Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis

Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960–2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as temporally varying chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in accordance with observations for the past and expectations for the future. The ozone results are analyzed using a nonparametric additive statistical model. Comparisons are made with observations for the recent past, and the recovery of ozone, indicated by a return to 1960 and 1980 values, is investigated as a function of latitude. Although chlorine amounts are simulated to return to 1980 values by about 2050, with only weak latitudinal variations, column ozone amounts recover at different rates due to the influence of greenhouse gas changes. In the tropics, simulated peak ozone amounts occur by about 2050 and thereafter total ozone column declines. Consequently, simulated ozone does not recover to values which existed prior to the early 1980s. The results also show a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, with recovery to 1980 values in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics ahead of the chlorine return by about 20 years. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, ozone is simulated to return to 1980 levels only 10 years ahead of chlorine. In the Antarctic, annually averaged ozone recovers at about the same rate as chlorine in high latitudes and hence does not return to 1960s values until the last decade of the simulations.

Medieval foreign exchange: a time series analysis

This chapter applies rigorous statistical analysis to existing datasets of medieval exchange rates quoted in merchants’ letters sent from Barcelona, Bruges and Venice between 1380 and 1310, which survive in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato. First, it tests the exchange rates for stationarity. Second, it uses regression analysis to examine the seasonality of exchange rates at the three financial centres and compares them against contemporary descriptions by the merchant Giovanni di Antonio da Uzzano. Third, it tests for structural breaks in the exchange rate series.

Time-dependent flows in the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system

Concepts of time-dependent flow in the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system are discussed and compared with the frequently-adopted steady-state paradigm. Flows are viewed as resulting from departures of the system from equilibrium excited by dayside and nightside reconnection processes, with the flows then taking the system back towards a new equilibrium configuration. The response of the system to reconnection impulses, continuous but unbalanced reconnection and balanced steady-state reconnection are discussed in these terms. It is emphasized that in the time-dependent case the ionospheric and interplanetary electric fields are generally inductively decoupled from each other; a simple mapping of the interplanetary electric field along equipotential field lines into the ionosphere occurs only in the electrostatic steady-state case.

Unrestricted Skyrme-tensor time-dependent Hartree-Fock model and its application to the nuclear response from spherical to triaxial nuclei

The nuclear time-dependent Hartree-Fock model formulated in three-dimensional space, based on the full standard Skyrme energy density functional complemented with the tensor force, is presented. Full self-consistency is achieved by the model. The application to the isovector giant dipole resonance is discussed in the linear limit, ranging from spherical nuclei (16O and 120Sn) to systems displaying axial or triaxial deformation (24Mg, 28Si, 178Os, 190W and 238U). Particular attention is paid to the spin-dependent terms from the central sector of the functional, recently included together with the tensor. They turn out to be capable of producing a qualitative change on the strength distribution in this channel. The effect on the deformation properties is also discussed. The quantitative effects on the linear response are small and, overall, the giant dipole energy remains unaffected. Calculations are compared to predictions from the (quasi)-particle random-phase approximation and experimental data where available, finding good agreement

Time-dependent gel to gel transformation of a peptide based supramolecular gelator

A dipeptide with a long fatty acid chain at its N-terminus gives hydrogels in phosphate buffer in the pH range 7.0–8.5. The hydrogel with a gelator concentration of 0.45% (w/v) at pH 7.46 (physiological pH) provides a very good platform to study dynamic changes within a supramolecular framework as it exhibits remarkable change in its appearance with time. Interestingly, the first formed transparent hydrogel gradually transforms into a turbid gel within 2 days. These two forms of the hydrogel have been thoroughly investigated by using small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), field emission scanning electron microscopic (FE-SEM) and high-resolution transmission electron microscopic (HR-TEM) imaging, FT-IR and rheometric analyses. The SAXS and low angle PXRD studies substantiate different packing arrangements for the gelator molecules for these two different gel states (the freshly prepared and the aged hydrogel). Moreover, rheological studies of these two gels reveal that the aged gel is stiffer than the freshly prepared gel.

A Time-Series Analysis of the H alpha Emission Line in V3885 Sagitarii

Flickering is a phenomenon related to mass accretion observed among many classes of astrophysical objects. In this paper we present a study of flickering emission lines and the continuum of the cataclysmic variable V3885 Sgr. The flickering behavior was first analyzed through statistical analysis and the power spectra of lightcurves. Autocorrelation techniques were then employed to estimate the flickering timescale of flares. A cross-correlation study between the line and its underlying continuum variability is presented. The cross-correlation between the photometric and spectroscopic data is also discussed. Periodograms, calculated using emission-line data, show a behavior that is similar to those obtained from photometric datasets found in the literature, with a plateau at lower frequencies and a power-law at higher frequencies. The power-law index is consistent with stochastic events. The cross-correlation study indicates the presence of a correlation between the variability on Ha and its underlying continuum. Flickering timescales derived from the photometric data were estimated to be 25 min for two lightcurves and 10 min for one of them. The average timescales of the line flickering is 40 min, while for its underlying continuum it drops to 20 min.

Time-dependent increases in ouabain-sensitive Na(+), K(+)-ATPase activity in aortas from diabetic rats: The role of prostanoids and protein kinase C

Aims: Na(+), K(+)-ATPase activity contributes to the regulation of vascular contractility and it has been suggested that vascular Na(+), K(+)-ATPase activity may be altered during the progression of diabetes; however the mechanisms involved in the altered Na(+), K(+)-ATPase activity changes remain unclear. Thus, the aim of the present study was to evaluate ouabain-sensitive Na(+), K(+)-ATPase activity and the mechanism(s) responsible for any alterations on this activity in aortas from 1- and 4-week streptozotocin-pretreated (50 mg kg(-1), i.v.) rats. Main methods: Aortic rings were used to evaluate the relaxation induced by KCl (1-10 mM) in the presence and absence of ouabain (0.1 mmol/L) as an index of ouabain-sensitive Na(+), K(+)-ATPase activity. Protein expression of COX-2 and p-PKC-beta II in aortas were also investigated. Key findings: Ouabain-sensitive Na(+), K(+)-ATPase activity was unaltered following 1-week of streptozotocin administration, but was increased in the 4-week diabetic aorta (27%). Endothelium removal or nitric oxide synthase inhibition with L-NAME decreased ouabain-sensitive Na(+), K(+)-ATPase activity only in control aortas. In denuded aortic rings, indomethacin. NS-398, ridogrel or Go-6976 normalized ouabain-sensitive Na(+), K(+)-ATPase activity in 4-week diabetic rats. In addition, COX-2 (51%) and p-PKC-beta II (59%) protein expression were increased in 4-week diabetic aortas compared to controls. Significance: In conclusion, diabetes led to a time-dependent increase in ouabain-sensitive Na(+), K(+)-ATPase activity. The main mechanism involved in this activation is the release of TxA(2)/PGH(2) by COX-2 in smooth muscle cells, linked to activation of the PKC pathway. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical prediction of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic extrudate swell using differential and algebraic models

This study investigates the numerical simulation of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic free surface flows using the Upper-Convected Maxwell (UCM) constitutive equation and an algebraic explicit model. This investigation was carried out to develop a simplified approach that can be applied to the extrudate swell problem. The relevant physics of this flow phenomenon is discussed in the paper and an algebraic model to predict the extrudate swell problem is presented. It is based on an explicit algebraic representation of the non-Newtonian extra-stress through a kinematic tensor formed with the scaled dyadic product of the velocity field. The elasticity of the fluid is governed by a single transport equation for a scalar quantity which has dimension of strain rate. Mass and momentum conservations, and the constitutive equation (UCM and algebraic model) were solved by a three-dimensional time-dependent finite difference method. The free surface of the fluid was modeled using a marker-and-cell approach. The algebraic model was validated by comparing the numerical predictions with analytic solutions for pipe flow. In comparison with the classical UCM model, one advantage of this approach is that computational workload is substantially reduced: the UCM model employs six differential equations while the algebraic model uses only one. The results showed stable flows with very large extrudate growths beyond those usually obtained with standard differential viscoelastic models. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On ""Schwinger mechanism for gluon pair production in the presence of arbitrary time dependent chromo-electric field""

Recently the paper ""Schwinger mechanism for gluon pair production in the presence of arbitrary time dependent chromo-electric field"" by G. C. Nayak was published [Eur. Phys. J. C 59: 715, 2009; arXiv:0708.2430]. Its aim is to obtain an exact expression for the probability of non-perturbative gluon pair production per unit time per unit volume and per unit transverse momentum in an arbitrary time-dependent chromo-electric background field. We believe that the obtained expression is open to question. We demonstrate its inconsistency on some well-known examples. We think that this is a consequence of using the socalled ""shift theorem""[arXiv:hep-th/0609192] in deriving the expression for the probability. We make some critical comments on the theorem and its applicability to the problem in question.

Labile Plasma Iron Generation After Intravenous Iron is Time-dependent and Transitory in Patients Undergoing Chronic Hemodialysis

Iron supplementation in hemodialysis patients is fundamental to erythropoiesis, but may cause harmful effects. We measured oxidative stress using labile plasma iron (LPI) after parenteral iron replacement in chronic hemodialysis patients. Intravenous iron saccharate (100 mg) was administered in patients undergoing chronic hemodialysis (N = 20). LPI was measured by an oxidant-sensitive fluorescent probe at the beginning of dialysis session (T0), at 10 min (T1), 20 min (T2), and 30 min (T3) after the infusion of iron and at the subsequent session; P < 0.05 was significant. The LPI values were significantly raised according to the time of administration and were transitory: -0.02 +/- 0.20 mu mol/L at the beginning of the first session, 0.01 +/- 0.26 mu mol/L at T0, 0.03 +/- 0.23 mu mol/L at T1, 0.09 +/- 0.28 mmol/L at T2, 0.18 +/- 0.52 mmol/L at T3, and -0.02 +/- 0.16 mmol/L (P = 0.001 to 0.041) at the beginning of the second session. The LPI level in patients without iron supplementation was -0.06 +/- 0.16 mmol/L. Correlations of LPI according to time were T1, T2, and T3 vs. serum iron (P = 0.01, P = 0.007, and P = 0.0025, respectively), and T2 and T3 vs. transferrin saturation (P = 0.001 and P = 0.0003, respectively). LPI generation after intravenous saccharate administration is time-dependent and transitorily detected during hemodialysis. The LPI increment had a positive correlation to iron and transferrin saturation.

Electrochemical Control of the Time-Dependent Intensity Fluctuations in Surface-Enhanced Raman Scattering (SERS)

Time-dependent fluctuations in surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) intensities were recorded from a roughened silver electrode immersed in diluted solutions of rhodamine 6G (R6G) and congo red (CR). These fluctuations were attributed to a small number of SERS-active molecules probing regions of extremely high electromagnetic field (hot spots) at the nanostructured surface. The time-dependent distribution of SERS intensities followed a tailed statistics at certain applied potentials, which has been linked to single-molecule dynamics. The shape of the distribution was reversibly tuned by the applied voltage. Mixtures of both dyes, R6G and CR, at low concentrations were also investigated. Since R6G is a cationic dye and CR is an anionic dye, the statistics of the SERS intensity distribution of either dye in a mixture were independently controlled by adjusting the applied potential. The potential-controlled distribution of SERS intensities was interpreted by considering the modulation of the surface coverage of the adsorbed dye by the interfacial electric field. This interpretation was supported by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation that took into account the time evolution of the surface configuration of the adsorbed species and their probability to populate a hypothetical hot spot. The potential-controlled SERS dynamics reported here is a first step toward the spectroelectrochemical investigation of redox processes at the single-molecule level by SERS.

Financial time series analysis : Chaos and neurodynamics approach

This work aims at combining the Chaos theory postulates and Artificial Neural Networks classification and predictive capability, in the field of financial time series prediction. Chaos theory, provides valuable qualitative and quantitative tools to decide on the predictability of a chaotic system. Quantitative measurements based on Chaos theory, are used, to decide a-priori whether a time series, or a portion of a time series is predictable, while Chaos theory based qualitative tools are used to provide further observations and analysis on the predictability, in cases where measurements provide negative answers. Phase space reconstruction is achieved by time delay embedding resulting in multiple embedded vectors. The cognitive approach suggested, is inspired by the capability of some chartists to predict the direction of an index by looking at the price time series. Thus, in this work, the calculation of the embedding dimension and the separation, in Takens‘ embedding theorem for phase space reconstruction, is not limited to False Nearest Neighbor, Differential Entropy or other specific method, rather, this work is interested in all embedding dimensions and separations that are regarded as different ways of looking at a time series by different chartists, based on their expectations. Prior to the prediction, the embedded vectors of the phase space are classified with Fuzzy-ART, then, for each class a back propagation Neural Network is trained to predict the last element of each vector, whereas all previous elements of a vector are used as features.

Do crude oil price changes affect economic growth of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh? : A multivariate time series analysis

This paper analyzes empirically the effect of crude oil price change on the economic growth of Indian-Subcontinent (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh). We use a multivariate Vector Autoregressive analysis followed by Wald Granger causality test and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Wald Granger causality test results show that only India’s economic growth is significantly affected when crude oil price decreases. Impact of crude oil price increase is insignificantly negative for all three countries during first year. In second year, impact is negative but smaller than first year for India, negative but larger for Bangladesh and positive for Pakistan.