National independence; or, A common-sense policy,

Employment demands protection.--Why any exclusive policy?--The free trade trap.--Protection enriched us, not free trade.--Free trade poisons patriotism.--Kill industries and commerce dies.--Theories are dangerous guides.--Industrial displacements spell ruin.--Independence the only policy.--The fatal policy of laissez faire.--"Cheap and nasty."--Our unearned increment.--Free trade a spiteful mistress.--The fertility of character.--We cultivate weakness, not strength.--Britons can manage British business.--Second markets.--The country's average wage.--If trusts, then British trusts.--Labour's true interests.--Germany and her navy.--Class-hatred is suicide.--The tax on wheat.--The little-Englander rat.--The seeds of decay.--Education and patriotism.--Intemperate legislators.--National strongholds.--Futile scheming.--The balance of power.--The suffragette among nations.--Naval warfare in the future.--Universal service.--Broken reeds.

The state of history and the empire of metaphysics [Review]

One of the curious things about this challenging book is that its ostensible subject— the Saxon medical and political scientist Hermann Conring (1606–1681)— is not mentioned in the title. Constantin Fasolt argues that we cannot know what Conring really thought or meant in his writings, which means that his topic cannot be Conring as such and must instead be that which occludes our knowledge of him, the titular limits of history. Given that we do in fact learn a good deal about Conring from Fasolt’s book, we can only hope that the decapitation of its subject will be rectified in a subsequent edition, or perhaps by the restorative work of librarians putting together subject headings. And yet Fasolt’s decision is understandable, for Conring is indeed a stalking-horse for a much bigger quarry: historiography and the historical consciousness. By “history” Fasolt understands a way of imposing intelligibility on the world, which is founded on the twin assumptions that the past is gone and unchangeable, and that the meaning of texts can be determined by placing them in their historical contexts (ix). In challenging this mode of intelligibility, Fasolt is not attempting to improve professiona history—it’s already as good as it can be—but to displace it. He regards his work as a declaration of “independence from historical consciousness” (32). At the same time, Fasolt insists that he is not simply jumping from historiography to philosophy, or attempting to preempt history with ontology (37-39). That has been tried by Nietzsche and Heidegger, who have been tainted by Nazism (Fasolt thinks unfairly). It has also been attempted by modern philosophers from Gadamer to Foucault and Charles Taylor who, in failing to address the “violence” that its mode of intelligibility does to the world, have not succeeded in outflanking history. Perhaps, Fasolt wonders, it is only the personal experience of those who have been subject to this violence—the experience of those who have been subject to historical examination—that can break the spell of history. Fasolt’s disclaimer notwithstanding, in the course of these remarks I shall argue that he is indeed jumping from history to philosophy, or attempting to outflank history by subjecting it to a particular metaphysical understanding. I shall do so in part by sketching the recent intellectual history of this move—a historical examination that I hope inflicts as little violence as possible on Fasolt’s argument.

The Beginning of the End of the Road? Britain and the European Council Meeting, 8-9 December 2011

What will the outcome of last week’s EU summit mean for the future of the UK’s position within the Union? According to Dr. Simon Green, Professor of Politics at Aston University, UK, it could spell disaster for Britain in the single market of the EU. In his essay entitled The Beginning of the End of the Road? Britain and the European Council meeting, 8/9 December 2011, originally published in Aston University’s Aston Centre for Europe blog, Dr. Green explains that Prime Minster David Cameron’s decision to exclude the UK from the EU’s new intergovernmental pact will alienate the UK from the Union more than ever before.

The role of analogy in spelling in English primary school children - a partial intervention study

The English writing system is notoriously irregular in its orthography at the phonemic level. It was therefore proposed that focusing beginner-spellers’ attention on sound-letter relations at the sub-syllabic level might improve spelling performance. This hypothesis was tested in Experiments 1 and 2 using a ‘clue word’ paradigm to investigate the effect of analogy teaching intervention / non-intervention on the spelling performance of an experimental group and controls. The results overall showed the intervention to be effective in improving spelling, and this effect to be enduring. Experiment 3 demonstrated a greater application of analogy in spelling, when clue words, which participants used in analogy to spell test words, remained in view during testing. A series of regression analyses, with spelling entered as the criterion variable and age, analogy and phonological plausibility (PP) as predictors, showed both analogy and PP to be highly predictive of spelling. Experiment 4 showed that children could use analogy to improve their spelling, even without intervention, by comparing their performance in spelling words presented in analogous categories or in random lists. Consideration of children’s patterns of analogy use at different points of development showed three age groups to use similar patterns of analogy, but contrasting analogy patterns for spelling different words. This challenges stage theories of analogy use in literacy. Overall the most salient units used in analogy were the rime and, to a slightly lesser degree, the onset-vowel and vowel. Finally, Experiment 5 showed analogy and phonology to be fairly equally influential in spelling, but analogy to be more influential than phonology in reading. Five separate experiments therefore found analogy to be highly influential in spelling. Experiment 5 also considered the role of memory and attention in literacy attainment. The important implications of this research are that analogy, rather than purely phonics-based strategy, is instrumental in correct spelling in English.

A Case Study in Crisis Management: Le Petit Gourmet Catering

The skills of crisis management are more and more valuable in the food service industry. How a manager handles a crisis can spell the difference between success and failure. Finding a good model for crisis management is difficult. The author offers a case study to introduce one such model.

Labour market turnovers among South African youths

We describe the labour market turnovers of young people using a household survey data collected from Cape Town industrial area. We measure the correlates of first unemployment duration out of school and find that matriculation and late cohort (leaving school after 2007) are related with reduced initial unemployment, yet matriculation impacts are reduced among late cohort relative to early cohort. Our estimation reveals that initial unemployment is not related with subsequent employment duration nor wage rates, but related with number of turnovers which suggests that a shorter spell is associated with more stable job tenure.

Table 2: Age information for the analyzed cores

Five plankton groups, including diatoms, radiolarians, coccolithophores, foraminifers, and dinoflagellate cysts, were synoptically analyzed in six sediment cores and two sediment traps from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea and the North Atlantic in order to provide more detailed insights into the paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic evolution and the development of plankton assemblages of the northern North Atlantic during the last 15,000 years. Based on Q-mode factor analyses, cold, warm, transitional, and relict assemblages were calculated for each of the plankton groups. Data from the different plankton groups complement one another, although they are not always consistent. However, the multiple plankton-group data set is able to bridge intervals in which single groups lack preservation or the ability to react to changes. Synoptically interpreted, the results provide a detailed picture of the response of plankton assemblages to environmental changes during the time period investigated, which includes the B0lling/Aller0d interstadial, the Younger Dryas cold spell, Termination IB, and, in all likelihood, also the "8,200 Event", and the Hypsithermal (approximately 8-4 14C ky BP).

Sea surface temperatures, alkenones and sedimentation rates at the Alboran basin

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) recorded by alkenones and oxygen isotopes in the Alboran basin are used here to describe, at an unprecedented fine temporal resolution, the present interglaciation (PIG, initiated at 11.7 ka BP), the last interglaciation (LIG, onset approximately at 129 ka) and respective deglaciations. Similarities and dissimilarities in the progression of these periods are reviewed in comparison with ice cores and stalagmites. Cold spells coeval with the Heinrich events (H) described in the North Atlantic include multi-decadal scale oscillations not previously obvious (up to 4 °C in less than eight centuries within the stadials associated with H1 and H11, ca 133 ka and 17 ka respectively). These abrupt oscillations precede the accumulation of organic rich layers deposited when perihelion moves from alignment with NH spring equinox to the summer solstice, a reference for deglaciations. Events observed during the last deglaciation at 17 ka, 14.8 ka and 11.7 ka are reminiscent of events occurred during the penultimate deglaciation at ca 136 ka, 132 ka and 129 ka, respectively. The SST trend during the PIG is no more than 2 °C (from 20 °C to 18 °C; up to ?0.2 °C/ka). The trend is steeper during the LIG, i.e. up to a 5 °C change from the early interglaciation to immediately before the glacial inception (from 23 °C to 18 °C; up to -0.4 °C/ka). Events are superimposed upon a long term trend towards colder SSTs, beginning with SST maxima followed by temperate periods until perihelion aligned with the NH autumn equinox (before ca 5.3 ka for the PIG and 121 ka for the LIG). A cold spell of around eight centuries at 2.8 ka during the PIG was possibly mimicked during the LIG at ca 118 ka by a SST fall of around 1 °C in a millennium. These events led interglacial SST to stabilise at around 18 °C. The glacial inception, barely evident at the beginning ca 115 ka (North Atlantic event C25, after perihelion passage in the NH winter solstice), culminated with a SST drop of at least 2 °C in two millennia (event C24, ca 111 ka). The Little Ice Age (0.7 ka) also occurred after the latest perihelion passage in the NH winter solstice and could be an example of how a glacial pre-inception event following an interglaciation might be.

Analysis of Poverty Dynamics in Canada (Working Paper 9)

While we know much about poverty (or “low income”) in Canada in a static context, our understanding of the underlying dynamics remains very limited. This is particularly problematic from a policy perspective and the country has been increasingly left out on an international level in this regard. The contribution of this paper is to report the results of an empirical analysis of low income (“poverty”) dynamics in Canada using the recently available “LAD” tax-based database. The paper first describes the general nature of individuals’ poverty profiles (how many are short-term versus longterm, etc.)., the breakdown of the poor population in any given year amongst these different types, and the characterisation of poverty profiles by sex and family type. It then reports the estimation of various econometric models, starting with a set which specifies entry into and exit from poverty in any given year as a function of a variety of personal attributes and situational characteristics, including family status and changes therein, province of residence, inter-provincial mobility, language, area size of residence and calendar year (to capture trend effects). A set of proper hazard models then adds duration effects to these specifications to see how exit and re-entry probabilities shift with the amount of time spent in a poverty spell or after having exited a previous spell. A final set of specifications then investigates “occurrence dependence” effects by including past poverty spells first in an entry model and then with respect to the probability of being poor in a given year. Policy implications are discussed.

CROSS-LINGUISTIC TRANSFER OF SPELLING SKILLS IN SPANISH-SPEAKING ADULT ESL LEARNERS

Spelling is an important literacy skill, and learning to spell is an important component of learning to write. Learners with strong spelling skills also exhibit greater reading, vocabulary, and orthographic knowledge than those with poor spelling skills (Ehri & Rosenthal, 2007; Ehri & Wilce, 1987; Rankin, Bruning, Timme, & Katkanant, 1993). English, being a deep orthography, has inconsistent sound-to-letter correspondences (Seymour, 2005; Ziegler & Goswami, 2005). This poses a great challenge for learners in gaining spelling fluency and accuracy. The purpose of the present study is to examine cross-linguistic transfer of English vowel spellings in Spanish-speaking adult ESL learners. The research participants were 129 Spanish-speaking adult ESL learners and 104 native English-speaking GED students enrolled in a community college located in the South Atlantic region of the United States. The adult ESL participants were in classes at three different levels of English proficiency: advanced, intermediate, and beginning. An experimental English spelling test was administered to both the native English-speaking and ESL participants. In addition, the adult ESL participants took the standardized spelling tests to rank their spelling skills in both English and Spanish. The data were analyzed using robust regression and Poisson regression procedures, Mann-Whitney test, and descriptive statistics. The study found that both Spanish spelling skills and English proficiency are strong predictors of English spelling skills. Spanish spelling is also a strong predictor of level of L1-influenced transfer. More proficient Spanish spellers made significantly fewer L1-influenced spelling errors than less proficient Spanish spellers. L1-influenced transfer of spelling knowledge from Spanish to English likely occurred in three vowel targets (/ɑɪ/ spelled as ae, ai, or ay, /ɑʊ/ spelled as au, and /eɪ/ spelled as e). The ESL participants and the native English-speaking participants produced highly similar error patterns of English vowel spellings when the errors did not indicate L1-influenced transfer, which implies that the two groups might follow similar trajectories of developing English spelling skills. The findings may help guide future researchers or practitioners to modify and develop instructional spelling intervention to meet the needs of adult ESL learners and help them gain English spelling competence.

Aplicação de redes neurais no Brasil: um estudo bibliométrico

As Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNA) simulam o cérebro humano ao coletar evidências empíricas e também ao preservar e permitir o uso do conhecimento experimental. Esta habilidade fez com que a aplicação da técnica atingisse um número cada vez maior de campos de estudo. Em meio às vantagens e desvantagens da adoção das RNA, este artigo se propõe a além de apresentar aspectos básicos das RNA e das implicações do seu uso, realizar um levantamento bibliométrico dos últimos dez anos, contemplando o termo “redes neurais” nos artigos científicos publicados na CAPES e SPELL. Os resultados foram classificados de acordo com a área de pesquisa e, especificamente quanto aos estudos de finanças, aprofundou-se em objetivo, amostra e resultados. Após o tratamento dos dados, foram encontradas 126 publicações, com aumento de 50% na quantidade de pesquisas publicadas entre o início e o final da década. Encontrou-se a seguinte ordem de relevância nas áreas de pesquisa: aplicações gerais; engenharia e manufatura; contabilidade e finanças; saúde e medicina e; marketing. Quanto aos estudos de finanças, em sua maioria os resultados foram melhores com o uso de RNA, sendo as maiores aplicações desta técnica em previsão de falências e estratégias para negociação em bolsas de valores.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

The acquisition of adjunct control: grammar and processing

This dissertation uses children’s acquisition of adjunct control as a case study to investigate grammatical and performance accounts of language acquisition. In previous research, children have consistently exhibited non-adultlike behavior for sentences with adjunct control. To explain children’s behavior, several different grammatical accounts have been proposed, but evidence for these accounts has been inconclusive. In this dissertation, I take two approaches to account for children’s errors. First, I spell out the predictions of previous grammatical accounts, and test these predictions after accounting for some methodological concerns that might have influenced children’s behavior in previous studies. While I reproduce the non-adultlike behavior observed in previous studies, the predictions of previous grammatical accounts are not borne out, suggesting that extragrammatical factors are needed to explain children’s behavior. Next, I consider the role of two different types of extragrammatical factors in predicting children’s non-adultlike behavior. With a new task designed to address the task demands in previous studies, children exhibit significantly higher accuracy than with previous tasks. This suggests that children’s behavior has been influenced by task- specific processing factors. In addition to the task, I also test the predictions of a similarity-based interference account, which links children’s errors to the same memory mechanisms involved in sentence processing difficulties observed in adults. These predictions are borne out, supporting a more continuous developmental trajectory as children’s processing mechanisms become more resistant to interference. Finally, I consider how children’s errors might influence their acquisition of adjunct control, given the distribution in the linguistic input. I discuss the results of a corpus analysis, including the possibility that adjunct control could be learned from the input. The kinds of information that could be useful to a learner become much more limited, however, after considering the processing limitations that would interfere with the representations available to the learner.

Apoio aéreo nas operações de contrassubversão

O presente Trabalho de Investigação Aplicada está subordinado ao tema “Apoio Aéreo nas Operações de Contrassubversão”. O desenvolvimento tecnológico alterou o paradigma da guerra, passando de guerra clássica ou convencional para guerra irregular. Os beligerantes dos conflitos deixaram de ser exércitos convencionais e passaram a ser milícias, grupos criminosos e organizações terroristas. O foco de atuação é redirecionado para a população em vez de componente militar do Estado opositor. Os elementos das forças irregulares provocam elevadas baixas nas tropas terrestres. Para reduzir esse número de baixas, existe uma ferramenta eficaz ao dispor das forças terrestres, apoio aéreo. O Teatro de Operações do Afeganistão envolveu vários Países na luta contra a insurgência, implicando uso de diferentes meios e táticas para combater a ameaça. Com esta investigação, pretende-se enunciar o papel do apoio aéreo nas operações de contrainsurgência no Afeganistão. A presente investigação é baseada no método de abordagem do problema indutivo, tendo como estudo de caso o Teatro de Operações do Afeganistão. Com esta investigação conclui-se, que o apoio aéreo desempenha papel fundamental no apoio à manobra terrestre. É uma ferramenta versátil e tem um tempo de resposta reduzido. Pode ser utilizado nas operações ofensivas e para garantir proteção da força nos deslocamentos. Por fim, o apoio aéreo é um elemento relevante nas operações psicológicas, uma vez que, basta a sua presença para intimidar o inimigo.

Repeated Reading Strategy for Students with Intellectual Disabilities

Repeated Reading Strategy used with Intellectually Disabled Students in order to increase reading fluency and comprehension.