The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

Caminhos para a universalização dos serviços de água e esgotos no Brasil: a atuação das entidades reguladoras para indução da eficiência dos prestadores de serviços

The deficit of water and sewerage services is a historic problem in Brazil. The introduction of a new regulatory framework, in 2007, presented ways intending to overcome these deficits, among them, the providers efficiency improvement. This thesis aims to analyze the regulators performance regarding its ability to induce the efficiency of the Brazilian water and sewerage services providers. To this end, an analytical approach based on a sequential explanatory strategy was used, and it consists of three steps. In the first step, the Data Envelopment Analysis ( DEA ) was used to measure the providers efficiency in 2006 and 2011. The results show that the average efficiency may be considered high; however significant inefficiencies among the 29 analyzed providers were detected. The ones in the Southeast region showed better performance level and Northeast had the lowest. The local and the private providers were more efficient on average. In 2006 and 2011 the average performance was higher among non-regulated providers. In 2006 the group regulated by local agencies had the best average performance, in 2011, the best performance was the group regulated by the consortium agencies. To analyse the second step was used the Malmquist Index, it pointed that the productivity between 2006 and 2011 dropped. The analysis through decomposing Malmquist Index showed a shift of technical efficiency frontier to a lower level, however was detected a small provider s advance towards the frontier. Only the Midwest region recorded progress in overall productivity. The deterioration in the total factor productivity was higher among regional providers but the local ones and the private agencies moved quickly to the frontier level. The providers regulated from 2007 showed less decrease on the total productivity and the results of the catch up effect were more meaningful. In the last step, the regulators standardization activity analyses noted that there are agencies that had not issued rules until 2011. The most standards topics discussed in the issued rules were the tariff adjustments and the setting of general conditions for the provision and use of services; in another hand, the least covered topics were new technologies incentive and the introduction of efficiency-inducing regulatory mechanisms and productivity gains for price reviews. Regulators created from 2007 were more active proportionately. Even with the advent of the regulatory framework and the creation of new regulatory bodies, the evidence points to a reality in which the actions of these agencies have not been ensuring that providers of water and sewage, regulated by them, has achieved better performance. The non- achievement of regulatory goals can be explained by the incipient level of performance of the Brazilian regulatory authorities, which should be strengthened because of its potential contribution to the Brazilian basic sanitation department

Alternative measures of potential economic growth in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Can Latin America fly?: revising the engines of growth

Includes bibliography

Economic growth in Latin America in the late 20th century: evidence and interpretation

Includes bibliography

Economic growth in Latin America: the role of investment and other growth sources

Includes bibliography

The Latin American development problem

Includes bibliography

Long run economic development in Latin America in a comparative perspective: proximate and ultimate causes

Includes bibliography

Towards an efficient innovation policy in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Taxa de câmbio e estratégia de crescimento econômico de longo prazo da China

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Structural change in four Latin American countries: An international perspective

Incluye bibliografía.

CEPAL Review no. 114

Aspects of recent developments in the Latin American and Caribbean labour markets / Jürgen Weller .-- The earnings share of total income in Latin America, 1990-2010 / Martín Abeles, Verónica Amarante and Daniel Vega .-- Latin America: Total factor productivity and its components / Jair Andrade Araujo, Débora Gaspar Feitosa and Almir Bittencourt da Silva .-- Financial constraints on economic development: Theory and policy for developing countries / Jennifer Hermann .-- The impact of China’s incursion into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on intra-industry trade / Jorge Alberto López A., Óscar Rodil M. and Saúl Valdez G. .-- Work, family and public policy changes in Latin America: Equity, maternalism and co-responsibility / Merike Blofield and Juliana Martínez F. .-- A first approach to the impact of the real exchange rate on industrial sectors in Colombia / Lya Paola Sierra and Karina Manrique L. .-- Global integration, disarticulation and competitiveness in Mexico’s electromechanical sector: A structural analysis / Raúl Vázquez López .-- Technological capacity-building in unstable settings: Manufacturing firms in Argentina and Brazil / Anabel Marín, Lilia Stubrin and María Amelia Gibbons .-- Index of political instability in Brazil, 1889-2009 / Jaime Jordan Costantini and Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt

O efeito do fim do Acordo sobre Têxteis e Vestuários para a indústria brasileira: uma análise a partir da fronteira de produção estocástica

This article investigates the productivity and production function of thirteen large Brazilian textile and clothing companies before and after the end of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (AVT) that abolished import quotas in 2005. For this purpose, we estimate the stochastic production frontier in panel data between 1997 and 2008 and simultaneously an explanatory equation for the (in)efficiency of firms, as proposed by Battese and Coelli (1995). The results indicated that more efficient firms are the oldest. The total factor productivity of firms tended to fall, even after the end of quotas, increasing productivity only from 2007. Overall, firms from Santa Catarina were more efficient than those of other states.

L’impatto degli incentivi sull’efficienza delle imprese manifatturiere

Produttività ed efficienza sono termini comunemente utilizzati per caratterizzare l’abilità di un’impresa nell’utilizzazione delle risorse, sia in ambito privato che pubblico. Entrambi i concetti sono legati da una teoria della produzione che diventa essenziale per la determinazione dei criteri base con i quali confrontare i risultati dell’attività produttiva e i fattori impiegati per ottenerli. D’altronde, le imprese scelgono di produrre e di investire sulla base delle proprie prospettive di mercato e di costi dei fattori. Quest’ultimi possono essere influenzati dalle politiche dello Stato che fornisce incentivi e sussidi allo scopo di modificare le decisioni riguardanti l’allocazione e la crescita delle imprese. In questo caso le stesse imprese possono preferire di non collocarsi nell’equilibrio produttivo ottimo, massimizzando produttività ed efficienza, per poter invece utilizzare tali incentivi. In questo caso gli stessi incentivi potrebbero distorcere quindi l’allocazione delle risorse delle imprese che sono agevolate. L’obiettivo di questo lavoro è quello di valutare attraverso metodologie parametriche e non parametriche se incentivi erogati dalla L. 488/92, la principale politica regionale in Italia nelle regioni meridionali del paese nel periodo 1995-2004, hanno avuto o meno effetti sulla produttività totale dei fattori delle imprese agevolate. Si è condotta una ricognizione rispetto ai principali lavori proposti in letteratura riguardanti la TFP e l’aiuto alle imprese attraverso incentivi al capitale e (in parte) dell’efficienza. La stima della produttività totale dei fattori richiede di specificare una funzione di produzione ponendo l’attenzione su modelli di tipo parametrico che prevedono, quindi, la specificazione di una determinata forma funzionale relativa a variabili concernenti i fattori di produzione. Da questa si è ricavata la Total Factor Productivity utilizzata nell’analisi empirica che è la misura su cui viene valutata l’efficienza produttiva delle imprese. Il campione di aziende è dato dal merge tra i dati della L.488 e i dati di bilancio della banca dati AIDA. Si è provveduto alla stima del modello e si sono approfonditi diversi modelli per la stima della TFP; infine vengono descritti metodi non parametrici (tecniche di matching basate sul propensity score) e metodi parametrici (Diff-In-Diffs) per la valutazione dell’impatto dei sussidi al capitale. Si descrive l’analisi empirica condotta. Nella prima parte sono stati illustrati i passaggi cruciali e i risultati ottenuti a partire dalla elaborazione del dataset. Nella seconda parte, invece, si è descritta la stima del modello per la TFP e confrontate metodologie parametriche e non parametriche per valutare se la politica ha influenzato o meno il livello di TFP delle imprese agevolate.

A Comparative Study of Development Mechanisms in Korea and Taiwan: Introductory Analysis

This article is the introduction to a special issue of The Developing Economies which presented the results of a research project by the Institute of Developing Economies that examined the development mechanisms in Korea and Taiwan. Our conclusion in this article is that their development mechanisms, despite their similar development patterns of export-led industrialization, have been essentially different: a government-led mechanism in Korea as opposed to a market-led mechanism in Taiwan. We verified this difference through comparative studies of the two economies covering trade balances, the growth of total factor productivity, the scale of enterprises and business groups, and the development processes of individual manufacturing sectors. In our explanatory discussion we propose that the difference in the mechanisms is based on: 1) the amount of accumulation in the economy at the time postwar industrialization started, 2) the relationship between government and society, and 3) the mechanism of social network formation.