The Power of the Synthetic Control Method

The synthetic control method (SCM) is a new, popular method developed for the purpose of estimating the effect of an intervention when only one single unit has been exposed. Other similar, unexposed units are combined into a synthetic control unit intended to mimic the evolution in the exposed unit, had it not been subject to exposure. As the inference relies on only a single observational unit, the statistical inferential issue is a challenge. In this paper, we examine the statistical properties of the estimator, study a number of features potentially yielding uncertainty in the estimator, discuss the rationale for statistical inference in relation to SCM, and provide a Web-app for researchers to aid in their decision of whether SCM is powerful for a specific case study. We conclude that SCM is powerful with a limited number of controls in the donor pool and a fairly short pre-intervention time period. This holds as long as the parameter of interest is a parametric specification of the intervention effect, and the duration of post-intervention period is reasonably long, and the fit of the synthetic control unit to the exposed unit in the pre-intervention period is good.

Efectividad del tratamiento de lumbalgia con acupuntura

Se realizó un estudio observacional retrospectivo longitudinal en una Institución prestadora de Servicios de Salud de la ciudad de Bogotá, con el objetivo de evaluar la efectividad en el manejo del dolor de la terapia con acupuntura en el tratamiento de lumbalgia. Se tomaron 150 historias clínicas de pacientes con lumbalgia atendidos de enero de 2014 a mayo de 2016, las cuales fueron sometidas a los criterios de inclusión definidos por los autores, arrojando 48 historias sometidas a la prueba de Friedman con el fin de identificar el impacto sobre el dolor del tratamiento con acupuntura en los pacientes seleccionados. Adicionalmente, bajo un muestreo aleatorio simple de distribución normal sobre las 48 historias clínicas evaluadas, se seleccionaron 25 casos a los cuales se les aplicó una encuesta no estructurada, con el fin de obtener información sobre el estado de la patología después de finalizar el tratamiento e identificar las posibles causas de deserción. Con este estudio se concluye que la terapia con acupuntura es efectiva en el manejo del dolor de pacientes con lumbalgia, y que es necesario realizar más estudios que puedan sustentar la inclusión de la terapéutica en el manejo de esta patología.

Bagging statistical network inference from large-scale gene expression data.

Modern biology and medicine aim at hunting molecular and cellular causes of biological functions and diseases. Gene regulatory networks (GRN) inferred from gene expression data are considered an important aid for this research by providing a map of molecular interactions. Hence, GRNs have the potential enabling and enhancing basic as well as applied research in the life sciences. In this paper, we introduce a new method called BC3NET for inferring causal gene regulatory networks from large-scale gene expression data. BC3NET is an ensemble method that is based on bagging the C3NET algorithm, which means it corresponds to a Bayesian approach with noninformative priors. In this study we demonstrate for a variety of simulated and biological gene expression data from S. cerevisiae that BC3NET is an important enhancement over other inference methods that is capable of capturing biochemical interactions from transcription regulation and protein-protein interaction sensibly. An implementation of BC3NET is freely available as an R package from the CRAN repository. © 2012 de Matos Simoes, Emmert-Streib.

A Statistical Image-Based Shape Model for Visual Hull Reconstruction and 3D Structure Inference

We present a statistical image-based shape + structure model for Bayesian visual hull reconstruction and 3D structure inference. The 3D shape of a class of objects is represented by sets of contours from silhouette views simultaneously observed from multiple calibrated cameras. Bayesian reconstructions of new shapes are then estimated using a prior density constructed with a mixture model and probabilistic principal components analysis. We show how the use of a class-specific prior in a visual hull reconstruction can reduce the effect of segmentation errors from the silhouette extraction process. The proposed method is applied to a data set of pedestrian images, and improvements in the approximate 3D models under various noise conditions are shown. We further augment the shape model to incorporate structural features of interest; unknown structural parameters for a novel set of contours are then inferred via the Bayesian reconstruction process. Model matching and parameter inference are done entirely in the image domain and require no explicit 3D construction. Our shape model enables accurate estimation of structure despite segmentation errors or missing views in the input silhouettes, and works even with only a single input view. Using a data set of thousands of pedestrian images generated from a synthetic model, we can accurately infer the 3D locations of 19 joints on the body based on observed silhouette contours from real images.

Classical and causal inference approaches to statistical mediation analysis

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Inference and optimization of real edges on sparse graphs:A statistical physics perspective

Inference and optimization of real-value edge variables in sparse graphs are studied using the Bethe approximation and replica method of statistical physics. Equilibrium states of general energy functions involving a large set of real edge variables that interact at the network nodes are obtained in various cases. When applied to the representative problem of network resource allocation, efficient distributed algorithms are also devised. Scaling properties with respect to the network connectivity and the resource availability are found, and links to probabilistic Bayesian approximation methods are established. Different cost measures are considered and algorithmic solutions in the various cases are devised and examined numerically. Simulation results are in full agreement with the theory. © 2007 The American Physical Society.

Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis, 2nd edition

Now in its second edition, this book describes tools that are commonly used in transportation data analysis. The first part of the text provides statistical fundamentals while the second part presents continuous dependent variable models. With a focus on count and discrete dependent variable models, the third part features new chapters on mixed logit models, logistic regression, and ordered probability models. The last section provides additional coverage of Bayesian statistical modeling, including Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Data sets are available online to use with the modeling techniques discussed.

Approximate Bayesian computation using indirect inference

We present a novel approach for developing summary statistics for use in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithms by using indirect inference. ABC methods are useful for posterior inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function. In the indirect inference approach to ABC the parameters of an auxiliary model fitted to the data become the summary statistics. Although applicable to any ABC technique, we embed this approach within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that is completely adaptive and requires very little tuning. This methodological development was motivated by an application involving data on macroparasite population evolution modelled by a trivariate stochastic process for which there is no tractable likelihood function. The auxiliary model here is based on a beta–binomial distribution. The main objective of the analysis is to determine which parameters of the stochastic model are estimable from the observed data on mature parasite worms.

PySSM : a Python module for Bayesian inference of linear Gaussian state space models

PySSM is a Python package that has been developed for the analysis of time series using linear Gaussian state space models (SSM). PySSM is easy to use; models can be set up quickly and efficiently and a variety of different settings are available to the user. It also takes advantage of scientific libraries Numpy and Scipy and other high level features of the Python language. PySSM is also used as a platform for interfacing between optimised and parallelised Fortran routines. These Fortran routines heavily utilise Basic Linear Algebra (BLAS) and Linear Algebra Package (LAPACK) functions for maximum performance. PySSM contains classes for filtering, classical smoothing as well as simulation smoothing.

Likelihood‐free inference for transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Case study: Estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens Models and methods Data analysis and results Discussion References