A Salience Theory of Choice Errors

We study a psychologically based foundation for choice errors. The decision maker applies a preference ranking after forming a 'consideration set' prior to choosing an alternative. Membership of the consideration set is determined both by the alternative specific salience and by the rationality of the agent (his general propensity to consider all alternatives). The model turns out to include a logit formulation as a special case. In general, it has a rich set of implications both for exogenous parameters and for a situation in which alternatives can a¤ect their own salience (salience games). Such implications are relevant to assess the link between 'revealed' preferences and 'true' preferences: for example, less rational agents may paradoxically express their preference through choice more truthfully than more rational agents.

Colonic movements in healthy subjects as monitored by a Magnet Tracking System

Rapport de synthèse : Le Magnet Tracking System (MTS) est une technique peu invasive d'investigation de la motilité de l'entier du tube digestif. Elle repose sur le suivi de la progression d'un aimant par des senseurs externes en temps réel et dans les 3 dimensions. Dans cette étude, le MTS a été utilisé pour étudier les caractéristiques de propulsion propres aux différents segments coliques ainsi que pour comparer le transit de l'aimant permanent du MTS à celui de marqueurs radioopaques habituellement utilisés. Dix hommes et 10 femmes ayant un transit gastro-intestinal régulier ont ingéré simultanément un aimant de MTS et une capsule contenant 10 marqueurs radio-opaques, à 20h00. Les enregistrements se sont ensuite déroulés sur 2 matinées successives de 5 heures. L'analyse des données brutes recueillies a permis de réaliser une projection spatio-temporelle de la trajectoire de l'aimant dans le tube digestif ainsi qu'une description précise de l'origine, de la direction, de l'amplitude et de la vitesse des mouvements coliques. Des radiographies d'abdomen ont permis de comparer les positions respectives des marqueurs radio-opaques et de l'aimant du MTS. Durant 90% du temps d'enregistrement, l'aimant était immobile ou présentait des mouvements alternatifs de faible amplitude. Le reste des enregistrements consiste en activité propulsive dont 20% représentent des déplacements rétrogrades et une description très précise de 34 mouvements de masses. L'analyse des déplacements démontre une distribution bimodales des vitesses voisine de 1.5 et 50 cm /min, ce tant en direction orale que caudale. Deux tiers des distances parcourues le sont à vitesse rapide. L'analyse segmentaire confirme une progression horaire absolue supérieure dans le côlon gauche que droit. L'analyse détaillée par segment colique, reposant sur la description des déplacements enregistrés correspond aux rôles reconnus des différents segments, notamment de aire de stockage et de conditionnement du côlon ascendant ou de transit du côlon descendant. La comparaison des 2 sexes démontre un nombre plus important de mouvements, particulièrement de mouvements de masse chez l'homme. Les radiographies montrent une bonne corrélation entre la position de l'aimant et celle des marqueurs radio-opaques. Le MTS permet ainsi une description précise des caractéristiques propulsives des différents segments coliques, notamment par l'analyse détaillée des progressions à vitesses lente et rapide et leurs directions. Des distinctions peuvent également être notées en fonction du sexe. Ces investigations offrent de nouvelles perspectives pour l'étude des troubles de la motilité digestive.

Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.

Decision Errors, Legal Uncertainty and Welfare: a General Treatment

This paper provides a general treatment of the implications for welfare of legal uncertainty. We distinguish legal uncertainty from decision errors: though the former can be influenced by the latter, the latter are neither necessary nor sufficient for the existence of legal uncertainty. We show that an increase in decision errors will always reduce welfare. However, for any given level of decision errors, information structures involving more legal uncertainty can improve welfare. This holds always, even when there is complete legal uncertainty, when sanctions on socially harmful actions are set at their optimal level. This transforms radically one’s perception about the “costs” of legal uncertainty. We also provide general proofs for two results, previously established under restrictive assumptions. The first is that Effects-Based enforcement procedures may welfare dominate Per Se (or object-based) procedures and will always do so when sanctions are optimally set. The second is that optimal sanctions may well be higher under enforcement procedures involving more legal uncertainty.

Optimal Universal and Categorical Benefits with Classification Errors and Imperfect Enforcement

We determine he optimal combination of a universal benefit, B, and categorical benefit, C, for an economy in which individuals differ in both their ability to work - modelled as an exogenous zero quantity constraint on labour supply - and, conditional on being able to work, their productivity at work. C is targeted at those unable to work, and is conditioned in two dimensions: ex-ante an individual must be unable to work and be awarded the benefit, whilst ex-post a recipient must not subsequently work. However, the ex-ante conditionality may be imperfectly enforced due to Type I (false rejection) and Type II (false award) classification errors, whilst, in addition, the ex-post conditionality may be imperfectly enforced. If there are no classification errors - and thus no enforcement issues - it is always optimal to set C>0, whilst B=0 only if the benefit budget is sufficiently small. However, when classification errors occur, B=0 only if there are no Type I errors and the benefit budget is sufficiently small, while the conditions under which C>0 depend on the enforcement of the ex-post conditionality. We consider two discrete alternatives. Under No Enforcement C>0 only if the test administering C has some discriminatory power. In addition, social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make each type error. However, under Full Enforcement C>0 for all levels of discriminatory power. Furthermore, whilst social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make Type I errors, there are certain conditions under which it is increasing in the propensity to make Type II errors. This implies that there may be conditions under which it would be welfare enhancing to lower the chosen eligibility threshold - support the suggestion by Goodin (1985) to "err on the side of kindness".

Female residents experiencing medical errors in general internal medicine: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Doctors, especially doctors-in-training such as residents, make errors. They have to face the consequences even though today's approach to errors emphasizes systemic factors. Doctors' individual characteristics play a role in how medical errors are experienced and dealt with. The role of gender has previously been examined in a few quantitative studies that have yielded conflicting results. In the present study, we sought to qualitatively explore the experience of female residents with respect to medical errors. In particular, we explored the coping mechanisms displayed after an error. This study took place in the internal medicine department of a Swiss university hospital. METHODS: Within a phenomenological framework, semi-structured interviews were conducted with eight female residents in general internal medicine. All interviews were audiotaped, fully transcribed, and thereafter analyzed. RESULTS: Seven main themes emerged from the interviews: (1) A perception that there is an insufficient culture of safety and error; (2) The perceived main causes of errors, which included fatigue, work overload, inadequate level of competences in relation to assigned tasks, and dysfunctional communication; (3) Negative feelings in response to errors, which included different forms of psychological distress; (4) Variable attitudes of the hierarchy toward residents involved in an error; (5) Talking about the error, as the core coping mechanism; (6) Defensive and constructive attitudes toward one's own errors; and (7) Gender-specific experiences in relation to errors. Such experiences consisted in (a) perceptions that male residents were more confident and therefore less affected by errors than their female counterparts and (b) perceptions that sexist attitudes among male supervisors can occur and worsen an already painful experience. CONCLUSIONS: This study offers an in-depth account of how female residents specifically experience and cope with medical errors. Our interviews with female residents convey the sense that gender possibly influences the experience with errors, including the kind of coping mechanisms displayed. However, we acknowledge that the lack of a direct comparison between female and male participants represents a limitation while aiming to explore the role of gender.

Tracking of Stepwise Ablation of Persistent Atrial Fibrillation using Synchronization of nearby Electrogams

Intracardiac organization indices such as atrial fibril- lation (AF) cycle length (AFCL) have been used to track the efficiency of stepwise catheter ablation (step-CA) of long-standing persistent AF (pers-AF), however, with lim- ited success. The timing between nearby bipolar intracar- diac electrograms (EGMs) reflects the spatial dynamics of wavelets during AF. The extent of synchronization between EGMs is an indirect measure of AF spatial organization. The synchronization between nearby EGMs during step- CA of pers-AF was evaluated using new indices based on the cross-correlation. The first one (spar(W)) quantifies the sparseness of the cross-correlation of local activation times. The second one (OI(W)) reflects the local concen- tration around the largest peak of the cross-correlation. By computing their relative evolution during step-CA until AF termination (AF-term), we found that OI(W) appeared su- perior to AFCL and spar(W) to track the effect of step-CA "en route" to AF-term.

Type II Errors in IO Multipliers

This paper compares methods for calculating Input-Output (IO) Type II multipliers. These are formulations of the standard Leontief IO model which endogenise elements of household consumption. An analytical comparison of the two basic IO Type II multiplier methods with the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach identifies the treatment of non-wage income generated in production as a central problem. The multiplier values for each of the IO and SAM methods are calculated using Scottish data for 2009. These results can be used to choose which Type II IO multiplier to adopt where SAM multiplier values are unavailable.

Tracking cost savings from competitive tendering in the short and long run

A major initiative of the Thatcher and Major Conservative administrations was that public sector ancillary and professional services provided by incumbent direct service organisations [DSOs] be put out to tender. Analyses of this initiative, in the UK and elsewhere, found costs were often reduced in the short run. However, few if any studies went beyond the first round of tendering. We analyze data collected over successive rounds of tendering for cleaning and catering services of Scottish hospitals in order to assess the long term consequences of this initiative. The experience of the two services was very different. Cost savings for cleaning services tended to increase with each additional round of tendering and became increasingly stable. In accordance with previous results in the literature, DSOs produced smaller cost reductions than private contractors: probably an inevitable consequence of the tendering process at the time. Cost savings from DSOs tended to disappear during the first round of tendering, but they appear to have been more permanent in successive rounds. Cost savings for catering, on the other hand, tended to be much smaller, and these were not sustained.

Separation of free amino acids in human plasma by capillary electrophoresis with laser induced fluorescence: potential for emergency diagnosis of inborn errors of metabolism.

Free amino acids (AAs) in human plasma are derivatized with 3-(4-carboxybenzoyl)quinoline-2-carboxaldehyde (CBQCA) and analyzed by capillary electrophoresis (CE) with laser induced fluorescence (LIF) detection. The labeling procedure is significantly improved over results reported previously. Derivatization can be completed in 40 min, with concentrations as low as 4 x 10(-8) M successfully labeled in favourable cases. Twenty-nine AAs (including 2 internal standards) are identified and can be reproducibly separated in 70 min. Migration time RSD values for 23 of these AAs were calculated and found in the range from 0.5 to 4%. The rapid derivatization procedure and the resolution obtained in the separation are sufficient for a semi-quantitative, emergency diagnosis of several inborn errors of metabolism (IEM). Amino acid profiles for both normal donor plasma samples and plasma samples of patients suffering from phenylketonuria, tyrosinemia, maple syrup urinary disease, hyperornithinemia, and citrullinemia are studied.

Errors sintàctics del gènere gramatical durant la cirurgia de gliomes cerebrals

Les bases neurals del processament sintàctic del gènere no han estat gairebé estudiades. En aquest estudi hem utilitzat el mapeig cerebral, durant la cirurgia de gliomes cerebrals per a estudiar les estructures cortico-subcorticals implicades en el processament del gènere i determinar si aquestes són comunes a altres àrees de la producció del llenguatge. Amb l’estimulació cerebral directa hem observat alteracions sintàctiques del gènere, al estimular la circumvolució frontal inferior, la part posterior circumvolució temporal mitja, i en el nucli caudat. També hem pogut observar, una doble dissociació entre el gènere gramatical i la producció de la paraula, corroborant les teories d’un model independent en la producció del llenguatge.

Eye tracking for on-screen reading

A medida que avanza la tecnolog a, cada vez son m as comunes los libros digitales. Por eso, existen varias formas de mejorar la experiencia de lectura del usuario, como mostrar la de nici on de una palabra que resulte dif cil, o resaltar lo importante del texto cuando se pasa la vista por encima. En este proyecto, se ha investigado la base de esto con la ayuda de un Eye Tracker. Se ha implementado una clasi caci on en palabras f aciles y dif ciles dependiendo de c omo una persona lee, y una forma de saber si se est a leyendo el texto o pasando la vista por encima.

The cognitive errors and coping patterns of child molesters as assessed by external observers: a pilot study

Cognitive errors (CE) and coping strategies (CS) are the focus of most cognitive-behavioral treatments for incarcerated child molesters. Several studies have reported differences in CEs and CSs between child molesters and controls. However, the vast majority of these studies assessed cognitive errors and coping using questionnaires, which are known to present a number of important limitations. This pilot study aimed to compare the CEs and CSs of N = 17 incarcerated child abusers and N = 12 controls using observer-rated methods, namely the Cognitive Error Rating Scale (CERS; Drapeau et al., 2005) and the Coping Action Pattern Rating Scale (CAPRS; Perry, Drapeau, & Dunkley, 2005). Results showed that child molesters presented more cognitive errors, in particular positive selective abstraction, and lower coping functioning, such as escape strategies. Treatment and research implications, including the use of observer-rated methods, are discussed.