating data adaptation and prediction processes will augment the data reduction rates. The schemes presented in this study are evaluated using simulation and information theory concepts. The results demonstrate that dynamic conditions of the environment are better managed when validation is used for data cleaning. They also show that when a fast convergent adaptation process is deployed, data reduction rates are significantly improved. Targeted applications of the developed methodology include machine health monitoring, tele-health, environment and habitat monitoring, intermodal transportation and homeland security.

Resource management and optimization in wireless mesh networks

A wireless mesh network is a mesh network implemented over a wireless network system such as wireless LANs. Wireless Mesh Networks(WMNs) are promising for numerous applications such as broadband home networking, enterprise networking, transportation systems, health and medical systems, security surveillance systems, etc. Therefore, it has received considerable attention from both industrial and academic researchers. This dissertation explores schemes for resource management and optimization in WMNs by means of network routing and network coding.^ In this dissertation, we propose three optimization schemes. (1) First, a triple-tier optimization scheme is proposed for load balancing objective. The first tier mechanism achieves long-term routing optimization, and the second tier mechanism, using the optimization results obtained from the first tier mechanism, performs the short-term adaptation to deal with the impact of dynamic channel conditions. A greedy sub-channel allocation algorithm is developed as the third tier optimization scheme to further reduce the congestion level in the network. We conduct thorough theoretical analysis to show the correctness of our design and give the properties of our scheme. (2) Then, a Relay-Aided Network Coding scheme called RANC is proposed to improve the performance gain of network coding by exploiting the physical layer multi-rate capability in WMNs. We conduct rigorous analysis to find the design principles and study the tradeoff in the performance gain of RANC. Based on the analytical results, we provide a practical solution by decomposing the original design problem into two sub-problems, flow partition problem and scheduling problem. (3) Lastly, a joint optimization scheme of the routing in the network layer and network coding-aware scheduling in the MAC layer is introduced. We formulate the network optimization problem and exploit the structure of the problem via dual decomposition. We find that the original problem is composed of two problems, routing problem in the network layer and scheduling problem in the MAC layer. These two sub-problems are coupled through the link capacities. We solve the routing problem by two different adaptive routing algorithms. We then provide a distributed coding-aware scheduling algorithm. According to corresponding experiment results, the proposed schemes can significantly improve network performance.^

Incorporating variable peak -to -daily ratios in the equilibrium traffic assignment procedure of the Florida Standard Urban Transportation Modeling Structure (FSUTMS)

The standard highway assignment model in the Florida Standard Urban Transportation Modeling Structure (FSUTMS) is based on the equilibrium traffic assignment method. This method involves running several iterations of all-or-nothing capacity-restraint assignment with an adjustment of travel time to reflect delays encountered in the associated iteration. The iterative link time adjustment process is accomplished through the Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) volume-delay equation. Since FSUTMS' traffic assignment procedure outputs daily volumes, and the input capacities are given in hourly volumes, it is necessary to convert the hourly capacities to their daily equivalents when computing the volume-to-capacity ratios used in the BPR function. The conversion is accomplished by dividing the hourly capacity by a factor called the peak-to-daily ratio, or referred to as CONFAC in FSUTMS. The ratio is computed as the highest hourly volume of a day divided by the corresponding total daily volume. ^ While several studies have indicated that CONFAC is a decreasing function of the level of congestion, a constant value is used for each facility type in the current version of FSUTMS. This ignores the different congestion level associated with each roadway and is believed to be one of the culprits of traffic assignment errors. Traffic counts data from across the state of Florida were used to calibrate CONFACs as a function of a congestion measure using the weighted least squares method. The calibrated functions were then implemented in FSUTMS through a procedure that takes advantage of the iterative nature of FSUTMS' equilibrium assignment method. ^ The assignment results based on constant and variable CONFACs were then compared against the ground counts for three selected networks. It was found that the accuracy from the two assignments was not significantly different, that the hypothesized improvement in assignment results from the variable CONFAC model was not empirically evident. It was recognized that many other factors beyond the scope and control of this study could contribute to this finding. It was recommended that further studies focus on the use of the variable CONFAC model with recalibrated parameters for the BPR function and/or with other forms of volume-delay functions. ^

Freeway Travel Time Estimation and Prediction Using Dynamic Neural Networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.

Mitigating Inconsistencies by Coupling Data Cleaning, Filtering, and Contextual Data Validation in Wireless Sensor Networks

With the advent of peer to peer networks, and more importantly sensor networks, the desire to extract useful information from continuous and unbounded streams of data has become more prominent. For example, in tele-health applications, sensor based data streaming systems are used to continuously and accurately monitor Alzheimer's patients and their surrounding environment. Typically, the requirements of such applications necessitate the cleaning and filtering of continuous, corrupted and incomplete data streams gathered wirelessly in dynamically varying conditions. Yet, existing data stream cleaning and filtering schemes are incapable of capturing the dynamics of the environment while simultaneously suppressing the losses and corruption introduced by uncertain environmental, hardware, and network conditions. Consequently, existing data cleaning and filtering paradigms are being challenged. This dissertation develops novel schemes for cleaning data streams received from a wireless sensor network operating under non-linear and dynamically varying conditions. The study establishes a paradigm for validating spatio-temporal associations among data sources to enhance data cleaning. To simplify the complexity of the validation process, the developed solution maps the requirements of the application on a geometrical space and identifies the potential sensor nodes of interest. Additionally, this dissertation models a wireless sensor network data reduction system by ascertaining that segregating data adaptation and prediction processes will augment the data reduction rates. The schemes presented in this study are evaluated using simulation and information theory concepts. The results demonstrate that dynamic conditions of the environment are better managed when validation is used for data cleaning. They also show that when a fast convergent adaptation process is deployed, data reduction rates are significantly improved. Targeted applications of the developed methodology include machine health monitoring, tele-health, environment and habitat monitoring, intermodal transportation and homeland security.

On the convergence of the method of successive averages for calculating user equilibrium in traffic networks

Peer reviewed

On the multi-dimensionality and sampling of air transport networks

Complex network theory is a framework increasingly used in the study of air transport networks, thanks to its ability to describe the structures created by networks of flights, and their influence in dynamical processes such as delay propagation. While many works consider only a fraction of the network, created by major airports or airlines, for example, it is not clear if and how such sampling process bias the observed structures and processes. In this contribution, we tackle this problem by studying how some observed topological metrics depend on the way the network is reconstructed, i.e. on the rules used to sample nodes and connections. Both structural and simple dynamical properties are considered, for eight major air networks and different source datasets. Results indicate that using a subset of airports strongly distorts our perception of the network, even when just small ones are discarded; at the same time, considering a subset of airlines yields a better and more stable representation. This allows us to provide some general guidelines on the way airports and connections should be sampled.

Comparative field evaluation of the signal control strategy TUC in three traffic networks.

This paper describes how the recently developed network-wide real-time signal control strategy TUC has been implemented in three traffic networks with quite different traffic and control infrastructure characteristics: Chania, Greece (23 junctions); Southampton, U.K. (53 junctions); and Munich, Germany (25 junctions), where it has been compared to the respective resident real-time signal control strategies TASS, SCOOT and BALANCE. After a short outline of TUC, the paper describes the three application networks; the application, demonstration and evaluation conditions; as well as the comparative evaluation results. The main conclusions drawn from this high-effort inter-European undertaking is that TUC is an easy-to-implement, inter-operable, low-cost real-time signal control strategy whose performance, after limited fine-tuning, proved to be better or, at least, similar to the ones achieved by long-standing strategies that were in most cases very well fine-tuned over the years in the specific networks.

Defining the Resolution of a Network for Transportation Analyses: a New Method to Improve Transportation Planning Decisions

Travel demand models are important tools used in the analysis of transportation plans, projects, and policies. The modeling results are useful for transportation planners making transportation decisions and for policy makers developing transportation policies. Defining the level of detail (i.e., the number of roads) of the transport network in consistency with the travel demand model’s zone system is crucial to the accuracy of modeling results. However, travel demand modelers have not had tools to determine how much detail is needed in a transport network for a travel demand model. This dissertation seeks to fill this knowledge gap by (1) providing methodology to define an appropriate level of detail for a transport network in a given travel demand model; (2) implementing this methodology in a travel demand model in the Baltimore area; and (3) identifying how this methodology improves the modeling accuracy. All analyses identify the spatial resolution of the transport network has great impacts on the modeling results. For example, when compared to the observed traffic data, a very detailed network underestimates traffic congestion in the Baltimore area, while a network developed by this dissertation provides a more accurate modeling result of the traffic conditions. Through the evaluation of the impacts a new transportation project has on both networks, the differences in their analysis results point out the importance of having an appropriate level of network detail for making improved planning decisions. The results corroborate a suggested guideline concerning the development of a transport network in consistency with the travel demand model’s zone system. To conclude this dissertation, limitations are identified in data sources and methodology, based on which a plan of future studies is laid out.

Scheduling of track inspection and maintenance activities in railroad networks

The U.S. railroad companies spend billions of dollars every year on railroad track maintenance in order to ensure safety and operational efficiency of their railroad networks. Besides maintenance costs, other costs such as train accident costs, train and shipment delay costs and rolling stock maintenance costs are also closely related to track maintenance activities. Optimizing the track maintenance process on the extensive railroad networks is a very complex problem with major cost implications. Currently, the decision making process for track maintenance planning is largely manual and primarily relies on the knowledge and judgment of experts. There is considerable potential to improve the process by using operations research techniques to develop solutions to the optimization problems on track maintenance. In this dissertation study, we propose a range of mathematical models and solution algorithms for three network-level scheduling problems on track maintenance: track inspection scheduling problem (TISP), production team scheduling problem (PTSP) and job-to-project clustering problem (JTPCP). TISP involves a set of inspection teams which travel over the railroad network to identify track defects. It is a large-scale routing and scheduling problem where thousands of tasks are to be scheduled subject to many difficult side constraints such as periodicity constraints and discrete working time constraints. A vehicle routing problem formulation was proposed for TISP, and a customized heuristic algorithm was developed to solve the model. The algorithm iteratively applies a constructive heuristic and a local search algorithm in an incremental scheduling horizon framework. The proposed model and algorithm have been adopted by a Class I railroad in its decision making process. Real-world case studies show the proposed approach outperforms the manual approach in short-term scheduling and can be used to conduct long-term what-if analyses to yield managerial insights. PTSP schedules capital track maintenance projects, which are the largest track maintenance activities and account for the majority of railroad capital spending. A time-space network model was proposed to formulate PTSP. More than ten types of side constraints were considered in the model, including very complex constraints such as mutual exclusion constraints and consecution constraints. A multiple neighborhood search algorithm, including a decomposition and restriction search and a block-interchange search, was developed to solve the model. Various performance enhancement techniques, such as data reduction, augmented cost function and subproblem prioritization, were developed to improve the algorithm. The proposed approach has been adopted by a Class I railroad for two years. Our numerical results show the model solutions are able to satisfy all hard constraints and most soft constraints. Compared with the existing manual procedure, the proposed approach is able to bring significant cost savings and operational efficiency improvement. JTPCP is an intermediate problem between TISP and PTSP. It focuses on clustering thousands of capital track maintenance jobs (based on the defects identified in track inspection) into projects so that the projects can be scheduled in PTSP. A vehicle routing problem based model and a multiple-step heuristic algorithm were developed to solve this problem. Various side constraints such as mutual exclusion constraints and rounding constraints were considered. The proposed approach has been applied in practice and has shown good performance in both solution quality and efficiency.

Geothermal district heating networks: modelling novel operational strategies incorporating heat storage

The value of integrating a heat storage into a geothermal district heating system has been investigated. The behaviour of the system under a novel operational strategy has been simulated focusing on the energetic, economic and environmental effects of the new strategy of incorporation of the heat storage within the system. A typical geothermal district heating system consists of several production wells, a system of pipelines for the transportation of the hot water to end-users, one or more re-injection wells and peak-up devices (usually fossil-fuel boilers). Traditionally in these systems, the production wells change their production rate throughout the day according to heat demand, and if their maximum capacity is exceeded the peak-up devices are used to meet the balance of the heat demand. In this study, it is proposed to maintain a constant geothermal production and add heat storage into the network. Subsequently, hot water will be stored when heat demand is lower than the production and the stored hot water will be released into the system to cover the peak demands (or part of these). It is not intended to totally phase-out the peak-up devices, but to decrease their use, as these will often be installed anyway for back-up purposes. Both the integration of a heat storage in such a system as well as the novel operational strategy are the main novelties of this thesis. A robust algorithm for the sizing of these systems has been developed. The main inputs are the geothermal production data, the heat demand data throughout one year or more and the topology of the installation. The outputs are the sizing of the whole system, including the necessary number of production wells, the size of the heat storage and the dimensions of the pipelines amongst others. The results provide several useful insights into the initial design considerations for these systems, emphasizing particularly the importance of heat losses. Simulations are carried out for three different cases of sizing of the installation (small, medium and large) to examine the influence of system scale. In the second phase of work, two algorithms are developed which study in detail the operation of the installation throughout a random day and a whole year, respectively. The first algorithm can be a potentially powerful tool for the operators of the installation, who can know a priori how to operate the installation on a random day given the heat demand. The second algorithm is used to obtain the amount of electricity used by the pumps as well as the amount of fuel used by the peak-up boilers over a whole year. These comprise the main operational costs of the installation and are among the main inputs of the third part of the study. In the third part of the study, an integrated energetic, economic and environmental analysis of the studied installation is carried out together with a comparison with the traditional case. The results show that by implementing heat storage under the novel operational strategy, heat is generated more cheaply as all the financial indices improve, more geothermal energy is utilised and less fuel is used in the peak-up boilers, with subsequent environmental benefits, when compared to the traditional case. Furthermore, it is shown that the most attractive case of sizing is the large one, although the addition of the heat storage most greatly impacts the medium case of sizing. In other words, the geothermal component of the installation should be sized as large as possible. This analysis indicates that the proposed solution is beneficial from energetic, economic, and environmental perspectives. Therefore, it can be stated that the aim of this study is achieved in its full potential. Furthermore, the new models for the sizing, operation and economic/energetic/environmental analyses of these kind of systems can be used with few adaptations for real cases, making the practical applicability of this study evident. Having this study as a starting point, further work could include the integration of these systems with end-user demands, further analysis of component parts of the installation (such as the heat exchangers) and the integration of a heat pump to maximise utilisation of geothermal energy.

Complex network theoretical analysis on information dissemination over vehicular networks

How to enhance the communication efficiency and quality on vehicular networks is one critical important issue. While with the larger and larger scale of vehicular networks in dense cities, the real-world datasets show that the vehicular networks essentially belong to the complex network model. Meanwhile, the extensive research on complex networks has shown that the complex network theory can both provide an accurate network illustration model and further make great contributions to the network design, optimization and management. In this paper, we start with analyzing characteristics of a taxi GPS dataset and then establishing the vehicular-to-infrastructure, vehicle-to-vehicle and the hybrid communication model, respectively. Moreover, we propose a clustering algorithm for station selection, a traffic allocation optimization model and an information source selection model based on the communication performances and complex network theory.